nobody Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Typically we rank players siloed into positions - QB, RB, WR, TE. Then for the draft typically you need to mesh these rankings into some sort of consolidated risk which allows you to do tiers and things of that nature. The problem is that how do you weight a QB vs a TE vs a RB vs a WR when the top 20 QBs will typically outscore all the RBs. This is where the idea of positional scarcity comes in and more accurately variance across the position which put in laymen's terms means the difference between the top QB and the 12th QB is not so great that you need to prioritize taking a QB. Almost every person who has played FF for more than 1 year understands this concept. However, it seems that we rely on more of a qualitative assessment of relative positional value in lieu of a quantitative assessment. I propose here a quantitative approach to valuing players across position. Step 1. Know how many players need to be started at each position. - If you're league is 12 teams with 1 QB, 2 runningbacks, 2 wide receivers, 1 TE and a flex, you're league each week will likely start 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 30 WRs, and 12 TEs Step 2. At each position, based on projections calculate the average score among the expected starting positions + 20% for RB/WR/TE and just take the top 20 at QB becaause it's likely any of those will be used. Why +20%, most folks efficiency when starting\benching players is around 90% plus you have players on the waiver that qualify for the "THAT HELPED NO ONE" award, so the typical score won't be the average of the top X players at a position and we need to bake in some inefficiency. Adding the extra players into the calculation is also critical because it will water down the average a bit more and make players that are outliers standout more. Step 3. At each position, and for each player in the rankings, subtract the number calculated in step 2 from their projected score. This will give you that players normalized value against the entire player pool. Step 4. Consolidate all the positions and players into one list with the attached normalized value and sort largest to smallest. Note that you should expect it to see some players with negative values. That just means they are a below average contributor. These are your flex guys or your WR3s. Every team should have these guys. The point of course is to assemble a roster with the highest projected points above average. 1 Quote
nobody Posted Tuesday at 09:37 PM Author Posted Tuesday at 09:37 PM I used the FF today projections in this method with my scoring system. Note that I purposely skewed the scoring system a bit to reward people who pay attention to the scoring and understand how it effects value (made the pocket passers more valuable and combined TE and WR into one position). Player Pos Normalized Value Jahmyr Gibbs RB 109.5029412 Bijan Robinson RB 100.0029412 Puka Nacua WR/TE 96.09636364 Ja'Marr Chase WR/TE 87.29636364 Christian McCaffrey RB 80.50294118 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR/TE 73.14636364 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR/TE 72.64636364 Jonathan Taylor RB 55.60294118 James Cook RB 47.30294118 Derrick Henry RB 43.70294118 Drake London WR/TE 41.74636364 Justin Jefferson WR/TE 38.34636364 CeeDee Lamb WR/TE 31.24636364 Saquon Barkley RB 26.90294118 Chris Olave WR/TE 24.74636364 Omarion Hampton RB 24.60294118 Joe Burrow QB 24.39809524 Nico Collins WR/TE 24.14636364 A.J. Brown WR/TE 22.79636364 Kenneth Walker RB 22.50294118 Drake Maye QB 21.67142857 De'Von Achane RB 21.30294118 Brock Bowers WR/TE 20.34636364 