SabreNation

Wow. Spiller's looking like a younger, faster Marshall Faulk right now. 9 carries, 85yds, 2TDs along with 1 rec for 19 yards and we're only 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter...

Bradshaw's struggles for the majority of the game last week combined with how Tampa fared definitely has me worried. Been bouncing back and forth on whether I should bench Bradshaw for Stevan Ridley all week...

Well, I think consensus is pretty clear at this point but I'll throw another voice into the choir. You should literally give up fantasy football and check yourself into an insane asylum tomorrow if you don't put the claim in for Spiller. I watched every play of the game on Sunday. Every play of that awful, miserable, embarrassing display of football ineptitude. Spiller didn't just look as good as he did last year when he averaged over 100 yards and a TD a game as the feature back, he looked 10 times better. He was more decisive having abandoned the Barry-esque dancing in favor of the one cut and GO style you need in today's NFL. He was tougher - running between the tackles and shedding potential tacklers who would've brought him down with ease in the past two season. Oh and he was FASTER. Go to NFL.com and watch the 68 yard touchdown run. He was flying in 6th gear and the Jets defenders looked like they were stuck in reverse. Did I mention that he did all of that against essentially the same defense that held him to his worst game as a starter a year ago? (3.9ypc last year - 12.1ypc last Sunday... a slight improvement.) I will honestly be shocked if Fred Jackson gets his starting role back when he returns from this injury. Don't get me wrong, Fred is still a damn good football player and he is still going to get some playing time but this is CJ's chance to take the torch and run with it and he played last Sunday like he knew that. I'd bet the farm that he remains #1 on the Buffalo depth chart for the rest of this year.

I agree with the others. I don't think you really even need to worry about moving Spiller. I'm a Bills fan, I saw the game on Sunday - he was nothing short of electrifying. FredEx barely had room to breathe against the Jets defense and Spiller made them look silly. Repeatedly. This is CJ's time to shine. You're talking about a player who has amassed 805 yards and 6 touchdowns (combined rushing/receiving) in 7 games as a featured back - and that's while averaging only 18 touches a game in that same span. If Buffalo's defense can keep the score close enough to where CJ can touch the ball 25-30 times instead of 15-20... look out. I know a lot of people are looking to "sell high" with CJ, especially to Jackson owners, but I do not think his fantasy value has peaked yet by a long shot. Fred will cut into his numbers a bit once healthy but don't be surprised if their positions on the depth chart are swapped by the time Jackson returns. With all of that said - if you do still want to trade him, I think tossing Boldin into the mix will be enough to get you Brandon Marshall.

OK, so it's the type of problem that EVERY fantasy owner loves to have. My draft went well, after one week things are looking bright. I won my game, my early picks look solid, a couple of my sleeper picks hit. Now it's time for some tough decisions, though. We'll start with WR and RB. I'm looking quite deep at both positions. Standard PPR scoring. I need to decide on two RBs, two WRs, and a FLEX out of this crop: RB Ahmad Bradshaw Vs TB Adrian Peterson @IND Stevan Ridley Vs ARI Kevin Smith @SF WR Calvin Johnson @SF Wes Welker Vs ARI Percy Harvin @IND Reggie Wayne Vs MIN Randall Cobb Vs CHI Darrius Heyward-Bey @MIA Kevin Smith is clearly out of the equation against San Fran. I think AP vaulted himself back to unbenchable status after week 1. So that comes down to Ridley or Bradshaw in my eyes. OR should I start all 3 and go with 2 WRs? On the other side, Welker worries me - especially after watching Reggie Wayne go off to the tune of 22.5 points on my bench last week. I've also got Percy Harvin and my shiny, new waiver wire toy - Randall Cobb who I liked as a sleeper going into the season and REALLY, REALLY like now. OK, with that out of the way we're gonna get a little more crazy here... Matt Stafford @SF Carson Palmer @MIA Russell Wilson Vs DAL Whoa, whoa, whoa! Relax, I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Stafford here but the kid nearly gave me an ulcer with his 3 picks against St. Louis a week ago and this match-up with a stingy 49ers defense might finish the job. Aaron Rodgers did OK but Aaron Rodgers has more than one option to throw to. Am I crazy for even considering Palmer here? Thanks in advance for your answers, post a link and I'll reply to yours.

