ampheels

My logic was completely fine, take a look at my actual argument-I was merely discussing the value of two isolated draft selections-a 3rd round QB & 9th round RB/WR vs. a 9th round QB & a 3rd round RB/WR Drafting a QB early can often force an owner into slotting players and drafting to fill immediate position needs, causing you to reach at numerous stages throughout a draft..I absolutely understand the point that you're attempting to make, but drafting a RB/WR in round 3 should equally dictate your draft decisions the same way a QB would. If you load up with 5 skill position players to start, you'll be more inclined to draft a QB in the next few rounds. Vice Versa- If you secure a QB in rounds 2-3, you'll be more inclined to draft skill players in the next few rounds. To me, QB is the easiest position to predict this year, you have a half dozen top guys/a middle tier of 3-4 guys which are solid weekly starters who have the opportunity to put up elite #'s (schuab, big ben, ryan, etc.)/a small group of guys who have a limited ceiling but have cemented themselves as serviceable fantasy starters (eli, flacco, etc.) a handful of upside guys who have the opportunity to make a leap forward (stafford, bradford, kolb,etc.)... rb's and wr's have much more turnover in FF, which is why i tend to load up on both and hope to have enough depth to deal with a disappointing season (injuries aside-which you can't predict) and still potentially have a swing guy on the bench to offset that(+1 to foster owners last year) you can grab a more consistent/proven commodity at QB later in the draft, while most skill players drafted in rounds 9+ are lottery tickets..let's take a further look (this is based on ff todays 12 team ADP's): drafting in the 3rd round will net you roughly the 5th QB off the board, in round 9 the 11th QB off the board: ---in 2010 rivers finished 5th while flacco finished 11th.. the difference is 3.68 points a game in standard leagues now, drafting in the 3rd round will net you roughly the 12th RB off the board, in round 9 the 39th RB off the board: ---in 2010 mjd finished 12th while mike goodson 39th..the difference is 6.5 points a game in standard leagues now, drafting in the 3rd round will net you roughly the 8th WR off the board, in round 9 the 44th WR off the board: ---in 2010 andre johnson finished 8th while jabar gaffney 39th.. the difference is 4.43 points a game in standard leagues the crazy thing is that the above data assumes that you get identical value to your actual selection..guys like mike goodson (projected to finish 91st amongst backs by ff today) and jabar gaffney (projected to finish 56th amongst receivers by ff today) were not being drafted in most leagues--meanwhile, eli was projected to finish 9th overall at QB with an ADP in the 9th round..it's more likely for a RB/WR to drop off the face of the earth than a QB obviously there are players who are outliers who greatly over-performed or under-performed their ADP's, but as a general rule of thumb you can draft a QB later on and still have a viable weekly starter and load up on RB's/WR's in the early/mid rounds due to the uncertainty at their positions

I agree with this statement to an extent. I think Freeman will post similar #'s but won't be nearly as efficient (Tampa's schedule is brutal and despite having the most cap space in the league, they virtually did nothing to improve that defense), as he should be in a fair amount of shoot outs. Blount's #'s will improve because he now has 16 games to be the lead horse in the offense, but I think his ypc will be down. Now for Mike Williams. Love his skill set and what he can do after the catch, however he's still very unpolished on the route tree and benefited from the team having very few other RZ options and a stalled running game for over half the season. I think his receptions/yardage will be up due to sheer volume, but his td #'s to be down. I have a 75/1100/8 type of season projected. I like his current value in round 4 and think he should have a productive WR2 season in all formats. My advice if you target Williams as your #2 instead of a more proven commodity (ie. Brandon Marshall/Boldin/etc) you should snag up consistent Wr3 who has produced like a WR2 in the past like Santana Moss.