Chase Brown RB 20.15294118 Jared Goff QB 19.27142857 Lamar Jackson QB 19.17142857 Kyren Williams RB 18.20294118 Zay Flowers WR/TE 17.14636364 Rashee Rice WR/TE 16.74636364 Trey McBride WR/TE 16.69636364 Ashton Jeanty RB 16.40294118 Josh Allen QB 16.09142857 Dak Prescott QB 15.33809524 Jameson Williams WR/TE 15.29636364 George Pickens WR/TE 14.49636364 Garrett Wilson WR/TE 14.29636364 Jeremiyah Love RB 14.00294118 Malik Nabers WR/TE 13.74636364 Matthew Stafford QB 12.79142857 DeVonta Smith WR/TE 12.74636364 Davante Adams WR/TE 12.39636364 Emeka Egbuka WR/TE 9.896363636 Tetairoa McMillan WR/TE 7.396363636 Caleb Williams QB 7.284761905 Jayden Daniels QB 6.578095238 Breece Hall RB 6.352941176 Javonte Williams RB 4.652941176 Justin Herbert QB 2.024761905 Bo Nix QB 1.778095238 Brock Purdy QB 1.371428571 Cam Skattebo RB 0.502941176 Christian Watson WR/TE 0.246363636 Tee Higgins WR/TE -1.353636364 Mike Evans WR/TE -1.453636364 D.J. Moore WR/TE -2.453636364 Rome Odunze WR/TE -3.453636364 Jaylen Waddle WR/TE -3.503636364 Ladd McConkey WR/TE -5.603636364 Bhayshul Tuten RB -6.097058824 Luther Burden III WR/TE -6.803636364 Patrick Mahomes QB -8.848571429 DK Metcalf WR/TE -9.053636364 D'Andre Swift RB -9.647058824 Travis Etienne RB -9.997058824 Terry McLaurin WR/TE -10.25363636 Trevor Lawrence QB -10.40190476 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR/TE -10.90363636 Kyler Murray QB -12.30857143 Courtland Sutton WR/TE -13.65363636 Sam Darnold QB -16.22190476 Bucky Irving RB -16.39705882 Colston Loveland WR/TE -17.15363636 Baker Mayfield QB -17.32190476 Tyler Shough QB -17.68190476 Quinshon Judkins RB -18.09705882 Alec Pierce WR/TE -19.50363636 Michael Pittman Jr. WR/TE -19.50363636 Jalen Hurts QB -19.9152381 Jordan Love QB -21.18190476 Jayden Reed WR/TE -21.40363636 Tyler Warren WR/TE -23.10363636 Carnell Tate WR/TE -23.25363636 Jaxson Dart QB -23.88857143 Harold Fannin Jr. WR/TE -26.85363636 Kyle Pitts WR/TE -27.60363636 Parker Washington WR/TE -29.30363636 Jakobi Meyers WR/TE -29.35363636 David Montgomery RB -29.49705882 Tony Pollard RB -30.69705882 Xavier Worthy WR/TE -30.85363636 Brian Thomas Jr. WR/TE -31.00363636 Chris Godwin WR/TE -31.30363636 Jaylen Warren RB -33.34705882 Michael Wilson WR/TE -33.50363636 Jordan Addison WR/TE -33.65363636 Stefon Diggs WR/TE -34.10363636 Romeo Doubs WR/TE -35.80363636 Sam LaPorta WR/TE -36.45363636 Travis Kelce WR/TE -36.85363636 Quentin Johnston WR/TE -37.00363636 Khalil Shakir WR/TE -37.60363636 TreVeyon Henderson RB -38.09705882 Wan'Dale Robinson WR/TE -39.35363636 Rhamondre Stevenson RB -39.44705882 Tucker Kraft WR/TE -39.55363636 Mark Andrews WR/TE -40.45363636 Jadarian Price RB -41.84705882 Matthew Golden WR/TE -42.50363636 J.K. Dobbins RB -42.69705882 Dallas Goedert WR/TE -43.20363636 Daniel Jones QB -43.26857143 Josh Downs WR/TE -44.50363636 Malik Willis QB -44.72190476 KC Concepcion WR/TE -46.10363636 George Kittle WR/TE -46.45363636 C.J. Stroud QB -46.76190476 MarShawn Lloyd RB -47.24705882 Dalton Kincaid WR/TE -48.70363636 Rashid Shaheed WR/TE -49.55363636 Jake Ferguson WR/TE -49.95363636 Hunter Henry WR/TE -50.05363636 Makai Lemon WR/TE -50.50363636 De'Zhaun Stribling WR/TE -50.50363636 Chuba Hubbard RB -50.89705882 Isaiah Likely WR/TE -52.60363636 Aaron Rodgers QB -55.12857143 Juwan Johnson WR/TE -55.60363636 Pat Freiermuth WR/TE -56.35363636 Bryce Young QB -56.48857143 Jordyn Tyson WR/TE -56.65363636 Dalton Schultz WR/TE -56.85363636 Greg Dulcich WR/TE -58.10363636 Geno Smith QB -58.46190476 Tre Tucker WR/TE -59.70363636 Deebo Samuel WR/TE -59.95363636 Rico Dowdle RB -59.99705882 Jerry Jeudy WR/TE -60.95363636 Cam Ward QB -61.74190476 Brenton Strange WR/TE -62.35363636 Jalen Coker WR/TE -63.60363636 Rashod Bateman WR/TE -64.00363636 Jacoby Brissett QB -65.32190476 Rachaad White RB -66.49705882 T.J. Hockenson WR/TE -66.65363636 Terrance Ferguson WR/TE -66.70363636 Jalen McMillan WR/TE -66.95363636 Keenan Allen WR/TE -67.85363636 AJ Barner WR/TE -68.30363636 Calvin Ridley WR/TE -71.65363636 Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB -71.69705882 Cade Otton WR/TE -72.45363636 Chigoziem Okonkwo WR/TE -72.80363636 Germie Bernard WR/TE -73.25363636 Adonai Mitchell WR/TE -75.00363636 Jalen Nailor WR/TE -75.50363636 Evan Engram WR/TE -75.55363636 Mike Gesicki WR/TE -76.45363636 Malik Washington WR/TE -77.35363636 Jonathon Brooks RB -78.39705882 Kyle Monangai RB -81.19705882 Blake Corum RB -81.24705882 Gunnar Helm WR/TE -81.45363636 Ryan Flournoy WR/TE -81.50363636 Jordan Mason RB -81.59705882 Denzel Boston WR/TE -81.60363636 Caleb Douglas WR/TE -82.00363636 Darren Waller WR/TE -82.25363636 Jauan Jennings WR/TE -82.35363636 Kenneth Gainwell RB -83.24705882 Mason Taylor WR/TE -83.60363636 Aaron Jones RB -83.64705882 Devaughn Vele WR/TE -84.30363636 Cooper Kupp WR/TE -84.70363636 Michael Mayer WR/TE -85.45363636 Xavier Legette WR/TE -86.00363636 Isaac TeSlaa WR/TE -86.20363636 RJ Harvey RB -86.99705882 Darius Slayton WR/TE -87.85363636 Oronde Gadsden WR/TE -88.30363636 Kenyon Sadiq WR/TE -88.95363636 David Njoku WR/TE -90.05363636 Jaylin Noel WR/TE -90.20363636 Dontayvion Wicks WR/TE -91.10363636 Kayshon Boutte WR/TE -91.85363636 Cole Kmet WR/TE -92.05363636 Antonio Williams WR/TE -92.65363636 Ja'Kobi Lane WR/TE -93.30363636 KaVontae Turpin WR/TE -93.65363636 Tre Harris WR/TE -94.70363636 Omar Cooper Jr. WR/TE -95.70363636 Josh Jacobs RB -95.84705882 Travis Hunter WR/TE -96.60363636 Jalen Tolbert WR/TE -97.10363636 Tyquan Thornton WR/TE -97.45363636 Pat Bryant WR/TE -97.85363636 Xavier Hutchinson WR/TE -98.35363636 Dawson Knox WR/TE -98.80363636 Dyami Brown WR/TE -99.25363636 Olamide Zaccheaus WR/TE -99.25363636 Colby Parkinson WR/TE -100.3536364 Malachi Fields WR/TE -102.2036364 Andrei Iosivas WR/TE -102.3536364 Demario Douglas WR/TE -102.7036364 Jack Bech WR/TE -103.3536364 Woody Marks RB -105.0470588 Alvin Kamara RB -105.0970588 1 1 Quote
nobody Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM Author Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM I ran a scenario where WR and TE were separated and according to the numbers Bowers and McBride should be first rounders! That's due to the fact that FFToday projects them so far ahead of TE3-TE15. FFtoday basically projects a 3 pt advantage per game over the season on average vs everyone with those two guys. Player Pos Normalized Value Jahmyr Gibbs RB 109.5029412 Bijan Robinson RB 100.0029412 Puka Nacua WR 96.004 Ja'Marr Chase WR 87.204 Christian McCaffrey RB 80.50294118 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 73.054 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 72.554 Jonathan Taylor RB 55.60294118 Brock Bowers TE 53.14411765 Trey McBride TE 49.49411765 James Cook RB 47.30294118 Derrick Henry RB 43.70294118 Drake London WR 41.654 Justin Jefferson WR 38.254 CeeDee Lamb WR 31.154 Saquon Barkley RB 26.90294118 Chris Olave WR 24.654 Omarion Hampton RB 24.60294118 Joe Burrow QB 24.39809524 Nico Collins WR 24.054 A.J. Brown WR 22.704 Kenneth Walker RB 22.50294118 Drake Maye QB 21.67142857 De'Von Achane RB 21.30294118 Chase Brown RB 20.15294118 Jared Goff QB 19.27142857 Lamar Jackson QB 19.17142857 Kyren Williams RB 18.20294118 Zay Flowers WR 17.054 Rashee Rice WR 16.654 Ashton Jeanty RB 16.40294118 Josh Allen QB 16.09142857 Colston Loveland TE 15.64411765 Dak Prescott QB 15.33809524 