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Decline. Deals where you're not getting the best player are typically not great deals.

I am on the bandwagon. Problem is there are lots of TE's in that ADP range with upside.

What does that have to do with anything? If it were my team, I'd be drafting White.

Julio Jones - ADP = 72.4. His ADP is in the 6th round. Kenny Britt's ADP is 71. Julio will be on none of my teams this year. The hype has gotten way out of hand. Mike Sims-Walker just saw his ADP dip back down into the 100's, so yeah, he should probably be on this list. Lee Evans - We've pretty much seen what he can do. WR's on new teams typically don't perform well. But I suppose there is some upside here. Nelson's opportunity is a serious problem. He's still competing with Jones/Driver/Finley/Jennings for targets. His superbowl performance is artificially inflating his price tag. The Packers aren't going to go into every game with a "Pick on William Gay" game plan.

When I'm drafting, I like to have a couple of lists that help make my picks automatic. When I make my lists out, I do it here in the forum so that maybe someone can benefit from my thought process. My defensive quick list can be found here. The early rounds of the draft are easy, its the late rounds that separate the good & bad teams. If you drafted Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden, or Mike Williams last year, you were probably fist-pumpin' all the way to the bank. So today I'm making out my list of WR's to target in rounds 10+. Now we're looking for players with upside here, and that usually means that we're looking for 2nd/3rd year WR's who have the opportunity to get the number of targets needed to get into the top 15 WR's. So a replacement level talent like Steve Breaston will not be on this list, since they do not help us win our league. Last year Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and Mike Williams were the late round/undrafted WR's who broke into the top 15. They all have this in common: there was not a primary target in the passing game. Brandon Lloyd emerged to take over Brandon Marshall's targets when he left for Miami. Stevie Johnson became Ryan Fitzpatrick's primary option, and Mike Williams was on the catching end of most of Josh Freeman's passes. Opportunity trumps talent here kids. So what we're looking for are teams that do not have a primary target in the passing game. We're also looking for a WR that is on top of the depth chart, in the starting lineup. Youth is also key, as the number of breakout WR's over the past few years are rarely in the league longer than 4 years. Cincinatti Bengals - T.O. left 9.9 targets/game, Ochocinco left 9. Tons of targets here to grab. Dalton is a checkdown artist though, so that caps the upside of the WR's here. Top of the depth chart: Jerome Simpson, AJ Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham. Oakland Raiders - Zach Miller left 6.2 tar/g when he went to the 'Hawks. Campbell can make 1 guy fantasy relevant. TotDC: Jacoby Ford, Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Kevin Boss. Relevant Names: Denarius Moore, Chaz Schilens. St. Louis Rams - Mark Clayton had 10 targets per game in his 4 full games, and the Rams were passing 37 times per game *last year*. Bradford can maybe make 2 targets fantasy relevant (Amendola + ?). TotDC: Brandon Gibson, Danario Alexander, Danny Amendola, Michael Hoomanawanui. Relevant names: Mike Sims-Walker, Donnie Avery, Austin Pettis, Greg Salas, Lance Kendricks Jacksonville Jaguars - Mike Sims-Walker left 5.7 targets per game when he went to the Rams. MSW was good in 2009, and Garrard made Lewis fantasy relevant this year. Room here for a breakout WR. TotDC: Mike Thomas, Jason Hill, Marcedes Lewis. Relevant Names: Cecil Shorts New Orleans Saints - Colston is coming off a fifth knee surgery, and Reggie Bush got 5.2 tar/g. Don't automatically assume Darren Sproles will get the looks Bush left behind. When Bush was out last year, Lance Moore was the primary benefactor. TotDC: Colston, Henderson, Moore, Graham. Relevant Names: Meachem, Arrington So with that list in mind, lets create a list of breakout WR candidates. I've ranked them, but that ranking doesn't really mean much right now. Depth charts & injuries will certainly change things by week 1, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. 1. Jacoby Ford, ADP = 109.2 - He's in the starting lineup, and I'm not a Heyward-Bey believer. Kevin Boss is who we thought he is (a replacement level tight end). Given his performance last year as a rookie, I'd expect for him to become Jason Campbell's primary target. 2. Robert Meachem, ADP = 130.2 - The Saints are usually 2nd in the league in pass attempts per game. Moore probably has a higher floor, but Meachem has the highest ceiling. And ceiling is what we're after in round 11. 3. Lance Moore, ADP = 131.0 - Reggie Bush is gone, and Moore got paid. He was the #13 fantasy WR in 2008 (albeit because of an unsustainable TD/catch rate). WR #15-20 is probably his ceiling, but at pick 131, I'll take that. 4. Danario Alexander, ADP = 156.4 - Crazy risky given his knees (go google pictures of his legs, seriously). But if his legs hold up, has the most upside of any WR on the Rams. 5. Greg Little, ADP = 144.5 - Former college running back is already in the starting line up, and he fits Pat Schurmur's check-down, conservative offense. Sure, he's a rookie but the upside is there. 6. Andre Roberts 7. Jordan Shipley 8. Arrelious Benn 9. Jerome Simpson 10. Emmanuel Sanders

