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2012 NFL Draft - Round 3


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#1 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 07:43 PM

IND - Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson
The Colts grab the draft's second-best TE one round after taking the top one and it is hard to fault them. Andrew Luck loved throwing to his TEs in college and I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Indianapolis and new HC Chuck Pagano have each seen the Patriots enough times over the last two years they may have just decided to copy the Gronkowski-Hernandez formula. Allen is the more likely of the two to be the "traditional" blocking TE, but it is safe to say with this pick that Indy is going to give Luck the tools to succeed right away. Allen belongs on redraft owners' watch lists since the Colts will use a lot of two TE sets. As a dynasty property, he falls behind Fleener simply because Fleener will be the "move" TE who may also work out of the slot on occasion.

#2 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 07:55 PM

DEN - Ronnie Hillman, RB San Diego St.
The Broncos were reportedly "hot" for Miami's Lamar Miller, but traded up for Hillman instead. Hillman's 190-pound frame makes it unlikely he will be much more than an explosive option in the screen game and likely gives Knowshon Moreno one more chance to push Willis McGahee. He seems like a long shot to ever have legit fantasy value on a consistent basis unless Denver decides to use him like the Saints use Darren Sproles.

#3 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:03 PM

HOU - Devier Posey, WR Ohio State
HC Gary Kubiak loves big receivers that can block and Posey can do that. Posey is a smooth route runner that lacks burst, but he can get behind coverage on occasion. Posey will eventually fill the role of Kevin Walter in all likelihood as the reliable and consistent receiver who will put up steady but unspectacular fantasy numbers.

#4 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:08 PM

BUF - TJ Graham, WR No. Carolina State
Graham can fly. Now, the bad news: he's a bit on the small side and would seem to be wasted in an offense that is more of a quick-hitting offense led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, who possesses less than ideal arm strength that really gets magnified in the cold and windy Buffalo winters. He can be ignored in redraft and dynasty leagues for now.

#5 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:19 PM

SEA - Russell Wilson, QB Wisconsin
It's hard to fault an early third-round selection on a player that possesses just one flaw no talent evaluator can overlook when it comes to quarterbacks - lack of height. Outside of that, he's likely a top 15-20 pick. If he is going to succeed at the NFL level, it will likely be in a system that features the running game and uses Wilson's athletic ability on bootlegs. He can go undrafted in redraft leagues as he will hold the clipboard this year as Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson fight for the starting job, but he has enough ability and is in a good enough offensive system that he should check in as the fourth-best rookie QB option in dynasty leagues.

#6 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:30 PM

MIA - Michael Egnew, TE Missouri
The recent history of Tiger TEs is not good simply because they are not asked to block inline. However, Egnew fills the description of the tight end that GM Jeff Ireland wanted from this draft: athletic and explosive. He could warrant a late-round pick in redraft leagues with an incredible training camp (since he was drafted to be a passing-game freak and not a three-down TE), but chances are he'll be a marginal contributor in 2012. He does have enough ability to be worth a late dynasty-league rookie draft pick, but there's an equal chance he simply never blocks well enough to see regular playing time.

#7 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:42 PM

CIN - Mohamed Sanu, WR Rutgers
The Bengals have to be pleased with seeing Sanu fall to them late in the third. In short, he is almost the perfect complement to A.J. Green. Whereas Green is a big-play receiver, Sanu is going to make his living in the short passing game and over the middle. Although he rarely creates separation, he will catch just about everything thrown his way and is a good fit in OC Jay Gruden's West Coast offense. Sanu has a great shot at being a starter Week 1, making him worth a late-round pick in redraft leagues. As for dynasty leaguers, Cincinnati represents one of his best possible landing spots.

#8 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:49 PM

BAL - Bernard Pierce, RB Temple
Out with Ricky Williams, in with another bigger back that will serve as Ray Rice insurance. He'll fight Anthony Allen for the right to be Rice's handcuff, but his workload figures to sproadic enough with a healthy Rice that he can go undrafted in all but the deepest redraft leagues. While he's a good fit for the system, Pierce's dynasty league value is also minimal for all non-Rice owners.

#9 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 09:02 PM

PHI - Nick Foles, QB Arizona
Foles elicits a wide-ranging debate as far as his skill set goes, but it's hard to argue that he didn't land in a good situation for his future as HC Andy Reid and OC Marty Mornhinweg have earned a reputation for developing QBs. Initially, Foles will likely be the third QB in Philly, but he has enough talent to push Mike Kafka for the backup job in short order behind injury-prone Michael Vick. He can go undrafted in redraft leagues, but Foles could easily be the starting QB in a year or two if the Eagles ultimately decide to move on from Vick, making him something of an intriguing rookie draft selection in a slightly better position than Russell Wilson as the fourth-best QB option from this draft.

#10 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 09:15 PM

IND - T.Y. Hilton, WR Florida International
With their third pick since selecting Andrew Luck, the Colts go offense (and special teams) with the explosive Hilton. Since Indy has made it clear it will go with a lot of two-TE sets, there doesn't figure to be a lot of opportunity to use Austin Collie or Hilton in the slot, where both players are best suited to play. Therefore, Hilton can be ignored in redraft formats, although he will have more value in return leagues. His dynasty league value is also quite low since he figures to languish as a returner barring a rash of injuries to players like Collie and Donnie Avery.

#11 madd futher mucker

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 10:38 PM

The two guys who stood out for me from round 3 for dynasty purposes were Ronnine Hillman to Denver and Mohamed Sanu to Cincy.

Hillman is about the same size but not the blocker that Pead is. On the other hand, he's a more natural runner who despite his size will take it up between the tackles. I see him as more of a raw talent that needs to add a bit more bulk and get more experience. This year, the Bronco RB situation could possibly be a mess and Hillman is too raw to take over right away at any rate, but I believe he could be the franchise RB of the future for the Broncos. So I think that Doug under-rates Hillman's dynasty potential.

On the other hand, I agree with every word of Doug's write-up regarding Sanu. I see him as the perfect complement to A J Green, and he's a guy who could have immediate fantasy value.
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#12 The Football Guru

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 01:48 AM

The two guys who stood out for me from round 3 for dynasty purposes were Ronnine Hillman to Denver and Mohamed Sanu to Cincy.

Hillman is about the same size but not the blocker that Pead is. On the other hand, he's a more natural runner who despite his size will take it up between the tackles. I see him as more of a raw talent that needs to add a bit more bulk and get more experience. This year, the Bronco RB situation could possibly be a mess and Hillman is too raw to take over right away at any rate, but I believe he could be the franchise RB of the future for the Broncos. So I think that Doug under-rates Hillman's dynasty potential.

On the other hand, I agree with every word of Doug's write-up regarding Sanu. I see him as the perfect complement to A J Green, and he's a guy who could have immediate fantasy value.

I have a confession to make...I realized today that I thought Hillman was Fresno's Robbie Rouse and I'm not sure why. (Funny story: I realized it when I went to see how Hillman played against Nebraska and "discovered" he never played against the Huskers.) Either way, I obviously had to go back and watch more Hillman - he does need to add more bulk, but he's got a chance to meet MFM's high expectations. I think he is primarily a passing-down back with 40+ catch upside this season (assuming Moreno is gone or not playing). I don't know that if he has the build to carry much more weight, but I certainly like his vision, speed and elusiveness. I won't go future "franchise back" with him, but I can see him leading a 60:40 backfield split with a bigger back. I'm going to do my usual "Rookie Impact" top 20 article in the next week and I suspect he'll be somewhere on that list, for this year as well as the dynasty ranking list.