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The Football Guru

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About The Football Guru

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  1. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    I acknowledge I'm taking some longshots near the end of the 50, but I don't see a clear role for Snell over the next two years. Conner should get his 20 touches and Samuels should get most of the rest. I suppose Snell would have more value if you don't believe Conner can hold up for a full season.
  2. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    I think once Sanders knows his assignments in pass pro and earns the trust of Pederson/Wentz as a receiver out of the backfield, he will do no worse than matching the number of touches Howard gets. I am willing to be proven wrong, but I don't think Pederson wants to feature a running back for a significant length of time. If the Eagles keep four backs, it wouldn't surprise me if goes something like this: Sanders (40%), Howard (30), Smallwood (20) and Clement (10). FYI: Howard's contract is up at the end of the year. Thus, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Howard gets phased out late in the season if he hasn't established himself as the clear early-down back by then.
  3. The Football Guru

    Dynasty league value question

    I would treat it like GMs are supposed to treat contract negotiations. Pay for future performances, not past results. The Patriots are trending more and more into a power running team and he may/may not be able to take advantage of most of his top remaining weapons, since Gordon's return is up in the air and Harry may not emerge until Brady turns 44. Of course, Gronk is gone. If I'm playing for a title this year, the most I'd give is a late second-round rookie pick.
  4. The Football Guru

    Dynasty Rankings Updated

    I don't disagree. I realize Jones did most of his damage in the slot and the Bills have Beasley now. I like Foster more too, as evidenced by ranking him and not ranking Jones. But Buffalo has to agree. Do the Bills care they spent a second-rounder on Jones and want to justify that pick, will they play the better player or will they have them split time? I'm not going to pretend to know what they are thinking. Jones sucked his way to 56 catches and seven scores last year, so it's not going to an open-and-shut case IMO.
  5. The Football Guru

    Dynasty Rankings Updated

    Jordan Thomas is an interesting case. Darren Fells was added for his ability to block. He's making the team. Warring was drafted in the third round, so he's making the team. Jordan Akins was a third-rounder last year drafted to be the new C.J. Fiedorowicz. Thomas was picked in the sixth because he was just too good of an athlete and fit the prototype. The reason I am answering the question this way is Akins and Thomas are probably battling it out for one spot. Few, if any, teams keep four TEs. I don't think there is any way Griffin is sticking around, even if he hadn't screwed up. With that said, the only year Houston has really leaned on the TE recently was when Brock Osweiler was afraid to go more than 10 yards down the field - about three years ago if memory serves. If Thomas improves his blocking from last year, I could see him having some relevancy this year in fantasy, especially as a TE2 in 14-teamers. With that said, I'm not sure there will be more than 40 catches or 5-6 TDs for him if Hopkins, Fuller and Coutee can stay relatively healthy. And it really wouldn't surprise me if Warring starts seeing significant playing time late in the season if he shows well over the first half of the season.
  6. The Football Guru

    Dynasty Rankings Updated

    Right now, I'm not even sure he's going to start over Zay Jones. If I knew that for sure, I'd probably bump him up to the bottom part of Tier 5.
  7. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    I accounted for the likely retirement of Baldwin when I did my rankings. I'd be stunned if Metcalf lasted until #14 in any rookie draft though. I just think owners will give up on him by the time he becomes more than a splash player. He's such a tough cat to rank.
  8. The Football Guru

    Dynasty Rankings Updated

    We have two QBs playing at a high level going into or already in their 40s. I would argue Rodgers is playing better at 35 than either of them were at the same age. I could argue the subtraction of McCarthy is another reason to like him for the next five-plus years. Trubisky has a lot of work to do to enjoy sustained success. He was very average after Week 10 last season. Did defenses figure him out and put more emphasis on keeping him in the pocket? Right now, I see him as a Matt Nagy creation more than an up-and-coming talent.
  9. The Football Guru

    Dynasty Rankings Updated

    I debated squeezing him in, and he was just on the outside looking in. Ultimately, I don't want to count on a potential injury and use it as justification for ranking a player. Barring something unforeseen, Callaway isn't going to start for the remainder of his rookie contract in Cleveland. And in the case he sees an extended run as a starter due to an OBJ/Landry injury, he'll be third in line at best for targets.
  10. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    Good chance I'll just be falling asleep when you post them, so the is appropriate.
  11. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    Thanks. I think my for Hockenson probably came through in the draft profiles, but I'm just not crazy about Darrell Bevell calling the shots for the foreseeable future in Detroit. Boykin is a stud athletically, but I wonder if he can overcome lack of volume and the fact BAL spent a first-rounder on Hollywood. I can't imagine that offense will be able to keep more than two pass-catchers viable in fantasy, and I think one of those guys will consistently be either Mark Andrews or Hayden Hurst.
  12. The Football Guru

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    PPR. Certainly not top-heavy, but I like the depth of the class. I would love to land the likes of Darwin Thompson or Devine Ozigbo or even Bryce Love early in the third round.
  13. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Parris Campbell, Colts

    His contract maxes out at $13 M. The actual terms were one year and $10 M.
  14. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Daniel Jones, Giants

    Never thought I would say this, but he's from my alma mater. Yes, it sounds like he's going to be fine.
  15. The Football Guru

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Devin Singletary, Bills

    He's a bit like McCoy in terms of running style. I also think he's a capable receiver, but he just wasn't used much in that regard in college.
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