I don't think it will end up that bad. The hit was UGLY (and DIRTY) and I was really scared after seeing the replay but Fred seemed fine on the sidelines. No signs of being hobbled at all. My guess is that his non-return was purely cautionary. The score was already getting out of hand and CJ was looking MUCH better than Fred had early in the game anyway. Just sayin', he left the field very shortly after CJ's 58-yard touchdown scamper. As I was telling people BEFORE the season, the biggest concern for FredEx owners should not be his age or his injury (last year's or this year's.) It should be CJ Spiller who looked completely unstoppable out there today. 12 yards per carry against the Jets is nuts and his two long runs were spectacular. He didn't just show off his speed but some strength and toughness as well, several broken tackles on both plays. CJ Spiller isn't supposed to be able to do that. If the score wasn't so out-of-hand then Spiller very likely would've gone over 200 yards today. The worrisome part with Spiller (AND Fred) is Chan Gailey, though. Quite frankly, he's an idiot. He insists on throwing the ball 35 times a game no matter how terrible Fitzpatrick is. Take a look at the opening drive of the second half: CJ Spiller ~6 yards, CJ Spiller ~8 yards - CJ Spiller OUT OF THE GAME (?!?!), Tashard Choice -1 yard, Ryan Fitzpatrick interception returned for a touchdown. After CJ's SECOND huge run, he was yanked from the game AGAIN in favor of choice who proceeded to lose yardage on two goalline runs in a row. I don't know WHY he was taken out of the game, Spiller's shown a nose for the end zone in his career and even if he is a bit small for goalline duty I feel pretty safe in saying that he's probably better than Tashard Choice at pretty much everything...

LOL, and I actually reread that post and didn't catch that. 10-team, obviously.

I don't really have any recent ones. My work league has been going for a few years now and it's the same guys each year so everyone pretty much has a handle on it at this point. The first year, though, someone picked Gostkowski in the 3rd round and the took a defense (can't recall who) in the 4th. We did have an OMG moment in the family league this year when our new guy (who CLEARLY does not watch enough football to be playing fantasy football) picked Mark Sanchez in the first round and then, when asked if he's SURE that's who he wants, stated that the Giants have a really good passing game...

My main is a 12-team league that gives 6 points for all TDs so the waiver wire is ugly at every position but QB ESPECIALLY. There are a whopping 3 starters available - Christian Ponder, John Skelton, and Sam Bradford.

I see AP as a fantasy bench warmer for the first 4 weeks of the season because the Vikings will play it safe with him. Not necessarily because he needs it but because he is their meal ticket and they know it. Beyond that, I'm very bullish on Peterson this year. Somewhere in the area of 1200 yards with double digit TDs and another 200-300 yards receiving would not surprise me. I know that's a very aggressive prediction but it's what I think will happen. As has been stated, ACL injuries are not the kiss of death they used to be and Peterson is the kind of pure athlete/workhorse I can easily see bouncing right back with almost 0 ill effects a la Wes Welker. I have him in 2 leagues - one league I picked up Kevin Smith to help me through the first few weeks (I also have Stevan Ridley on that team) and the other league he's actually my RB3/FLEX option thanks to a ridiculous early run on QBs and WRs that allowed me to grab Ray Rice AND Matt Forte.

I snagged Matt Stafford in the 4th round in a 1-team draft. Rodgers, Brady, and Brees went in the first round almost back-to-back and then nobody touched a QB after that. I snagged Calvin Johnson in the first, Wes Welker in the second, Adrian Peterson in the third and could not believe Stafford just kept sliding. I thought about him in the second but made the decision after drafting Johnson that I wanted to target an elite WR squad in this league so I grabbed Welker since he's a PPR GOD. Then I thought about Stafford in the 3rd but figured I couldn't afford to go another round without taking an RB, especially with AP still out there. My mind was fully blown when Stafford came all the way back around and was STILL there when I was back up in the 4th. That Megatron - Stafford combo will net me 11+ points on every TD hookup this year (6 WR TD + 4 QB TD + 1 Reception + Any Yardage (1 per 20 for Stafford, 1 per 10 for Johnson.) I did the math - a 60 yard TD from Stafford to Megatron would net me an instant 20 points (6 + 4 + 1 + 3 + 6)