I'll agree with this (we both read Rotoworld news I see...). But I don't think Williams being "pro ready" was as important as the talent vacuum he was in last year. Its a long preseason, I'll move him down if he doesn't turn the light on. Course, McCoy spread the ball around in his debut. Bradford did the same with the Rams, spreading the ball around to quite a few targets. I'm not sure if this is Schurmur's offense, or just the fact that there isn't a true standout receiver on the team. McCoy's targets in the preseason thus far: Little - 2 (3 from Seneca Wallace) Cribbs - 2 Watson - 2 Moore - 2 Hillis - 1 Robiskie - 1 Problem with DHB is that we've seen what he has to offer. Typically, when a WR gets *that much* playing time, you can tell if they're going to break out or not. And the resounding opinion is "NO" on DHB.

This is a good thing. Let your opponents do that. TE's are the lowest scoring position in the league even in PPR formats. Its not close. Starting a TE in your RB/WR/TE flex position is burning money. I'm also a Jared Cook fan, so at least you evened things out by drafting a second TE with upside.

Last year the #3 RB in PPR formats was LeSean McCoy. Adrian Peterson was #6. In standard scoring, that flips to Peterson #3, McCoy #6. Last year, in the last 8 games, Felix caught an average of 3 passes per game. That's 45 points over a 15 game slate. Over that same span, Blount caught *one* pass TOTAL. If you think he's going to rush for 450 extra yards, or score an extra 7.5 touchdowns, that's fine. Sure it doesn't "mean he'll score less". But the fact that he catches pretty much nothing CERTAINLY affects where you RANK him. Starting off with a 50 point hole to dig out of certainly doesn't help Blount's chances. And btw, not that past performance is an indicator of future results. But over the last 8 games of the fantasy season last year, Felix outscored Blount by 2.5 points per game in PPR formats. So I don't care if you are a Cowboys fan or not. You obviously don't understand the scoring system.

You did read the "PPR" scoring settings right? Blount had like what, 6 receptions last year? Ryan Grant doesn't catch much either...

Your TE situation looks terrible (Tony Gonzales is *done*). Other than that, this post is just bragging. Do you play with 4 year olds?

Btw, its probably a good time to make a pre-season trade. Find a QB you like (Roethlisberger) who is undervalued, and swap some of your WR & RB depth for an upgrade at QB.

Hillis, Jones, Bradshaw, Blount, Grant Like that.

