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The Football Guru

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  1. Dwayne Haskins Write-Up Oh, the irony. The kid who grew up a Giants' fan will get multiple shots at proving why he should have been the choice over Daniel Jones. Haskins was a one-year starter at Ohio State, but what a year it was (4,831 yards and 50 touchdowns). The Maryland native born in New Jersey may be the draft's top pocket passer, and he addresses what has quickly become a problem area for the Redskins following the potential career-ending knee injury to Alex Smith. Haskins' accuracy in the short and intermediate areas is what made him so successful with the Buckeyes in 2018. He doesn't put near enough air under his deep ball, but that flaw should be minimized playing in HC Jay Gruden's offense. My comparisons for him were Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater, and he was my second-ranked quarterback despite having only one year of experience. Given the current depth chart in Washington (Smith, Case Keenum and an injured Colt McCoy), Haskins has a realistic shot of starting the season opener. The problem is his supporting cast: Jordan Reed, Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson are unlikely to keep defensive coordinators awake at night. As such, he will most likely be a low-end QB2/bye-week filler option at best in 2019.
  2. T.J. Hockenson Profile Hockenson is arguably the most complete tight end to enter the league since O.J. Howard. Detroit fans may be afraid of another tight end after Eric Ebron didn't work out there, but the Iowa product is a different kind of cat. HC Matt Patricia would like nothing more than to end the Lions' many years of misery when it comes to establishing a solid running game and Hockenson will be of great help there. Obviously, Detroit did not draft him just for his run-blocking prowess. Hockenson reminds me of Travis Kelce, and he could easily rise to that level. He is a very good route-runner and dropped only one of 51 catchable targets last season per Pro Football Focus, and he creates separation as well as any tight end since Howard. His presence should also only improve make life easier for Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Rookie tight ends are historically poor bets for fantasy purposes, but Hockenson has a chance to contribute right away. More than likely, however, he will be a low-end TE2 in 2019 as he shares snaps with Jesse James, but he should be a great option at the end of the first round for dynasty leaguers.
  3. Daniel Jones Write-Up Teams often try to hit doubles instead of homers at the top of the draft, and this pick has that kind of feel. I mentioned in my draft write-ups of Jones that he might be the most "safe" pick at his position, but it's hard to defend that kind of selection when many of his weaknesses - such as questionable arm strength - don't figure to play well late in the season, although it may not matter if the Giants keep loading up on slot options such as Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. GM Dave Gettleman is big on drafting players with college track records and stated earlier recently that it takes a different type of quarterback to play in New York due to the adversity that comes with playing in the city. The Duke standout dealt with his fair share of adversity on the field in college playing a poor offensive line and watching his pass-catchers drop 9.2 percent of his throws last season. Legendary personnel evaluator and SiriusXM NFL Radio analyst Gil Brandt recently made some waves when he not only stated how much he loved Jones as a prospect, although he is more Eli than Peyton. Jones will sit for the majority of 2019 as Eli plays out the final year of his contract, but it's hard to like him even as a dynasty option in what figures to be a run-based offense minus Odell Beckham Jr.
  4. Kyler Murray Profile Considered by some the most complete dual-threat quarterback in draft history, Murray is the Cardinals' second attempt at the position in the first round in as many years. Most people already know the story with new HC Kliff Kingsbury and Murray, and it goes without saying the reigning Heisman Trophy winner should be a quick study after setting the college world on fire in his only full season as a starter at Oklahoma. At 5-10 and 207 pounds, Murray is going to test the ongoing debate of how big an NFL quarterback has to be. With that said, Murray is on the level of Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick in terms of athleticism, and he is a more refined passer than either one of them. And that's where his fantasy value is going to come from initially, although Arizona has some targets to ease him into the NFL in Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Murray will be a Day 1 starter - probably regardless of whether or not Josh Rosen remains on the roster. For fantasy purposes, it's not unthinkable he emerges as a low-end QB1, although owners should try to snag him as a high-upside QB2 due to the injury risk that comes along with a quarterback that runs so much and operates behind a poor offensive line.
  5. The Football Guru

    * UPDATED: NFL Draft Profiles - TE Noah Fant

    I want to like Brown more than I do, but I really don't know how that guy is going to stay healthy for a full season. If he lands on GB, however, I'm sure he will be no lower than 1.03 on my rookie draft board.
  6. The Football Guru

