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AxeElf

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AxeElf last won the day on September 26 2020

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About AxeElf

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  1. AxeElf

    What to do with the LAST PLACE team??

    A lifetime of embarrassment, eh? Make him post pro-Trump, anti-vaxx conspiracy memes on Facebook until the NFL draft in April. Nobody wants to be THAT guy!
  2. AxeElf

    Dynasty rookie draft question

    QBs aren't a particularly valuable commodity in fantasy football any more, so I'd address your area of need at WR.
  3. AxeElf

    Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day

    I axually did this analysis a couple of drafts (and days) ago, but I didn't have time to write up the results until now. I think it can still be instructive. At the time of the analysis, I had drafted 19 fantasy football teams so far this preseason. 9 of them were 24-player rosters (the RTSports BBCs), 3 of them were 20-player rosters (RTSports auction Draft Masters), 3 of them were 18 player rosters (Yahoo Multiflex+Superflex managed auction leagues), and 4 of them were 16 player rosters (3 RTSports High Stakes managed auction leagues and 1 Colton & the Wolfman 14-team Best Ball snake draft). And of course all of them are money leagues, from $20 to $250. To those 19 teams, I have drafted almost 400 players (391), an average of 20.6 players per roster. I have drafted 80 different unique players to those 391 roster slots, but the 30 players that I have on 5 or more teams account for almost 300 (293) of those 400 (391) players (74.9%). This means that for every one of my 20-player rosters, 15 of those 20 players appear on at least 4 more of my teams. For every one of my 24-player BBCs, 18 of those 24 players appear on at least 4 more of my teams. That's a pretty highly focused and undiversified portfolio, which is of course the best investment strategy--when you are right. (And I'm Axe Elf, so...) I'm pretty amazed that I have been able to consistently snag so many of my targets so many times in the ten snake drafts I've done--although they're getting harder and harder to get at the ADPs that made them such values six weeks ago. I axually kind of think that the wave has crested in terms of the pros and cons of early drafting--the upside being that you can get some amazing draft values earlier in the summer, but the downside being that you have to make it through the injury minefield of training camp and preseason. And that's kind of where we are right now, 6 weeks before opening Sunday--the draft values are starting to normalize, but injury season is just starting. My highly undiversified portfolio is less vulnerable to injuries in that I am depending on fewer studs to stay healthy, but also more vulnerable to the extent that an injury to one or two of my key players could essentially end my season. By position, I have drafted 52 QBs. That's 2.7 per team, and 13.3% of all my drafted players. 40 (76.9%) of my QBs are Daniel Jones (on 17 of 19 teams), Patrick Mahomes (on 16 teams) or Ryan Fitzpatrick (7). QBs I wish I had more of: Matt Ryan (on 4 teams) and Kirk Cousins (2). Both are fairly cheap, but they are the QB11 and QB12, respectively, from last year. I also managed to get only one share of Aaron Rodgers during the holdout scare a couple of months ago. Worst QB picks: Cam Newton (2), Jameis Winston (2) and Jared Goff (1). I mean, they're all like 3rd QBs on my teams, but they're my QBs with the biggest questions. (I've added 2 Jones, 2 Ryans and 1 Cousins in 2 drafts since this analysis was completed.) I have drafted 102 RBs; 5.4 per team, and 26.1% of all my drafted players. 76 (74.5%) of my RBs are Chris Carson (14), Raheem Mostert (13), Mike Davis (11), Joe Mixon (10), Trey Sermon (8), Nyheim Hines (7), Tarik Cohen (7) or Latavius Murray (6). I got a lot of that Mostert/Sermon combo early on in the best ball leagues (and they should be fire in that format), but it's getting a lot harder to execute that RB double-draft these days. RBs I wish I had more of: Derrick Henry (3), Ezekiel Elliott (1), Aaron Jones (2), Damien Harris (1), Travis Etienne (1) and Darrell Henderson (1). Henry and Zeke have the best chances of being the #1 fantasy performer this year, but they are hard to get in both snake and auction formats. I've had my eye on Etienne through his career at Clemson, and his upside is literally sky high. He could be the next CMC, if he's given the same kind of touch volume. Worst picks: J.D. McKissic (1), James White (3) and Marlon Mack (1). (I have added 1 Jones, 1 Zeke, 1 Carson, 1 D.Harris, 1 Cohen and 2 Davis since this analysis was completed.) I have drafted 125 WRs; 6.6 per team, and 32.0% of all my drafted players. 91 (72.8%) of them are Kenny Golladay (14), Brandon Aiyuk (13), CeeDee Lamb (12), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11), Robert Woods (10), Mike Williams (10), Adam Thielen (8), Will Fuller (8) or Brandin Cooks (5). Lamb, Woods, Golladay and Thielen all have top 10 potential, with Aiyuk, Williams and Cooks all potential top 20 candidates as well. WRs I wish I had more of: Robby Anderson (4), Tyreek Hill (3), Tre'Quan Smith (3). More Mahomes/Hill stacks would be nice. Worst picks: DeVante Parker (1), Cole Beasley (1) and A.J. Green (1). (I have added 1 Thielen, 1 Aiyuk, 1 Anderson, 2 Woods, 2 Lamb, 2 Golladay, 2 Cooks, 2 Williams, and 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown since this analysis was completed.) I have drafted 55 TEs; 2.9 per team, and 14.1% of all my drafted players). 49 (89.1%) of them are C.J. Uzomah (15), Evan Engram (8), Jared Cook (8), Robert Tonyan (6), Anthony Firkser (6) or Dalton Schultz (6). TE I wish I had more of: Tyler Higbee (3). He seems like a 100-target lock. Worst picks: Dalton Schultz (6) and Hayden Hurst (2). (I have added 1 Higbee, 1 Engram, 1 Firkser and 1 Uzomah since this analysis was completed.) I have drafted 29 Ks; 1.5 per team, and 7.4% of all my drafted players). 20 (69.0%) of them are the Arizona Cardinals (11) or Minnesota Vikings (9). They're both dome kickers for effective offenses. K I wish I had more of: Atlanta Falcons (4). Another dome kicker for an effective offense. Worst picks: Denver Broncos K (1) and Green Bay Packers K (1). (I have added 1 Cardinals and 1 Vikings since this analysis was completed.) I have drafted 28 Ds; 1.5 per team, and 7.2% of all my drafted players). 17 (60.7%) of them are the Minnesota Vikings (9) or the Kansas City Chiefs (8). Ds I wish I had more of: Los Angeles Rams (2), Washington Football Team (2), New England Patriots (2). Worst picks: Chicago Bears D/ST (3) and Tennessee Titans D/ST (1). (I have added 1 Patriots and 1 Vikings since this analysis was completed.) So overall, about 1/3 of the players I have drafted have been WRs, 1/4 of all the players I have drafted have been RBs, with equal shares of 1/7 QBs, 1/7 TEs, and 1/7 Ks & Ds (51% Ks and 49% Ds). I wonder what the numbers will look like after 6 more weeks of drafting (and injuries).
  4. AxeElf

    Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day

    Well, I just drafted my first Best Ball Championship team without Patrick Mahomes in my 10th BBC attempt overall (and it was in the 5000th BBC contest as well--and we all know what 5000 x 10 is, right--$50,000!!!). In fact, this is the first of the 17 teams I have drafted on RTSports (where they have the QB-premium scoring of 0.05 pts per yard passing) without Patrick Mahomes. You just can't get him in the middle of the third round any more (even in 10-teamers like these); he fell at 3.1. And I was so excited about my Zeke/Jones start, too. Getting Zeke at 1.7 was Christmas in July, and Jones lasting to 2.4 was like having your birthday on New Year's. And then I had to watch my sweetheart walk away with someone else on Valentine's Day. I could easily have drafted 2 of the top 5 RBs this year; hopefully my QB trio can collectively stay within sight of Mahomes, or it will all be for naught. I also employed the 5-TE strategy in honor of BBC #5000 (and after having both Higbee and Engram sniped three and one picks ahead of me in the 12th and 14th rounds, respectively). QB: Justin Herbert (7) 7.7, Matt Ryan (6) 11.7, Daniel Jones (10) 12.4 RB: Ezekiel Elliott (7) 1.7, Aaron Jones (13) 2.4, Mike Davis (6) 5.7, Damien Harris (14) 9.7, Tarik Cohen (10) 14.4 WR: Robert Woods (11) 3.7, CeeDee Lamb (7) 4.4, Kenny Golladay (10) 6.4, Robby Anderson (13) 8.4, Brandin Cooks (10) 10.4, Mike Williams (7) 13.7, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 18.4 TE: Anthony Firkser (13) 15.7, Adam Trautman (6) 16.4, C.J. Uzomah (10) 17.7, Zach Ertz (14) 19.7, O.J. Howard (9) 21.7 K: Arizona Cardinals (12) 20.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 23.7 D/ST: Denver Broncos (11) 22.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.4
  5. AxeElf