I decided to give one of those El Cheapo Yahoo $20 leagues a crack since I've usually been able to dominate Yahoo Public leagues in the past (though I expect stiffer competition with money on the line.) It's a 10-team league, non-PPR. Since I'm pretty sure there are bound to be some "How the f...." questions with my RBs I'll explain in advance. There was a CRAZY run on WRs and QBs from about the mid-first to mid-second round. Never seen anything like it in a non-PPR league before. Megatron went, then Rodgers and it was like everyone went into a feeding frenzy. Brees, Stafford, Brady, Fitz, Jones, White, they were FLYING off the board. This allowed me to snag, in my eyes, 3 legitimate RB1s and wound up with some FANTASTIC value left at QB late in the draft because everyone bought high on the QB "Megastuds" QUARTERBACKS Peyton Manning Phillip Rivers Andrew Luck RUNNING BACK Ray Rice Matt Forte Adrian Peterson Stevan Ridley WIDE RECEIVER Dez Bryant Marques Colston Antonio Brown Denarius Moore Nate Washington TIGHT END Jacob Tamme DEFENSE/ST Buffalo Bills (homer pick) KICKER Jason Hanson Some personal commentary: * I almost always go with a mid-round QB-by-committee approach in fantasy football. I almost never pick a QB before I have 3 RBs and 3 WRs on my team. I like to target around 5 mid-round high upside players and look to land 3 of them. I have a pretty good track record of hitting on at least one and landing myself a solid every week starter. * My wide receivers are weak sauce currently. With the #2 pick there was a loong gap between when I picked Peterson in round 3 and when I came back up in round 4. They were picked pretty clean at that point. Dez Bryant I'm OK with. Colston worries me but at that point it was either pick him, end up with Bryant AND Miles Austin, or reach for Stevie Johnson and as a Bills homer I try to restrain myself from picking Bills unless it's a late flyer (like taking their D in the 2nd last round.) * That said, I'm hoping to hold onto what I have until week 4 or 5 when I'm confident (fingers crossed) AP has got his legs back under him, then package AP or Forte with Rivers (or Luck if he catches a hot hand early) for a top tier WR and a decent RB3. The guy with Megatron is currently starting Reggie Bush at RB with Cedric Benson as his top backup so I think I can make a play if he starts slow and gets desperate.

I think you did a good job overall but the QB situation would worry me a bit in a league with 7pt TDs for QBs. I like Rivers as a value pick this year but I think you waited a little too long to pick one up (and this from a guy who rarely picks a QB before the 7th round but these leagues are different.) Your skill position players are fantastic though, you have excellent starting RBs and WRs with fantastic depth. Overall, I think you go as Phillip Rivers goes. As long as he has a solid season (doesn't need to be amazing, good will get the job done) you will be competitive. If he struggles you very well may do the same.

Normally I like that mid-round area. It allows for a nice balanced team as opposed to the wild swings in available talent you get at the beginning and end picks. Makes it a little easier to think a pick or two ahead. When you're at one of the ends and have 15+ picks before your next one you really have no idea who will be around. That said, this year I agree with you. The middle of round 1 is a mess mainly because the RBs are a mess behind the top 3 guys. Overall, I like the strategy you took. The Brady-Welker combo could be deadly. There's some risk in your RBs but a lot of upside as well. Smart move grabbing Felix to handcuff Murray. I'm not a Maclin fan but then again I said the same thing last year and he did fine. I think Driver is a wasted roster slot. What is available on the FA wire? If nothing is out there now then watch for the week 1/2 surprises at WR. There's always a few. Drop Driver and roll the dice on one of them. Maybe you end up with this year's 1 week wonder, maybe you end up with this year's Victor Cruz. Either way, I don't see Driver doing much this year with all that talent surrounding him in Green Bay. He was the 3rd option last year and I think Cobb takes that role away from him this year. Oh and, seriously, defense means nothing in the draft. I always take mine in the 2nd-to-last round (kicker in the last, obviously) and play the waiver wire game early in the season. There's always a defense that emerges and surprises people. Keep an eye on the waiver wire and snag that defense, whoever it may be.

Solid, not spectacular. I agree with dropping Helu but not for another TE - you need another QB. In a 10 team league I would imagine there is some value to be had in undrafted QBs. Someone with big upside and minimal risk who can also make a decent bye week player. Perhaps an Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Jake Locker. I love the starters at RB and WR (especially if Mike Wallace comes back by week 1) but your depth at RB is a little suspect. Overall, you'll be in the running so long as McCoy and Forte stay healthy.

