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The Football Guru

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  1. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Khalil Shakir, Bills

    I have him 26th on my non-SF rankings, so I'm on board. You're right about him getting open so often.
  2. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Jameson Williams, Lions

    Folks, let's remember Goff is not exactly a great deep-ball thrower. We've got a team in Detroit here that wants to bite off kneecaps too. Maybe ARSB falls behind Williams before the end of the year, but I wouldn't bet on it happening quickly. Then there is Hockenson and Swift, who will soak up plenty of targets as well. In short, I don't see Williams becoming Jaylen Waddle 2.0 as a rookie (from a fantasy perspective).
  3. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - TE Trey McBride, Cardinals

    In a rookie draft, I would think mid-second. A lot of managers want some kind of immediate payoff from their first two rookie picks, and it is reasonable to assume he won't provide that being stuck behind Ertz for now.
  4. Team Fit: While Badie might only check in at 197 pounds, he runs tough and doesn't fumble (none since his sophomore season). Perhaps most importantly, he is a very capable receiver out of the backfield on a team that needed to turn to Devonta Freeman after J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards went down with ACL tears last summer. Working against him is the fact Baltimore is neither a heavy passing team nor a team that looks to throw to its running backs very often. If Badie learns to play with better vision, his 4.45 speed (and receiving ability) gives him a chance for some change-of-pace work with the Ravens. If Dobbins and Edwards can return from their injuries without incident, Badie won't be a noteworthy name for redraft purposes as more of a receiving back on a heavy run team. If not, he could easily find his way into early playing time as a complementary back.
  5. Draft Profile Team Fit: A bit of a James Conner clone, the 224-pound Allgeier possesses above-average (if not very good) power and runs through most contact (70.9 percent of his yardage in 2021 came after initial contact). He complements his power well by running with patience, vision and discipline. Allgeier has good enough hands and showed enough attention to detail in the passing game at BYU that he has the upside to be a three-down back in the NFL someday. Ball security was a bit of a problem in 2021 (four fumbles) though and he doesn't always run through defenders when he should, making him sound a bit like the guy he will try to beat out this summer (Mike Davis). Allgeier may have the best shot at rookie-year fantasy relevance of any Day 3 running back. Cordarrelle Patterson's role is unlikely to change, but he could easily emerge as a major Week 1 contributor if he beats Davis in camp.
  6. Draft Profile Team Fit: Shakir has a rare motor and can do a bit of everything on offense. (He logged snaps out of Wildcat, at running back, on jet sweeps and as a returner for the Broncos.) His concentration is particularly impressive in contested-catch situations. His 38 1/2-inch vertical jump shows up on film, but he rarely looks like he is moving like a receiver capable of running 4.43. As such, he may be limited to a possession receiver role in Buffalo. Shakir will not threaten Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis or Jamison Crowder this year, but he could surprise a bit if one of those three gets hurt.
  7. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys

    I don't know if he beats out James Washington this year, but I see him taking over the same kind of field-stretching role Gallup had with Lamb and Cooper around.
  8. Draft Profile Team Fit: Thought to be a high first-round pick entering the season, Howell lasts until the 144th pick in 2022 because his production fell off the table as a passer after Michael Carter, Javonte Williams, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome moved onto the NFL last spring. Howell transformed his game and became more of a rushing threat. The pick could end up being a steal for Washington, especially given Howell's ability to throw the deep ball. Howell could use some time to develop, however, as he could afford to clean up the overall operation of his drop-back and work on moving past his first read as a passer. Carson Wentz enters this season as the clear starter, but his recent struggles have been well-documented. With only Taylor Heinicke and the enigmatic Wentz in front of him, Howell has a chance to start as a rookie - especially given his ability to throw the deep ball. It seems unlikely, however. If he does start at some point, he is enough of a threat as a runner that he could fall into low-end QB2 value at some point.
  9. Draft Profile Team Fit: Fellow fourth-rounder Charlie Kolar is the more prototypical tight end, but Likely offers mismatch potential that should lead to a more fantasy-friendly role at some point since Kolar would likely need an injury to Mark Andrews to be relevant. Likely is surprisingly quick and loose-hipped for a 245-pound man, and he possesses much more experience in running a full route tree than one might expect from a Sun Belt player. At 245 pounds, he is stuck in a bit of a no man's land because he is too light to be a traditional tight end and doesn't block well enough to be a fullback. Likely profiles as a mismatch weapon who could fill in for Andrews if the Pro Bowler goes down, although he would likely share snaps with Kolar in that scenario. He could play an H-back role for one of the league's more unique offenses, however, which could help him push for 20-30 catches as a rookie.
  10. Team Fit: A departure from what Pittsburgh usually does at WR in terms of size (5-7), Austin was likely attractive to the Steelers as a Ray-Ray McCloud upgrade. Austin may be small, but his 4.32 speed, suddenness and route-running feel should make him a quality fourth receiver on this roster. Despite his small stature, he worked almost exclusively on the perimeter for Memphis in 2021. That seems unlikely to happen in the NFL with Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens occupying most of those reps. As such, he will likely be limited to a part-time role as a field-stretcher and jet-sweep option. As the fourth receiver (at best) in a Mitchell Trubisky-led (or Kenny Pickett) offense, Austin is a longshot to be a redraft option at any point in 2022.
  11. Team Fit: Green Bay addresses receiver for the second time this weekend, this time with another player who should stretch the field, although it is more likely he will push for return duties right away with the Packers. Doubs has dependable hands, is quick off the line of scrimmage and displays very good body control to adjust to off-target throws. He's not a great route-runner and lacks the kind of functional strength he needs to hold up in the NFL on a full-time basis, however. Although Green Bay does not have a great receiver room at the moment with Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers and Sammy Watkins projected to be the top five options, the remainder to be seen whether or not Doubs can make one of them expendable.
  12. Team Fit: At 228 pounds, few backs in this draft class made more sense for Tennessee than Haskins. Michigan product consistently falls forward upon contact and did not fumble in 476 career touches, making him a great backup to Derrick Henry. On the downside, he doesn't possess breakaway speed (only three of his 270 carries in 2021 resulted in runs of 25 yards or more) and likely won't do much as a receiver out of the backfield. Haskins is the rare fourth-round runner who only has one obstacle in his way before he could be fantasy-relevant. He should emerge as Henry's handcuff immediately after D'Onta Foreman bolted for Carolina in free agency.
  13. Draft Profile Team Fit: Few (if any) running backs in this draft class offer the kind of explosiveness Strong does. His career 7.2 yards per carry mark on 631 attempts is good even after the fact he played most of his games against FCS competition is factored into the equation.) Strong's 4.37 speed gives him a chance, as does his vision and instincts. Ironically, Strong does not run with much power and is more of a one-cut runner than make-you-miss back. Ball security was also an issue in 2021 (five fumbles). Strong is likely being viewed as back-of-the-roster competition for J.J. Taylor as a rookie, meaning he can be mostly ignored in 2022 as long as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson stay healthy.
  14. Draft Profile Team Fit: The Chargers' long search for Austin Ekeler's complement is likely over. What Spiller lacks in jaw-dropping ability, he makes up for in being very balanced in many important areas for a running back. He boasts near-ideal size for the position (6-0, 217). He also has very good hands (zero drops in 2021) and was trusted to pick up rushers/blitzers on a much more regular basis than many of today's college backs. Spiller's biggest shortcoming might be his average athleticism for his position (as his Combine numbers would indicate) and ball security (eight fumbles on 615 career touches). Spiller should be an instant upgrade over Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree. Given the team's stance on keeping Ekeler's touches in check, Spiller is well worth a bench stash in redraft leagues. Consider him a strong handcuff in redraft.
  15. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Matt Corral, Panthers

    More what I expect from Trubisky in a "good" offensive scheme more suited for his talents, and not Matt Nagy's.