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The Bears are Back

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  5. Posted

    10 team 3-keeper league (lose the pick 2 rounds earlier than player was drafted last year), standard scoring, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, K, D

     

    My keepers are Stafford in the 5th round, Cruz in the 14th, and Antonio Brown in the 15th. So I want to go RB-RB with my first two picks. Top keepers on other teams include: Matthews, Gronk, Graham, Murray, Sproles, FJax

     

    I draft 8th. I'm really hoping CJ2K or McFadden make it that far, but I expect the draft to go something like this:

     

    1) A-Rod

    2) Foster

    3) Rice

    4) McCoy

    5) CJ

    6) CJ2K

    7) DMC

    8) ??

     

    The #6 and #7 teams likely won't take Brady or Brees based on their keepers and history. If they do, then one of my 2 targets will make it to me.

     

    There is a not a ton of trading in this league, so taking one of the QB's and making a trade probably wouldn't get me fair value.

     

    So- my options are below:

     

    Forte

    Charles

    Lynch

    AP

    Trent

    MJD

    SJAX

    Martin

     

    I don't think any of them are worthy of the #8 spot, but I think I will have to reach for one of them... and hopefully get another on the way back.

     

    How would you rank that list?

  6. Posted

    The reason I started this thread is because I'm picking 8 overall in a 14-team money league and I don't like many of the likely options at this spot. I'm thinking the following will be gone by my pick:

     

    Foster

    McCoy

    Rice

    Rodgers

    Brady

     

    Other than being fairly certain those five are off the board I really couldn't say. That means my best available options at RB are likely to be:

     

    CJ2K

    Matthews

    MJD

    Trent

     

    At least one of these will be gone by the time they reach my pick. I don't really know how I'd rank them, since I wouldn't call any of these players a slam dunk. I guess MJD or CJ are the "safe" choices but I'm tempted to swing for the fences with one of the others.

     

    I really hate taking a QB this early and Calvin is the only wideout I'd even consider using a first round pick on this year.

     

    :dunno:

     

    What are your thoughts on Forte? Granted, I'm a homer, but I feel like he's one of the safest pickls in the 8-15 range. Sure, Bush will get the GL carries, but Forte never converts those anyway. He's usually good for a good chunk of receiving yards, and with Marshall in the fold there may be more room to run. I pick 8th this year as well. I'm hoping CJ falls to me but I'm considering Forte if he doesn't. Then maybe Richardson or DMC coming back. My league is only 10 teams though, so you might not have that option.

  7. Posted

    I'd still say THIS looks a lot better:

     

    QB- Stafford

    RB- #8 pick (McFadden? Richardson?)

    RB- #13 pick (Forte? Charles?)

    WR- Victor Cruz

    WR- #28 pick

    WR- Antonio Brown

    RB/WR- #33 pick or #53 pick

    TE- #33 or #53 pick

     

    Bench- #68, #73 pick, #93 pick

     

    Foster is really nice but I would trade him for McFadden AND Forte. Plus you get Antonio Brown in the 8th round.

     

    I actually really want to agree with you, I just wish there were less questions with the RBs that will be available. Of the guys you listed, Forte is the most solid in my opinion, but his upside is limited by his poor goal line performance and the presence of Bush. all the other guys have serious question marks. If I knew CJ would make it to #8, I think I would feel better. I'm not super high on him, but I think he will improve from last year and be good value. I guess MJD would be OK at #8 as well.

  8. Posted

    Any more thoughts after I posted the above info?

     

    I'm still leaning towards keeping Foster with the #8 & 13 picks. I'd have Foster, Stafford, and Cruz. With the 28th and 33rd pick I'd take the best RB and WR available. #48 pick would be Stafford, then at #53, 68, 73 I can get a 3rd solid WR and a couple upside RBs. Then I'd take Tate if still available at #88, and either a TE or more WR/RB depth at #93.

     

    Basically, my starting lineup and beginning of the bench would look like this:

     

    QB: Stafford

    RB: Foster

    RB: #28 (SJAX?)

    WR: Cruz

    WR: #33 (Dez Bryant?)