We need more information, like scoring. Sounds like a 6 point TD league based on the information provided. In that case I'd probably take a long, hard look at Aaron Rodgers. Still conventional wisdom generally says you go with Ray Rice #1 in a PPR league. Don't just look at raw points. Look at overall value - how many points did the #12 RB have? One player won't win you a championship, even in fantasy football it's a team game and you need to be well rounded.

I like Jimmy Graham - I had him on two teams last year and he was a MONSTER. However, I never take TEs this early. I just can't bring myself to do it. The reason for that is I always see a MASSIVE drop off in ADP with not nearly as steep a drop off in production behind the top 1 or 2 guys. It's the same every year. This year, the next guy off the board is generally Hernandez and he always goes 2-3 rounds later than Graham. Even after him you've got a bunch of guys like Gates, Gonzalez, Finley, and Vernon Davis that offer (in my eyes) MUCH better value for their draft position. Compare that to the drop in production at RB or WR from rounds 1 and 2 to rounds 4-6. Graham/Vernon Davis Vs. Charles/Shonn Greene... know what I mean? Same reason I avoid QBs early in the draft (unless it's a 6pt TD league like this but, unfortunately, where you are drafting that drop off has already happened so you might as well wait.)

Yeah, clearly the competition, while better than standard Yahoo public leagues, is still not fantastic. The run on QBs and WRs after the top 3-4 backs are gone seems fairly common this year but this one went on for SO long and in a non-PPR league no less. To top it off, everyone either bought high on a QB or gobbled up WRs only to be left scrambling to get some RBs so the mid-tier QBs just kept falling and falling for me. I got Manning in the 7th, Rivers in the 8th, Luck was like a 13th rounder if memory serves. I'm tempted to sign up for another one. I don't like that Yahoo takes $20 out of each league for themselves but with this level of competition I like my chances of at least getting my money back (payouts are $100 1st, $60 2nd, $20 3rd.) On the WR front, part of my original post that I cut out of this is that I'll be looking around week 4 or 5 to move Forte or AP and Rivers (or Luck if he gets hot) for a stud WR. The guy with Megatron is currently starting Reggie Bush at RB2 with Cedric Benson as his top backup so I think I can make a play for him if that guy starts off slow and goes into panic mode. Anyway, thanks for the response.

Is it PPR? If it is a PPR league, I'd go with Julio. Non-PPR, Jamaal Charles or Murray - flip a coin. I view both as medium-risk/high upside RB1s this year and practically interchangeable on draft day. I don't like Newton, I think we're gonna see a dip in his numbers. Not a huge dip, mind you, but a big enough dip that I wouldn't use a first rounder on him ever in a 6 pt passing TD league. Gobble up a bunch (3) of high upside mid-rounders like Manning, Rivers, Luck, RG3, etc a little later.

Jackson worries me. Mind you, I'm a Bills fan and as a person and a player I *LOVE* Fred Jackson but as a fantasy back, I'm staying the H-E-Double Hockey Sticks away. Everyone brings up the fact that he's 31 but that doesn't worry me much, he's a YOUNG 31 with less than 1,000 carries on his legs. He's kind of like a classic sports car that was only driven on perfect summer days so it might be 30 years old but there's only 25,000 miles on it, you know what I mean? No, the age doesn't worry me. CJ Spiller worries me. I think when it's all said and done you're looking at somewhere close to a 60/40 split in carries between the two which will eat into Jackson's production. Chan Gailey is a throw-first, run-second guy to begin with which further limits his carries. He is somewhat more valuable in PPR leagues since he's a big threat out of the backfield and an absolute demon on screen passes. I would still stay away though. If I was in your position, I'd keep Victor Cruz.

Overall I think you did very good for yourself. Foster and AP will make a nice 1-2 punch at RB and you did a good job grabbing both handcuffs while still getting yourself a decent Bye Week starter. As I said in my own Rate thread, I'm not big on Colston this year. I really think his numbers are going to take a dive. With that said, Reggie Wayne is CRAZY undervalued right now and I think Denarius Moore is going to bust out this season and become a great WR2, if not a low-end WR1 candidate. I'm not that big on Newton this year. I don't think he's going to be BAD, mind you, I just don't think he'll match last season's gaudy stats. With that said, you still managed to get two strong RBs and a solid group of WRs in your draft so I don't think spending an early pick (2nd round, I assume?) on him hurt your too bad. Good job on the team and good luck in the season.