brown is the one to own due to upside (if wallace goes down he is slotted into that role)..with that said he will be climbing up draft boards and be overvalued in upcoming drafts , don't mortgage your fantasy team to any pittsburgh offensive player not named ben/mendenhall/wallace

i'm looking at it from a fantasy football perspective (this is a fantasy football forum after-all)..eli is a consistent fantasy commodity who's started every game the past 6 years, if you don't mind dealing with turnovers (or aren't overly penalized for them) he's a very productive fantasy starter that you can snag in rounds 8-10 last season there was a 3 point per game difference between the 5th ranked overall qb (rivers- current 3rd round ADP) and the 10th ranked qb(eli-current 9th round in ADP) in standard leagues, lets take a further look at skill position players in round 3 vs. round 9 based on current ADP round 3 rb's- forte, hillis, bradshaw, blount, greene, felix (he's cemented himself in this tier of backs) round 9 rb's- michael bush, LT, james starks, pierre thomas, cj spiller round 3 wr's- djax, austin, bowe, wallace, wayne, mike williams, dez bryant round 9 wr's- mike thomas, roy williams, jacoby ford, danny ammendola, aj greene, hines ward, johnny knox, braylon edwards do the math, and tell me who you'd rather have on your roster

eli has finished top 10 in fantasy points the past 2 seasons..not shabby for being the 13/14th qb off the board

well he was 1,000 and 6 last year and the backfield got more crowded.. still think he's valuable and should have a line of roughly 850-900 total and 5 tds, which given his current ADP he's an undervalued flex option in 12 team leagues (standard format, obviously in PPR he gets a substantial bump)

based off ff todays ADP for 12 team leagues (guys with ADPs in round 8 through 12) rb: brandon jacobs, jonathan stewart, michael bush, willis mcgahee, danny woodhead, rashad jennings, LT rb's with lower ADP's worth a potential flier (not including handcuffs): delone carter, kendall hunter, roy helu, vereen/ridley, ben tate, jacquizz rodgers, larod stephens-howling, jaimie harper wr: santana moss, aj green, lance moore, nate burleson, davone bess, lee evans, robert meachem, greg little wr's with lower ADP's worth a flier: andre roberts, erick decker, emmanuel sanders/antonio brown, arrelious been/dezmon briscoe, denarious moore

was at steelers training camp for several sessions this year...brown was definitely the most impressive up in latrobe but let's hit the breaks a little bit after a preseason game (he is definitely ownable but not before the later rounds) i still think the pecking order in the steelers offense in terms of targets is as follows: 1)wallace 2)ward 3)emmanuel sanders (if healthy, he's most likely to supplant hines as the #2 of this offense) 4)brown 5)cotchery 6)either heath miller or david johnson(they've been keeping heath in the box to help with pass protection) i think brown will end up with more tds but slightly less yards than ward but not as many targets, i think a 30/550/5 line is in order, there are just too many mouths to feed for anyone outside of wallace to be considered a weekly option unless it's an extremely deep league (14 or 16 with big lineups)

if you can pair kolb with stafford/bradford/flacco then i would feel very comfortable, the bottom kind of falls off after that tier..i think kolb can put up fringe top 10 fantasy #'s this year but most likely will put up top 12-15-pair him with another serviceable starter and play matchups (his schedule is pretty favorable)

+1..i typically will snag a WR3 with upside (manningham/harvin/britt/collie/julio jones/etc) but i want my top 2 WR options to be guys who will see the majority of targets in their offense and i can have in my lineup on a weekly basis

#2 option in giants offense > #1 option in bills offense (with 0 other capable playmakers at WR, stevie will see a lot of safeties rolled over top) with that said, stevie will get more targets and significantly more red zone looks-i feel safer drafting stevie as my WR2 (i'll have 3 backs by round 5) because the production will be consistent on a week to week basis (only 2 of manninghams scores were from inside the 25 last season) now if i had to choose between the two for my WR3 i would lean towards manningham because of his upside as the vertical threat in the giants offense

aj green and little are the two to own, while green has more upside this season (WR3 in deep formats, but probably a flex/bye week guy in 10 team leagues)...a guy to keep tabs on is evan moore in cleveland, in TD heavy leagues he is definitely a solid TE flier late in drafts as the browns will use him heavily in the red zone (i think he could be a 8td guy)

i personally think tampa will be down as a team this year, schedule is brutal and they didn't make any significant moves to bolster their defense..with that said, i think freeman will be forced to throw and throw often late in games- while talented, benn & briscoe don't really scare me to steal significant touches away from mike williams (safety rolled over top from opposing defenses does scare me tho), so it would be nice to have another outside threat to compliment mike williams and kellen winslow and keep opposing coordinators honest i think a 80/1100/8 td season is realistic to expect and i have confidence drafting him as my wr2 (anytime in the 4th is justifiable for williams, and anything later i consider a significant value)

i personally never draft a qb in the first 6-7 rounds unless someone drastically falls below ADP and they're BPA...at their current ADP's, i think big ben/matt ryan/freeman are a tad bit overvalued, try to get a combo of eli/stafford/bradford/kolb/flacco

