Freak Jones

I don't think it will be easy for Clayton to revert to form at all. He hasn't built any rapport with Simms, who doesn't have the experience yet to look for his 2nd and 3rd option. Plus, it was amazing how much positive talk there was about how Clayton was doing in camp in 2004. Much more than your average fluff. Whereas this year, all I've really heard is that he's in much better shape than last year. I would freakin hope so! I would be shocked if Clayton put up numbers close to 1180 and 7 like his rookie year unless Galloway gets hurt really early. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Matt Jones went for 1000 and 10. He was well on his way to being Byron's main red-zone target until Lefty went down. Now being the #1 receiver, he'll get alot more looks. If Matt Jones is your worst backup receiver, you're in great shape! Don't mess around.

I'd say yes he could easily reach 3500 yards. Not so sure on the 30+ TDs though. I'd max my projection on TDs to 28 or so. Anything beyond that would be gravy. I wouldn't hesitate taking him in the 6th either. He should be solid. Looks like his ADP is about the 7th though.

Great article. Great analysis. Obviously there will always be exceptions, but they are probably few and far between. I hadn't read any of the previous articles on the same topic, so if this has been covered, I apologize. Reading the article made me wonder if LT had had one of those excessive use seasons. In looking at his 2002 season, he did. He had 372 carries and 79 receptions. But man, it would have hurt to not picked him for 2003. 1645 rushing 725 receiving 17 total TDs You know these guys can't keep it up forever, but when you see that the exception is someone that we put Shaun in the same class as, it makes you hesitant to devalue them too much. On the other hand those were LT's second and third seasons in the league, so wear and tear is more of an issue with Shaun this year. Just my thoughts. I love trend analysis. Thanks for putting the time in on that man!

Yep, dangerous to himself. Sorry, I'm sure that's been done about 101 times already, but I hadn't done it yet. Seriously though, I'm sure he'll be good for at least 1 100 yard game and a TD before he wets himself. He should be thankful Parcells isn't his coach.

Yeah, I will be way disappointed if thats all he ends up with. I'm currently re-evaluating what I expect from him with the loss of Roaf. I don't necessarily think a 2000 total yard season is too unreasonable considering last year. Although I think the TDs could definitely come down. My greatest hope in the next month is that somebody tells Larry he's no longer being discussed as the probable #1 pick in most fantasy drafts. I want him to keep running with the CHIP on his shoulder baby! He's a BEAST when he's mad. Until Roaf retired, I wouldn't have drafted Shaun over Larry. Now, I probably still won't, but I totally agree that Shaun is a safer pick. I just prefer Larry's style.

I guess. Honestly though, I don't think he has to do much else on that one. A year with 1500 total yards and 12 TDs would probably put the Penn St. thing to bed for good. That won't be a problem. He's already probably got the best NFL stats of any Penn St. RB.

That may be true, I'm just still having a hard time getting over the "stabbed me in the back" comments at the end of 2004 when Holmgren was trying to win, and won the game to clinch a spot in the playoffs. Poor little Shaunie didn't get his rushing title so he had to cry to the reporters after the game. Not, we're going to prepare for the playoffs, but me, me, me.

Nice, I didn't catch that the first time I read it.

I think 2093 yards from scrimmage and 21 TDs qualifies as breaking the curse. If that doesn't break it, I'm not sure what you think does.

Alright, I gotcha. I'm not into the curse thing either. I think LJ has already pretty much destroyed the Penn St. curse. The other guys never even got anything started. After seeing the Red Sox come back down 3-0 to the Yankees and then winning the Series, I'm not going to avoid a fantasy football player because of a curse. So yeah, Shaun and the curse is worthless to me. LJ is definitely the riskier pick these days. My only real beef with Shaun is whether he is truly going to play with desire this year now that he has his rushing title, TD record and most importantly, his contract. Deep down, the guy is all about himself. Him first, team second. Now that he's got the contract, I hope he continues to play with the passion he did last year when he wasn't so much trying to lead his team as trying to get paid.

I saw that Dr. J started the thread, and Swampy had the only reply. I just had to see what kind of fireworks were going off in here. What happened? Did I miss a truce or something? Just kidding. It's early, so hopefully nothing to worry too much about. But I wish it was a mildly sprained ankle, rather than his right knee. Guess we'll know more in a day or two.

Yeah, that LJ guy hasn't done anything yet.

Love it man! RBs: Deluxe!!! QBs: Deluxe!!! WRs: pretty average, but who cares with those RBs. TE: Risky, but won't matter K: Who cares D: Won't matter Dude, you are set. The only place you will hurt is the Flex position. Is this your whole roster, or will you get to pick up some waiver selections for your bench. If so, I would get Turner and Bennett immediately if you can. Then I would try to trade one of your QBs for another RB that plays once the season starts for your flex spot. Sounds like you scared the $h!t out of everyone after you landed LT and LJ. I can't believe you got Bledsoe and Palmer for that price! Nice work!