Wow, that scoring change makes a HUGE difference! You say 5 QB's went in the first 15 picks like that's too many. In reality, its probably too few, as I'd expect 7ish (Vick through Romo). Josh Freeman didn't throw for 300 yards last year.... EVER. Compare that to say, Tony Romo who did it twice in the 6 full games he played. Given this rule change, you definitely need a better QB situation. And even though you passed up QB's, you still left yourself weak at TE. Also, I don't like the Cutler pick either. The Bears had the *fewest* pass attempts in the league last year. Now that may change, but their offensive line still looks pretty terrible in pass protection. As a guy you drafted as a starter, that's kinda rough. And Breaston shouldn't be a throw-away pick. Late round fliers are important, and wasting them on a guy like Breaston is really bad. I'd rather have Jacoby Ford, Danario Alexander, Greg Little, or Robert Meachem, since all of them have a ton more upside. So unless your league is a PPR league, I'm really not a fan of how you structured your team. You went strong at WR and sorta strong at RB, but left yourself weak at QB. In a league where like you say, you live & die by QB play, you probably should have obtained one of the top 7 starters.

For IDP people, Jason Pierre-Paul? (3 first names! How can you resist?!)

In the last 3 years, Roddy White has been the #4, #7, and #6 ranked WR. In that time span, Michael Jenkins averaged 47 catches per year, or 81 targets per year if you want to be specific. In fact, this past year, Jenkins only played 11 games, but was targeted MORE than he was in previous years. If you think a guy getting 50 catches is going to drain Roddy's value, my answer is, did it drain his value last year? God this is seriously like the dumbest discussion I've ever heard. All you guys are WAY WAY WAY over valuing this rookie WR. In fact, if anything the question we should be asking is this: Tony Gonzales is in major decline, so where will the targets intended for him go?

Yeah, Owen is the one tight end that isn't in the big 5 that could make the jump to the #1 spot. He's in a tier all his own, right after the big 5, but before the "rest of the TE's you draft in round 13" tier.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is also faster than Roddy White you know...

So far its Hightower, but that's prolly because Torain is injured. If you want me to predict how Shanahan will split touches, I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed.

Being drafted as the 8th tight end off the board, I really don't see how this is a value pick. The price already has massive improvement baked in. A value pick should inevitably have a price significantly lower than where you think that player will finish. For example, Felix Jones is like the 24th running back off the board, and if you think he'll finish as the 12th best, you've got 12 spots of value. Graham just doesn't have much room to provide value, given his price.

Average Draft Position, Wes Welker - WR12, Overall 33rd http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php?year=2011&teams=12&pos=wr Round 3, and drafting him as a WR1 doesn't exaclty seem late to me.... Not sure what kind of leagues you're playing in.

I'm gonna toss a vote in here for predicting how good a defense will be is a bunch of hooey. Sure, I'm on board with the idea that the Steelers will be tougher than the Redskins, but that's about as far as I'm willing to take it. Plus, how useful is it to write a giant article predicting that Ryan Fitzpatrick will do well against the Redskins? Isn't that sorta obvious? How does that information really help us? Idk, it just seems like the predictive value of this stuff just isn't super helpful.

TE, QB, WR3 in that order. Those are the positions with the most depth... so yeah. Idk, this doesn't seem like a super interesting discussion? Would you rather have your roster weak in a position where you can find good options on the waiver wire easily or not?

The answer to this question is: Don't draft a back up QB if you own Phillip Rivers.

I prefer to be in two highly competitive leagues where I know the owners. Just more fun that way.

Put me on the Jared Cook bandwagon. Jimmy Graham is WAY WAY overpriced. Greg Olsen is also a great late round target. Kellen Winslow didn't have his annual knee surgery and apparently it shows in practice. He's a good bounce back candidate. Jermaine Gresham could easily be Dalton's primary target. Ben Watson & Kevin Boss are the sort of replacement level players you intentionally avoid on draft day, since there's 100 of them on the waiver wire. If we're talking late rounds, we're talking upside baby! If I don't get one of the elite 5 TE's this year, I'm waiting until round 12.