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c9h13no3

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Posts posted by c9h13no3

  1. Posted

    Some decent thoughts and I agree with you with that I'd take draft all of those qbs save Tebow ahead of him today but I fail to see what New England 10 years ago has to do with anything.

    Seattle has had a declining Matt Hasselbeck, and two bums off the street as QB's in the last two years. So I thought it was unfair to just look at how often they threw the ball with those terrible QB options.

     

    Basically, I just wanted to know if Pete Carroll was going to be a coach who was super conservative, trying to run the ball & play defense to win games no matter the talent he had on hand. His history in New England doesn't suggest that.

  2. Posted

    So Matt Flynn is a common name I hear floating around as a QB2 to draft in the late rounds, since he has some upside of the unknown. Here, we'll try to figure out if he's worth drafting.

     

    Now anyone who drafted Matt Stafford last year can attest that pass attempts per game is the most important thing for QB production. Also, rushing yards are good indicators of QB upside, as anyone who's owned Tebow, Vick, or Cam Newton knows. So I'll look to see if we can expect a large number of pass attempts and rushing yards.

     

    Passing Attempts

     

    Pete Carroll is the head coach, and how often he likes to pass in a game will determine how often Matt Flynn chucks the rock. The past 4 years that Pete Carroll has been a head coach in the NFL, here's the statistics his QB's have put up. I chose two years with the Seahawks & two years with the Patriots, since he's

     

    2011, Seattle Seahawks - 31.8 attempts per game (25th), 6.8 yards per attempt (Whitehurst & Jackson)

    2010, Seattle Seahawks - 34.0 attempts per game (14th), 6.5 yards per attempt (Hasselbeck & Whitehurst)

    1999, New England Patriots - 33.8 A/G (15th), 7.4 Y/A (Drew Bledsoe)

    1998, New England Patriots - 34.8 A/G (5th), 7.2 Y/A (Drew Bledsoe & Scott Zolak)

     

    Understandably, when Pete Carroll had Tarvaris Jackson running the offense, it was a very conservative scheme. But the other years in the league when he's had a competent QB, his teams have been willing to throw the ball at least near the league average. So while the pass attempts won't be league leading like Matt Stafford's, there's nothing here to suggest that Pete Carroll prefers to take the air out of the ball like the 2011 49'ers or Broncos.

     

    The offensive coordinator of the Seahawks (Darrell Bevell) was the OC on Brad Childress' staff in Minnesota since 2006. In Brett Favre's 2009 season, he was the offensive coordinator, and the Vikings ranked 10th in attempts per game with 34.8. So with a good QB, a decent projection for the number of passing attempts per game would be around 34, which is average for the NFL.

     

    If Matt Flynn throws something like 7.3 yards per attempt, that will put him at 3970ish yards for the season. Not amazing numbers, but that would put him 11th this season, right behind Cam Newton.

     

    The weapons around Flynn are manageable. Baldwin & Rice are competent WR's, and Forsett & Leon Washington are decent passing down backs. I don't think anyone envisions Seattle becoming an offensive Juggernaut, but the weapons are certainly adequate.

     

     

    Rushing Yards

     

    Matt Flynn is not an elite running QB. Aaron Rodgers regularly tacks on extra rushing yards in Green Bay's system, while Matt Flynn has 17 yards rushing in the 3 meaningful games of football he's played. He runs a 4.8 fourty time (Rodgers runs a 4.7), which is respectable for a QB, but nothing special. He averaged 2.2 yards per rush at LSU during college. So while I wouldn't call him immobile, he's unlikely to put up significant rushing totals.

     

     

     

    Overall Upside

     

    Flynn's ceiling is probably 4400 passing yards, 300 rushing yards. That would put his fantasy totals at around 7th, which is decent, but nothing amazing. And he's more likely to finish as a middle of the road, decent starter. Somewhere around replacement level in 10 team leagues. As the 19th QB off the board, that's not a bad deal. But Josh Freeman, Carson Palmer, Tim Tebow, and Andy Dalton are all coming off the board in that ballpark. And I think all of those QB's have more upside than Flynn.

  5. Posted

    Thomas is good at getting down the field but sucks at short & intermediate routes. Tebow is good at throwing downfield but sucks at short and intermediate routes.

     

    Peyton Manning makes his living with short and intermediate routes.

     

    I submit to you that Thomas may actually be worth less now, certainly less than the #2 WR in fantasy football.

    Yeah, but what's his ADP going to be?

