Axe Elf Guides Your Draft
Axe Elf's commentary on every player, listed by RTSports ADP.
Round One
1.04 Christian McCaffrey
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
The chances of the consensus #1 pick finishing the season as the #1 performer are pretty slim. It would be hard not to take CMC among the top 3 players off the board, but Henry and Zeke are both more likely to return #1 overall performance. 2.08 Dalvin Cook
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
With a 17 game season this year, Cook owners will be without him for an extra week, once he makes his perennial early exit, stiffing his owners for their playoff run. For as long as he's healthy, he's an advantage--but you can't count on him to be around at the end of the year. 3.85 Alvin Kamara
Æ™ Rating: About Right
4th overall is kind of a toss-up between Cook and Kamara--do you risk the early exit, or the Breesless offense? But you should definitely be thinking about Kamara by the 5th overall pick, so an ADP of 4ish is About Right. 4.74 Derrick Henry
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
Henry has the best chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season, and as such, he deserves to be the overall #1 pick. Getting him any later than that is stealing. 5.79 Ezekiel Elliott
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
By the same token, the player with the second-highest chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season should be taken among the first three picks. If you can get him with the sixth, that's a win. 5.91 Saquon Barkley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Even with the threat of Barkley being less than 100% to start the season, he's more likely to be around for your team in the playoffs than say Dalvin Cook (though less likely than Henry or Zeke). Barkley, Kelce, Hill... after the top 5 RBs are off the board, it's really just a question of which position you want to start with--RB, WR, or TE? I would recommend the RB, due to positional scarcity and the fact that Barkley can still perform as an elite RB down the playoff stretch--but if you're not comfortable with Barkley at 6th overall, 7th really isn't much of a reach at all, and I'm not sure who else you would be considering by the 8th overall pick. 6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus. But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines). And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year. (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.) 8.53 Travis Kelce
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I'm sorry, but Round 1 is just too early to be taking a TE--not so much because you don't gain an advantage at that one position, but because you lose an advantage at EVERY OTHER ONE of your starting positions. Your RB1 is now an RB2, relative to everyone else's. Your WR1 is now a WR2, relative to everyone else's. Your RB2 and WR2 and WR3 are now comparable to everyone else's RB3s and WR3s and WR4s. Maybe you get lucky and find a few undervalued gems later in the draft--but you're going to have to do that three or four times to regain the edge you lost by using your first pick on a TE (especially one who finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau with five [5] receiving TDs). 9.87 Tyreek Hill
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Hill should be considered the top WR prospect this season, and should definitely be an option for anyone drafting in the back half of the first round, assuming the half-dozen RBs who are worthy of being picked in the front half of the first round are gone. I would definitely take him over any of the remaining RBs with a 1st-round ADP and be satisfied with Aaron Jones, Najee Harris or Joe Mixon in the 2nd. 11.86 Nick Chubb
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I would have a hard time investing a 1st round pick into a committee-based RB, despite Chubb's history of good performances in tandem with Hunt. Still, I think his good performances are being a little overrated. Chubb's average finish among RBs in his 3 year career is 12th, with a high of 8th in 2019--and here he is being drafted as the 8th RB off the board (and that's counting Jonathan Taylor, so really 7th). So he's basically being drafted to match his career best season, but if he loses a couple of his 12 TDs to OBJ's return or something, he could drop out of the top 15 pretty quickly. 12.83 Austin Ekeler
Æ™ Rating: About Right
When I say About Right, I mean his ADP of the 13th overall pick (high in the 2nd round) not as the 11th-highest ADP (low in the first round). I'm a little wary of him even at 13, but by 14 or 15 I'd be fairly comfortable, assuming that Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have already been taken--so I'll say 13 is About Right. I'm not sure that Ekeler (and the running game in general) will have as large of a role in the offense as in previous seasons--but the Chargers' offense in general should put Ekeler in a position to score on the reg. 13.55 Cam Akers
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
This guy just doesn't have the resume or track record to be considered a first round pick yet. He scored 2 TDs in the regular season as a rookie, and had 1 game with double-digit fantasy points before December. Maybe this is his breakout year, but I'd let someone else be the guinea pig, as you could do much better with Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon here. Besides, he seems like the most likely first round pick to tear his Achilles or something. (Yeah, I started writing this last night.) Stay tuned for Round Two...
