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c9h13no3

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Everything posted by c9h13no3

  1. c9h13no3

    McGahee's Backup?

    McGahee has no handcuff. Maybe Hillman or Moreno is worth owning if McGahee goes down, but they're not worth a pickup right now.
  2. After 3-4 weeks of games under our belt, we now know who the good & bad match ups will be. Plus, you now probably have a good idea of what you have in your team. So time to make some adjustments through the trade market. Here I'll advocate 3-4 QBs to buy based on strength of schedule, and whether their role is expected to grow in the second half of the season. I also have included a couple of players you can pickup off the waiver wire, since many fantasy leagues have teams that just refuse to trade. Quarterbacks Peyton Manning - The best QB to target on the trade market right now is probably Peyton Manning. He has one of the 3 easiest schedules in the league coming up, and his team will also start to improve through the year as they adjust to playing under Manning's new offense. Use all of the "no arm strength" talk as a buy low opportunity. Philip Rivers - He currently ranks 21st in points per game, yet even in a down year last year, he finished 8th. He also has a cakewalk schedule upcoming. The price tag on Rivers should be low & ripe for the picking. Joe Flacco - He currently ranks 6th in fantasy points per game scored, and this isn't an anomaly. The offensive philosophy has shifted considerably in Baltimore. Flacco has to face Houston & Dallas in the next 3 weeks, and then he hits his bye week. If his owners are feeling down on him after those two tough matchups, and they're in a bye week crunch, steal Flacco away before he blows up with an easy schedule in the 2nd half. Carson Palmer - See a trend here with AFC West QB's? The AFC West has poor pass defenses this year, and they play the NFC South with cake matchups against Tampa, Carolina, and New Orleans. And if you're in a league that rarely gets trades done, and you need some QB help off the waiver wire, Carson Palmer is a pretty good target. Tim Tebow - Mark Sanchez sucks, and Tebow has provided QB1 value when he starts in the past. Sometimes its that simple.
  3. I'm in a two QB league, and I waited super late on QB. How would you rank these QB's for the rest of the year? I've included each player's yards per attempt & fantasy points so far. 1) Carson Palmer - 7.13 YPA, 35.5 fantasy points 2) Matt Cassel - 7.45 YPA, 34.8 fantasy points 3) Christian Ponder - 8.31 YPA, 25.4 fantasy points 4) Mark Sanchez - 7.48 YPA, 30.1 fantasy points 5) Jake Locker - 6.50 YPA, 21.4 fantasy points I think for the rest of the year, I'd rank them like that. Palmer's defense is terrible, and McFadden doesn't seem to be the same guy in Knapp's scheme. Cassel is in the same sort of situation, terrible D and a mediocre run game. Sanchez would totally be higher if I knew he could keep up the rushing TD's he's put up from the past 3 years. But with Tebow hanging around, it seems like his job security and rushing TD potential is capped. Ponder's TD totals seem capped with AP around, and he's not putting up rushing numbers like he did last year. Jake Locker just looks like a bust through two games, and I'm not sure if Kenny Britt saves him.
  4. c9h13no3

    Which trade should I offer/do?

    I'd prolly try to put a 2 for 2 package together with one of your RBs. Your 2nd WR spot can be filled through the waiver wire. The replacement level WRs are plentiful, and guys like Danny Amendola, McCluster, Bess or Hartline, Avery, or McCoy should be out there on your wire. Add as needed, play matchups.
  5. c9h13no3

    Which trade should I offer/do?

    Those are the only ones that have a prayer, and even then they'll prolly get declined. How'd you end up with such a thin team in a 12 man PPR? It seems like you don't have a 7th, 8th, or 9th round pick. Also, you should consider trading Steve Smith, since he gets downgraded in PPR formats. I wouldn't be looking to trade a weekly difference-maker like MJD, unless I had RB depth on your bench behind him. You're better off with MJD + Replacement level scrub than you are with any 2 players that anyone will likely offer you.
  6. c9h13no3

    Rate my team. 12man PPR league. Should I drop anyone?

    Trade Smith while he's healthy, get yourself a real WR2.
  7. c9h13no3

    Should I trade Jaquizz Rogers for Mike Goodson

    What he said. Stand pat with Rodgers unless he'll give you more in return.
  8. c9h13no3

    Not liking my team much...rate my team please

    Pick Kyle Rudolph/Jermaine Gresham/Greg Olsen up off of waivers. Your TE situation is below replacement level. I'd prolly cut Winslow to make that addition. I'd probably have drafted 2 TE's, instead of 2 QB's as well.
  9. In week 1 & 2 (no byes, few injuries) if you're starting any of the backup SD RB's in a 12 team league, your team is terrible. I own Mathews in both leagues I'm in so far (he's just SO TASTY in round 3) and I couldn't care less if someone picks up Ronnie Brown off of waivers. I'm starting Ridley or Peyton Hillis in the two leagues I own Mathews in, and I expect them to do better than Ronnie Brown or Curtis Brinkley. Mathews has no clear handcuff right now, so unless you're in a super deep league, you're not owning any other SD running back.
  10. c9h13no3

