Maroon Bells

Vikings at Rams. Vikings defense going to be better than most think. Plus, it's an attacking, turnover-generating defense. Their returners are good and St. Louis is wheeling out Shaun Hill.

Watching our kids do splits in the living room, my wife just came up with My Ball Zach Ertz.

It's close, but again, in the end, it's mostly about talent. And Patterson is simply a far more talented football player than Michael Floyd. Floyd will be good and probably has a higher floor than CP, but CP's ceiling is through the roof. As long as we're not talking about WR1s here, and we're not, then I go with the upside play.

Markus Wheaton was my favorite receiver in the 2013 NFL draft. There were better receivers (Patterson), but for where he was projected to go, I felt he had the best value. He just looked so good in the Senior Bowl practices: speedy, great hands, tough as nails, good kid. Shocked he fell to the 3rd round. I haven't drafted yet, but I'm definitely targeting Wheaton as my WR5. I'm convinced he'll put up WR3 numbers, but he has WR2 upside. As I've said before, his floor is 2013 Kenny Stills. His ceiling is more like TY Hilton or even DeSean Jackson.

I've seen him plenty. You don't have to convince me the kid's talented. You have to convince me that he's going to be on the field enough for it to matter.

Shock and awe can work. Especially with high hype players who are going for much more than their estimated value. For example, Cordarrelle Patterson is valued at $14 on ESPN, but in the dozen or so mocks I've done he's never gone under $20 and he's even gone as high as $28. So I tried your shock and awe, nominated him at $20 right away, $6 over his estimated value, and didn't get a single competing bid. I'm sure I was laughed at. That's OK, it was the lowest I'd ever paid for him. :-)

RB 1: 6-0, 227, All American, 4.3 forty, 38 vertical RB 2: 6-2, 217, All American, 4.4 forty, 38 vertical Both were 1st round draft picks. Which player do you take? Player 1 is Kevin Jones, who's now out of the NFL. Player 2 is Adrian Peterson. My point is that measurables mean nothing. Some people just play football really, really well and some don't. I'm not saying Kelce isn't a good pick. He's on my radar, too. But I wouldn't use measurables to make that case.

AD and it's not close. AD is my pick for fantasy player of the year. Charles is my pick for fantasy disappointment of the year. Just don't like the changes on that line. Bad line, QB with no deep weapons means 9 in the box all game long for Charles. He's good enough to break out of that, but I just don't like the odds. Meanwhile, AD is on a much improved Viking offense with good weapons and an OC determined to get him the ball in space. No brainer IMO.

1. AD (insanity that anyone goes ahead of him. The best player in the NFL on a much improved team) 2. Forte (Huge offensive potential, a much improved line) 3. McCoy (Ultra talented, but without Jackson pulling that safety out, I don't know. I liked him a lot more last year) 4. Charles (Charles has "regression to the mean" written all over him. And that was before losing three, now four, offensive linemen. I warned you)

Between the two, I take Bell, but I tend to just avoid committees like this. Even in a high-octane offense. Inevitably you'll play the guy who gets 5 points when the other one explodes for 30.

Don't make that trade. Graham will be marginally better than Julius, but replacing AJ Green with a part time RB won't help you. You'd still need a back you can count on. I'd drop Carey, find a sucker to deal Richardson to, and trade Julius Thomas for a good starting back (someone like Bernard or Mathews) and a lower ranked TE Rudolph, Ertz or Kelce.

I wanted no part of Peterson last year, like I want no part of Charles this year. Sensing a pattern? I feel you're sort of on the right track here (last year is the worst factor you can use in gauging fantasy success. Baseline talent meeting increased opportunity is the best). I agree with you on Forte, but you're wrong about Peterson.

I"d say it doesn't matter much. There's going to be very little difference between those post top 10 QBs. Ben, Rivers, Wilson, Kaep, Dalton...of those I'd say that Kaepernick has the most upside. But if you're waiting on a QB, I'd grab two of those guys and stream them. QBs are just so deep this year. You could even wait and grab a guy like McCown or Cassel and do very well. McCown and Cassel are going to finish much higher than people think.

Seems insane to me that anyone would rank another player over Adrian Peterson in standard leagues. In PPR I can see an argument for McCoy and Forte. I want no part of Charles this year.