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
The chances of the consensus #1 pick finishing the season as the #1 performer are pretty slim. It would be hard not to take CMC among the top 3 players off the board, but Henry and Zeke are both more likely to return #1 overall performance. 2.08 Dalvin Cook
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
With a 17 game season this year, Cook owners will be without him for an extra week, once he makes his perennial early exit, stiffing his owners for their playoff run. For as long as he's healthy, he's an advantage--but you can't count on him to be around at the end of the year. 3.85 Alvin Kamara
Æ™ Rating: About Right
4th overall is kind of a toss-up between Cook and Kamara--do you risk the early exit, or the Breesless offense? But you should definitely be thinking about Kamara by the 5th overall pick, so an ADP of 4ish is About Right. 4.74 Derrick Henry
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
Henry has the best chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season, and as such, he deserves to be the overall #1 pick. Getting him any later than that is stealing. 5.79 Ezekiel Elliott
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
By the same token, the player with the second-highest chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season should be taken among the first three picks. If you can get him with the sixth, that's a win. 5.91 Saquon Barkley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Even with the threat of Barkley being less than 100% to start the season, he's more likely to be around for your team in the playoffs than say Dalvin Cook (though less likely than Henry or Zeke). Barkley, Kelce, Hill... after the top 5 RBs are off the board, it's really just a question of which position you want to start with--RB, WR, or TE? I would recommend the RB, due to positional scarcity and the fact that Barkley can still perform as an elite RB down the playoff stretch--but if you're not comfortable with Barkley at 6th overall, 7th really isn't much of a reach at all, and I'm not sure who else you would be considering by the 8th overall pick. 6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus. But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines). And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year. (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.) 8.53 Travis Kelce
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I'm sorry, but Round 1 is just too early to be taking a TE--not so much because you don't gain an advantage at that one position, but because you lose an advantage at EVERY OTHER ONE of your starting positions. Your RB1 is now an RB2, relative to everyone else's. Your WR1 is now a WR2, relative to everyone else's. Your RB2 and WR2 and WR3 are now comparable to everyone else's RB3s and WR3s and WR4s. Maybe you get lucky and find a few undervalued gems later in the draft--but you're going to have to do that three or four times to regain the edge you lost by using your first pick on a TE (especially one who finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau with five [5] receiving TDs). 9.87 Tyreek Hill
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Hill should be considered the top WR prospect this season, and should definitely be an option for anyone drafting in the back half of the first round, assuming the half-dozen RBs who are worthy of being picked in the front half of the first round are gone. I would definitely take him over any of the remaining RBs with a 1st-round ADP and be satisfied with Aaron Jones, Najee Harris or Joe Mixon in the 2nd. 11.86 Nick Chubb
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I would have a hard time investing a 1st round pick into a committee-based RB, despite Chubb's history of good performances in tandem with Hunt. Still, I think his good performances are being a little overrated. Chubb's average finish among RBs in his 3 year career is 12th, with a high of 8th in 2019--and here he is being drafted as the 8th RB off the board (and that's counting Jonathan Taylor, so really 7th). So he's basically being drafted to match his career best season, but if he loses a couple of his 12 TDs to OBJ's return or something, he could drop out of the top 15 pretty quickly. 12.83 Austin Ekeler
Æ™ Rating: About Right
When I say About Right, I mean his ADP of the 13th overall pick (high in the 2nd round) not as the 11th-highest ADP (low in the first round). I'm a little wary of him even at 13, but by 14 or 15 I'd be fairly comfortable, assuming that Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have already been taken--so I'll say 13 is About Right. I'm not sure that Ekeler (and the running game in general) will have as large of a role in the offense as in previous seasons--but the Chargers' offense in general should put Ekeler in a position to score on the reg. 13.55 Cam Akers
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
This guy just doesn't have the resume or track record to be considered a first round pick yet. He scored 2 TDs in the regular season as a rookie, and had 1 game with double-digit fantasy points before December. Maybe this is his breakout year, but I'd let someone else be the guinea pig, as you could do much better with Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon here. Besides, he seems like the most likely first round pick to tear his Achilles or something. (Yeah, I started writing this last night.) Stay tuned for Round Two...
