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Studs are often hard to buy low on because people have confidence that they'll bounce back. Fitz I think is the only truly buy-low, because the problems are with his quarterback play and not him. You could probably get an owner to over-react. But that's a solid list none-the-less.

I agree with you, and I've explained myself here.

Jennings isn't going to help you if MJD has a Forte type year where he plays hurt the whole time and is pretty ineffective. Just sayin'.

GG Brees owner.

I cannot figure out why you'd rank CJ as #1 option in PPR leagues. He's a deep threat, and even when full healthy has never caught more than 80 balls in a season. Your ranking is so far off that its borderline criminal to post it in an advice thread. If anything he gets a boost in standard leagues, not PPR. I'm not good at making projections, but that's fine, because there are tons of people out there who are. The most accurate projection makers over the last 3 years at WR have been CBS Sports (well, Rotoworld is more accurate, but you have to pay for their projections). According to CBS this year: Standard Leagues: Wayne, Austin, CJ PPR: Wayne, Austin, CJ And I agree with them. Reggie Wayne plays in a ridiculously good offense, has the better quarterback, and has been a top 12 fantasy WR for the last 4 years (and in 2005 he finished 16th). He's only 31 years old as well, so you can't drop the "he's old" bomb yet. Calvin has an injury history, and some question marks at quarterback. He might be the most talented WR in the league, but when it comes to the situation he's in, he's certainly 3rd on this list. Also, I'd like to say that I'm blown away by how many people would go with upside over a safe floor in the early rounds. If your 1st/2nd round pick busts, it makes things especially difficult to come back and win your league. I know several people who drafted Chris Johnson in the first round and still failed to make the playoffs last year. Security early, lottery tickets late. This is why I play this game for money.... people are just so bad at it.

Here, we have a guy who only considers a player's ceiling. Sure, Matthews could be a stud, he could catch 40 passes, and be the team's goal line option while carrying the ball 250 times. What happens if Mathews loses goal line carries, and only catches 10 balls this year? He sucks in a PPR league, that's what. McCoy, Addai, and Forte are all going later in the draft, and each of them have much better floors in a PPR league. Save the "drunk with upside" picks for after round 4. In a non-PPR league, I like Mathews a lot more, and I LOVE him as a selection in the 3rd round. But in PPR leagues, he loses a ton of his appeal. So, in conclusion, the riskiness of Mathews, combined with the fact that Gore is injury prone, AND considering that Forsett might only get 8 carries a game in a nasty committee, then I think you need another RB on your team. I like all 4 WR options though, so you're deep at WR. I'd probably trade Knox now while the hype on him is crazy high.

Forsett is so over-drafted this year, I think he's over-valued in the 6th. I'd probably try to trade him now while he's still got a lot of value. Also, why did you draft Zach Miller? Gates is an every week starter, and they share the same bye week. Just a wasted pick, especially since TE's don't have a lot of trade value. I'd be looking for a running back to go behind Mathews. He probably won't catch the ball more than 30 times, and he's got real potential to lose goal line carries as well. So he may not be an every week starter. I'd feel better with a more reliable flex option behind him other than Forsett. So try to trade Miller, Forsett, or Knox for an upside RB. Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Marion Barber, or Ahmad Bradshaw would be a strong addition to this team. And even a trade like Zach Miller for Hardesty/Hightower/Harrison/McFadden would be an improvement.

Drafting a back up TE seems like a waste with only 5 bench spots. Sproles also has very low upside, so I'd like to see a better flex option there. Its impossible to tell how good this team will be without knowing how many teams are in your league, and what your scoring system is.

Flacco has bad match ups through out the season. Drafting a QB based on playing him for 1-2 match ups seems silly. And strength of schedule analysis is over-rated. Plus, if you want to plug & play a guy like Orton in, he'll be available on the wire. Stafford, Roethlisberger, and McNabb have top 12 upside on their own. Plus Stafford, McNabb have schedules that work well with Flacco's. When he has a bad match up or a bye, Stafford & McNabb have an easy match up more often than any other legit QB2 option.

