9-Route's Question about Leinart

[Wildman 0]

wildman,

 

leinart has poise, accuracy, command, and 2 fab receivers (along with a new stud hb). we've seen what the denny green playbook can do for a qb; we've also seen polian's choices flourish at the hb position (thomas, mfaulk, edge).

 

can he reach the levels at qb that you feel addai can reach at the hb position? thanks

 

My take:

 

While I graded Leinart below Cutler and Young, the score had a lot to do with his arm strength. Leinart is more athletic than people see, but he doesn't get good velocity on the ball while on the move. I'm more than willing to admit that of the several games I watched, his arm strength got better, but it was never quite good enough to make the type of throws under heavy pressure into tight spots that Jay Cutler or Young can make with their arm strength. This is the main difference between the three players and their potential. If Leinart continues to regain/improve his arm strength to the point he can begin to make more of the stick throws, then he would have earned the highest grade of all the QBs I evaluated this fall.

 

So will he be a stud in Green's offense? I think he'll get a chance to be good, but I don't believe he'll be as good right away as people say. I'd compare him to Drew Brees at the beginning of his career--very smart, poised, and good anticipation. He'll be better than Brees reading defenses from the beginning, but I don't believe he'll even be as accurate as Brees. To me, that means he'll have some strong games and get people excited, but them come back down to earth in a big way for a while. Eventually, I think he can be on the level of a guy like Trent Green--very good, but not great. Of course, if you put Green in the Cardinals offense, you might have a 30+ TD guy right there.

 

I think it's still very much Warner's team for this year. If Leinart gets his chance, I think he'll be the type of guy that can throw for 3500-3700 yards and 25 TDs once he has a year or so to adjust. Good numbers. At first, I think he's going to throw a lot of ints and give up some costly fumbles because he doesn't throw well on the run and he doesn't protect the ball well when moving in the pocket--though he's pretty nifty in the pocket in terms of movement.

[Jimmy "Superfly" Snuka 0]

I remember the NC game a couple years ago when USC crushed Oklahoma. Some of his passes in that game were some of the best I've seen from a college QB. Leading receivers downfield on the money again and again.

[Wildman 0]

That's cool, but I'm not talking about fly patterns 25-35 yards downfield. Those aren't high velocity throws. He throws those pretty well, but for the 7 games I studied and the several others I watched, Leinart was in situations where offenses were so focused on the run, he appeared to lead receivers perfectly because no one was within 5-yards of the receiver!

 

I think it's going to be more telling how accurate he truly is once he has to face DBs that will always be in his receiver's back pocket. Some of his "great" throws in his career where not so great when you break it down.

 

For those that are really high on Leinart, I've been accused of being overly critical. It may turn out I was, but at this point I feel like it's pretty balanced criticism. I admit the guy could turn out to be the best of the bunch if he proves beyond a shadow of a doubt he can throw the deep out, skinny post, or improvise high velocity throws while on the move as well as transition the rest of his game to the NFL. If not, I think he turns into a more athletic version of Brad Johnson bordering on Trent Green but without Green's arm.

 

Not a bad quarterback for any team, but no Manning, Brady, or McNabb...

[CHAOS 0]

That's cool, but I'm not talking about fly patterns 25-35 yards downfield. Those aren't high velocity throws. He throws those pretty well, but for the 7 games I studied and the several others I watched, Leinart was in situations where offenses were so focused on the run, he appeared to lead receivers perfectly because no one was within 5-yards of the receiver!

 

I think it's going to be more telling how accurate he truly is once he has to face DBs that will always be in his receiver's back pocket. Some of his "great" throws in his career where not so great when you break it down.

 

For those that are really high on Leinart, I've been accused of being overly critical. It may turn out I was, but at this point I feel like it's pretty balanced criticism. I admit the guy could turn out to be the best of the bunch if he proves beyond a shadow of a doubt he can throw the deep out, skinny post, or improvise high velocity throws while on the move as well as transition the rest of his game to the NFL. If not, I think he turns into a more athletic version of Brad Johnson bordering on Trent Green but without Green's arm.

 

Not a bad quarterback for any team, but no Manning, Brady, or McNabb...

 

Not singling you out specifically, but why do people constantly downgrade Trent Green. He is the only guy to throw for 4,000 yds over the last 3 seasons. If not for having the TD record setter and LJ on his team he would have more TDs as well.

 

Leinart will dream of being as good as Trent.

