MudDawgs4Life

i have shady and karlos...thinking of benching both in favor of davante adams in my flex. situation tonight is simply too tough to call. not only is it a coinflip between shady and karlos, but it also might be a heads you lose, tails you lose situation at NY on a short week.

Stevie Johnson...6 for 80, 30ish yard td.

great trade, you are a savy GM. I think i'm going to have an open spot in my league next year...what's your email address?

honestly, i dont know what your point is. all i'm hearing is that beckham IS randy moss and will only get better. is that what you are saying? all you are doing is telling me i'm wrong and that randy moss had 17 tds. whereas i'm talking about draft strategy and i think he's unnecessary risk for top of the 2nd round over 4 other guys, maybe 5. i know how good randy moss is. he proved it over and over. if i didn't go after him in 1999 i'm sure i was interested in him after that, even though his sophomore year wasn't as good as his rookie year. when i say it took 6 years means that it's not like a guy starts at one point and just goes straight up, newsflash, he might have overachieved a bit. you're making it out like i think he's undraftable or something. Tell me, you such a big randy moss fan, did you draft him in 2007 his first year in New England coming off a 500 yard, 13 games played season in oakland or did he not have the upside like calvin doesn't have now apparently? we will just have to agree to disagree, after all, that's what makes a market. enjoy beckham, if he's there at 20 in my draft tomorrow night, i will take him.

Meant *smaller samples... Left an important word out there.

Thanks loonatlk I will need luck this year, most winners do get some luck. And I won 2 of my 3 leagues each of the past 2 years so you got that right also, I am a champ. If you think he's randy moss go ahead and draft him. Yes miss caught 17 tds his rookie year, took him 6 years to hit that mark again. Your second point makes no sense, did you read my post? I said it's not won in the first round, so why are you yelling the same thing at me? Take a xanex and read slowly here and you might be able to take your ODB blinders off. All I'm saying is with a small sample size comes risk. Sometimes it's enough, sometimes it's not. I'm not comparing him skill wise to victor Cruz, I'm just giving an example of what basing your hopes on a small sample set can do. Obviously he didn't play or make a catch rookie season. Then comes out put up 82/1536/9. 25 catches over 20 yards. Straight down from there. I'm not saying he's going to suck. But I'm a financial analyst by trade, I manage risk. Sample sets = greater risk. It's not my concept, it's a proven fact over time and if you don't apply it in fantasy football you are missing something.

You ODB fans are missing the point. Did he have an amazing 12 games last year? Yes. Has he shown tremendous athletic ability to make highlight reel catches? Yes. But drafting players in the top 15 overall is about managing risk. His sample size is too small. Dez, DT, Julio and even Calvin simply make more sense because they've shown they can do it and do it again. ODB might be the highest scoring WR in football this year. But he also might be 17, or 22 or something. His peer group has a larger sample set and is still in their prime, so why take the risk? There is no point. Cruz had an amazing season once only to not follow it up. He'll Dwayne bows looked unstoppable one year when he caught 15 tds. These are what we call outliers. Without doing it twice, there is risk there. Cj spiller was once a top 5 RB after one breakout season, he didn't repeat. Doug Martin anybody? What happened to him after his unworldly rookie season? Anybody? Buehler? Buehler? You need to take sample size into consideration in the top 3 rounds. I'm not saying older is better because you need to take age into consideration too when managing risk but the guys we are comparing him to see still in their primes 27-29 years old with 5ish real nfl seasons under their belt. And on the topic of sample size, Eli is a career 59% passer. That is not that good. It's average at best. Does anybody know how many tds the great almighty ODB scored in his 3 years at LSU? 12. Also not that good. Look, I like the guy, he's fun to watch and next year he might be a top 5 overall pick. But this year, I would rather take a guy with the same upside with low risk than a guy with medium risk. You don't win fantasy leagues in the first round, can you can lose them. Don't draft on last year's stats. Draft on the possibilities of this year given what we know...and the more certain the better early.

Giving up Ivory, cj2k, and torrey smith...getting deandre hopkins, fjax, isaih crowell. my skill positions: le'veon spiller lamar j. hill ivory cj2k DT marshall torrey brian quick mike evans cecil shorts so basically i would be backing up spiller, getting hopkins as my #3 WR and getting a flier on crowell. I love hopkins. only thing holding me back is ivory's potential obviously. thoughts? i will answer yours.

100% rivers. http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=437594

great call on pitta...thanks.

Cam and Smith. Take the two underdogs, so might need to throw more. Although as a NE fan, I would fear the home dog here in this one and take the pts, pats just seem off. here's mine... http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=437594

i would pull. buying low on martin and selling high on sproles. here's mine...thanks. http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=437594

dont own him anywhere, but let me ask you this. if you had calvin johnson on your team and he got hurt last week, and they said he was gonna be out 8 weeks, would you drop him? of course not. if you drop gordon, its essentially the same thing. if the owner that has him in my league(s) is off to a slow start, i will def start to pepper him with offers in a few weeks.

me too. smith vs. cousins AND my opponent has jamal charles. i would like to take JC's receiving game out of the equation, but think cousins has more upside. JC's week 15 was simply not the norm. he only had 3 receiving tds before last week and his receiving yards were 1/3 of his total on the season now (which means he upped his season receiving yards by about 50%). so torn.

debating cousins over wilson in one league and over alex smith/aaron rodgers (if he plays) in another. any advice? or should we just start the official Kirk Cousins Screwed Me in the Championship thread now?

aaron rodgers got hurt? why didnt anybody tell me?

it depends, if you're 2-6 and have a ton of holes in your lineup, trading Charles to a top team that can give you 3 solid players for him might be something to look at. if you're 6-2 or 5-3 and have decent depth already, trading charles isnt smart. there's rarely a clear answer when someone asks you, "should i trade X for Y", because it depends on too many other factors. everybody else on your roster factors in, your record factors in, the rules of your league factor in, the standings factor in...

would you guys start him over dariyous heyward-bey?

who are you picking up? and can you start TEs at flex? i would try to trade amendola for a TE for this week. not sure about your league, but pickings are so thin at TE in my league. even if its for a charles clay type, probably better than you could pick up off waivers. maybe you even land a jordan reed, that would be nice. good luck.

haha, yes of course. i place most of the blame on mmcoy, gio bernard, ruben randle, kris durham, and garret hartley. i lost by 1.34 pts....oh yeah, and the entire st. louis rams offense for not scoring on final drive on MNF.

picked up and started jones last week because of bmarshall and T.Y. bye weeks....still lost.

I would say they are similar to the chances of Lloyd Christmas ending up with Mary Swanson. Lloyd Christmas: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together? Mary Swanson: Well, Lloyd, that's difficult to say. I mean, we don't really... Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Mary Swanson: Not good. Lloyd Christmas: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? Mary Swanson: I'd say more like one out of a million. Lloyd Christmas: So you're telling me there's a chance!! Yes, i'm a bitter 3-5. Would have been 4-4 if the F-ing rams scored last night on their FIVE chances from the 6 yard line to end the game. I hate everyone.

3 qb league?

i have 50 faab left...it puts me fourth highest behind 2 teams with 55 (one of which is the dmart owner) and another team with 51 (my opponent this week with ray rice and woodhead on bye). thinking of going all in on him, too aggressive? i'm 3-4, must win situation, and am currently running lamar miller out at my flex, ugh. james would replace him. .5 ppr.

LAMAR MILLER