Round Two
13.92 Aaron Jones
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
About the lowest that Jones should ever go would be pick 14, and I'd be taking him before some of the Round One players like, well, Taylor (duh), Ekeler, and probably Chubb too. Jones has finished as a top 5 RB in both standard and PPR scoring in each of the past two seasons--and an extended absence for Rodgers could mean even more touches. 14.03 Davante Adams
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's kind of remarkable that both Jones and Adams have virtually the exact same ADP. While I called Jones Underrated, I'm saying Adams is About Right for now, because an extended absence for Rodgers would obviously have a more negative effect on Adams than it would on Jones--but I wouldn't begrudge a Packers fan taking Jones and Adams as their bookend picks. There are worse ways to start your draft, especially if Rodgers comes around. With Rodgers on board, Adams becomes Underrated at this ADP. 14.60 Stefon Diggs
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's hard not to see Diggs and Adams as neck-and-neck for the next WR off the board after Hill right now. You could even value Diggs a little higher if you have no faith in Rodgers returning to Green Bay. 14.62 Joe Mixon
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
I guess the injury history is scary enough for Mixon to be the 12th RB off the board, but Mixon was chugging along as the RB9 last season before he got hurt--and he was 2.6 PPR fantasy points from being the RB6 at that point. Any improvement to the offensive line, coupled with a few more touches in Gio's absence, and Mixon has a top 5 ceiling with reasonable mid-RB1 upside. I want Mixon before I want Chubb or Ekeler (or, you know, Taylor)--but I'm not going to lie--the injury risk with Mixon is not insignificant. 15.73 Najee Harris
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
After Jones and Mixon are off the board, I want Harris before I want Chubb or Ekeler too. A couple of years ago, I might not have trusted a rookie RB, but it seems like more and more rookie RBs are stepping directly into contributing roles nowadays--and Harris has all the makings of a bellcow RB for an offense that should still have some firepower. 17.44 DeAndre Hopkins
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
With the other weapons that the Cardinals have, I can't really move Hopkins into the top WR tier with Hill, Diggs and Adams--but I can say he's right below them. He probably represents about the same draft value at his position as guys like Chubb and Ekeler do at theirs (and more than Taylor), so Hopkins should really be going off the board somewhere closer to the top of the 2nd round. He's a pretty solid value if you get him at or below his ADP in the bottom of the 2nd round. 20.59 Antonio Gibson
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
It's kind of amazing that the first five players in Round Two are separated by less than 2 ADP points, but then it's almost 2 full points to Hopkins and more than 3 full points to Gibson. Since Hopkins should probably be a couple of points higher than he is, this means that if you're picking in the 2nd half of Round Two and one of the players listed before Gibson falls to you, you should take them (unless of course it's Jonathan Taylor). It should also be noted that the last six players in Round Two are separated by less than 3.5 points. That means that there is a lot of uncertainty after the top 18 players, with personal favorites beginning to play a larger factor in drafting decisions than consensus values. It also means that it almost doesn't matter who you pick from the next six players listed--but the two worst values among them are the RBs, starting with Gibson. All the usual caveats about committee RBs apply. Give me one of the next batch of WRs to go with my Round One stud RB--there are only like four WRs off the board at this point. 20.88 Calvin Ridley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'm a little wary of the Atlanta passing game this year under new coaching, without Julio, and maybe trying to shoehorn a rookie TE into a WR role, but you can't argue with the opportunity Ridley has to repeat as a top 5 receiver, so he's a solid value in the 2nd half of the 2nd round. 21.50 D.K. Metcalf
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'll stand by the About Right tag, but this is the high end of that range for Metcalf. I like Jefferson a little more than Metcalf for this season (Jefferson already outscored him last year as a rookie), and I'd even bring Michael Thomas into the late 2nd conversation as well--but Metcalf deserves his status as a 2nd round pick. 21.84 Darren Waller
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
See Round One comments on Kelce. There are still some tasty WR1s to be had here, and there's a good chance you can grab two of them at the turn to go with your Round One stud RB. But if you opt for a TE, you won't have a RB2 or a WR2 until the end of the fourth round. I would think the Raiders might be hoping to develop some of their other young WRs a bit more this year too, and not be so reliant on Waller--but he should still be among the top 5 TEs. It's just too early to be drafting TEs. 23.61 Justin Jefferson
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
It's pretty remarkable that Jefferson finished as the WR6 as a rookie. But he seems to be a perfect piece of that offensive puzzle, so sustainability if not improvement in his second season is reasonable. I'd be pulling the trigger on him as soon as Hopkins was off the board. 23.99 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
As I mentioned with Gibson, the two RBs with ADPs in the 2nd half of the 2nd round are the worst values here--but CEH probably shouldn't be drafted for another round yet. He borders on a BUST rating--and when he goes as high as the top half of the 2nd round I'd call him that--but at the 2/3 turn I won't go quite that far. I'd just rather have Chris Carson, who is far more of a bellcow in an offense almost as good as the Chiefs'. McKinnon is going to be more of a nuisance than people who draft CEH in the 2nd round want to admit. Stay tuned for Round Three...
