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AxeElf

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AxeElf last won the day on October 20

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About AxeElf

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  1. AxeElf

    I Know Everyone is Wondering...

    As we enter the final stretch for playoff positioning, the one question in the minds of every fantasy football enthusiast is, of course, "How is Axe Elf doing?" I shall keep you in suspense no longer... It should come as no surprise that every single one of Axe Elf's 15 managed teams is still in the playoff hunt (even the lone sub-.500 team)--although some of them have smoother sailing to clinch a berth than others. Here's the detailed rundown... League #1 (the K/D league; 12 teams): I am currently in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the standings at 7-4, but I am effectively in 4th place, having the fewest points of those three teams. This is not good, because only the top THREE teams get into the playoffs on the basis of their W-L record; the 4th team is the remaining team with the most points scored over the course of the year--and that's not going to be me. There is only one more week of the regular season remaining in this league, so, if I am going to realize my dream of cashing in a league where I selected a Kicker and a Defense in the first two rounds, the following things need to happen: I need to win--and I am facing the first-place 10-1 team! Then, either the team currently in second place needs to lose to the last-place 2-9 team, or the team currently in third place needs to lose to another team with a losing record (5-6)! It's a long shot, to be sure, though stranger things have happened. The most likely outcome, though, is that my gaffe of flexing Melvin Gordon in Week 5 (his first week back) over Will Fuller (who went on to score 50 that week) is going to be the one bad decision that cost me the game that will ultimately keep me out of the playoffs. But we'll see; if I lose this week and both the 2nd and 3rd place teams win, then it wouldn't have mattered anyway--I'd still have been stuck in 4th place. I can't be mad, though; that's a pretty good showing for a team that basically forfeited 3 of its first 5 picks (the K and D, and then AJ Green never came back as expected for my 5th round pick either). League 2 (12 teams): This is my one team that slipped under .500 this past week, to 5-6. That puts me in a tie for 6th place in the standings, but I am still alive for the playoffs because 2 teams make it on the basis of total points, and I am currently 3rd in total points. So my record really doesn't matter; I can lose both of my remaining games. As long as I maintain my (33 point) lead over the team with the 4th-most points, I'm guaranteed a playoff berth. League 3 (12 teams): 7-4 record, 5th in the standings, 5th in total points. My chances are slim. I need to win my final two games (against the other 7-4 team, and then a play-all week), and I need one of the two 8-3 teams currently in 2nd and 3rd places to lose both of their remaining games. League 4 (12 teams): 6-5 record, 7th in the standings, 5th in total points. There is a knot of us at the top in total points; most total points is only 20 points ahead of me (and 4th place in total points is only 6 points ahead of me). I should make the playoffs on points if I can just get into 4th or better in total points over the course of the next two games. League 5 (12 teams): 8-3 record, 1st in the standings, 2nd in total points. Playoff chances are pretty good, although there are two other 8-3 teams. I should get in on points even if I don't stay in the top seed. League 6 (12 teams): 8-3 record, 4th in the standings, 2nd in total points. Pretty much a lock for the playoffs here; there's only 1 team within 2 games of me, and they play the 2nd-place team in Week 13, while my two remaining opponents have a combined record of 3-19 (plus I have 100 more points than they do). League 7 (12 teams): 10-1 record, 1st in the standings, 1st in total points. Pretty much a lock for the #1 seed here. There are only 2 teams within 2 games of me, and I have 200 more points than either of them. League 8 (12 teams): 9-2 record, 1st in the standings, 1st in total points. If this team hadn't lost this past week, I'd have 4 teams at 10-1 or better! Oh well. I'm still a lock for the playoffs, and probably the #1 seed as well, since there are only 4 teams within 2 games of me, and 2 of them play each other next week, and I have 100 more points than any of them anyway. League 9 (12 teams): 10-1 record, 1st in the standings, 1st in total points, and have clinched a playoff berth. Parenthetically, this is my only league that still has 3 more regular-season games before the playoffs start in Week 15. League 10 (14 teams): 11-0 record, 1st in the standings, 1st in total points, and have clinched a playoff berth. League 11 (14 teams): 8-3 record, 1st in the standings, 1st in total points, and have clinched a playoff berth. League 12 (14 teams): 6-5 record, 5th in the standings, 2nd in total points. Winning out over my last two opponents, who have a combined record of 7-15, will clinch my playoff berth for me. League 13 (16 teams): 7-4 record, 4th in the standings, 1st in total points. It seems crazy that I can be leading the league in total points scored, but have a very real chance of missing the (6-team) playoffs! My final two opponents are both ahead of me in the standings with 8-3 records, and I'd need a little help if I end up 7-6. So a couple of nail-biters on the horizon here. League 14 (18 teams): 7-4 record, 6th in the standings, 5th in total points. My remaining two opponents are both 5-6, and I probably just need to win one of the last two games to cement at least the 6th seed in the playoffs. League 15 (20 teams): 6-5 record, 9th in the standings, 8th in total points. I am mathematically alive, but I will need to win my last two games (against teams with winning records) and need some help to squeak into the playoffs. It's tough to lose a starting RB (Lamar Miller) in a 20 team league before the season even starts and still make the playoffs, but I have a chance to do just that. My 5 Draft Master teams stand in 1st place (+58.15), 2nd place (-62.40), 3rd place (-23.20), 4th place (-98.35)... and 7th place (-86.65). That last team featured Ryan and Flacco at QB, so it took a bit of a hit running without any active QB there for a couple of weeks. So my overall W-L record is 115-50 (69.7%). The team record breakdown is: 11-0: 1 team 10-1: 2 teams 9-2: 1 team 8-3: 3 teams (7 of 15 teams at 8-3 or better) 7-4: 4 teams 6-5: 3 teams (14 of 15 teams with winning records) 5-6: 1 team My average league standing is 4th place, and my average total points standing is 3rd place, with all 15 out of 15 managed teams still alive for a playoff berth, and 3 out of 5 best-ball teams either currently cashing or within 24 points of cashing! And now you know the standard to which you aspire...
  2. AxeElf

    Which DST to stash for playoffs?