[Wildman 0]

I think Green is a very good quarterback. I think you're right, it would be a complement to Leinart if he can be as good...to me that's the best case scenario. I guess I just don't see Green as being on the level of the three I mentioned.

 

It probably is unfair. At the moment, I can't think of a great answer as to why Green is a notch below these other players. Anyone?

[escobante 0]

While I graded Leinart below Cutler and Young, the score had a lot to do with his arm strength.

 

You "graded" these guys? Come on, you have no clue. What, you work out with these guys? It's fun to post and all, but lets stop pretending you know more than what you read on the net and watch on TV.

 

Of course, post your opinion, people are interested in that, but don't think that it is some special skill. When Leinhart's coaches and teammates start talking smack about his arm, then maybe it means something, but a bunch of couch potatoes talking about a guys potential is meaningless. Talk about what he has done. And in Leinhart's case, it says quite a bit. I don't care for the guy personally, but talk about his stats or something, not how you can see the velocity on his ball isn't what it should be. Looking at the success he's had, seems like maybe he threw most of his balls exactly where they needed to be.

 

Again, it is your opinion, so feel free, but temper the certainty a bit would be my suggestion.

[xxx 0]

You "graded" these guys? Come on, you have no clue. What, you work out with these guys? It's fun to post and all, but lets stop pretending you know more than what you read on the net and watch on TV.

 

[Parja 0]

You "graded" these guys? Come on, you have no clue. What, you work out with these guys? It's fun to post and all, but lets stop pretending you know more than what you read on the net and watch on TV.

 

Uhh, noob, might want to check out the "The 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio--Get It Here" link in Wildman's sig before the next time you spark up your shiny little flamethrower.

[Parkers99 0]

but talk about his stats or something, not how you can see the velocity on his ball isn't what it should be.

 

 

Yes Wildman, your problem is that you don't talk about enough stats!

 

 

I'm gong to be laughing about this all season

[escobante 0]

Uhh, noob, might want to check out the "The 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio--Get It Here" link in Wildman's sig before the next time you spark up your shiny little flamethrower.

 

What, because the guy has been playing FF for 10 years and is a "FF Expert"? Please.

 

You think I hurt his feelings? I have read his stuff for the past year and I am sure he has bigger critics than I. I like his math stuff (i.e. "crank score" etc...) because it is based on something you can measure. But unmeasurable observations don't rise to the same level of certainty.

 

Like I said, it is his opinion and obviously people are interested in that (I read and consider everyone's opinion - whether I intend it or not, they all impact my thinking one way or another), but to say you "graded" a player implies some measurables on the subject. How about letting us know how far he can throw the ball compared to others. Or how about that aforementioned velocity? Velocity is a measurable, not a subjective criteria. Lets get some numbers out there? What there are none? Sounds like we should move on to the numbers we do have, which until he starts sucking it up, look pretty impressive.

 

But you are right, I can probably tone it down myself. Maybe a candle instead of a flamethrower. But don't be fooled, "FF Expert", do you take classes for that. Any intelligent person with some time who is interested in Football can be a "FF Expert". I mean, one prominent magazine had Drew Bennett being the #1 receiver last year.

[xxx 0]

But you are right, I can probably tone it down myself.

 

 

Instead of toning it down how about shutting it down completely?

 

[Parja 0]

stuff

 

Click on the link in his sig. Really. Not kidding.

[Wildman 0]

No harm, no foul. Like Escobante figures, it didn't hurt my feelings. It's his opinion. But I won't temper my opinion to make it sound uncertain. Especially if I feel strongly about my opinion. If I'm wrong, call me on it. But neither of us will see for sure about Leinart as a pro until the games start

 

You and I may have a difference in opinion about what makes a good observation. I'm willing to stand behind my opinions because I truly put in the time. I do believe you made it sound like I sat around with a beer one hand and a remote in the other, all the while in an easy chair with a note pad in my lap copying little nuggets that Mel Kiper has thrown my way as I watch 10-second highlights.

 

The games don't lie. If you study the games, you see the skills present, absent, or potential to acquire them. While you're right that I don't coach, play, or sit and watch every player in practice. I don't need to do this at all. I created a system to score players based on common criteria for their position. I clearly defined in writing each criteria point and watched about 40 hours of games per week for 8 months focused on those players I evaluated and used the rules I set up.

 

This way of monitoring performance (which is basically what play evaluations are) is actually nothing more than an adaptation of a system that many corporations use to judge employee performance. It's taught as a best practice in many circles. Now I understand the game of football is different that things employees do in a corporation that say, sells widgets, but football is a systematic game with techniques and fundamentals coaches teach for each position to perform at its best.

