Steven Jackson Projections

[mec411 0]

If the Rams keep him out - like I expect them to- until week 10, I do not think 1000 yards is out of the realm of possibility. He currently has 233 yrds. If he is healthy in the remaining weeks, he would have to - check the math here - average about 95 yards per game to hit the 1000 yard mark. Granted his line must improve but he does have some favorable matchups when he returns:

 

10 @NO - #14 Run D - 105 ypg - ACTUAL: 76, 1; 5 rec for 24 yards

11 @SF - #22 Run D - 122 ypg - ACTUAL: 92; 4 rec for 20 yards

12 SEA - #18 Run D- 116 ypg - ACTUAL: 90, 1; 3 rec for 15 yards

13 ATL - #24 Run D - 132 ypg - ACTUAL: 96 ,1; 4 rec for 71 yards

14 @CIN - #29 Run D - 145 ypg ACTUAL: 91; 4 rec for 26 yars

15 GNB - #12 Run D - 99 ypg ACTUAL: 143, 1; 4 rec for 27 yars

16 PIT - #2 Run D - 72 ypg

17 @ARI - #11 Run D - 98 ypg

 

Above represents the matchups in each week and each teams rushing D ranking and yards yielded per contest (per ESPN), respectively. If you assume he comes back in week 10 healthy, he has above average matchups in in all but two contests (assuming 100 yards is the favorable/unfavorable cut off) week 15 and 16. At first glance, you would say these two games are not great as they are in the playoffs, but most playoffs start in week 14 and Cincy represents a very good matchup, likely one that could see Sjax go off for a large number. And in the weeks that follow, who knows what could happen? ALso, after checking the game log for game 15 for GB last year - GB against a Lions team gave up over 70 yards on the ground; game log from game 16 last year, Pitt gave up 77 and 1 TD yards to Jamal Lewis, 98 in total - these are just for reference for late year games and rushing yards allowed.

 

My conclusion is that if he needs to average 95 yards per game to get to 1000 [(1000 yards - 233 yards already gained) / 8 games remaining = 95 ypg], this schedule provides the opportunity. And while 1000 yard rusher is not what Sjax owners bargained for, all hope is not lost.

 

EDIT: He has not been the uber stud, obviously. But he has performed well and seems to be consistent. Admittedly, he hurt me enough during his missed games that I will not make the playoffs. But I am thinking that for some of you, he will. Again, he has a very good matchup next week versus CINCY, but then draws GB and PITT (the case can be made either way: optimistic view - he is healthy, consistent - a TD 4 of the last 5 games played - and will be big again down the stretch; pessimistic view - he has only been good against bad defenses - only way he salvaged games were with two big runs - and will hurt you down the stretch with the tough schedule). Again, you expect him to do well enough next week and then hope he can grind it out or break some big ones the following two weeks. So for the SP -- will he make it to 1000 yards? Will a strong finish remove him from bust status, or is the damage already done? He looks like he could come close to the 1k, no? Obviously, he has an uphill battle, but when healthy, he has been better than some of the other first round RBs taken. Just thought I would revisit this given the last few weeks.

 

He currently has 862 yards with 2 weeks to play. He needs to average 69 yards per game to hit the 1k mark (1000 - 862 = 138 / 2 = 69 yd/game). He has a tough game next week in PITT (but we saw what that meant this week), which may hurt his chances. But I would say that he has a decent chance to get there.

[mec411 0]

looking good, hope you guys made it despite his absence for those weeks

[Celticspride 0]

I have an interesting dilemna re: Jackson this week. I made it to the Super Bowl in 2 of my leagues and in my big league I'm going against Jackson and in my other league I have Jackson...Also, in my big league I have Parker and in my 2nd league I'm facing Parker...and Pitt/StL face each other this week!...

 

[AnaheimRams 28]

I waited faithfully for Jackson to get back to form most of the season... and he help me win my way into the Finals (ripped off 8 games in a row to recover from a 2-6 start).

 

But... against Pitt... man... I'm wondering if that's a good idea.

 

Do I dance with who brung me? Or do I roll with Fred Taylor vs Oakland?

 

Tough decision...

[unckeyherb 2]

I waited faithfully for Jackson to get back to form most of the season... and he help me win my way into the Finals (ripped off 8 games in a row to recover from a 2-6 start).

 

But... against Pitt... man... I'm wondering if that's a good idea.

 

Do I dance with who brung me? Or do I roll with Fred Taylor vs Oakland?

 

Tough decision...

Fred Taylor against Oaklands horrible run def is pretty juicy.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

I traded FWP for SJAX back in week 10 and haven't looked back. I'm starting him in my Superbowl next week with no fear, alongside Freddy T and ADP.

[AnaheimRams 28]

Fred Taylor against Oaklands horrible run def is pretty juicy.

 

Agreed.

 

But... how many Addai owners got knocked out last week after thinking the same thing?

 

My opponent has stellar matchups at almost every position... so I need to go big. Figuring that Taylor's boom or bust potential vs Jackson's steady 80 yards and one TD might be the way to go.

 

But it's hard to leap off the guy I've been riding for so many weeks.

[duke5021 0]

Ride the horse that brought you. He torched the Packer D at home so I dont think Pitt is that much different after the Jags ran all over them.

[mec411 0]

I waited faithfully for Jackson to get back to form most of the season... and he help me win my way into the Finals (ripped off 8 games in a row to recover from a 2-6 start).

 

But... against Pitt... man... I'm wondering if that's a good idea.

 

Do I dance with who brung me? Or do I roll with Fred Taylor vs Oakland?

 

Tough decision...

 

 

I was reading and saying, how can he not go with Sjax..then I got to FT against OAK. And OAK is absolutely putrid against the run. Its a tough one but I might even go against stud Jacks, but dont be surprised if it comes back to haunt you.