Jameson Williams WR 15.204 George Pickens WR 14.404 Garrett Wilson WR 14.204 Jeremiyah Love RB 14.00294118 Malik Nabers WR 13.654 Matthew Stafford QB 12.79142857 DeVonta Smith WR 12.654 Davante Adams WR 12.304 Emeka Egbuka WR 9.804 Tyler Warren TE 9.694117647 Tetairoa McMillan WR 7.304 Caleb Williams QB 7.284761905 Jayden Daniels QB 6.578095238 Breece Hall RB 6.352941176 Harold Fannin Jr. TE 5.944117647 Kyle Pitts TE 5.194117647 Javonte Williams RB 4.652941176 Justin Herbert QB 2.024761905 Bo Nix QB 1.778095238 Brock Purdy QB 1.371428571 Cam Skattebo RB 0.502941176 Christian Watson WR 0.154 Tee Higgins WR -1.446 Mike Evans WR -1.546 D.J. Moore WR -2.546 Rome Odunze WR -3.546 Jaylen Waddle WR -3.596 Sam LaPorta TE -3.655882353 Travis Kelce TE -4.055882353 Ladd McConkey WR -5.696 Bhayshul Tuten RB -6.097058824 Tucker Kraft TE -6.755882353 Luther Burden III WR -6.896 Mark Andrews TE -7.655882353 Patrick Mahomes QB -8.848571429 DK Metcalf WR -9.146 D'Andre Swift RB -9.647058824 Travis Etienne RB -9.997058824 Terry McLaurin WR -10.346 Trevor Lawrence QB -10.40190476 Dallas Goedert TE -10.40588235 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR -10.996 Kyler Murray QB -12.30857143 George Kittle TE -13.65588235 Courtland Sutton WR -13.746 Dalton Kincaid TE -15.90588235 Sam Darnold QB -16.22190476 Bucky Irving RB -16.39705882 Jake Ferguson TE -17.15588235 Hunter Henry TE -17.25588235 Baker Mayfield QB -17.32190476 Tyler Shough QB -17.68190476 Quinshon Judkins RB -18.09705882 Alec Pierce WR -19.596 Michael Pittman Jr. WR -19.596 Isaiah Likely TE -19.80588235 Jalen Hurts QB -19.9152381 Jordan Love QB -21.18190476 Jayden Reed WR -21.496 Juwan Johnson TE -22.80588235 Carnell Tate WR -23.346 Pat Freiermuth TE -23.55588235 Jaxson Dart QB -23.88857143 Dalton Schultz TE -24.05588235 Greg Dulcich TE -25.30588235 Parker Washington WR -29.396 Jakobi Meyers WR -29.446 David Montgomery RB -29.49705882 Brenton Strange TE -29.55588235 Tony Pollard RB -30.69705882 Xavier Worthy WR -30.946 Brian Thomas Jr. WR -31.096 Chris Godwin WR -31.396 Jaylen Warren RB -33.34705882 Michael Wilson WR -33.596 Jordan Addison WR -33.746 T.J. Hockenson TE -33.85588235 Terrance Ferguson TE -33.90588235 Stefon Diggs WR -34.196 AJ Barner TE -35.50588235 Romeo Doubs WR -35.896 Quentin Johnston WR -37.096 Khalil Shakir WR -37.696 TreVeyon Henderson RB -38.09705882 Wan'Dale Robinson WR -39.446 Rhamondre Stevenson RB -39.44705882 Cade Otton TE -39.65588235 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE -40.00588235 Jadarian Price RB -41.84705882 Matthew Golden WR -42.596 J.K. Dobbins RB -42.69705882 Evan Engram TE -42.75588235 Daniel Jones QB -43.26857143 Mike Gesicki TE -43.65588235 Josh Downs WR -44.596 Malik Willis QB -44.72190476 KC Concepcion WR -46.196 C.J. Stroud QB -46.76190476 MarShawn Lloyd RB -47.24705882 Gunnar Helm TE -48.65588235 Darren Waller TE -49.45588235 Rashid Shaheed WR -49.646 Makai Lemon WR -50.596 De'Zhaun Stribling WR -50.596 Mason Taylor TE -50.80588235 Chuba Hubbard RB -50.89705882 Michael Mayer TE -52.65588235 Aaron Rodgers QB -55.12857143 Oronde Gadsden TE -55.50588235 Kenyon Sadiq TE -56.15588235 Bryce Young QB -56.48857143 Jordyn Tyson WR -56.746 David Njoku TE -57.25588235 Geno Smith QB -58.46190476 Cole Kmet TE -59.25588235 Tre Tucker WR -59.796 Rico Dowdle RB -59.99705882 Deebo Samuel WR -60.046 Jerry Jeudy WR -61.046 Cam Ward QB -61.74190476 Jalen Coker WR -63.696 Rashod Bateman WR -64.096 Jacoby Brissett QB -65.32190476 Dawson Knox TE -66.00588235 Rachaad White RB -66.49705882 Jalen McMillan WR -67.046 Colby Parkinson TE -67.55588235 Keenan Allen WR -67.946 Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB -71.69705882 Calvin Ridley WR -71.746 Germie Bernard WR -73.346 Darnell Washington TE -75.00588235 Adonai Mitchell WR -75.096 Jalen Nailor WR -75.596 Theo Johnson TE -77.20588235 Malik Washington WR -77.446 Jonathon Brooks RB -78.39705882 Jake Tonges TE -78.65588235 Noah Fant TE -79.15588235 Kyle Monangai RB -81.19705882 Blake Corum RB -81.24705882 Austin Hooper TE -81.40588235 Ryan Flournoy WR -81.596 Jordan Mason RB -81.59705882 Denzel Boston WR -81.696 Caleb Douglas WR -82.096 Jauan Jennings WR -82.446 Noah Gray TE -82.50588235 Tyler Higbee TE -82.80588235 Kenneth Gainwell RB -83.24705882 Aaron Jones RB -83.64705882 Elijah Arroyo TE -84.05588235 Devaughn Vele WR -84.396 Tommy Tremble TE -84.40588235 Cooper Kupp WR -84.796 Xavier Legette WR -86.096 Isaac TeSlaa WR -86.296 RJ Harvey RB -86.99705882 Darius Slayton WR -87.946 Josh Oliver TE -88.35588235 Luke Musgrave TE -89.75588235 Jaylin Noel WR -90.296 Dontayvion Wicks WR -91.196 Charlie Kolar TE -91.25588235 Kayshon Boutte WR -91.946 Antonio Williams WR -92.746 Ja'Kobi Lane WR -93.396 KaVontae Turpin WR -93.746 Tre Harris WR -94.796 Omar Cooper Jr. WR -95.796 Josh Jacobs RB -95.84705882 Travis Hunter WR -96.696 1 Quote
Ray_T Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM 6 minutes ago, nobody said: I used the FF today projections in this method with my scoring system. I purposely skewed the scoring system a bit to reward people who pay attention to the scoring and understand how it effects value (made the pocket passers more valuable and combined TE and WR into one position). Player Pos Normalized Value Jahmyr Gibbs RB 109.5029412 Bijan Robinson RB 100.0029412 Puka Nacua WR/TE 96.09636364 Ja'Marr Chase WR/TE 87.29636364 Christian McCaffrey RB 80.50294118 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR/TE 73.14636364 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR/TE 72.64636364 Jonathan Taylor RB 55.60294118 James Cook RB 47.30294118 Derrick Henry RB 43.70294118 Drake London WR/TE 41.74636364 Justin Jefferson WR/TE 38.34636364 CeeDee Lamb WR/TE 31.24636364 Saquon Barkley RB 26.90294118 Chris Olave WR/TE 24.74636364 Omarion Hampton RB 24.60294118 Joe Burrow QB 24.39809524 Nico Collins WR/TE 24.14636364 A.J. Brown WR/TE 22.79636364 Kenneth Walker RB 22.50294118 Drake Maye QB 21.67142857 De'Von Achane RB 21.30294118 Brock Bowers WR/TE 20.34636364 Chase Brown RB 20.15294118 Jared Goff QB 19.27142857 Lamar Jackson QB 19.17142857 Kyren Williams RB 18.20294118 Zay Flowers WR/TE 17.14636364 Rashee Rice WR/TE 16.74636364 Trey McBride WR/TE 16.69636364 Ashton Jeanty RB 16.40294118 Josh Allen QB 16.09142857 Dak Prescott QB 15.33809524 Jameson Williams WR/TE 15.29636364 George Pickens WR/TE 14.49636364 Garrett Wilson WR/TE 14.29636364 Jeremiyah Love RB 14.00294118 Malik Nabers WR/TE 13.74636364 Matthew Stafford QB 12.79142857 DeVonta Smith WR/TE 12.74636364 Davante Adams WR/TE 12.39636364 Emeka Egbuka WR/TE 9.896363636 Tetairoa McMillan WR/TE 7.396363636 Caleb Williams QB 7.284761905 Jayden Daniels QB 6.578095238 Breece Hall RB 6.352941176 Javonte Williams RB 4.652941176 Justin Herbert QB 2.024761905 Bo Nix QB 1.778095238 Brock Purdy QB 1.371428571 Cam Skattebo RB 0.502941176 Christian Watson WR/TE 0.246363636 Tee Higgins WR/TE -1.353636364 Mike Evans WR/TE -1.453636364 D.J. Moore WR/TE -2.453636364 Rome Odunze WR/TE -3.453636364 Jaylen Waddle WR/TE -3.503636364 Ladd McConkey WR/TE -5.603636364 Bhayshul Tuten RB -6.097058824 Luther Burden III WR/TE -6.803636364 Patrick Mahomes QB -8.848571429 DK Metcalf WR/TE -9.053636364 D'Andre Swift RB -9.647058824 Travis Etienne RB -9.997058824 Terry McLaurin WR/TE -10.25363636 Trevor Lawrence QB -10.40190476 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR/TE -10.90363636 Kyler Murray QB -12.30857143 Courtland Sutton WR/TE -13.65363636 Sam Darnold QB -16.22190476 Bucky Irving RB -16.39705882 Colston Loveland WR/TE -17.15363636 Baker Mayfield QB -17.32190476 Tyler Shough QB -17.68190476 Quinshon Judkins RB -18.09705882 Alec Pierce WR/TE -19.50363636 Michael Pittman Jr. WR/TE -19.50363636 Jalen Hurts QB -19.9152381 Jordan Love QB -21.18190476 Jayden Reed WR/TE -21.40363636 Tyler Warren WR/TE -23.10363636 Carnell Tate WR/TE -23.25363636 Jaxson Dart QB -23.88857143 Harold Fannin Jr. WR/TE -26.85363636 Kyle Pitts WR/TE -27.60363636 Parker Washington WR/TE -29.30363636 Jakobi Meyers WR/TE -29.35363636 David Montgomery RB -29.49705882 Tony Pollard RB -30.69705882 Xavier Worthy WR/TE -30.85363636 Brian Thomas Jr. WR/TE -31.00363636 Chris Godwin WR/TE -31.30363636 Jaylen Warren RB -33.34705882 Michael Wilson WR/TE -33.50363636 Jordan Addison WR/TE -33.65363636 Stefon Diggs WR/TE -34.10363636 Romeo Doubs WR/TE -35.80363636 Sam LaPorta WR/TE -36.45363636 Travis Kelce WR/TE -36.85363636 Quentin Johnston WR/TE -37.00363636 Khalil Shakir WR/TE -37.60363636 TreVeyon Henderson RB -38.09705882 Wan'Dale Robinson WR/TE -39.35363636 Rhamondre Stevenson RB -39.44705882 Tucker Kraft WR/TE -39.55363636 Mark Andrews WR/TE -40.45363636 Jadarian Price RB -41.84705882 Matthew Golden WR/TE -42.50363636 J.K. Dobbins RB -42.69705882 Dallas Goedert WR/TE -43.20363636 Daniel Jones QB -43.26857143 Josh Downs WR/TE -44.50363636 Malik Willis QB -44.72190476 KC Concepcion WR/TE -46.10363636 George Kittle WR/TE -46.45363636 C.J. Stroud QB -46.76190476 MarShawn Lloyd RB -47.24705882 Dalton Kincaid WR/TE -48.70363636 Rashid Shaheed WR/TE -49.55363636 Jake Ferguson WR/TE -49.95363636 Hunter Henry WR/TE -50.05363636 Makai Lemon WR/TE -50.50363636 De'Zhaun Stribling WR/TE -50.50363636 Chuba Hubbard RB -50.89705882 Isaiah Likely WR/TE -52.60363636 Aaron Rodgers QB -55.12857143 Juwan Johnson WR/TE -55.60363636 Pat Freiermuth WR/TE -56.35363636 Bryce Young QB -56.48857143 Jordyn Tyson WR/TE -56.65363636 Dalton Schultz WR/TE -56.85363636 Greg Dulcich WR/TE -58.10363636 Geno Smith QB -58.46190476 Tre Tucker WR/TE -59.70363636 Deebo Samuel WR/TE -59.95363636 Rico Dowdle RB -59.99705882 Jerry Jeudy WR/TE -60.95363636 Cam Ward QB -61.74190476 Brenton Strange WR/TE -62.35363636 Jalen Coker WR/TE -63.60363636 Rashod Bateman WR/TE -64.00363636 Jacoby Brissett QB -65.32190476 Rachaad White RB -66.49705882 T.J. Hockenson WR/TE -66.65363636 Terrance Ferguson WR/TE -66.70363636 Jalen McMillan WR/TE -66.95363636 Keenan Allen WR/TE -67.85363636 AJ Barner WR/TE -68.30363636 Calvin Ridley WR/TE -71.65363636 Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB -71.69705882 Cade Otton WR/TE -72.45363636 Chigoziem Okonkwo WR/TE -72.80363636 Germie Bernard WR/TE -73.25363636 Adonai Mitchell WR/TE -75.00363636 Jalen Nailor WR/TE -75.50363636 Evan Engram WR/TE -75.55363636 Mike Gesicki WR/TE -76.45363636 Malik Washington WR/TE -77.35363636 Jonathon Brooks RB -78.39705882 Kyle Monangai RB -81.19705882 Blake Corum RB -81.24705882 Gunnar Helm WR/TE -81.45363636 Ryan Flournoy WR/TE -81.50363636 Jordan Mason RB -81.59705882 Denzel Boston WR/TE -81.60363636 Caleb Douglas WR/TE -82.00363636 Darren Waller WR/TE -82.25363636 Jauan Jennings WR/TE -82.35363636 Kenneth Gainwell RB -83.24705882 Mason Taylor WR/TE -83.60363636 Aaron Jones RB -83.64705882 Devaughn Vele WR/TE -84.30363636 Cooper Kupp WR/TE -84.70363636 Michael Mayer WR/TE -85.45363636 Xavier Legette WR/TE -86.00363636 Isaac TeSlaa WR/TE -86.20363636 RJ Harvey RB -86.99705882 Darius Slayton WR/TE -87.85363636 