    WR/RB: #53 (VJAX?)

    TE: #93 (Tamme?)

     

    Bench: #68 (Starks?)

    Bench: #73 (Best?)

    Bench: #88 (hopefully Tate)

  9. Posted

    I know this will take some work on your end but shouldn't be too hard to do. Can you list the first two rounds of picks from the teams in your league last year in the order that they will pick this year? This will give us an idea of who the teams ahead of you have and what would potentially be available at your picks in the first two rounds. Knowing this would make it much easier to get you teh advice that you need.

     

    I'll do the first 3, since a 3rd round pick last year = 1st round pick this year. !st from last year = 1st & 2nd. 2nd round last year = 1st & 3rd this year.

     

    Order 2011 1st 2011 2nd 2011 3rd

    1 Roddy White Aaron Rodgers Mark Ingram

    2 Andre Johnson Micheal Turner Phillip Rivers

    3 Chris Johnson Greg Jennings Drew Brees

    4 Michael Vick Darren McFadden Ahmad Bradshaw

    5 LeSean McCoy Mendenhall Blount

    6 Ray Rice Steven Jackson Forte

    7 Jamaal Charles Larry Fitz Vjax

    8 Arian Foster Hakeem Nicks Gates

    9 Calvin Johnson Jones Drew Mike Wallace

    10 Adrian Peterson Tom Brady Frank Gore

     

    sorry for the bad formatting

    Additionally, as mentioned above, the following possible top 30 guys will almost certainly be kept using later round picks.

     

    Ryan Matthews

    Marshawn Lynch

    Cam Newton

    Gronk

    wes Welker

    Demarco Murray

    AJ Green

    Jordy Nelson

    Jimmy Graham

    Julio Jones

    Fred Jackson

    Aaron Hernandez

  10. Posted

    I agree with you stew, I guess my only hesitation is if he ends up with dmc and Charles let's say. That's a risky duo. Is almost rather have foster

     

    That's exactly the question I'm struggling with. There is more potential with the #8 and #13 picks, but also more risk. If I keep Foster, I would reach to make sure I get Tate earlier that his ADP (if his owner doesn't use his 10th round pick to keep him). Then I have one stud RB locked in all season (in theory).

  11. Posted

    This is indeed only the second year of this league since we switched from redraft to keeper.

     

    I think it's safe to say that there's no chance of me getting Foster at #8, unless all 7 guys before me burn their pick on a keeper.

     

    The guys in my league are generally pretty conservative, so I would expct that they don't burn 2 of their top picks on keepers.

     

    You guys are right that I need to sit down and really analyze who is likely to be kept. A quick analysis makes me think picks 1-4 will not keep their top picks from last year, so they will be drafting in that round. #5 has McCoy, and would be facing the same decision I am- Is McCoy worth #5 and #15? #6 is facing the same question with Ray Rice.

     

    Top 25ish players I expect to be kept (because of lower draft positions last year) include Matthews, Lynch, Cam, Gronk, Welker, Murray, AJ Green, Jordy. With the exceptions of Rice and McCoy above, the owners of the top studs are picking in the top 4, so I expect them to take their chances in the draft.

  12. Posted

    Wow - Can I join your league? You have the best player in the league, and you're not going to keep him? At least think of all the trade opportunities a guy like foster brings to the table, why would you give that away?

     

    Keeping Foster is not giving up #8 and #13. You get to keep Foster, the #1 overall ranked player, as your 1st round #8 pick, so you're only giving up the #13 pick. There is a considerable value difference from the #8 pick to the #1 pick, especially when you consider how many of the other top tier players are going to be kept by other owners. If I were in your shoes, I'd try to get a feel for what players are going to be available to you at the #8 and #13 pick. Odds are, with the other players that are being kept, these players aren't as valuable as you think they are.

     

    You're probbaly right... so I'll go Foster, Stafford, Cruz. Pretty nice nucleus!

     

    This is our first year switching to a keeper league, so I definitely haven't adjusted my thinking completely! I was going for the homerun with a guy like Williams instead of the smart move.