Joe Flacco(8): Stafford, McNabb, Roethlisberger

QB/WR on the same team is something to think about. It exposes you to *SLIGHTLY* more risk and inconsistency. So if I had the option of Tony Romo & Matt Schaub (who I think are essentially equal tier 2 QB's) then I'd take Romo if I already owned Andre Johnson. However, if I needed a QB, and Schaub was the best value on the board for my team, then its a no brainer to take Schaub.

If you go by who's getting the first team reps, he's already getting first team reps. This is still going to be a 3-headed monster, so don't get too excited. But if he can carve out 180 touches, he'd certainly be valuable in PPR leagues and he'll be a flex starter against soft defenses even if Julius Jones keeps getting reps.

Same upside as Forsett, but 5 rounds cheaper.

This depends on your scoring system. Also, google "value based drafting". Scoring a lot of points doesn't necessarily mean that the player is more valuable. What matters most is how much a player outscores his peers. And in just about every scoring system, the top 4-5 RB's outscore their peers by a LOT. The most of any player in the league. CJ2K was retardedly so much better than the 24th ranked running back, it was ridiculous. If it was just about scoring fantasy points, then the first round of your draft should be Aaron Rodgers 1st, Brees 2nd, Manning 3rd, ect. QB's score the most points in just about every scoring system, but that doesn't matter for sh!t if they ALL score a lot of points.

They may score top 10 numbers, but you're focusing on the rank too much. The top 4-5 backs are vastly more valuable than their peers, and they give you the biggest edge to win in fantasy football.

To quote a great article by Chase Stuart http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/fantasy-drafting-how-to-maximize-value-by-position-and-by-round/

I'm a McCluster detractor, and my dislike of him is well documented in other threads. I currently have multiple prop bets out, betting that he won't be fantasy relevant this year. The Chiefs drafted him because he was an exciting player to watch in college. He'll put butts in seats (especially during the preseason), and will get everyone excited talking about how "electric" he is. But as far as fantasy production, he's a real long shot to do much. Panthers did the same thing with Armanti Edwards (which saddens me, since I'm a Panther fan). Ability to sell tickets is one factor no one talks about when picking where players get drafted in the NFL draft.

What is performance scoring? Paste your league's settings in this thread.

Portis is going to be this year's Julius Jones. The guy has like a bajillion carries under his belt, and Shanahan loves... Shanahannigans.

1) Project stats for your players. If you don't want to do that, use other people's accurate projections. 2) Convert that into fantasy points. 3) Subtract each player's fantasy point total by the total points of the worst starter in your league. 4) So them by the amount of points they have left. 5) Draft accordingly. Value based drafting for the win. The first couple rounds are typically your easiest, so if you're having trouble with that, you're probably failing at the rest of your draft as well. When you use a weird scoring system, you pretty much need to go through this exercise. If you don't mind using FFToday's projections, you can pretty much do steps 1-3 on this site. And using VBD doesn't take into account things like risk, so obviously you don't want to follow this method to a T. However, it will let you know which positions you should be taking at the top of your draft. But with your weird scoring system, I'm betting its going to be a QB.

Hi guys, I've been spending so much time hunting up players for the two leagues I'm a commish for that I'm a little late joining another. I'm just particular about the scoring system and the payout methods. I prefer that the league use LeagueSafe, and I don't want to play in any leagues with outlandish scoring systems. Standard scoring or PPR is preferred. I'm up for 2QB, auctions, whatever. It would help if you had an AIM or Skype account so we could talk about things. Let me know. -C9

Berrian > Walker IMO

Unless your league has very deep rosters where you can afford to carry 2 defenses all year, I'd rather just play match ups off the waiver wire.

Yeah, I usually don't end up with Thomas on my team, since his ADP is (illogically) high. And while owning Raiders has been painful in the past, it seems illogical to not draft a guy just because you've been burned before. Look at things with a fresh, unbiased point of view.

1) Mike Thomas isn't a rookie. That's a good thing.2) In non-PPR formats, I'd probably target someone who has more upside at making touchdowns. Generally small slot guys aren't great red zone targets (see Welker, Wes). As a flier in standard TD/Yardage leagues, I'd say Murphy, D. Thomas, and Hartline. All 3 of those guys are 6'2", and are more likely to score a ton of TD's if they break out. Mike Thomas will be serviceable in standard leagues, but I think his upside is capped a bit.