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
About the lowest that Jones should ever go would be pick 14, and I'd be taking him before some of the Round One players like, well, Taylor (duh), Ekeler, and probably Chubb too. Jones has finished as a top 5 RB in both standard and PPR scoring in each of the past two seasons--and an extended absence for Rodgers could mean even more touches. 14.03 Davante Adams
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's kind of remarkable that both Jones and Adams have virtually the exact same ADP. While I called Jones Underrated, I'm saying Adams is About Right for now, because an extended absence for Rodgers would obviously have a more negative effect on Adams than it would on Jones--but I wouldn't begrudge a Packers fan taking Jones and Adams as their bookend picks. There are worse ways to start your draft, especially if Rodgers comes around. With Rodgers on board, Adams becomes Underrated at this ADP. 14.60 Stefon Diggs
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's hard not to see Diggs and Adams as neck-and-neck for the next WR off the board after Hill right now. You could even value Diggs a little higher if you have no faith in Rodgers returning to Green Bay. 14.62 Joe Mixon
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
I guess the injury history is scary enough for Mixon to be the 12th RB off the board, but Mixon was chugging along as the RB9 last season before he got hurt--and he was 2.6 PPR fantasy points from being the RB6 at that point. Any improvement to the offensive line, coupled with a few more touches in Gio's absence, and Mixon has a top 5 ceiling with reasonable mid-RB1 upside. I want Mixon before I want Chubb or Ekeler (or, you know, Taylor)--but I'm not going to lie--the injury risk with Mixon is not insignificant. 15.73 Najee Harris
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
After Jones and Mixon are off the board, I want Harris before I want Chubb or Ekeler too. A couple of years ago, I might not have trusted a rookie RB, but it seems like more and more rookie RBs are stepping directly into contributing roles nowadays--and Harris has all the makings of a bellcow RB for an offense that should still have some firepower. 17.44 DeAndre Hopkins
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
With the other weapons that the Cardinals have, I can't really move Hopkins into the top WR tier with Hill, Diggs and Adams--but I can say he's right below them. He probably represents about the same draft value at his position as guys like Chubb and Ekeler do at theirs (and more than Taylor), so Hopkins should really be going off the board somewhere closer to the top of the 2nd round. He's a pretty solid value if you get him at or below his ADP in the bottom of the 2nd round. 20.59 Antonio Gibson
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
It's kind of amazing that the first five players in Round Two are separated by less than 2 ADP points, but then it's almost 2 full points to Hopkins and more than 3 full points to Gibson. Since Hopkins should probably be a couple of points higher than he is, this means that if you're picking in the 2nd half of Round Two and one of the players listed before Gibson falls to you, you should take them (unless of course it's Jonathan Taylor). It should also be noted that the last six players in Round Two are separated by less than 3.5 points. That means that there is a lot of uncertainty after the top 18 players, with personal favorites beginning to play a larger factor in drafting decisions than consensus values. It also means that it almost doesn't matter who you pick from the next six players listed--but the two worst values among them are the RBs, starting with Gibson. All the usual caveats about committee RBs apply. Give me one of the next batch of WRs to go with my Round One stud RB--there are only like four WRs off the board at this point. 20.88 Calvin Ridley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'm a little wary of the Atlanta passing game this year under new coaching, without Julio, and maybe trying to shoehorn a rookie TE into a WR role, but you can't argue with the opportunity Ridley has to repeat as a top 5 receiver, so he's a solid value in the 2nd half of the 2nd round. 21.50 D.K. Metcalf
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'll stand by the About Right tag, but this is the high end of that range for Metcalf. I like Jefferson a little more than Metcalf for this season (Jefferson already outscored him last year as a rookie), and I'd even bring Michael Thomas into the late 2nd conversation as well--but Metcalf deserves his status as a 2nd round pick. 21.84 Darren Waller
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
See Round One comments on Kelce. There are still some tasty WR1s to be had here, and there's a good chance you can grab two of them at the turn to go with your Round One stud RB. But if you opt for a TE, you won't have a RB2 or a WR2 until the end of the fourth round. I would think the Raiders might be hoping to develop some of their other young WRs a bit more this year too, and not be so reliant on Waller--but he should still be among the top 5 TEs. It's just too early to be drafting TEs. 23.61 Justin Jefferson
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
It's pretty remarkable that Jefferson finished as the WR6 as a rookie. But he seems to be a perfect piece of that offensive puzzle, so sustainability if not improvement in his second season is reasonable. I'd be pulling the trigger on him as soon as Hopkins was off the board. 23.99 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
As I mentioned with Gibson, the two RBs with ADPs in the 2nd half of the 2nd round are the worst values here--but CEH probably shouldn't be drafted for another round yet. He borders on a BUST rating--and when he goes as high as the top half of the 2nd round I'd call him that--but at the 2/3 turn I won't go quite that far. I'd just rather have Chris Carson, who is far more of a bellcow in an offense almost as good as the Chiefs'. McKinnon is going to be more of a nuisance than people who draft CEH in the 2nd round want to admit. Stay tuned for Round Three...