     

    Thanks for your help!

  13. Posted

    So your considering A: A guy coming off an 1100+ yard season, in his first year with a chance to play. B: A potential #10 TE, like this is a rare find. or C: A 12th Round RB coming off a major injury and no NFL experience.

     

    You can keep 3 players and you're seriously considering this?

     

    Just out of curiosity, if you took Stafford in the 7th round last year, what happened to the players you drafted in rounds 1-6? Why aren't you keeping any of them?

     

    Well, when you put it that way it does seem pretty simple. My draft was pretty awful last year.

     

    My top 6 last year (Round 1 picks cost you this years 1&2. Round 2 costs you 1&3)

     

    1) Arian Foster (wil cost 1&2)

    2) Nicks - traded

    3) Gates

    4) Felix Jones

    5) Harvin

    6) Beanie Wells - Traded

     

    Going through all that makes me wonder, should I keep Foster and give up my first 2 picks? They would be #8 and 13 overall. I wouldn't get my second pick until #28 overall.

  14. Posted

    I'd keep Antonio Brown. He ought to be a starter for you this year, and he should be a good value for an 8th round pick.

     

    That was my first thought, but his ADP is in the 70s, so I'm not really gaining much there.

     

    I was thinking Cook (who is projected as #10 TE in some rankings) might be good value.

     

    Or Ryan Williams, who likely would go in round 12 or so.

  16. Posted

    10 team league, standard scoring. Start QB,RB,RB,RB/WR,WR,WR,TE,K,D.

     

    We can keep 3 players each year, with that player costing us the draft pick 2 rounds earlier than they were drafted last year.

     

    I pick 8th this year.

     

    Here are my options, and the round they will cost me. If I use two 18th round guys, I'll lose my 17th round pick as well.

     

    Stafford (5)

    Antonio Brown (8)

    Kendall Hunter (12)

    Gerhart (16)

    Cruz (18)

    Tebow (18)

    Jared Cook (18)

    Ryan Williams (18)

    David Nelson (18)

     

    Cruz in the 18th round is the obvious no-brainer, and I think Stafford in the 5th probably is too (but let me know if you disagree). Who would you guys recommend as the 3rd?

  21. Posted

    Who cares whether he allowed the ground to pop the ball out or not, the ground caused the ball to pop out. Thus he did not maintain possession of the football. Yes, you can argue that it should have been a touchdown before that, but then I don't know why you're trying to argue that he "allowed" the ball to pop out or that he "gave up control of the ball."

     

     

     

    No it's not. One ref called it a touchdown at first, but the official call on the field was an incomplete pass. Who knows, maybe if the call on the field was a touchdown, that wouldn't have been overturned either.

     

    I stand corrected. I guess I missed that while I had my head buried in my hands. I'm guessing it would have been overruled it they had called it a TD- the evidence was clearly indisputable with regards to the rule in question.... though I still agree the rule needs to be fixed, possibly to allow a level of judgement from the officials.

  24. Posted

    I can start 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 Flex. I have 6 appealing options and can't decide who to bench. I can make a case for just about any of them except Moss (assuming Brady is OK). What do you think? Standard scoring, non-PPR.

     

    Mendenhall vs. ATL

    Shonn Green vs. BAL

    Forte vs. DET

     

    Moss vs. CIN

    S Smith (CAR) @ NYG

    Colston vs. MIN

     

     

    Thanks!

  25. Posted

    This one is simple...take Greene and run! Foster's value is probably the highest its going to get (unless he turns into the next Turner). There's no telling what Houston will do with their RB's. That is a passing team. A couple of fumbles from Foster and Slaton could end up starting. I like Foster...I just dont trust their run game. However, the Jets ran the ball over 600 times last season! Greene is gauranteed his carries, even though LT will get his share too. Both RB's are somewhat unproven but Ill take the RB on a running team over an RB on a passing team! Go with Greene and dont look back!

     

    This is kind of how I'm leaning. thanks to all of you! I think I'm going to make the deal. I have Foster in my other league anyway so I'll still be in good shape if he blows up.

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