 

Monitoring performance is an attempt to place an objective system around a subjective thing. So it will have it's faults. That's why the NFL will pick the Troy Davis' over Terrell Davis' or the Carmazzi's over the Brady's, but a system helps you learn where you goof up. It also gives you a way to limit the variance in your mistakes.

 

I can bring up tons of players with great college stats that don't mean anything about their NFL abilities and vice versa. So talking stats when evaluating a player is only one part of the equation.

 

I guess you were looking for me to count the number of throws Leinart made that were complete to a college WR with 3 yards of cushion that would have hit the backside of a DB in tight coverage in the NFL. While I didn't quite go to that extent in my project this year, I do feel confident about my viewpoints. If you define a desired behavior in writing so it's black and white, then if you observe someone attempt to perform that behavior the result will either be right or wrong.

 

If I'm wrong, oh well. I learn something from it and move forward. But don't tell me I should state all my opinions with "Maybe I could be wrong, but... or I am not confident about what I'm saying but here it goes."

 

If you don't like what I write, don't read it. But I'm going to keep stating my take regardless and with certainty about my opinion.

 

Just do me a favor, don't tell me that I just rehash info I read from other people because you don't have your facts straight--if you that's truly what you think in regards to this subject. In fact, I purposely didn't read a draft publication until I finished mine. I was too busy anyway...

 

 

Plus to add to the point about mistakes. It's often the mistakes of GMs that didn't watch the games. Scouts saw Brady and Bulger as better prospects than where they were drafted...they were the ones that watched the film.

 

But you are right, I can probably tone it down myself. Maybe a candle instead of a flamethrower. But don't be fooled, "FF Expert", do you take classes for that. Any intelligent person with some time who is interested in Football can be a "FF Expert". I mean, one prominent magazine had Drew Bennett being the #1 receiver last year.

 

 

Any intelligent person with some time who is interested in medicine, law, or engineering can do these things too! Just costs more money to learn...

 

I just happen to put all my available time and passion into this subject. I never claimed to be an expert. I believe I'm pretty good at it, and have helped some other people out on occassion. I'll be wrong, too. Heck, I had Bennett rated pretty high last year.

 

But at the point is I put in the time and try to back up my opinions with sound observations. Now you don't agree about my observation being sound, but that's just where we'll agree to disagree.

[DaveJ 0]

Wildman,

 

Interesting breakdown on Leinart and while I won't take a pot shot at you for your analysis, I do think you are placing too much emphasis on arm strength. There is no question when you line the three of them up, that Leinart comes up in 3rd place behind them, as he would be with any number of NFL QB's like Big Ben, Carson Palmer etc...

 

Where I find your analysis lacking is that it focuses on his ability to get the ball downfield purely from a power standpoint. You overlook the fact that it takes more than armstrength to make a QB succesful, things such as having enough zip on the ball to get it to the WR. He will not wow anyone with his strength, but he certainly has enough to make most of the throws he needs to in the NFL. He doesn't have the luxury of relying upon that to get him out of trouble though, ala Brett Favre and others who can throw cross field, pound it into tight coverages and the like. He will be more of a finese passer, such as Gannon, Young and Montana. All these guys had average to slight above average arms, but they were very accurate and smart with the FB when they made their throws. They were routinely able to get the ball in spots where the D couldn't get at it. Leinart is a very accurate passer (if there is a defender in the region or not) and he is very shifty in the pocket avoiding pressure. He is also a very smart QB using the supporting staff around him and making the most of it. THAT is why I think he will be very successful in ZONA. He has very large, fast and aggressive WR's who go AFTER the ball instead of waiting for it to come to them. They use their bodies to position themselves to make the catches. He also has a great supporting staff of coaches and a system that will keep him from having to make throws he doesn't have the arm to make. You will likely see him throwing the ball away rather than forcing it, dumping it off to short routes instead of tossing it up downfield and for his WR's to go after it.

 

He will have his share of challenges, as you have mentioned. He will need to adapt to more pressure on the NFL level, faster and more dynamic DB's, more confusion in the secondary and blitzes. Things that he dealth with very well in College, but nothing at the level he will see in the NFL. I think he is smart enough, confident enough and has the skills from a mechanics point of view to learn to deal with these issues.

