wizbang

The fallacy many fall for is rookies do worse than 2nd year back. That is entirely based on opportunity. Rookies often do not get opportunity. Those who do produce. Way more than older backs. Many people can’t process this information correctly.

The Rotoballer link has a larger sample size and shows rookies taken outside the first. The overwhelming take away is rookie RBs who earn a big role, almost regardless of where they are drafted, do very well. Early first rounders simply fall in this category of having big rookie roles more often due to draft capital / talent. That article has lots of evidence that’s difficult to ignore. The only wildcard seems to be injury, but that’s true for anyone.

Some wild takes here like avoiding rookie RBs. Rookie RBs taken in the first two rounds historically return excellent value. This article is a bit old and RBs aren’t drafted in the first round much anymore. It is clear though, the ones who earn a big role tend to do very well (Gibbs will have a huge role). Bijan’s best comp is Barkley based on draft capital and he was #1 overall as a rookie. Passing on rookie RBs who have earned a big role is for sure a losing strategy. Heck, Doug Martin was the #2 overall RB his rookie season and never whiffed that success again. Regarding Montgomery, he is absolutely just a guy. The Lions like him plenty and I think he will get around 200ish carries. That still leaves 250+ touches for Gibbs on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. The Lions ran 480 times last season. Atlanta ran a staggering 559 times! Allgeier can get 250 Carrie’s and Bijan can still push for 300 touches. These were two of the most running heavy teams and have the same coaches in place. They’re using the RBs. A LOT. Montgomery was severely outplayed by Herbert and has a pedestrian 3.9 YPC for his career. He isn’t going to plant Gibbs on the bench, he’s a compliment. The Lions will use Gibbs like a #12 overall selection barring injury. Camp reports have been glowing. You might not like his ADP, but passing on Gibbs because of Montgomery or being a rookie isn’t supported by evidence. https://www.rotoballer.com/are-rookie-running-backs-undervalued-in-fantasy/904045 here is the text from a tweet on the subject: RBs taken in the top 12 of the NFL Draft have been immediate fantasy studs. Rookie season points per game since 2012: Saquon Barkley: RB2 Leonard Fournette: RB8 Ezekiel Elliott: RB3 Todd Gurley: RB5 Trent Richardson: RB7 Christian McCaffrey: RB13