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The team that gets LeSean McCoy, and its not close.

Mendenhall, and the other two are on my "Do not draft" list.

Top 6 Rushers by Elusive Rating, 2008-2010Jonathan Stewart DeAngelo Williams Fred Jackson Marshawn Lynch Ahmad Bradshaw Adrian L. Peterson http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/07/13/elusive-rating-2008-2010/ Saying he's not good isn't really correct. He's played for bad teams, with bad offensive lines, and he can try to stretch out runs a little long when he should just ram his head into the pile. But the guy has some skills.

Trade A is the only one that seems fair. I wouldn't touch the others. I probably would sit tight though.

I'm not a fan of AJ Green (I don't think he's very good, and I don't like Andy Dalton). Julio Jones would probably be my #1 pick in a dynasty rookie draft, since his QB situation is a lot better & he was a better college player. I'd try trading back in the round if I were you. I'm not a huge believer in Thomas or Ingram. So trading your #1 pick, letting someone draft Ingram/Green, then picking Julio with your #2 pick seems like a good deal. That'd allow you to either get more picks later in the draft to get a guy like Helu, or get a player from another guy in the league to help you right now. Also consider drafting a tight end at some point.

Pete Carrol gave Lynch a 2:1 carry split over Forsett. Its obvious the coaching staff doesn't view Forsett as a guy who can handle more than 10 touches a game. I agree though, Forsett's play *should* earn him more playing time, but it won't. Also, Pro Football Focus grades Lynch as one of the best RB's in the league over the past 3 years... He's actually a lot more talented than people give him credit for.

Without knowing where you picked guys, and what ESPN standard scoring is, its really hard to tell. But to me, your RB's look really weak. Fred Jackson is not a viable RB2, and your RB depth isn't great. Since RB's are typically the scarcest position, I'd expect this team to do pretty poorly.

Foster for 2 years @ $10 for me please, but its close.

In my experience this rarely happens. If you can get a sucker to let you move up in a round to jump ahead of a team with the same needs as you then I might do it, but most of the time teams rarely want to move back in an early round in order to move up in a later one.

Mendenhall & Wallace, I don't think its close.

With your league this shallow, RB and probably TE are going to be the only positions that matter. With only 8 teams, quarterback will be very very deep. Only one team will be left without an elite option, as the top 7 quarterbacks are all pretty decent. Just make sure you get one out of the group of Romo/Rivers/Manning/Brees/Brady/Rodgers/Vick, so you want to be about the 5th-7th (but not 8th) team to pick a quarterback. RB, TE, and WR are the most important positions, probably in that order. Tight end will be a pretty scarce position, as there are really only 4 tight ends that are any good with this scoring system & eight team league (Gates, Clark, Davis, Finley). There's a big drop off to Witten, Daniels, Graham, Zach Miller, and you don't want to be a team stuck without a top 4 tight end option. So you want to be the 1st-3rd team to pick a tight end. The key is just to be sure to draw tiers, and make sure that when there are only 3-4 options left for you in that tier that you take your guy. You don't want to wait to select a tight end when only Vernon Davis is left, because he may get drafted before he gets to you. Ignore the other positions. Defense, IDP, Kicker should be taken in the last 3 rounds in that order, no exceptions. And make your IDP player a "Mike" linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, they rack up the most tackles. There's plenty of linebacker depth too, so no rush to pick the right guy. Good IDP's would be Patrick Willis, James Laurinaitis, Brian Urlacher, Jon Beason, Jerod Mayo, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Chad Greenway, ect. They'll easily rack up over 100 tackles, plus a few of the other stats.

All you guys projecting over 200 carries for a rookie back in a lockout year that plays for Sean Payton are nuts. The Saints rushed the ball 380 times last year. If you think a rookie is getting over half of that workload with 4 other talented backs on the roster, you're nuts. Even if Ivory doesn't play at all in 2011, Sproles & Thomas *will* eat into Ingram's carries.

His ADP is already early 1st round, I don't see how people could be valuing him *more*. John Fox has never been one to use a goal line vulture, Stewart & DeAngelo split those carries pretty evenly. In 2009, DeAngelo had 10 rushes inside the 5 yard line, Stewart had 14. Pretty even split. Just because Cam Cameron & Harbaugh used McGahee as a goal line back doesn't mean John Fox will. If anything, you should be worried about Tebow as a vulture rather than McGahee.

Considering he's the 29th RB drafted, if you think 25 RB's are better, then you'd be getting a 4 RB discount considering where he's drafted... I agree with OP on Lynch. There are a lot of low-upside, high carries RB's this year. Lynch, Daniel Thomas, Felix Jones, Ryan Grant, Benson all are likely to break 200 carries and can be had after the first 4 rounds. Last year after round 4, you'd be lucky to find a RB projected for 150.

Thomas is the 27th RB off the board on average, Greene is the 18th..... 200 carries for an ADP of the 5th-6th round in fantasy leagues is pretty sexy.

That sounds about right. Assuming they don't draft anyone else, I think this boosts both Moreno & McGahee's value. 1) Moreno gets a boost because McGahee isn't a big threat to steal carries like DeAngelo Williams would be. You can probably safely project him for 200+ carries if he stays healthy. 2) McGahee has decent value as a guy getting 10+ carries a game the way Correll Buckhalter did 2 seasons ago. Plus he now plays behind an injury prone starter, so he's got the upside to get 25+ carries per game if Moreno goes down. Both of their ADP's are pretty tasty. We'll see how much Moreno's ADP rises, but they both are probably going to end up being a bargain. I think people will over-rate how many TD's Tebow will steal, and they'll under rate John Fox's love for the running game.