 

I agree with your view that this won't be the year he takes the reins however, I think Warner is the guy and barring injury, he will their primary QB this year. I think he will get his shot next year or the year after as Warner is phased out. Unlike in STL, Warner is now coming to the end of his career and I think he will be more supportive of grooming the guy behind him than he was with Trent Green or Marc Bulger, situations where he really though he had more in the tank.

 

All this said, I think that Cutler will end up being the best pure QB out of this bunch, based on his skills and ability to power the ball downfield but he will have a longer learning curve picking up the untangibles that Leinart already has in place. Young could end up being the most dynamic and exciting QB though, due to his athletic abilities, combined with his skillset. All 3 of these guys will be forces in the future, but in different ways and using different methods.

 

Leinart - Young, Montana, Gannon

Young - McNabb, Culpepper, Vick

Cutler - Palmer, Big Ben

 

All those QB's are highly successful, winners and top notch QB's but all of them had different styles and skills to get there.

[Wildman 0]

Honestly, I think everyone else is placing too much emphasis on Leinart's arm strength. I'm just highlighting what he won't be able to do, but others seem to be glossing over the fact I said he'd grade out as the best of the bunch if it were better. That's how tight of a difference it is among the three top QBs in the draft, IMO.

 

He's still a good prospect with a lot of potential to do well. I agree with your assessment with Young, Gannon, etc. In fact my favorite QB in this draft is Bruce Gradowski, a guy with maybe slightly better armstrength than Leinart.

 

You and I have a different take on the concept of armstrength. I believe armstrength is both velocity on last second throws over at least an intermediate distance or long throws of distances of at least 40 yards. Leinart had touble with both for various reasons but not enough to turn him into a complete bust. Just enough that he'll struggle with certain throws under pressure. What makes a receiver "open" in college is different than in the pros. I just didn't see Leinart have that kind of accuracy when he couldn't anticipate the throw.

 

This is all splitting hairs, though. I'm just highlight that Young and Cutler will be able to use their arm and mobility to make big plays that Leinart won't be able to do on his own. Those 'zona skill players will help him out a ton--I agree.

 

I'm also holding back other details that are available to see in the RSP, but I would like to give my take on somewhat of a basis here when it comes to the rookie skill players.

[escobante 0]

You and I may have a difference in opinion about what makes a good observation. I'm willing to stand behind my opinions because I truly put in the time. I do believe you made it sound like I sat around with a beer one hand and a remote in the other, all the while in an easy chair with a note pad in my lap copying little nuggets that Mel Kiper has thrown my way as I watch 10-second highlights.

 

True, I generalized on that. I can see from the stuff you have posted you spend alot of time on your analysis. I mentioned your other articles specifically because they are interesting and insightful.

 

I don't agree with you at all on Leinhart or if it is possible to evaluate arm strength by watching game tape. But the rest of my second post was mostly directed at the guy to whom I was responding. I think he was pointing at your resume as a way of saying, don't criticize this guys, he's a guru. Which of course is bunk.

 

But you are right, I have opinions that I express with conviction, so do you.

 

I was too harsh in tone, obviously ruffled some folks. Sorry 'bout that. I forget the audience at times. I usually post in a league with other guys who like to jab each other all of the time. Kind of hard to switch modes sometimes.

[Wildman 0]

True, I generalized on that. I can see from the stuff you have posted you spend alot of time on your analysis. I mentioned your other articles specifically because they are interesting and insightful.

 

I don't agree with you at all on Leinhart or if it is possible to evaluate arm strength by watching game tape. But the rest of my second post was mostly directed at the guy to whom I was responding. I think he was pointing at your resume as a way of saying, don't criticize this guys, he's a guru. Which of course is bunk.

 

But you are right, I have opinions that I express with conviction, so do you.

 

I was too harsh in tone, obviously ruffled some folks. Sorry 'bout that. I forget the audience at times. I usually post in a league with other guys who like to jab each other all of the time. Kind of hard to switch modes sometimes.

 

We're cool! Nothing you said was seriously insulting. I think we get on here for some good debate. It's easy not to switch gears when you go from busting on guys you know in a league for many years and folks on a message board that's a bit more impersonal.

 

I'm sure you'll be the first to let me know when Leinart makes a high-velocity throw with perfect accuracy in tight coverage!

[9-Route 0]

all i did was ask a question, and i started a fire!!! [just kidding] thanks for the topic, matt, i appreciate it. an opportunity to learn from your discussions and conclusions is always a dandy time for me.

