The Football Guru

I'm not sure what you're talking about ... jump from what to what?

Very difficult to break this one down at the moment, especially if we throw Gibson (and McKissic?) into the bunch. First off, I don't see how Barber and McKissic make it. Teams don't carry more than four RBs (most only roster three). Drafting someone like Gibson is done in part to save a roster spot, so there's a case to be made that Love either doesn't make it or is a regular on the inactive list. Anyway ... The best recent comparison I can think of this year is probably a very poor man's version of the Patriots. In that backfield, Sony Michel is the pounder, Rex Burkhead is the injury-prone dual-purpose back and James White is the satelite back. I would expect AD to play the Michel role and assume around 150 carries if Guice manages to stay healthy. If he doesn't, maybe he pushes 200 again. Guice should be considered the favorite for 160-175 carries and maybe 20-ish catches if he can avoid injury. If he can't, that's where I think Gibson can become an interesting option in redraft leagues, perhaps with a workload similar to Duke Johnson. (Admittedly a stretch.) If both AD and Guice stay healthy, I don't see how Gibson finds a way into more than five catches and five targets per game (and that assumes Love is a non-factor). If Love proves to be a decent replacement for Chris Thompson (which the previous regime was hoping), then Gibson can't be much more than a gadget player as a rookie.

The last time we saw David, he looked like he was carrying a piano on his back. I'm sure he's better (healthier?) now, but he hasn't been a particularly efficient player since 2016 and been hurt in two of those years. Some of that was Arizona's line, but why wasn't that more of an issue for Drake and Edmonds? I've never understood why Duke hasn't been used more in his career, but I digress. Given David's "issues," I think Duke sees more than last year's 127 touches. (I was shocked to see he got that many.) RB4 sounds about right in non-PPR, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he is a solid fantasy start 4-5 times (in the likely event David gets hurt). At the very least, the Texans have talked about getting their RBs more involved in the passing game this year, so maybe he pushes for 500 receiving yards.

I'm aware of that, but I want to play now, dad!

This is about as upsetting as the mail losing a check for about $6000 after I won a fantasy league about 10 years ago. I eventually got it, but still.

I haven't received an invite, in case someone thought I did or anyone was wondering.

I'd say it's possible, albeit unlikely. Mixon is usually going a bit before the turn. But yeah, I'd also be happy to start out with a Mixon-Chubb backfield.

No worries. At the moment, I find myself very conflicted with him. He has the ability to be a feature back. And if Philly allows him to serve as one, then he's going to pay off in a big way. Adam Caplan seems to believe it's fait accompli that will be the case based on what he's hearing from his sources, but that's not been what Doug Pederson has ever been about, nor was that what happened at the end of last year. Yes, Sanders is the most talented back they've had since he's been there, but can the Eagles really just limit Boston Scott to 5-6 touches per game? All I'm saying is that the pro-Sanders crowd only wants to see what he did statistically once he got to start last season. Philly had no WRs of any consequence by the time December rolled around, so it's only natural a talented guy with a heavy workload and behind a good line lit it up. As I look at it from a non-PPR point of view though, I think he has to be a top 12 back. I'd rather have CMC, Barkley, Kamara, Dalvin, Zeke, Mixon, Jacobs and Henry. I think Sanders fits in somewhere after that crowd.

You question my opinion? Have you not seen my profile pic? I'm well aware of Anderson's injury history. It is the only reason (at least the only one I'm aware of) that he fell to the sixth round. (He was probably a second-round talent at worst.) I'm sure the Bengals won't having any problem moving on after this year if he can't stay healthy yet again at that price. As much as I liked Williams coming out, I'm leery about his long-term future in Cincy after he saw only seven offensive snaps (and no touches) last season.

No need for you to go away. As long as everyone understands I won't have my first Big Board done for a while, I'm always happy to share my opinions. As for your question, I think it's Rodney Anderson. I believe Trayveon Williams was drafted to be a younger version of Gio Bernard.

The new coaching staff in Carolina throws a bit of uncertainty into the situation, but Bonnafon seemed to be the clear leader in the clubhouse at the end of last season. I imagine training camp will decide which one wins the backup job, but I'd lean a bit toward Bonnafon at the moment. I also tend to think the Panthers would go RBBC if CMC went down. One of the reasons for my lack of conviction on that last one is Joe Brady has only kind of run an offense for one year (and that was as the passing game coordinator at LSU last season).

That's the plan!

Among NFL GMs, next year's first-round pick is typically considered to be worth a second-round pick in the upcoming draft.

You're going to get me to commit to a quarter of the league before I start actually doing the projections Just kidding, I know you're not going to hold me to things I say in May when September rolls around. It's a tough question, but I can get behind Robinson as a low-end WR1 in a 14-teamer since I'd be comfortable with him as a high-end WR2 in 12-teamers. (Obviously prefer him as a WR2 though.) Right about the same time Nagy started using Mitch more in the running game was about the same time Robinson started rolling. Getting Taylor Gabriel out of the picture helped too. I think if I knew in advance Mitch was going to be the starter all year long in 2020, I'd probably go with mid-to-low WR2 for Robinson in non-PPR. However, I do think Foles can be a slight upgrade for everyone in this offense if Nagy doesn't use (or want to use) Mitch as he did late in the season. I don't think we saw anything close to the best Foles can offer in 2019, but I also don't think he's the answer. I don't see Graham being much of a drain for obvious reasons and I don't think Kmet is going to go crazy as a rookie either. Ultimately, I think Robinson comes back down to earth in the 80-catch range as Miller takes another step forward, but another 1,000 yards and 6-7 scores is still very much doable.

I think there is a double plus in that Rivers has a history of targeting TEs and Frank Reich seems to love the position too. However, I don't think it's as simple as Rivers loves TEs, so the starter is guaranteed 60 catches. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are significantly more talented than Doyle, and it could be argued Doyle is breaking down. The team also likes Mo Alie-Cox. Looking past all of that, I think Hilton-Pittman-Campbell will make for a pretty nice trio, plus Hines could push for 50 or so catches. I guess I'm saying is that while it wouldn't surprise me if Doyle was a top 10 TE this year, I'd bet against it. Without having started my usual process that leads to my projections (so off the top of my head basically), I'd set his ceiling as something like 52 catches, 550 yards and six TDs. That would have made him TE10 last year.