    Axe Elf to the rescue!
  3. AxeElf

    Chiefs at Chargers: In-Game Discussion

    If you had ever roundmouthed a guy named Shady McCoy, you'd understand.
  4. AxeElf

    Chiefs at Chargers: In-Game Discussion

    LOL at the token chick sideline reporter saying he was getting treatment on his "quad." (He was clearly receiving treatment to the BACK of his thigh.)
  5. AxeElf

    Chiefs at Chargers: In-Game Discussion

    They might rest him in a meaningless week, but I doubt if they would bench their best RB in an important divisional game.
  6. AxeElf

    What Do You Need Tonight? - Week 11

    There for a few years, I was doing 70+ leagues per year, although about 50 of them would be Draft Masters/Best-Ball leagues. So for me, I want to play in 15 leagues because 25-30 leagues turned out to be too many. I was getting burned out doing waivers by Week 10 or so. The best investment strategy is a highly UNdiversified portfolio--when you are right--and I'm Axe Elf. I do auction leagues, so I tend to draft mostly the same players in all of my leagues--and that way, I don't run into that ambivalence that you described very often. In the rare case that someone else owns a copy of one of my frequent players, I'm still usually better off overall for them to succeed rather than fail. EDIT: And sometimes when you are both for and against the same player, there is a range in which they can still benefit you without hurting you. For example, tonight I am both starting and facing Tyreek Hill, and I will win both of those games if Hill gets at least 28.0 points but less than 57.7 points. I'm not rooting both for and against Hill; I'm rooting for him to have a great day--just not a monster day.
  7. I managed to weather the first 2 weeks of my 3-week Bye-mageddon pretty well, with records of 12-3 and 11-4. This week, however, I'm going to need some help if I'm even going to finish above .500 for the week. K/D League: My campaign to cash in a league where I drafted a Kicker and a Defense in the first two rounds comes down to Melvin Gordon and Harrison Butker this week. If Gordon outscores Butker by at least 0.5 points, I'm still alive. If not, I'm dead. League 2: Philip Rivers and Sammy Watkins cannot outscore Damien Williams by more than 33.1 points. League 3: Need 28.0 from Tyreek Hill. League 4: Mike Williams must score less than 2.1 points. (LOSS) League 5: Tyreek Hill cannot score more than 57.7 points. (WIN) League 6: WIN League 7: LOSS League 8: LOSS League 9: Weird scoring, but essentially Melvin Gordon cannot outgain Keenan Allen by more than 60 yards. Or so... League 10: Keenan Allen must score less than 67 points (WIN) League 11: WIN League 12: LOSS League 13: LOSS League 14: LOSS League 15: Keenan Allen cannot outscore LeSean McCoy by more than 26.4. So, barring the miraculous, I'm basically sitting on 4 wins and 6 losses, with 5 games hanging in the balance. I feel pretty good about 4 of those, which would net me an 8-7 record for the week. I'll take it!
  8. AxeElf

    LeSean McCoy inactive

    Ouch. It must suck to have rosters with so little depth that you never have any real start/sit decisions to make. Axe Elf recommends rostering five top-10 players at every position, if possible, and then evaluating each one's expected starting value based on weekly matchups.
  9. AxeElf

    Hurting for certain...

    Too much TV for you; you have confused me with a fictional character. Despite what your targeted marketing cartoon suggests, real elves are slightly taller than humans (though more slender). That said, E.L.Fudge cookies are magically delicious.
  10. This was never an Axe Elf position. Even Axe Elf can't predict injuries. Axe Elf can only report on traditional results. This is still the case. McCoy leads all KC RBs in rushing yardage, yards from scrimmage, and receiving TDs. Luckily for the Axe Elf disciples, too; since for every league they win, they need 11 also-rans who laughed at the teachings of Axe Elf.
  11. Perhaps, but unless you're in a point-per-carry league, touches really don't matter. The more salient statistic for fantasy football owners is that in the first 8 games of the season, Chubb was the RB5, averaging 19.8 PPR points per game, and in the two games that Hunt has been back, he has been the RB25, averaging 13.6 PPR points per game. Those who have adopted Axe Elf's position that Chubb would be less valuable after Hunt returns are not wrong.
  12. AxeElf

    David Johnson this Sunday?

    You would start McCaffrey even if Mike Davis plays, wouldn't you?
  13. AxeElf

    Hurting for certain...

    Agreed. If you win this week, I consent to forevermore acknowledge that fantasy football is all luck. But since that would imply that Axe Elf is not, after all, the one infallible fantasy football demigod who accepts only smiling faces holding aloft championship trophies as payment, I can only say... "Good luck with that."
  14. AxeElf

    Streaming week 11 defense

    Axe Elf to the rescue!
  15. AxeElf

    David Johnson this Sunday?

    Get McKissic.
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