1) Wayne 2) Jennings 3) Austin 4) Vjax 5) Wallace

not sure if any WR for the rams is ownable in non-ppr leagues..gibson/msw/donnie avery/danario, hell even lance kendricks will all get looks in this system (this isn't even taking into account pettis or salas potentially getting burn later in the season)

i have no problem with him being the 12th WR off the board (even though i wouldn't touch him here), anything earlier i feel is a definite reach.. i personally feel there are 11 guys clearly better than him: megatron/aj/nicks/fitz/roddy/jennings/wallace/vjax/miles austin/djax/wayne bowe has the potential to light things up and in an offense where he will get the lionshare of looks, but he's very inconsistent and belongs in the rankings range of brandon lloyd & stevie johnson

1) Gates 2) Finley 3) Clark 4) Vernon 5) Owen Daniels 6) Witten 7) Kellen Winslow 8) Jimmy Graham 9) Mercedes Lewis 10) Olsen 11) Jared Cook 12) Aaron Hernandez 13) Gresham 14) Gronkowski 15) Evan Moore

depends on how far he drops... if backs like mendenhall/mccoy/turner/dmc all get drafted before him, i would be willing to pull the trigger on him in round 2 (where i think he will likely drop in most 10 team leagues) i honestly think the knee might have been the best thing for his career, if del rio actually gets jennings more involved in the offense (i think they will) MJD could benefit greatly... would love to see a usage rate around 18-20 touches a game, if so you can expect around 1300+ total yards and 10+ TD's if he remains healthy(see 2008)

last seen catching passes at Pryor's pro day...

1) Megatron 2) AJ 3) Nicks 4) Fitz 5) Roddy 6) Jennings 7) Mike Wallace 8) Vjax 9) Miles Austin 10) Djax 11) Reggie Wayne 12) Mike Williams 13) Bowe 14) Dez Bryant 15) Stevie Johnson 16) Brandon Lloyd 17) Tony Holmes 18) Percy Harvin 19) Boldin 20) Mario Manningham 21) Marshall 22) Colston 23) Kenny Britt 24) Collie 24) Santana Moss 25) Julio Jones 26) Maclin 27) Welker 28) Sidney Rice 29) Mike Thomas 30) Lance Moore

1) AP 2) Charles 3) Foster 4) CJ 5) Ray Rice 6) Mendenhall 7) DMC 8) McCoy 9) MJD 10) Turner 11) Gore 12) SJax 13) Forte 14) Shonn Greene 15) Bradshaw 16) Felix Jones 17) Blount 18) Hillis 19) Best 20) Ingram 21) DeAngelo 22) Knowshon 23) Ryan Grant 24) Tolbert 25) Law Firm 26) Beanie Wells 27) Addai 28) Fjax 29) Daniel Thomas 30) J-Stew

1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Michael Vick 3) Drew Brees 4) Tom Brady 5) Phil Rivers 6) Peyton Manning 7) Tony Romo 8) Big Ben 9) Eli Manning 10) Matt Stafford 11) Matt Ryan 12) Matt Schuab 13) Sam Bradford 14) Jay Cutler 15) Kevin Kolb 16) Josh Freeman 17) Joe Flacco 18) Matt Cassel 19) Kyle Orton 20) Colt McCoy

sorry for the price confusion-i could care less about the WR5 for the pats on a fantasy football forum, so i assumed you thought he might have actual value to owners this upcoming season..aware of the vereen injury, but once healthy if ridley still continues to see carries (especially near the goal line) he could be a guy who puts up mike tolbert type of #'s (750 yards and 12 tds) within the next year or two as part of a time share in a very good offense

if the trend continues during preseason that ridley sees touches and PT over vereen, he becomes the NE back to own in dynasty leagues..i'm sorry but taylor price isn't having a fantasy worthy impact on the pats roster (welker/ocho/branch/tate/gronkowski/hernandez) anytime soon