Evaluating futures for next season essentially boils down to two things: 1) How good is the head coach? 2) How good is the quarterback? Those are the two biggest factors of next season success, and they're pretty easy to evaluate. The Cowboys at +1800 seem reasonable. I'm a Jason Garrett believer, and Tony Romo is a proven elite QB. The Rams also seem like a great pick at +6000. Bradford & Spags seem like a decent combo to hang your hat on.

Aren't you the same guy who said Dexter McCluster was going to be a huge impact player in 2010? [/cheap shot]

MJD in the top 5 and SJax in the top 10 really seems irresponsible to me. MJD is coming off a horrific knee injury, and SJax is almost certainly on the decline given his age/total carries/McDaniels.

Yeah, Orth is usually a decent read. But Autry, Stringer, and others on this site have written some stuff that just blows my mind.

FFToday's articles are routinely clueless, just use the site for the awesome AWESOME statistics they put up. Their stats section & fantasy points against are MILES ahead of the rest, but apparently their experts have no clue how to interpret them. I'm starting Eli.

I need Randy Moss to keep it in his pants. Less than 12 points please.

Please include your own buy-lows below, and be sure to make fun of mine while you're at it. Quarterbacks Brett Favre - Yes, he's been terrible. Yes, his offensive line isn't going to get better anytime soon. But he may be getting Randy Moss, he has very easy match ups in weeks 8 and 9 (when Flacco, E. Manning, Ryan, Vick/Kolb, McNabb, ect. have byes), and they may be improved coming out of the bye. If you own one of the QB's I named above, Favre makes a very cheap QB2 option. I traded Matt Ryan for Favre/F. Jackson today, and I expect Favre to pair with Flacco quite well. Eli Manning - Eli has had some awful weeks recently, posting a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. However, many of those interceptions were fluky tipped balls, not the fault of poor accuracy. Additionally, Eli's upcoming schedule is to die for: Houston, Detroit, Dallas, Bye, Seattle. That's 3 out of his next 4 match ups against bottom 6 pass defenses. He's on pace for 4000 yards this season, and injuries to the running game are already starting. Buy while his value is low. Runningbacks Thomas Jones - Thomas Jones was likely drafted as a bench RB option, and its unlikely your opponent planned to use them as an every week starter (thus, you can obtain him cheaply). However, Jones has quietly had a lot of fantasy value. He's averaged 4.2 yds/carry against 3 very solid run defenses. His upcoming schedule is as tasty as it gets with match ups against four of the bottom 8 run defenses in his next 5 weeks. If you're 1-3 or 2-2, and you need to win BADLY in the upcoming weeks, Jones is a great trade target to get you some wins in the very near future. However, given his age (aka, injury risk) and his tough playoff schedule, owners who are 4-0 or 3-1 should abstain. Marshawn Lynch - Owners may be disappointed that Lynch went to Sea. However, Lynch is expected to take over all the early down duties. Additionally, he's on his bye this week, so owners may not want to sit through it. And like most buy-lows, Lynch's upcoming schedule is excellent. After his bye, he faces run defenses in the bottom half of the league for the next 6 weeks, including dates with Oakland & Arizona twice. WR's Santonio Holmes - Now that other owners have done all the work of waiting on Holmes for you, you should consider sniping him off of their rosters. Holmes was a 1000 yard WR last year, and Mark Sanchez has certainly made a leap in his second year. Braylon Edward's recent DWI has not made him any friends in the front office, and likely won't be a Jet next year. Holmes could possibly take over Edward's role, and the upcoming schedule is quite good. In the Jets next 8 games, they face 5 bottom ten defenses: Denver(7th), Detroit(10th), Cleveland(3rd), Houston(4th), and New England(5th). So if you're 1-3 or 2-2, take a gamble on Holmes, who can be had fairly cheaply right now. Wes Welker - The last two games for Welker have been relatively quiet, posting 12 rec's for 115 yards in the last two contests. Now he goes on his bye week and his owner might be in a must-win situation. If you're in a PPR league and can deal with Welker being on bye, now is a great time to acquire last years highest per game scorer. Randy Moss is too busy pouting, and may even be dealt to the Vikings. So given Welker's slump, and possibly increased role, I'd say make an offer. Kenny Britt - Possibly on waivers, but if he's not, he can be had for probably the worst player on your roster. Justin Gage just pulled his hamstring so Britt should see an increased role. You could possibly wait one week to buy Britt, but I would go ahead and pull the trigger now. Dallas has respectable corners, but Jacksonville's league worst secondary will likely be Britt's coming out party. Sure, Britt's upside is capped playing for the Titans, but 3-1 and 4-0 teams should buy him on the cheap & stash him for his late season schedule. From week 11-15, the best pass defense the Titans face is ranked 8th (Indy).

Not a bad suggestion, but I don't think its owner's last chance. But Bryant's upside is undeniable, and you can get it at a discount right now. Each week you put off making a play for Bryant is one more week he could explode. Yes, and Rotoworld agrees with me. Jeff Otah will be back in week 6, and Clausen will continue to get better each week taking pressure off of those two. However, Goodson is still getting mixed in on 3rd downs and its not like Clausen is going to stop throwing picks anytime soon. I'd make a play for them, but I wouldn't go crazy trying to get them.

Players on the PUP list have to sit out until week 7. However, he's healthy now and practicing. And I agree, he's a great roster stash. GB's unwillingness to go out and get a RB, or sign a veteran may be a vote of confidence on Starks. If you're speculating, I think Starks is a great roster stash. I wanted to wait until next week, but someone's already scooped him up in one of my leagues, so I suppose its time to pull the trigger.