Axe Elf Guides Your Draft
Axe Elf's commentary on every player, listed by RTSports ADP.
Round One
1.04 Christian McCaffrey
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
The chances of the consensus #1 pick finishing the season as the #1 performer are pretty slim. It would be hard not to take CMC among the top 3 players off the board, but Henry and Zeke are both more likely to return #1 overall performance. 2.08 Dalvin Cook
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
With a 17 game season this year, Cook owners will be without him for an extra week, once he makes his perennial early exit, stiffing his owners for their playoff run. For as long as he's healthy, he's an advantage--but you can't count on him to be around at the end of the year. 3.85 Alvin Kamara
Æ™ Rating: About Right
4th overall is kind of a toss-up between Cook and Kamara--do you risk the early exit, or the Breesless offense? But you should definitely be thinking about Kamara by the 5th overall pick, so an ADP of 4ish is About Right. 4.74 Derrick Henry
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
Henry has the best chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season, and as such, he deserves to be the overall #1 pick. Getting him any later than that is stealing. 5.79 Ezekiel Elliott
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
By the same token, the player with the second-highest chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season should be taken among the first three picks. If you can get him with the sixth, that's a win. 5.91 Saquon Barkley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Even with the threat of Barkley being less than 100% to start the season, he's more likely to be around for your team in the playoffs than say Dalvin Cook (though less likely than Henry or Zeke). Barkley, Kelce, Hill... after the top 5 RBs are off the board, it's really just a question of which position you want to start with--RB, WR, or TE? I would recommend the RB, due to positional scarcity and the fact that Barkley can still perform as an elite RB down the playoff stretch--but if you're not comfortable with Barkley at 6th overall, 7th really isn't much of a reach at all, and I'm not sure who else you would be considering by the 8th overall pick. 6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus. But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines). And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year. (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.) 8.53 Travis Kelce
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I'm sorry, but Round 1 is just too early to be taking a TE--not so much because you don't gain an advantage at that one position, but because you lose an advantage at EVERY OTHER ONE of your starting positions. Your RB1 is now an RB2, relative to everyone else's. Your WR1 is now a WR2, relative to everyone else's. Your RB2 and WR2 and WR3 are now comparable to everyone else's RB3s and WR3s and WR4s. Maybe you get lucky and find a few undervalued gems later in the draft--but you're going to have to do that three or four times to regain the edge you lost by using your first pick on a TE (especially one who finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau with five [5] receiving TDs). 9.87 Tyreek Hill
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Hill should be considered the top WR prospect this season, and should definitely be an option for anyone drafting in the back half of the first round, assuming the half-dozen RBs who are worthy of being picked in the front half of the first round are gone. I would definitely take him over any of the remaining RBs with a 1st-round ADP and be satisfied with Aaron Jones, Najee Harris or Joe Mixon in the 2nd. 11.86 Nick Chubb
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I would have a hard time investing a 1st round pick into a committee-based RB, despite Chubb's history of good performances in tandem with Hunt. Still, I think his good performances are being a little overrated. Chubb's average finish among RBs in his 3 year career is 12th, with a high of 8th in 2019--and here he is being drafted as the 8th RB off the board (and that's counting Jonathan Taylor, so really 7th). So he's basically being drafted to match his career best season, but if he loses a couple of his 12 TDs to OBJ's return or something, he could drop out of the top 15 pretty quickly. 12.83 Austin Ekeler
Æ™ Rating: About Right
When I say About Right, I mean his ADP of the 13th overall pick (high in the 2nd round) not as the 11th-highest ADP (low in the first round). I'm a little wary of him even at 13, but by 14 or 15 I'd be fairly comfortable, assuming that Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have already been taken--so I'll say 13 is About Right. I'm not sure that Ekeler (and the running game in general) will have as large of a role in the offense as in previous seasons--but the Chargers' offense in general should put Ekeler in a position to score on the reg. 13.55 Cam Akers
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
This guy just doesn't have the resume or track record to be considered a first round pick yet. He scored 2 TDs in the regular season as a rookie, and had 1 game with double-digit fantasy points before December. Maybe this is his breakout year, but I'd let someone else be the guinea pig, as you could do much better with Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon here. Besides, he seems like the most likely first round pick to tear his Achilles or something. (Yeah, I started writing this last night.) Stay tuned for Round Two...
