AxeElf

Meh, you can split frog hairs all you like--but nobody really knows what will happen---not even the Miami coaches, at this point, I would guess. Gaskin showed decent talent, but it's not like he doesn't have some competition, especially at the goalline, as the coaching staff showed the willingness to use Jordan Howard almost exclusively in that role last season. If you think Gaskin becomes the bellcow, you take the swing. Axe Elf recommends against it, unless you get really good value or something. For my draft capital, I'd take Mike Davis at that price any day.

Maybe we just have different definitions of a RBBC. The Dolphins rushed for 1,688 yards as a team last year; no RB had more than 584 rushing yards individually. The team scored 15 rushing TDs; no individual RB had more than 4 (and the guy who had the most yardage was not the same guy who scored the most TDs). To ME, that's a RBBC, but if you want to go with a "bellcow" that got 584 yards and 3 TDs, be my guest. Because Brown is probly a better RB than anyone they had on the roster last year, except possibly Gaskin, and because the team showed a willingness to go RBBC last year (at least by my standards). That's a bet you'd lose already, since they are in competition simply by being on the same team.

But the numbers you're suggesting for this season are pretty much what Kelce and Gronk were putting up a few years ago--and the chance of a rookie TE who is behind a 2018 #1 draft pick at his position on the depth chart is not at all likely to achieve them.

Yeah, they're just talking about his potential two or three years down the line as if it is the same as his 2021 potential.

I'm just gonna leave you and weepaws to your palatial estates in la-la land. I'd be mildly surprised if Pitts has more targets than Hurst as a rookie, axually.

Unless you're referring to Milligan University in Tennessee, you might want to take a mulligan on that.

Heh... but it's really Cameron and Michael. The "Mac" comes from his middle name, McCorkle.

Good grief, you (and I mean "you" collectively, not just YOU) wouldn't expect so much out of this guy if he was a rookie WR. He's a rookie TIGHT END, for goodness sake. There have been basically two such rookie seasons for TEs in fantasy points in this century--and they both played for the Giants. Jeremy Shockey did it in 2002 (with receptions and yardage; he scored only 2 TDs) and Evan Engram in 2017 (when Beckham missed most of the season and the Giants' other two leading WRs were Roger Lewis and a 2nd-season Sterling Shepard). Add in Rob Gronkowski and you have the only 3 rookie TEs to score more than 150 PPR fantasy points this century. The Falcons have lots of credible options outside of Pitts, including another former first-round draft pick (2018) at TE. You're just not going to see that kind of production from Pitts in his first season.

I'm glad you didn't say they ran things like a fully-inflated football.

Mitchell is probly the Niners' RB6 right now, so he'll have to show something in camp to do any better than the practice squad.

Well, they've dropped off a lot in the last couple of years, but I wouldn't say the Patriots are the worst team in the NFL.

And five the other one, but that wasn't really my point. It's a HUGE stretch for a rookie TE. That was my point.

I think the idea that the 2022 draft will be deeper than usual is because of the COVID year, and lots of players taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility--fewer players came out after last season, so more will come out after next season. It doesn't necessarily say anything about the quality of the players in the draft, but it stands to reason that with more players available in general, there should be more blue-chip players available as a result.

Yeah, I think at some point in my research I accidentally clicked over to STD scoring. Sorry. This projection for Pitts would still put him third, though, as Tonyan was third with 176.6. In a couple of years, maybe (or if Koetter was still the OC of the Falcons), but not as a rookie.

LOL You realize that's 182 PPR fantasy points, right? If he does that, he'll pretty much be the TE1. Here are the top PPR fantasy point totals for TEs from the past 5 years, and how much your projection for Pitts compares to them: 2016: Travis Kelce 138.0 (44.0) 2017: Rob Gronkowski 158.3 (23.7) 2018: Travis Kelce 191.6 (9.6) - George Kittle was #2 with 170.7 2019: Travis Kelce 157.3 (24.7) 2020: Travis Kelce 207.8 (25.8) - Darren Waller was #2 with 171.6 So you're basically saying that Pitts is going to be as good as Kelce/Kittle/Waller as a rookie--and he's going to do most of it in 3-4 games???