I like FFToday, FootballGuys and John Paulsen over at 4for4. I really wish there were a site that would give you all the news from training camp, practices and the preseason. All sites have news blurbs, but they don't do a good enough job of reporting who's looking hot and who's not.

I keep hearing about "gambling" on Ball. In my opinion, he's one of the safer picks in the draft. A monkey could start in that offense and give you good production. And I'm not just talking about Manning, etc. That offensive line is damn good, too. I really like him at his ADP.

But IS he really the starter there? I'm assuming he'll get the first shot, but West is a helluva talent and it's going to be hard to keep him out of the game. These are situations I just avoid unless some sort of clarity arrives.

It's all about the weapons. When you consider Andy Dalton was top 3 last year, it's really not a crazy thing to think Cassel will be top 15. Mark my words...he'll go undrafted but become one of the hottest free agents 2, 3, 4 weeks in. QBs are deep as hell this year, but with all those weapons and a much more pass-happy system, I see Cassel pitching his tent in the Wilson, Roethlisberger, Dalton neighborhood this year. He'll finish ahead of some much bigger names.

I'll go with the biggest surprises in the top 10. QB - Matt Cassel RB - Carlos Hyde WR - Mike Wallace TE - Zach Ertz

As long as he's healthy, Cassel will start and be a top 15 QB this season. The reason Cassel will start over Bridgewater is twofold: 1. Cassel fits into and knows Norv's offense very well (Norv wanted him in Cleveland), and two, the Vikings will do everything to avoid last year's musical QB mess. What's more, Cassel has got a lot of RAC weapons to pad his stats. Patterson will take 5 yard passes to the house and Peterson will catch more balls than he ever has. And with a MOR defense, a decent offensive line and Jennings and Rudolph contributing, this offense will be top third.

IN 1. Foster 2. Murray 3. Ellington 4. Ball 5. Spiller OUT 1. Charles 2. Stacy 3. Gore 4. Lynch

QB - Carson Palmer, Josh McCown - QB23 and QB27 will both finish in top 15. Palmer top 10. RB - Ahmad Bradshaw, Carlos Hyde - Richardson is awful, Ballard on IR, Gore is old and Hunter on IR WR - Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks - Good talents in better situations, ridiculously undervalued TE - Jordan Reed, Heath Miller - Big time talent on big time offense; Miller overlooked veteran DST- Bucs, Vikings - Bucs defensive depth chart shockingly good; Vikings' Zimmer defense built for turnovers. Return game ain't bad either.

Same brain. You don't need consistency at all. You're looking for players who, when they score, score big. Consistency is irrelevant. I think you've nailed the players who personify that the most in CJ and Hllton. Vereen might be another. I think Patterson and Harvin will be like that. Kaepernick, Wallace, Stills, defenses with great return men.

Lots of good advice here so I won't repeat it. One thing nobody seems to mention is that if you're doing your auction online on a host site like Yahoo or ESPN, whatever, make note of those players whose dollar value on your host site is lower than the consensus value. Owners tend to avoid bidding too much above the estimated value on their sites. So, for example, Colin Kaepernick is estimated to be a $2 player on ESPN (my host site), but you know most other sites put his value much higher. If you identify 10 to 20 undervalued players like this you can end up getting more bang for your buck. One other thing I like to do is pre-draft a roster of players I truly believe in (a mix of undervalued and breakout candidates) and then try to draft that exact team. My drafted roster is often the same as I mapped out. This is why I love auction drafting. You can get every player you want. One more thing: even though I'm a big believer in drafting the team you want, you should be a little flexible. Have one or two similarly valued backups to each target in case of an insane bidding war. But if there's a player you absolutely HAVE TO have, nominate him first to establish what sacrifices you'll have to make down the roster. Especially if he's a "hot" player: Patterson, Gerhart. And if you nominate him early, there's a chance you can avoid the bidding war that will happen as more players at his position are off the board.

Depends on the player and how I feel about his level of upside, but my strategy has always been to draft them a round earlier than their ADP. Arian Foster's breakout year, his ADP was the 6th round. Took him in the 5th. Jimmy Graham's breakout year, his ADP was the 10th round. I took him in the 9th. You HAVE TO reach a little on players you believe in or you won't get them.