Oh wise one, what will be Deuce's ADP before their actual first game on September 10th? Yeah......it might be a good idea not to operate any heavy equipment and or any motor vehicles until you come down from your enlightened state.

What he said. I think you need to try to get a little more value for TO. Especially looking at your receivers. Without TO, thats going to be painful. Plus, I really think TO is in for a monster year this year. Yes, he's getting older, but you might be able to get even more value at the end of this year if he does what he always does on the field. His off the field stuff should be ok, if only for one year. Clayton needs to build a rapport with Simms. It's one thing to have a dropoff in your second year, but what happened to him last year was just sick. I know he was injured/out of shape, but that was awful. He could definitely be a buy low candidate. But you might want to see if he does anything in a couple pre-season games before pulling the trigger on this one. Cause he didn't show anything at any point last year. I would have liked him so much better this year if he wouldn't have even played last year.

Definitely have to keep Benson and Roy. Roy has missed games in both of his 2 years. Not major, season ending injuries like CRog, but he does get banged up alot. That said, you have to give him a pass because of his size and potential.

So essentially, all you're giving up is the 4th pick in the 1st round for the 14th pick in the 1st round? If you're not planning on taking Clinton or Tiki with that pick then........ Do it before he changes his mind! Out of this you're basically switching 1st round picks and getting a decent #2 RB for your 7th rounder. I'm pretty high on Portis this year, but even if you kept the 4th pick, since LJ is being kept Clinton could/should go #3. That leaves Tiki, and the fact that you'd rather reach for Caddy anyway makes this a perfect situation for you and gives you plenty of drafting options for the later rounds. I doubt Caddy will drop to you at 14, although you never know. Most likely, DD, Westy or Willis. Here's the cool part though! Lets assume you get your other starting RB at the end of the 1st. Since at that point you've got your 2 starting RBs, in rounds 2-6 you now have the opportunity to focus on getting a couple top notch WRs and taking some high risk/reward guys like Foster, Bell, Benson, Palmer or Culpepper. Honestly, if I knew I would get Clinton at #4, I might stay put. But since that isn't for sure, I'd do the deal.

I'm trying to find info on where it says once they retire, it's official for a year. Any idea? I'm probably just in denial, but have they filed Roaf's paperwork with the league? If they haven't, maybe that leaves the door just that little bit ajar.

Gotta do it! Of course, if you finished close to the bottom the last year you brought it, be prepared for more teasing. For me its a must have. There's just no way I can keep all my research organized without having my spreadsheets setup on my laptop at the draft.

Yes, that is crazy. If people want to move him behind LT and Shaun now, I totally get it. I'm a complete LJ backer, but this one hurts alot. I still believe in LJ because of his talent. I think people saying this is going to lower his numbers significantly may just fuel his fire. The guy doesn't seem to need much of a reason to keep a chip on his shoulder. For me, I think taking LJ before LT at this point is a gamble. I may do it anyway, but probably not so much. LT was great even when Brees was garbage and I don't think Rivers is going to be horrible this year. I have alot of doubts on Shaun this year, so I'll probably still take LJ over Shaun. I also think Portis now is pretty close to being in this discussion. However, to move LJ any lower than 4 in my opinion is just insane!

There is no one year suspension for un-retiring. All the Ricky stuff was drug related. If Ricky hadn't retired, he would have been suspended for a full year related to violations of the substance abuse policy. Because he was officially retired for a year, they didn't hold the missed tests against him, only the one he actually failed before he retired. Because he waited until July of 2005 to comeback he only had to serve a 4-game suspension for the 3rd failed test.

Yep, probably so. I guess it got me fired up a little with all the take it to the help board posts the last few days. Cause its so much more fun to see threads about Mike Williams stay alive 7 days longer than they should.

Ok...so now theories about potential NFL trades should go the help board? Cause I sure didn't think he was asking if someone would trade Lelie for Porter straight up in FF. I do agree those teams aren't likely to work together on any deals anytime soon. Plus, I'm just not sure why the Raiders would want a non-possession receiver. Finally, if Porter's not happy as the #2 in Oakland, why would he be cool with going to Denver?

Yep, better solution! Probably stops all future acts of collusion by everybody else as well.

I would throw this trade out to the other owners in the league for their opinion. Tell them that you will probably approve it as is. The one thing I would find out though is how they would feel if the guy with team B now, ditches after this season. Because thats where this is probably going. If they have a problem with it, which they should, make it a deal that will be anulled with teams transferred back if current owner of Team B leaves in the next 2-3 years. Sounds like a freakin mess! Good luck! You'll have to let us know how this one turns out.