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The Football Guru

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About The Football Guru

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  1. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    I think Nix has a decent chance. I am more hesitant to project certain things I did not see as often from quarterbacks than, say, running backs. Sometimes at running back, you are only going to get to see him attempt to pick up a blitz five times in eight games you watch. For quarterbacks, I hate projecting a certain trait because he should have ample opportunity to show it if he is dropping back 400+ times. For example, I struggle to believe Nix is a great - or even good - deep thrower because he attempted less than 100 deep (20+ yard throws) in his two years at Oregon. One thing that really stood about him was how fidgety he got when his first read wasn't available. I guess similar things could have been said about Drew Brees at Purdue, which was one of the first schools to embrace the spread more than 20 years ago. He had his share of layup throws too, although I don't recall Brees throwing behind the line of scrimmage nearly as often as Nix did. I think enough of Payton to believe he will make this work with Nix, but I think his floor is also the lowest of the top six quarterbacks as well.
  2. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    All true. I believe 2025 is going to be a good RB class, however. I know not everyone who we think should come out will declare, but some of my early research suggests we could see at least five very good options at the position.
  3. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    Fair point, but he did miss five of 14 games with back and ankle injuries. And as is usually the case with back and ankle injuries (missed the first four games of the season b/c of the back), it is difficult to know how much he was affected by either one in the games immediately after he returned. With that said, you have reason to be concerned. He dealt with four different injuries over his final two seasons. He is a little guy that tries to play like a big guy sometimes.
  4. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    This was not a great draft for RBs. Jonathon Brooks would have probably be the 1.04 or 1.05 in my rankings if I wasn't basically expecting him to be about 75% of what I saw of him with Texas before the injury last year.
  5. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    Sorry. I root for Nebraska. I don't watch Georgia until the FBS playoffs start (or when I start doing the rookie profiles).
  6. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    I believe more in Penix than I do Nix. In the interest of full disclosure, I began with Nix over Penix when I started the rankings. And Cousins' recovery from an Achilles (and ability to remain healthy) is no sure thing.
  7. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

    Bingo. This has less to do with Benson's talent (second-best RB in the draft IMO) and more to do with the Cards' belief in Conner. Arizona (i.e. Gannon) loves himself some Conner. Maybe Conner does not get an extension and becomes a year-to-year guy the rest of the way. I do not claim to have a crystal ball, but I would not bet against Arizona extending Conner one more year.
  8. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - TE Brock Bowers

    Pitts will be fine. The last time he had a decent QB and was healthy, he was a 1,000-yard producer as a 20-year-old. Bowers may not smash Week 1, but he's a stud.
  9. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Ladd McConkey

    It was a back issue (reportedly a lower back sprain) mostly this year, which is not a red flag by itself. But still, I think it would be an outlier if he ends up being a Wes Welker type - as I have heard some suggest.
  10. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Ladd McConkey

    Injuries played a major role in his down year in 2023. But yeah, you'd still like to see more production.
  11. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Rome Odunze

    Definitely. I believe I watched every one of his targets from this past season. It's been a bit since I did his write-up, but I don't recall him running by too many folks. In short, it would be silly for me to assume he can separate consistently when I haven't seen it, so it surprises me some believe he was tempo-ing his routes and purposely not trying to separate very often. I'm of the mind if you can blow by your defender, you do it whenever possible.
  12. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Rome Odunze

    The guy is an absolute grinder, so I see how teams are falling in love with him. I also have heard comments about how he heard criticism about his contested-catch ability last year, so he went out of his way this year to prove it wasn't an issue. I am not sure I am buying that. But I do see where people are making comps to Davante Adams and Keenan Allen. He says he studies them as much as any receiver, and you can see it with some of the things he does with his footwork. I think Odunze will be a very good NFL receiver, but I am not on board with the people who say it is difficult to find a hole in his game. We are not talking about Calvin Johnson here.
  13. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Rome Odunze

    Correct. Penix trusted him (and all of his WRs, for that matter) and Odunze made contested catch after contested catch. Odunze caught a FBS-best 21 of his 28 contested catch targets. I don't have a yardage total to give you, but a lot of his deep catches were contested catches. Nine of his 23 deep catches were contested, per PFF. It sure seemed like it was more watching every one of his targets, so I wonder how PFF determines what makes for a contested catch.
  14. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - RB Braelon Allen

    I thought for sure he was going to be my RB1 when I started these profiles, but the bulk of what I had seen of him before this month was from 2021. Needless to say, he doesn't look the same player.
  15. The Football Guru

    2024 NFL Draft Profile - RB Trey Benson

    I won't get around to Wright for another week or so, but Brooks and Benson are my top two backs so far.