    MJD Owner wants my Rashad

    You're getting ripped. Tell him you want a WR that's being drafted in the 8th round range. That's typically where Jennings is being drafted these days. So you'd want like Garcon, Blackmon, Titus Young, Kenny Britt, Meachem, Kendall Wright, Greg Little, or Denarius Moore for Rashad. Tampa Mike is an 11th round pick, so you're giving up 3 rounds of value there, and you have all the leverage in this trade. So if anything, he should be the one giving up value.
  11. c9h13no3

    Just Finished Draft 12 Team PPR

    1) You drafted a QB too early unless you got Eli in like the 8th round. Trade him for upgrades at WR. 2) Your WR's take a rankings hit in PPR (except Wayne). 3) You need a backup TE, Witten is unlikely to go week 1. I'd suggest Rudolph/Gresham. 4) Cut Alex Smith for a backup QB with some upside (or better yet, no backup QB). The #1 thing PPR does is devalue the QB position relative to the other ones (because QB's don't catch anything). You want to be the last team in your league to draft a QB while you're stocking up on every other position.
  12. c9h13no3

    Leshoure

    Its the achilles injury & the fact that the lions threw the ball more than any other team in the league last year. But I agree, he has significant upside compared to where he's being drafted.
  13. c9h13no3

    Ced Benson

    Sigh, as much as I hate Cedric Benson this year, I totally drafted him on my team last night . Drafted him in the 10th round as my RB4. I guess I "like" him at that price, its still just kinda icky. Also, the people comparing him to Ryan Grant are nuts. Totally different era, different QB, and a young runner in his prime. Now the Packers have the best QB in a league which has switched over to a passing one.
  14. c9h13no3

    Ced Benson

    If you combined James Starks & Ryan Grant into one guy, you'd get 267 carries & 3 touchdowns. 267 carries comes to 1014 rushing yards at 3.8 yards a pop. And that assumes that Benson never misses a game, and Benson gets ALL of the workload (which is almost never the case). There's no way he reaches 1100 rushing yards and 10 TD's. Lets put money on it, I'll give you odds
  15. c9h13no3

    Ced Benson

    Do not draft list IMO. There's no way he reaches the 18.2 carries per game he got in Cincinatti last year. If I were projecting a line for Benson, I'd say: 190 carries, 3.8 ypc (his career average), 722 rushing yards, 160 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns. 118.2 fantasy points, good for the 33rd overall fantasy RB in 2011. If you thought Brandon Jacobs was great last year, then I suppose you can draft Cedric Benson. He offers next to no upside, and PLENTY of downside. He's old, he's never been super talented, and Alex Green has looked pretty good in preseason. These low upside picks are exactly the types of players you stay away from in the middle to late rounds.
  16. c9h13no3

    So which QB comes out of nowhere?

    I'll take a stab on any late round QB with rushing ability. Jake Locker, Russel Wilson, Christian Ponder, and Andrew Luck keep finding their way onto my teams this year. Fitzpatrick always seems like a value in drafts, but I usually shoot for more upside than he offers in the late rounds when I'm drafting a backup.
  17. c9h13no3

    Picking in the 6 Slot in a 14 man league

    Don't play in big money leagues if you have to ask forums for advice.... Seems like a pretty clear spot to select a RB to me though. The baseline production for RB's is going to be crazy low in a 14 teamer. Either way you slice it, you probably need a RB in one of your first two picks. And I hate the 2nd round RB's that will come back to you in round 2 (Peterson, SJax, ect.).
  18. c9h13no3

    Marshawn Lynch

    That was the Fred Jackson year. Lynch was suspended for the first 3 games of the season because they found a gun in his car, and then lost his job when Fred Jackson hit him with some Wally Pip action over those first 3 games.
  19. c9h13no3

    Steve Smith, WR, Rams

    He's at least returning punts. Pead was the first team kick returner in the first preseason game.http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/rams-report/throwing-johnny-hekker-a-rams-secret-weapon/article_71f2065c-dc15-11e1-bc23-001a4bcf6878.html
  20. c9h13no3

    DMC

    A few points on McFadden: 1) Staying healthy is a skill. Its not just luck. Keeping your flexibility up, genetics, eating right, putting time in the weight room, and keeping up your rehab exercises long after you're hurt all contribute to health. McFadden can't stay healthy, and at this point its not just bad luck. He's played an average of 10 games a season, and I'd project him to play 11 or so. 2) Last year I owned McFadden in every league, but I also owned Bush in every league. McFadden was a great pick when he had a clear handcuff. This year we don't know who his back up is, and whether they'll get a full time gig if DMC gets hurt. I probably won't own McFadden in any leagues this year. 3) The raiders are no longer coached by Hue Jackson, and they figure to run less and throw more in the future given their personel. So people expecting his upside to be higher this year because he'll now get goal line work might be dissappointed.
  21. c9h13no3

