Jump to content


Member Since 25 Aug 2015
Offline Last Active Jan 21 2019 02:19 PM

#6371733 Fantasy Football isn't all luck they say?

Posted by SpenceToons on 08 December 2018 - 05:35 PM



Also, if FF was all luck you wouldn't have the same teams making the playoffs in your long standing league.


And, really, you don't need much more evidence than this.

#6371732 Fantasy Football isn't all luck they say?

Posted by SpenceToons on 08 December 2018 - 05:35 PM

Seriously. This weepaws dude is the most advice offering person on this site, but keeps saying it's 100% luck.

I can only guess he thinks his god is feeding him the FF rankings. It's mind boggling.


I suspect that if weepaws sat down at the end of the year and rigorously tested the framework that he leans on to make his FF decisions that he would find that it provides him with a small edge vs just tossing a coin to make lineup decisions and sit-start calls. Perhaps a success rate along the lines of 10 steps forward for every 9 steps back. That might not sound like much but for every 100 tosses, he'd expect to be +5 ahead. 


Armed with such data, he could then say, "No, FF is not all luck. My experience has proven to me that if someone is diligent at it they can hammer out a small edge."


The reason why I lean this way is that if I spent as much time and trouble keeping the type of comprehensive and updated ranking system (even if this just means that he does a lot of it in his head) that weepaws seems to lean on to make his calls and it wasn't working for me, I would have abandoned it long ago.

#6363824 Titans @ Houston - In-Game Discussion

Posted by SpenceToons on 26 November 2018 - 01:03 PM

Without checking the numbers, my impression of the TEN DEF is that it's done a reasonably good job of hindering opponents' offenses. Couple that with TEN's sluggish offense and I agree with these expectations for a low scoring game.

#6352637 Kenny Golladay

Posted by SpenceToons on 07 November 2018 - 02:59 PM

I flipped him for Scantling. if that turns out to be a bad swap, so be it.


The reason Golladay made it on to my squad was those 12 targets he got in week 1. I was still content with the 9 and 7 targets he got in the next two weeks thereafter. But in the 3 games since the bye ? Paltry targets of 2-1-4 and that 4 was pretty lowly in my book, given that Tate had departed.


So the reason I got Golladay in the first place has evaporated. And with Kerryon coming on in the running game and Riddick getting some targets that used to be Tate's, i didn't have enough faith that the days of those heady targets he was seeing at the start of the year were going to return.

#6351722 Let's say Bell does show/sign: What Then?

Posted by SpenceToons on 06 November 2018 - 03:14 PM

If it should deteriorate into a timeshare, I may well start them both because....


(.50 x Conner) +  (.50 x Bell) >  (.50 x Conner) + (1.00 x YZ)



Where YZ = What my other scrub RBs have been delivering these days. 

#6351131 MNF: What do you need?

Posted by SpenceToons on 05 November 2018 - 06:59 PM

Zeke not to lose 47 fumbles.



These situations are even safer than they appear because you know at some point the coach is going to perform a mercy pulling.

#6348320 Fitzmagic-- who U starting him over?

Posted by SpenceToons on 01 November 2018 - 02:55 PM

Ben doesn't do so well in BAL and I'm up against Goff down at the Superdome....a situation that calls for someone who brings some ceiling.

#6345069 EFF you

Posted by SpenceToons on 28 October 2018 - 03:16 PM

Let's send one to the Rams' offense.


Even Greg the Leg can't kick 70 yard field goals.

#6334656 Week 6 FU Thread

Posted by SpenceToons on 14 October 2018 - 01:45 PM

Wrong thread...but I'm suddenly overcome with tears of joy.


First Touchdown for Njoku.!!!


If I had your mailing addresses, I'd send you all cigars.

#6330597 Weepaws, you there?

Posted by SpenceToons on 08 October 2018 - 09:34 PM

He's the Ray Charles of Fantasy.

#6298857 Royce Freeman

Posted by SpenceToons on 03 September 2018 - 01:03 PM

Since it says Standard scoring in your opener, you have to like the fact that Freeman has already been getting himself well-acquainted with the end zone....a TD in each of his preseason games. While CIN's usage of Mixon in the preseason hints at some pass catching upside, that's not going to carry over as well in Standard and I wouldn't characterize his YPC outlook as 'shining'.

#6298604 Michael Thomas - Couple talking points

Posted by SpenceToons on 03 September 2018 - 02:10 AM

Without looking at the numbers, my off the cuff impression is that Thomas stands out for his floor while Adams stands out for his ceiling. Adams could overtake Thomas but he'd need to dodge those wicked hits from the DBs and stay on the field for all 16 games.

#6291831 12th and 13th pick full ppr league what's the best choices?

Posted by SpenceToons on 24 August 2018 - 04:36 AM

If you look ahead to your next two chances to stock up beyond #12 & #13 and are happier with the WR choices that will be presented to you than the RBs, then stock up on RBs here...or vice versa.


One metric I'll throw out is PPR points-per-game from 2017. We have Allen 17.76 - Adams 15.89 - Jones 15.74 and Fournette 17.71 - McCaffrey 14.41. So some of that coach-speak about higher usage is going to have to come true just for McCaffrey to match your other candidates. As one looks at the rest of the field, there are more WRs down below who can give you 12 points and above than there are RBs. But a couple of mid round notables from both sides are Carlos Hyde at 14.75 and Robert Woods at 13.78 (for whatever this particular metric happens to be worth)


If you look at things from a share-of-the-pie perspective for the WRs, the light shines most favorably on Allen as neither Henry nor Gates will be there to soak up red zone targets. I think Calvin Ridley > Taylor Gabriel so that the ATL pie is diluted just a tidge. I'd say the arrival of Graham comes fairly close to making up for the departure of Nelson although this recent talk about Cobb being shopped might mean more pie for Adams.


I'd take Fournette and would have a devil of a time making a final selection from these WRs. They say that Allen had a lower TD rate last year than his average so there's room for improvement and he was first in the NFL in red zone targets with 24 and these targets might even go up this year. So that gives me additional "rationalization" to just lean on that 2017 points-per-game metric and make a call for Allen.

#6286231 My Targets - where do I have to draft them?

Posted by SpenceToons on 15 August 2018 - 01:07 PM

and it seems like Hogan was lighting up TDs when healthy last year. I probably should stop getting so attached to players.....


I think you have a pretty good sniffer. All of your names except for Goodwin are on my short list of candidates and I think I'm going to have to make a spot for him on my list as I keep reading the blurbs. The scuttlebutt is that Decker is struggling in camp so Hogan may carry some sweet upside in those first few weeks without Edelman.


I agree with the philosophy that Stonewall just put forth. I'm not shy about being a half-round to a round early on some guys so that I can come closer to mapping out ahead of time the roster that I'm going to wind up with (I can get bye week headaches and matchup plans figured out ahead of time, for instance).

#6246851 **Round Eleven-Sixteen Commentary**

Posted by SpenceToons on 18 June 2018 - 09:47 AM


......BUT in no way would I vote to not do a June Mock Draft. If this assists Mike/Doug in any way, we should keep doing it as they do so much for us and the hobby!




While there was good content around Draft-time, the flagship football forum here seems adrift to me this off-season. So it was a real shot-in-the-arm to follow this draft as a spectator. It was refreshing to see actual football become the main point of discussion again...and with some enthusiasm !