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
The chances of the consensus #1 pick finishing the season as the #1 performer are pretty slim. It would be hard not to take CMC among the top 3 players off the board, but Henry and Zeke are both more likely to return #1 overall performance. 2.08 Dalvin Cook
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
With a 17 game season this year, Cook owners will be without him for an extra week, once he makes his perennial early exit, stiffing his owners for their playoff run. For as long as he's healthy, he's an advantage--but you can't count on him to be around at the end of the year. 3.85 Alvin Kamara
Æ™ Rating: About Right
4th overall is kind of a toss-up between Cook and Kamara--do you risk the early exit, or the Breesless offense? But you should definitely be thinking about Kamara by the 5th overall pick, so an ADP of 4ish is About Right. 4.74 Derrick Henry
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
Henry has the best chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season, and as such, he deserves to be the overall #1 pick. Getting him any later than that is stealing. 5.79 Ezekiel Elliott
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
By the same token, the player with the second-highest chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season should be taken among the first three picks. If you can get him with the sixth, that's a win. 5.91 Saquon Barkley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Even with the threat of Barkley being less than 100% to start the season, he's more likely to be around for your team in the playoffs than say Dalvin Cook (though less likely than Henry or Zeke). Barkley, Kelce, Hill... after the top 5 RBs are off the board, it's really just a question of which position you want to start with--RB, WR, or TE? I would recommend the RB, due to positional scarcity and the fact that Barkley can still perform as an elite RB down the playoff stretch--but if you're not comfortable with Barkley at 6th overall, 7th really isn't much of a reach at all, and I'm not sure who else you would be considering by the 8th overall pick. 6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus. But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines). And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year. (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.) 8.53 Travis Kelce
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I'm sorry, but Round 1 is just too early to be taking a TE--not so much because you don't gain an advantage at that one position, but because you lose an advantage at EVERY OTHER ONE of your starting positions. Your RB1 is now an RB2, relative to everyone else's. Your WR1 is now a WR2, relative to everyone else's. Your RB2 and WR2 and WR3 are now comparable to everyone else's RB3s and WR3s and WR4s. Maybe you get lucky and find a few undervalued gems later in the draft--but you're going to have to do that three or four times to regain the edge you lost by using your first pick on a TE (especially one who finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau with five [5] receiving TDs). 9.87 Tyreek Hill
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Hill should be considered the top WR prospect this season, and should definitely be an option for anyone drafting in the back half of the first round, assuming the half-dozen RBs who are worthy of being picked in the front half of the first round are gone. I would definitely take him over any of the remaining RBs with a 1st-round ADP and be satisfied with Aaron Jones, Najee Harris or Joe Mixon in the 2nd. 11.86 Nick Chubb
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I would have a hard time investing a 1st round pick into a committee-based RB, despite Chubb's history of good performances in tandem with Hunt. Still, I think his good performances are being a little overrated. Chubb's average finish among RBs in his 3 year career is 12th, with a high of 8th in 2019--and here he is being drafted as the 8th RB off the board (and that's counting Jonathan Taylor, so really 7th). So he's basically being drafted to match his career best season, but if he loses a couple of his 12 TDs to OBJ's return or something, he could drop out of the top 15 pretty quickly. 12.83 Austin Ekeler
Æ™ Rating: About Right
When I say About Right, I mean his ADP of the 13th overall pick (high in the 2nd round) not as the 11th-highest ADP (low in the first round). I'm a little wary of him even at 13, but by 14 or 15 I'd be fairly comfortable, assuming that Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have already been taken--so I'll say 13 is About Right. I'm not sure that Ekeler (and the running game in general) will have as large of a role in the offense as in previous seasons--but the Chargers' offense in general should put Ekeler in a position to score on the reg. 13.55 Cam Akers
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
This guy just doesn't have the resume or track record to be considered a first round pick yet. He scored 2 TDs in the regular season as a rookie, and had 1 game with double-digit fantasy points before December. Maybe this is his breakout year, but I'd let someone else be the guinea pig, as you could do much better with Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon here. Besides, he seems like the most likely first round pick to tear his Achilles or something. (Yeah, I started writing this last night.) Stay tuned for Round Two...