    BUILD DEPTH, WAIT ON KEY POSITIONS

    Do NOT draft Chris Herndon, as he will likely be playing second fiddle to Tyler Kroft (but I wouldn't draft Kroft, either). This has been a Public Service Announcement from the Elf Institute. The top 10 TE you can get in the last round is, of course, C.J. Uzomah.
  6. AxeElf

    Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

    First, you have to divulge yourself of any desire to win at fantasy football... then it becomes easy.
  7. AxeElf

    Carson Wentz foot injury

    It's amusing to me that Aaron Jones got the "Rodgers Discount" and fell well into the late 2nd round by the time Rodgers finally reported to camp--now he's like the RB6 again--but Jonathan Taylor suddenly gets a boost because the Colts have no QB. It's like everyone looks at everything about Jonathan Taylor backwards this year for some reason--he's the anointed one. But Axe Elf got vision when the rest of the world wears bifocals.
  8. AxeElf

    Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

    So it's happened 3 times in the last 30 years and that makes it a good strategy? Ok...
  9. AxeElf

    Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

    At the end of the first round?? Zeke is a safe pick among the top 3 RBs off the board.
  10. AxeElf

    Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

    It's NOT "just coincidence." The performances of QBs and WRs from the same team are positively correlated, while performances of RBs and WRs from the same team are negatively correlated. Performances of players on different teams are not correlated at all. You may not understand the statistical principles in play, but denying they exist is just willful ignorance.
  11. AxeElf

    Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

    If there's an exception, it's KC this year... but yeah, besides the bye week, there will probly be one or two 200/1/1 weeks out of Mahomes--and the TD will probly be to McKinnon. Not trying to be a Negative Nancy, because I have Mahomes in 16 of 19 leagues so far, and stacked him with Hill in 3 of them. Just be aware that having a QB and WR from the same team promotes inconsistent scoring--more variance in BIG big weeks and BAD bad weeks--than having a QB and WR from different teams whose performances are not tied to each other's. That said, having a WR/RB from the same team, and to a lesser extent, a WR/TE combo from the same team, tends to promote more consistent scoring--but that also means fewer explosive weeks. I'd say pick one or the other--Mahomes or Kelce--and use your money on RBs and another WR or two--then grab someone like Cousins/Ryan/Jones or Higbee/Engram/Firkser later for the QB or TE you saved on. Personally, I bet Mahomes has more value for what you will spend on him this year than Kelce will--especially if your league offers any kind of premium on QB scoring. You can probly get Mahomes for about $25 (of a typical $200 budget), while Kelce could run you upwards of $40.
  12. AxeElf

    Carson Wentz foot injury

    I don't want issues with anyone. I'm an equal-opportunity educator.
  13. AxeElf

    Carson Wentz foot injury

    Rodgers being out was bad for Aaron Jones. Wentz being out is good for Taylor. Guess how one interprets things depends on how many shares one owns. In real life, Taylor remains a solid RB2, just like he was before the injury--and yes, both Mack and Hines will be involved.
  14. AxeElf

    Carson Wentz foot injury

    I doubt if it affects any regular-season games; he still has 6 weeks to recover. And anyway, notes from camp today look like they're in good hands even if he doesn't... "Play of the day so far: Sam Ehlinger scrambles to his left to evade pressure, throws back across his body and finds Mike Strachan on a deep post. Probably 50-yard gain." How many shares of Mike Strachan do you have?
  15. AxeElf

    League scoring change advice

    Change it from a free league to a $100 entry fee, and the loser has to get a tattoo of Trump getting vaccinated while wearing a mask.
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