Keeper RBs

[Lab 0]

My keeper league allows us to draft NCAA players and hold them as keepers, so I am looking for advice to weigh current NFL RBs against the value of NCAA players in the 2008 draft. (I know it's tough to make guesses until after the draft, but I am trying to get an early opinion; I'll check back after the draft.) Also, the league has a limit on the number of yours you can hold a player before they go into the main draft pool. Below is the list of RBs I potentially could keep, and the maximum number of years I'd be able to hold their contracts. They're listed in the order I'd probably rank them for keeper purposes. Any advice appreciated. I need to choose four. I think it starts to get tough at #3 or #4.

 

Marshawn Lynch (4 years) (a no brainer since he likely will start for several years)

Darren McFadden (3 years) (a high-risk/high-reward choice because I could only hold him a few years, but loads of upside and trade potential)

Jonathan Stewart (6 years) (likely #2 RB in draft & a sleeper favorite because of the long contract I'd have - lots of upside)

Ryan Grant (5 years) (will he produce in 2008 like he did in 2007? might be a fluke)

Brandon Jacobs (4 years) (faces competition, get injured a lot, can't catch - great yards-per-rush totals though, and big potential if healthy)

 

Scoring is complex, but it includes categories like total yds, rushing yds, receiving yds, TDs, yards-per-rush, and yards-per-reception.

 

What do you think? Am I putting too much faith in untested college players (McFadden & Stewart) over proven NFL players with some risks (Jacobs & Grant)? The fact that McFadden and Stewart are both likely going to be clear 1st-round picks in the draft is really tempting, especially given the success of other recent 1st-round picks:

 

2007 (Peterson, Lynch)

2006 (Bush, Maroney, D.Williams, Addai)

2005 (R.Brown, C.Benson, Cad.Williams)

2004 (S-Jax, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones)

2003 (McGahee, LJ)

[oban14 0]

My keeper league allows us to draft NCAA players and hold them as keepers, so I am looking for advice to weigh current NFL RBs against the value of NCAA players in the 2008 draft. (I know it's tough to make guesses until after the draft, but I am trying to get an early opinion; I'll check back after the draft.) Also, the league has a limit on the number of yours you can hold a player before they go into the main draft pool. Below is the list of RBs I potentially could keep, and the maximum number of years I'd be able to hold their contracts. They're listed in the order I'd probably rank them for keeper purposes. Any advice appreciated. I need to choose four. I think it starts to get tough at #3 or #4.

 

Marshawn Lynch (4 years) (a no brainer since he likely will start for several years)

Darren McFadden (3 years) (a high-risk/high-reward choice because I could only hold him a few years, but loads of upside and trade potential)

Jonathan Stewart (6 years) (likely #2 RB in draft & a sleeper favorite because of the long contract I'd have - lots of upside)

Ryan Grant (5 years) (will he produce in 2008 like he did in 2007? might be a fluke)

Brandon Jacobs (4 years) (faces competition, get injured a lot, can't catch - great yards-per-rush totals though, and big potential if healthy)

 

Scoring is complex, but it includes categories like total yds, rushing yds, receiving yds, TDs, yards-per-rush, and yards-per-reception.

 

What do you think? Am I putting too much faith in untested college players (McFadden & Stewart) over proven NFL players with some risks (Jacobs & Grant)? The fact that McFadden and Stewart are both likely going to be clear 1st-round picks in the draft is really tempting, especially given the success of other recent 1st-round picks:

 

2007 (Peterson, Lynch)

2006 (Bush, Maroney, D.Williams, Addai)

2005 (R.Brown, C.Benson, Cad.Williams)

2004 (S-Jax, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones)

2003 (McGahee, LJ)

 

Well, you're talking to someone who just traded McGahee and Turner for the first pick in our rookie draft this year, so take my opinion for what you will.

 

I would rank them like this:

 

Ryan Grant (5 years) (will he produce in 2008 like he did in 2007? might be a fluke)

Marshawn Lynch (4 years) (a no brainer since he likely will start for several years)

Jonathan Stewart (6 years) (likely #2 RB in draft & a sleeper favorite because of the long contract I'd have - lots of upside)

Darren McFadden (3 years) (a high-risk/high-reward choice because I could only hold him a few years, but loads of upside and trade potential)

Brandon Jacobs (4 years) (faces competition, get injured a lot, can't catch - great yards-per-rush totals though, and big potential if healthy)

 

Largely because of the contracts. I don't think Ryan Grant is a fluke, and I think he'll do well next year. I hope he sucks because I don't own him, but that's just hope. I liked what I saw out of him once he started playing. I think Lynch will give you very solid numbers for all four years. I'm torn on Stewart and McFadden, but will probably draft McFadden. We have no contract restrictions, and if the numbers were the same I'd probably lean towards McFadden for you. Obviously much of that will depend on where they go, so it'll be easier to weigh the decision post NFL draft.

 

The Giants seem to have a deep backfield so I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on Jacobs, particularly as much as he gets banged up.