smash-a-mus

Just because cobb and lacy have high prices doesn't mean that their fantasy value can't increase. Everyone's value system is different but I value Cobb and Lacy much higher than the ridiculous prices that they are already going for. I would take Lacy #1 or Cobb (if healthy) over Demar, Aj, Calvin putting him in the category of the Top tier WRs. That's how much I value those guys this year as result of the Nelson Injury. Conversely, I DONT value Adams as high as others this year. I see that his value increases but there is no guarantee that Ty or Janis ends up eating up the extra looks or maybe Adam's stats last year was predicated on Cobb and Nelson clearing out the defense? Im not paying 2nd or 3rd round prices on a WR that has question marks for me. I would have been perfectly happy drafting him towards the end with hopes that he develops. I hope that clarifies my point a little bit.

Hey I said "Sneaky" mainly because of the health issues of Shady and Williams, Brown could get a start week 1.

Bryce Brown is a sneaky handcuff

Im with tantastic. I'm not completely sold on Adams either. I liked him better when he was a sleeper in the late rounds. I think his value is grossly inflated now. I agree that he is going to have more targets as the result of the injury but I don't think he's in the same category as Cooks, Matthews and Evans. I would take Hopkins, sanders, maclin, and even andre johnson over him. I know a lot of attention has been given to Adam but the Nelson injury actually benefits Cobb and Lacy more so that Adams. Not enough has been said about the increased looks that Cobb and increased carries/ dump offs that Lacy will have as result of the Nelson injury.

Gray is probably a better daily fantasy pick than in season long fantasy pick. Draft and pray you'll get that magical 4 td game from him.

Gronk just became more expensive

Certain guys just make things look like an art form. It's not just about the stats when you talk about ODB. He has crazy ideas in his head where he will try something that no other WRs would even think to do. We talk about the radius where a QB can hit a particular receiver. For example, gronk has a crazy wide radius because of his length and athleticism. I think you can make the same case for ODB. His one handed skills affords him a wide catch radius. I dont know where he will finish this year but I will be following his games like I followed Stephen Curry in NBA this year.

You might be right on PHI and they might be up so much that you're throwing every down. I just noticed though.. i made a mistake, Bell is out only 2 weeks so you're looking at CLE who has the worst run defense and IND who belichek likes to make his little by running 40 times in a game.

what is it that you want to know?

Ivory is a perfect fill in.. First three games CLE, IND, PHI. Clear starter with no Ridley who is on PUP

You should fade your picks. (Sports betting terminology to pick against yourself). Draft who you like the least out of the 1st round running backs. Problem solved!

Tennessee has arguably the worst players at the skilled positions on offense. I want nothing to do with any player from Titans.

White men can't jump? http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/zach-zenner?id=2552384

Its not as clear cut because its a 3WR league. You add a little weight to WRs obviously just like you would with QBs in 2QB leagues. I think if you look on any experts lists.. you'll see gronk around $45 and JM around $20. So you would be looking at basically a tie in straight savings if it was a normal 2WR league with a flex. Since its a 3WR league, the tie goes to JM.

Bold prediction: Jamaal Charles will be good this year

Greg Olsen with 1000 targets before halftime.

I dont think Cowboys will give 70 mil with 32 mil guaranteed if that story had any weight.

Awesome title for a thread. Talk about bold projections.

I waited too long to take my RB and ended up with Melvin as my rb1. I didn't know too much about him because I don't follow college that closely. I did a little research on him and he averaged 7 yards per carry last year. BUT I guess he shuffles his feet too much so he gets stuffed at the line a lot. (I forget the exact percentage but I think 20% of his carries) I don't know what Wisconsin's system is like but he must be a boom or bust kind of runner. I mean how else do you average 7 yards a carry when you get stuffed 20% of the time at the line? I'm not sure how that translates to the pros but I know it is probably going to lead to a lot of frustration for owners early going. If I had to do the draft over, I would probably take Abdullah over Melvin but target Melvin for a trade mid-season with hopes that he might break out at some point like Jeremy hill did last year.

If you're drafting a rookie, you're really not expecting production right away so I think Gurley being injured and being eased in is not the most terrible thing. What is terrible is the price tag on him. He's coming in with so much hype, that he's the next Jim Brown and ADP. I'll believe it when I see it. I saw some highlight tapes and he looks impressive but have you seen Melvin Gordon's highlights? Holy f*ck. If you are drafting with keepers in mind, I would target Melvin over Gurley. He's got a good offensive line at least and immediate reps. He has a chance to get used to the NFL speed for the 1st half and put up some great 2nd half stats like Jeremy last year and warrant the price tag next year to justify keeping him.

Hyde has always passed the eye test and looked great this preseason too. He concern has been mostly about the organization that is imploding. I think he can put up decent stats this year but will be limited by the game situations where they are constantly playing from behind. He's an under rated pass catcher so hopefully he can get some there. I had Hyde as a keeper but traded him for jmatthews. I hope I did the right thing.

For me it comes down to trying to gather up as much good will between me and the other owners as possible... so I would absolutely give them advice... with hopes that I'll trade-rape them later in the season.

It amazes me how long this thread is

Keepers is a loose term. It could mean rookies or veterans you got at value. I would approach a keeper auction like you would at any auction (except slightly inflated prices for rookies.) The entire goal is to get the players you like at the lowest possible price. I've seen keepers come beginning middle and late in drafts. It could be because people are scared of an injury the year prior (ie Julio jones) or people are out of money and let one slip, or just plain dumb luck. I would focus on not blowing your whole wad early and make sure you put yourself in an opportunity to snag someone cheap. There's nothing worse than watching your friend get that fire sale on a player you would have bid the f up.

I knew I wasnt crazy... here's the article http://fftoday.com/articles/mitchell/15_bust_rates_rbs_wrs.html "Interestingly, the numbers shift a lot when we focus on the biggest studs. Across the board, top five wide receivers have been a better option than top five running backs."