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You don't get it. A pick calculator essentially shows you how to value picks. For example: A 1st round pick is equal to a 2nd round pick, plus a fifth round pick (or something like that). So if you're trading picks, it allows you to try and see what's fair value.

Why are you trying to get rid of a young RB when RB is your weakest position? If anything, I'd be trying to GET another RB, not deal one away.

8.03 Beanie Wells 9.10 Ryan Williams Both of those ADP's are sexy...

Decline trade with a quickness.

I'd keep Zach Miller, throw back Celek.

10 keepers is a lot, its likely that the draft picks you'll get won't have a lot of value. If everyone kept 9-10 players, the 1st round pick would have about as much value as a 10th round selection in a regular redraft league. So we should be keeping players pretty liberally. But the first few picks in the round will be important, since the best rookies will be available then. Schaub, Moreno, Andre, Welker, Benson are obviously worth more than a 9-10th round selection, so we're keeping them. Secondly, who is your tight end? If you have any TE with an ADP higher than 100, I'd probably keep him as well. So if you keep those 5 players plus your TE, that'd be 6 keepers. The rookie draft class this year isn't super great, but being able to pick guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Cam Newton, and Daniel Thomas is likely way more important than keeping some bad veteran player. So I'd keep those 6, and if that's enough to get you picks at the top of the draft, then I'd lean that way.

So if these conclusions are so obvious, why don't more people do it? WR's historically make up about 4 of the players in the top 12, but only 2.2 WR's on average have been drafted in the top 12 per year. Yeah, this isn't meant to like show you some glorious new truth, but get people back to fundamentals.

The back end of your draft is really pretty bad. You're doing just fine in the early rounds, but your bench is filled with low upside replacement level talent. Serious error there. McNabb, Brown, Edwards, Brandon Jackson is really probably the worst bench I've seen coming out of a draft. Do some research on late round sleepers. Also, you picked the first tight end in the 2nd tier of TE's (Owen Daniels). This usually isn't good, but I don't know what was on the board so that pick may have been fine.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. But once you start taking the whole *exact* picture into account, two things happen: 1) Things get complicated really fast. I can sort these by average ppg rather than by total points, however, do you include games like Vick's first game where he wasn't the starter in his average? Maybe we should just take the total number of points in games that you would likely start that player? As you can see, it gets complicated really fast. Just like figuring out the exact level of replacement, figuring out a player's exact fantasy value isn't super simple. What's better, a guy who played 8 games and was 12 points above replacement on average, or a guy who played 15 games, and is 8 points above replacement? 2) Taking all those things into account doesn't change what we learn from an exercise like this. The list is still going to be mostly WR's, with QB's and especially TE's lower & less frequent on the list. The point is to learn what positions to put emphasis on in your drafts, and which positions to neglect. This teaches us that we should probably be one of the last teams to draft a quarterback, and that receivers are being neglected in the first round. We don't need more exact numbers in order to figure that out, and more exact numbers don't teach us much else.

He averaged 4.1 ypc last year, required 334 carries to return value, and is now 29 which is about the age where RB's start dying. There's risk here, when it comes to 1st & 2nd round picks, I run at the first sight of risk.

Not to people who have no clue what they're talking about, but act the complete opposite.

I wouldn't keep Steven Jackson if you paid me. Draft pick calculators are only as good as the math behind them, but I'd guess that they're pretty accurate at projecting the value of a draft pick.

Vick & Stevie Johnson. Its not close.

Draft RB's who catch the ball and draft a QB as late as you possibly can. Congrats, you now know how to win your PPR league. Also, I'd refrain from keeping SJax if I could. The guy is getting really old, and carries a ton of risk with him. I realize you don't have anyone to keep that's any better. But if you can only keep one, and get an extra draft pick, I'd do that.

You can lose your league in the first two rounds though! While there are a lot of teams with guys like Hillis, Steve Johnson, Vick, Foster, there are almost no teams here listed with Randy Moss, Shonn Greene, or other first round busts. It also makes it obvious why drafting guys like Jerricho Cotchery is retarded in the later rounds. After about round 9, its all about upside. Early rounds: draft security Late rounds: draft upside Win.

Addai was hurt in week 6. James didn't get a single red zone carry when Addai was healthy. In fact, Javarris James was *DEACTIVATED* when Addai was healthy. He wasn't even on the game day roster. Claiming James was a goal line vulture to Addai is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. I wish I was an admin so I could ban that kind of ridiculous thinking. And if you want to talk about fumbles, Addai's fumble rate is one of the lowest in the NFL. But I've already ripped you up enough over the vulture thing, so I'll let you look that up.

Yeah, I took the number of starters in a 12 team league. I suppose true replacement level is a bit below that, but these numbers aren't *that* sensitive if you make the player pool deeper. Player performance in the NFL is exponential. There are a few big outliers, and then players approach the average pretty quickly. So in a 12 team league, I used the 12th best QB (who happened to be Matt Cassel). Replacement level is kinda a nebulous concept, but the key is that you're not comparing how many total points a player is scoring, but how many points he's scoring relative to other players at his position.

Well played sir. Only thing I would do differently is maybe pick a WR first, rather than Mendenhall. But your team's structure is pretty good.

Actually, its the exact opposite. The reason they're valuable is BECAUSE there is a 2 point difference between TD's scored rushing vs. passing. 1st pick QB is usually a really bad idea. Evidence here.

This is the most ridiculous crap I've ever seen in fantasy. As soon as a back is over 220, people think he's automatically going to steal goal line carries. When has Addai ever been pulled out on the goal line?

When Addai gets hurt, Carter will have value. Until then, leave him on the waiver wire.

Yeah, I did that last year just for my own information, and the trends are the same. Every year, people over value QB's, taking them in the first & second round. WR continues to be one of the most under-valued positions, since pretty consistently the top 12 players has about 4 WR's in it. But the first round of most drafts usually only has 1-2 WR's taken. Now what's really informative is to do this if you play in a league with a different scoring system (like PPR) or if you play in a league that's a lot deeper or more shallow. It lets you know how you should value each position.

ESPN Posted an Info Graphic a while back on the players that were most on winning fantasy teams. It was all players that you acquired for very little, but put out top 10 numbers. Foster, Vick, Hillis, Lloyd, ect. They also had a list of players that caused teams to lose. It was Randy Moss, Shonn Greene, and other early round busts. Its all about getting players that put up big numbers for very little, and not having your guys who you spent big picks on bust. Fantasy football isn't complicated,.

Slam dunk trade. DJax is way over-valued in PPR leagues, since he catches like 60 balls a year. Plus, you're crazy deep at WR.

I'm throwing Rodgers back. In a 10 team league, your scoring settings would have to be really QB friendly in order to keep Rodgers. In fact, keeping Ryan for a 5th round pick doesn't sound all that great either. I might throw back him as well, and get the draft pick back.