    Cedric Benson is a Packer

    Yep. The wind is totally out of those sails, along with Alex Green a little bit. The whole Packer's backfield is now worthless in fantasy IMO.
  22. c9h13no3

    The Late Round Flier List

    After round 9 in your fantasy draft, upside is all that matters. We're looking to collect lightining in a bottle. So with that in mind, lets try to find some players who have enough of a path to opportunity & upside that they're worth targeting in the late rounds. Keep in mind, all of these selections come in round 10 or below, preferably undrafted when possible. Quarterbacks Carson Palmer - ADP 10.12 - Averaged more than 8 YPA last year in a new offense, has put up good fantasy numbers before. Maybe he just hated playing in Cinci? Christian Ponder - ADP Undrafted - Had more than 20 rushing yards per game last year, has the starting gig nailed down, and Rotoworld's Silva believes he has franchise QB potential. Jake Locker - ADP 13.11 - Has serious rushing ability, and averaged 8.2 YPA last year in limited action. Running Backs A theme with my RB & WR selections will be to take the cheaper player when there's turnover at a position. Examples of this strategy include selecting Steve Smith instead of Hixon when Plaxico shot himself a while back. Or Austin Collie instead of Pierre Garcon in 2010. If there's opportunities there, don't assume the guy who was next in line gets those opportunities. Evan Royster - ADP 12.11 - All Shanahan RB's are a dice roll. So if you're rolling the dice, shouldn't you select the cheaptest option? Plus he's running with the starters. Alex Green - ADP Undrafted - James Starks is getting bad reviews in camp, Green is getting good ones. Plus, the Packers committed a 3rd round pick to Green, so they have more invested in him than Starks. Jonathan Dwyer - ADP Undrafted - Isaac Redman is a backup caliber talent, and Dwyer & Redman were in a RBBC in the first game Mendenhall missed in 2011. Then injuries kept him off the field for the rest of the year. Wide Receivers There are a lot of WR's worth taking fliers on, but I tried to stick with ones that had a chance for seeing 110+ targets. Steve Smith - ADP Undrafted - The other Smith is a proven WR finally over microfracture surgery. Brian Quick is the trendy pick here, and Amendola has no upside, so go with the guy who is having a rebirth. Chad Johnson/Ochocinco - ADP 11.08 - Someone in Miami is going to have value since Brandon Marshall left. Between Davone Bess, Hartline, and Ocho, I'll gamble Chad has something left at this price tag. Josh Gordon - ADP Undrafted - The Browns had the 11th most passing attempts in 2011 in their pass heavy west coast scheme, and Gordon is already drawing reviews as the best WR in camp. Honorable Mentions: Kendall Wright & Nate Washington, Leonard Hankerson, Brandon LaFell, Terrel Owens (his ADP will rise) Tight Ends The trendy TE's like Gresham & Cook, I think we've seen what they can do and they don't have super high ceilings. While they're a better bet for TE1 type production, I think the guys below have higher ceilings. Kyle Rudolph - ADP 13.08 - Gettings tons of camp buzz, 2nd year TE has breakout potential. Coby Fleener - ADP 12.09 - Rookie TE's rarely do anything, but could there be a better setup for a rookie TE? Rob Housler - ADP Undrafted - Has TE1 caliber skills and has already been showing off in the HOF game. So yeah, I'll be editing this list myself as I go through mocks. Thoughts?
  23. c9h13no3

    2012 Auction Targets and Strategy

    I've noted the bad press in this thread, but sometimes the press doesn't mean anything. If he looks bad in preseason games, sure I'll move him down my list. But training camp hype is quite often just hype. In 2010, people were raving about how Randy Moss was in amazing shape & lighting up practices, more motivated than ever. With Starks, its just opportunity. Ryan Grant left 134 carries and 19 receptions on the table. If Starks gets half of that workload, he'll have 1160 total yards (870 rushing, 290 receiving) if he keeps his career yards per carry/reception averages where they were last year. Alex Green is getting good press, and I'm drafting him a lot too. But 1160 yards from scrimmage and 6 TD's puts Starks as the 20th ranked RB last year (a low end RB2). In round 7 with guys like Ben Tate & Mark Ingram as the other options, I find myself selecting him quite often as my RB3.
  24. c9h13no3

    2012 Auction Targets and Strategy

    Actually, since its half point per reception, it makes the value of QB's go down significantly. You should probably look to target a cheaper QB, in the Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers tier. It depends on the scoring system, but Steven Ridley, James Starks, Dwayne Bowe, Percy Harvin, and Michael Vick have been on my teams a lot.
  25. c9h13no3

    The Late Round Flier List

    His price tag is still a LITTLE high for me, given how much of an injury risk he is. But he certainly fits the bill of a high risk, high reward player. Its just the signals the Seahawks are sending out (looking through the WR veteran scrap heap at record pace) don't bode well for Rice's health. I'd prefer to pay an 11th round pick.
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