Oronde Gadsden WR/TE -88.30363636 Kenyon Sadiq WR/TE -88.95363636 David Njoku WR/TE -90.05363636 Jaylin Noel WR/TE -90.20363636 Dontayvion Wicks WR/TE -91.10363636 Kayshon Boutte WR/TE -91.85363636 Cole Kmet WR/TE -92.05363636 Antonio Williams WR/TE -92.65363636 Ja'Kobi Lane WR/TE -93.30363636 KaVontae Turpin WR/TE -93.65363636 Tre Harris WR/TE -94.70363636 Omar Cooper Jr. WR/TE -95.70363636 Josh Jacobs RB -95.84705882 Travis Hunter WR/TE -96.60363636 Jalen Tolbert WR/TE -97.10363636 Tyquan Thornton WR/TE -97.45363636 Pat Bryant WR/TE -97.85363636 Xavier Hutchinson WR/TE -98.35363636 Dawson Knox WR/TE -98.80363636 Dyami Brown WR/TE -99.25363636 Olamide Zaccheaus WR/TE -99.25363636 Colby Parkinson WR/TE -100.3536364 Malachi Fields WR/TE -102.2036364 Andrei Iosivas WR/TE -102.3536364 Demario Douglas WR/TE -102.7036364 Jack Bech WR/TE -103.3536364 Woody Marks RB -105.0470588 Alvin Kamara RB -105.0970588 This actually jives with my calculations. at a handful of points in the draft I check to see at what point you should be taking a RB vs a WR. This year I've determined that outside of certain parts of round 1 the general rule is that if more WR are off the board than RB, you need to take a RB (and vice versa) your ranking system actually supports my theory. but you've just quantified it a bit more with math. (which is fine) generally at most points in your ranking the # of RB off the board is roughly equal to the # of WR. so if you are picking at the end of round 1 and there are 8 WR off the board, RB is the way to go. if there are 8 RB off the board, you likely wanna go WR. I am a bit surprised that Josh Allen is ranked so low compared to the other QB. trying to wrap my head around that one, but otherwise this looks pretty solid 1 Quote
nobody Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Author Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM 5 minutes ago, Ray_T said: I am a bit surprised that Josh Allen is ranked so low compared to the other QB. trying to wrap my head around that one, but otherwise this looks pretty solid It's my scoring system which gives 1 pt for 25 yards passing and 5 pts for passing TDs. That knocks down rushing QBs a lot. I do stuff like that on purpose because I want to mess with the people that just grab some site's rankings and don't think about the scoring. 1 Quote
Ray_T Posted Tuesday at 09:59 PM Posted Tuesday at 09:59 PM 3 minutes ago, nobody said: It's my scoring system which gives 1 pt for 25 yards passing and 5 pts for passing TDs. That knocks down rushing QBs a lot. I do stuff like that on purpose because I want to mess with the people that just grab some site's rankings and don't think about the scoring. fair enough. thats my bad for not noticing. lol Quote
JagFan Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM 4 hours ago, nobody said: Typically we rank players siloed into positions - QB, RB, WR, TE. Then for the draft typically you need to mesh these rankings into some sort of consolidated risk which allows you to do tiers and things of that nature. The problem is that how do you weight a QB vs a TE vs a RB vs a WR when the top 20 QBs will typically outscore all the RBs. This is where the idea of positional scarcity comes in and more accurately variance across the position which put in laymen's terms means the difference between the top QB and the 12th QB is not so great that you need to prioritize taking a QB. Almost every person who has played FF for more than 1 year understands this concept. However, it seems that we rely on more of a qualitative assessment of relative positional value in lieu of a quantitative assessment. I propose here a quantitative