    * UPDATED: NFL Draft Profiles - TE Noah Fant

    I'll be doing a write-up on him (not a profile) before the draft. I know I like what I have seen from him.
  7. The Football Guru

    * UPDATED: NFL Draft Profiles - TE Noah Fant

    Would not surprise me if the Pack passes at the position, although I do agree with you. Word has it that GB likes what it has in Robert Tonyan. With that said, I don't know how the Pack could pass on Hock if he's there at 12.
  8. The Football Guru

    * UPDATED: NFL Draft Profiles - TE Noah Fant

    You guys nailed it on the head, IMO. Just got done evaluating Brown, I strongly considered Jarvis Landry as a comp before settling on Boldin. And most definitely, I see a lot of WR2 and WR3 types so far in this class and none of the "alpha" WR1s.
  9. The Football Guru

    * UPDATED: NFL Draft Profiles - TE Noah Fant

    Funny you mentioned DGB. I did have him listed as a low-end comp at one time, but I ultimately decided against him in part b/c he's nowhere as strong (27 bench reps to 13 for DGB) or explosive (11+ feet broad vs. sub-10 for DGB). Either way, one of the reasons I like doing these profiles is b/c they force me to challenge the rankings of all the draft analysts. It appears most of them believe Harry or Metcalf are No. 1, but I sure don't see it that way.
  10. The Football Guru

    Why is Carlos Hyde bouncing around so much?

    Shanahan wanted "his guy" in San Fran and Hyde was at the end of his rookie deal. In CLE, we should have seen been able to predict Chubb was going to be a factor when he went early in the second and again when Hyde wasn't showing much efficiency. The Jags were a bad situation, as has been noted above. I like Hyde in KC. We'll have to wait and see if the Chiefs targets an RB on the first day or two of the draft. If they do, I'm probably betting on that rookie. If not, I'll probably acquire a ton of shares in Hyde in the middle to late rounds as opposed to buying Williams in the second.
  11. The Football Guru

    Forums Software Upgrade - 2/5/19

    Wooo-wey ... snazzy
  12. The Football Guru

    Bill O'Brien

    We knew his line sucked going into the season. The media loves to play up how much he is responsible for his own sacks, but PFF doesn't seem to agree. However, since either PFF doesn't offer this info to premium subscribers or I can't find it on the site, I'll use this link instead. As of the end of November, PFF assigned responsibility to Watson on only seven of the 37 sacks he had taken (18.9%). Using that same rate over the course of the season, he would have been responsible for 11.5 of his 61 sacks (PFF's number), https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/28/pro-football-focus-sacks-texans-qb-deshaun-watson/ Even if we bump the final number up to 15, it's ridiculous. LT Julie'n Davenport was raw coming out of Bucknell and should just now be working as a starter, but he's their LT and started a bunch last year. LG Senio Kelemete should be a rotational guy, not a guy starting next to Davenport. RT Kendall Lamm was waived by the Texans last season when their line was even worse after being a college free agent two years before. He's the starting RT. Houston's other huge problem is it got old in the secondary in a hurry. I would have no problem if the Texans do nothing but draft o-linemen and corners this spring, Lamar Miller is replaceable but also good enough to use in tandem with a healthy D'Onta Foreman if the line gets a serious upgrade. Short of this draft offering up a Quenton Nelson at Houston's pick in the first round (highly unlikely, obviously), the Texans need to find Aaron Colvin's long-term sidekick and then throw most of their picks at athletic o-linemen.
  13. The Football Guru

    Monday night what do you need?

    Let's make it 19 and everyone can be happy. Against Denver's lackluster TE defense, 5-80-1 is doable.
  14. The Football Guru

    Hello Caller, I'm Listening ...

    If you're asking me if I trust Michel to get 15 carries, sure. Do I think he'll give you October numbers? No. Too many horses in the stable now and the Pats don't care about getting one back his numbers. I feel Coleman is probably the ceiling play and Anderson is the safer play with a decent amount of upside. I had to make this decision earlier in the week on the waiver wire and I went with Cleveland. No Green, Boyd, Eifert or Dalton. I would hope the Browns could keep a second-string offense in check. I would play Miami if I had to, but I don't trust that defense.
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