Copy-pasta from my other thread: I decided to give one of those El Cheapo Yahoo $20 leagues a crack since I've usually been able to dominate Yahoo Public leagues in the past (though I expect stiffer competition with money on the line.) It's a 10-team league, non-PPR. Since I'm pretty sure there are bound to be some "How the f...." questions with my RBs I'll explain in advance. There was a CRAZY run on WRs and QBs from about the mid-first to mid-second round. Never seen anything like it in a non-PPR league before. Megatron went, then Rodgers and it was like everyone went into a feeding frenzy. Brees, Stafford, Brady, Fitz, Jones, White, they were FLYING off the board. This allowed me to snag, in my eyes, 3 legitimate RB1s and wound up with some FANTASTIC value left at QB late in the draft because everyone bought high on the QB "Megastuds" QUARTERBACKS Peyton Manning Phillip Rivers Andrew Luck RUNNING BACK Ray Rice Matt Forte Adrian Peterson Stevan Ridley WIDE RECEIVER Dez Bryant Marques Colston Antonio Brown Denarius Moore Nate Washington TIGHT END Jacob Tamme DEFENSE/ST Buffalo Bills (homer pick) KICKER Jason Hanson Standard, non-PPR scoring. Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, PK, DEF.

6 points ALL TDs?! Stafford. Seriously. But if you're dead set on one of the Johnsons, I'd go with Calvin. RB is a cluster...buck behind the top 3 guys this year. If I was going RB in that situation, I'd probably grab Forte before CJ2K in a PPR league, FWIW.

While the value of RBs in fantasy seems to be diminishing lately with more and more teams jumping on the committee bandwagon, they still rule the roost in non-PPR leagues, IMO. I like your strategy overall. Stay the hell away from MJD though unless he falls hella-far in the draft. Holdout RBs are bad news. I'm not overly sold on Lynch either. He's a headcase and that would make me nervous. The potential is always there for an off-the-field screw up of Kenny Britt or Pacman Jones proportions. I like McFadden(just make sure you handcuff him, he's bound to get hurt) and Johnson. Cross Lynch and MJD off your list and replace them with Forte and Jamaal Charles (or DeMarco Murray though I'm not totally sold on him either). Keep an eye on AP, too. He's been falling ridiculously far in a nearly every real or mock draft I've seen so far. For your quarterbacks, I always go with the same strategy and it's worked very well for me over the years. Don't even LOOK at them until you've got 3 RBs and 3 WRs (unless there's a huge run leaving only junk at one of those positions, obviously - don't reach. Consider a TE in rounds 4/5/6 if that happens, though.) Have around 5 or 6 high upside guys in mind before the draft (think Manning, RG3, Palmer, and the like) and try to get 3 of them. Best case scenario - you hit big on one of your three and end up with this year's Aaron Rodgers or Matt Stafford. Worst case scenario - you end up juggling a couple of average-hot/cold type QBs in a QB-By-Committee approach but your strong RBs and WRs should make up for it. I had both happen last year. I landed Stafford relatively late in one league and I was set. In another league I had Fitzpatrick and Manning who I juggled throughout the year along with Palmer who was a waiver wire grab.

Welker Roddy A.J. Green Fitz Julio Andre Johnson Welker is a PPR god and I see no reason to believe that is going to change this year. Overall I like Jones to have more yards and TDs but Roddy White is consistently among the most targeted WRs in the league and I think his receptions will give him the edge in PPR leagues. A lot of people may disagree with my #3 but I am super-high on A.J. Green this year. Barring a major sophomore slump from Dalton I think Green emerges as a Top 5 WR and consensus Top 10-15 pick next season. Fitz is just Fitz and whoever wins the QB job in Arizona is going to throw the ball to him a LOT because they won't have many other options. Julio is another emerging star but I personally like A.J. Green ever so slightly more. Johnson worries me. I've been an Andre Johnson fan for a long time but the recent injury history raises red flags all over the place. When healthy he's one of the best in the business but he just can't seem to stay healthy of late. His age isn't going to help matters.