 

some great commentary thus far. it is pretty obvious the verdict on leinart will come when we see him in action. i was low on him until i saw his campus workout. my impression was that he displayed nice athleticism rolling out, and demonstrated velocity with his trademark accuracy up to 40yds (he does not have 50+yd range, as did palmer, so i knew he was not a good fit for moss and raiders; but, he does potentially have the game to rack up a lot of yds and scores with 2 polished, rangy wrs.) this was of particular interest and surprise to me, and what vaulted my interest in him as a potential fantasy/dynasty star.

 

i recall last yr some talk about how muhammed would have been a great fit for atlanta, because vick is inaccurate, and moose has a very wide catching range with his frame, arms, and reach. i kind of liken this to leinart's scenario in arizona: true, he may not have the nfl caliber velocity for pinpoint accuracy on all throws (including last second, deep out, or on the move), but his polish and accuracy may be enough to deliver not only a catchable ball but one that fitz and boldin can do somethig with afterward (RAC).

 

the trent green and brad johnson comparisons are actually very spot on i think. leinart could easily post a lot of high yardage seasons (4000+ like trent does) or very efficient seasons (high td/int ratios and high comp%, like brad johnson has done). the key is that these levels will only be reached at minimum in yr2. i can see him develop as did palmer (sit 1 yr and learn behind a veteran who posts 3400/26) or eli (play 8 games, make mistakes, and then emerge to post 3700/24).

 

the denny green playbook and track record with qb development definitely has piqued my interest and raised some interpositional comparisons.

[biscuitman357 0]

I think the arm strength issue is moot.

 

Jeff George could throw the ball 50 yards on one knee. The guy had an absolute cannon of an arm. But theres more than arm strength to factor.

 

Leinart is going into a good situation. Hes got a vet QB to learn from and Warner, by all accounts, is a good guy. You could do worse than learn from a vet like Warner. Denny Green has good success with QBs in his track record. The Cards have a premiere running back and two very good WRs. Yes the O line isn't great, but its not as bad as what Alex Smith has to suffer through.

 

My biggest questions are -

 

1) Can he convert third downs under pressure ( most third downs don't push 40+ yards, so its safe to say hes throwing within his range most of the time) ?

 

2) Can he keep a high completion percentage?

 

3) Can he hold onto the ball, can he prevent dumb turnovers?

 

4) Can he establish the respect and fear of his lockerroom game to game?

 

Why was Rothlisberger successful? He kept drives moving when he had to, he made high percentage throws, he didn't cough up the ball often and his teammates respected his pocket and team management. I think very little had to do with Rothlisberger chucking the ball 50 yards downfield every other play.

 

Leinart got alot of starts in college, a good thing for a young QB in the NFL. I think hes got limitations but its up to Green and the Cards to make the most of his positives.

 

Remember we are talking about a league that thought Jerry Rice was too slow coming out of Mississippi. He was fast enough in games. I think its less important to ask if Leinart's arm is strong enough to make a 40-50 yard throw, its if his arm is strong enough to make the throws in the system hes playing in. Because if Denny Green is running a West Coast Offense or a hybrid WCO, the onus is still on the WRs to get good YAC (yards after the catch) to make the offense work. Montana and Young did not have cannon arms. They were accurate and gave their WRs a chance to get into the open field.

[SoloMatisse 0]

I agree with the notion that we can get a little too technical when we break down a player's career prospects/skills. But lets not overcomplicate this one. Leinart is 6'5, he's mobile, he sees the field well, and he'll be throwing to Fitzgerald and Boldin and handing off to James. My gut feeling tells me he'll be just fine. My brain tells me if you dont get this man on your dynasty or keeper league team now, you'll be kicking yourself in the middle of next season.

 

Talking about velocity....Steve Young never threw with much velocity, but he threw sharp, crisp passes......to some guy named Rice and then Owens. Leinart is in a similar position with similar arm strength.

[Parja 0]

Talking about velocity....Steve Young never threw with much velocity, but he threw sharp, crisp passes......to some guy named Rice and then Owens. Leinart is in a similar position with similar arm strength.

 

Very true. I've gotta think Zona would be content with Leinart being the second coming of Steve Young.

[CA_7 0]

Again, it is your opinion, so feel free, but temper the certainty a bit would be my suggestion.

 

Temper your arrogance would be my suggestion

 

Seems to me that Wildman provides a point of view with data and examples to back up his theories while all you do is bash his opinion without providing any substance behind your point of view

 

I have no problem listening to a poster who bashes someone's opinion but at least provide something meaningful besides "you are wrong because Leinhart was successful".