approach to valuing players across position. Step 1. Know how many players need to be started at each position. - If you're league is 12 teams with 1 QB, 2 runningbacks, 2 wide receivers, 1 TE and a flex, you're league each week will likely start 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 30 WRs, and 12 TEs Step 2. At each position, based on projections calculate the average score among the expected starting positions + 20% for RB/WR/TE and just take the top 20 at QB becaause it's likely any of those will be used. Why +20%, most folks efficiency when starting\benching players is around 90% plus you have players on the waiver that qualify for the "THAT HELPED NO ONE" award, so the typical score won't be the average of the top X players at a position and we need to bake in some inefficiency. Adding the extra players into the calculation is also critical because it will water down the average a bit more and make players that are outliers standout more. Step 3. At each position, and for each player in the rankings, subtract the number calculated in step 2 from their projected score. This will give you that players normalized value against the entire player pool. Step 4. Consolidate all the positions and players into one list with the attached normalized value and sort largest to smallest. Note that you should expect it to see some players with negative values. That just means they are a below average contributor. These are your flex guys or your WR3s. Every team should have these guys. The point of course is to assemble a roster with the highest projected points above average. I mean no disrespect, but this is value based drafting that was being used 20+ years ago. You assign your projected points for each player based on your exact scoring system. Then you take the “zero player” at each position…that would be assigned to the last player in your ranking that makes up the number of starters on each roster like so: 10 team league, start 1 QB, so QB 10 in your rankings is assigned a value of 0…12 team league, start 2 RBs, so RB 24 is assigned a value of 0…10 team, start 3 WR, WR 30 gets 0…etc etc. Then you take your projected points for each player, subtract the projected points of your “zero” player from their projected points at their position and you get the “positive point differential” of each player from the last starter at that position. Then you rank everyone (regardless of position) based on their projected point value against their position. Quote
nobody Posted Wednesday at 02:38 AM Author Posted Wednesday at 02:38 AM Nah. Mine is a clear improvement. I'm calling the patent office. 1 Quote
The PosterFormerlyKnownAs Posted Wednesday at 11:03 AM Posted Wednesday at 11:03 AM Nobody is using that system. Nobody. 1 Quote
HOOKIN' BULL Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM 14 hours ago, nobody said: Nah. Mine is a clear improvement. I'm calling the patent office. Pretty sure it already has a patent. I started doing something similar in the mid-90's. It will allow you to compare apples to oranges (most valuable of QB-RB-WR-TE-DST-K). Get the median projections for the season of the starters of each position. In a 14 team with 1-QB -- 2WR -- 1RB -- 1TE - 1Flex - 1 DST - 1K. get the average "starter" projection for your top projections on your draft list for 14QB -- about 32WR -- about 24 RB -- 14TE -- 14DST -- 14K. It will tell you let's say in round 8 which player has the most value. In Kelce's prime he would be worth about 1 1/2 starting TE's. I read somewhere a few years ago, that somebody had patented something similar to this. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.