     

    Here's the WR's being drafted immediately before Thomas right now:

     

    23 5.11 Reggie Wayne WR IND

    24 5.11 Dwayne Bowe WR KC

    25 6.01 Stevie Johnson WR BUF

    26 6.09 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI

    27 7.02 Anquan Boldin WR BAL

    28 7.03 Santonio Holmes WR NYJ

    29 7.05 Mario Manningham WR SF

    30 7.11 Antonio Brown WR PIT

    31 8.02 Plaxico Burress WR NYJ

    32 8.03 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN

     

    I'd rather have Thomas over Plaxico, Manningham, Boldin, Holmes, and Wayne. To me he should probably be drafted in the WR24-26 range. I'd also rather have Eric Decker over those guys as well. I'm not sure what the "right price" is on the Broncos WR's, but its certainly too low right now.

  8. Posted

    If you missed the thread on RB's, check here.

     

    Touchdowns are hard to predict, and they vary a lot from year to year. So anytime a WR scores a large amount of touchdowns, we need to ask ourselves if there's a reason for that. Calvin Johnson is a great red zone target, is a great leaper, and catches lots of bombs that he takes to the house. So his one touchdown per every 7.5 catches is a number he's been able to keep going through his whole career. However, typically when players have a season where they catch a TD pass every 7-8 catches, they fail to repeat that the next year. Take Tampa's Mike Williams for example. In 2010, he caught a TD pass every 5.8 receptions, a crazy high rate. As expected, his numbers came back down to earth in 2011, and he only caught 3 touchdown passes all year.

     

    So lets look back at the numbers from 2011, and see if we can't identify some players who we should avoid in drafts, because they scored a lucky amount of touchdowns last year.

     

    Jordy Nelson

     

    2011 Receptions/TD: 4.5

    2011 Fantasy Points per Target: 2.25

     

    Its rare for a WR to be able to put up the kind of numbers Nelson put up with less than 100 targets. Jordy Nelson achieved 216 fantasy points on only 96 total targets. Usually WR's require target totals in the 140's to reach those kinds of numbers. And the way he got there is by catching a ridiculous number of touchdowns. Jordy Nelson is 6'3" so he's not a small WR, and he has a future hall of famer throwing to him, so its possible that these numbers are repeatable. But keeping that kind of pace up is insane. Its slightly slower than the pace Randy Moss had when he caught 23 TD passes with the Patriots in 2007 (4.3 catches per TD). And Randy Moss also had a hall of famer throwing to him, and he'll be in the hall of fame himself. So while Jordy Nelson is a great WR, its very unlikely that he'll be able to maintain the kind of production this coming year.

     

    Nelson is currently being drafted as the 10th WR off the board, which is an insanely high number for a player that's only projected to get 90 targets or so. The only way he's a value at that spot is if he takes Greg Jenning's job as the #1 WR (and then we shouldn't be drafting Jennings that high). The point is, by drafting two Green Bay WR's in the top 10, someone is going to get dissappointed. And its probably going to be the owner who drafts Nelson, expecting another 10+ touchdowns out of him.

     

     

    Wes Welker

     

    2011 Receptions/TD: 13.5

    2011 Yards/Reception: 12.9

     

    2007-2010 Average Receptions/TD: 19.6

    2007-2010 Average Yards/Reception: 10.5

     

    I know you're asking yourself why Welker is up here on the list. He caught a TD pass every ~14 receptions, which is a normal rate for a WR. But Welker isn't a normal WR. He plays in the slot, running underneath routes, and typically isn't a red zone threat. Look at his numbers for the rest of his career in New England. His numbers significantly increased over his career averages in 2011. Welker is 5'9", is 31 years old, and doesn't typically get a lot of red zone looks. Are you willing bet a 2nd round pick next year that he'll be able to repeat those kinds of numbers? Because its more likely that he'll regress back to his career averages. Don't get me wrong, Welker is money in the bank for 100+ receptions and 1100 yards. But that's not a value if you're taking him as the 6th WR off the board.

     

     

    Laurent Robinson

     

    2011 Receptions/TD: 4.9

    2011 Fantasy Points per Target: 1.90

     

    This one is obvious. Robinson got a ton of playing time last year because of dual hamstring injuries to Miles Austin, and Dez Bryant getting banged up with thigh issues. He's not getting that playing time again. But even if he did get plenty of snaps as the Cowboy's 3rd WR, its just super unlikely that he will repeat that kind of production given the limited number of targets he'll be getting. He's currently being taken in the 10th round, which is ridiculous. You can find more upside in round 10, don't waste it on a player buried on the depth chart.

     

     

     

    Players who will likely score more touchdowns in 2012:

     

    Antonio Brown - He scored just 2 TD's last year after catching 69 passes, and finished as the 26th highest scoring WR. He's currently being picked as the 30th WR off the board. Seems like value to me.

     

    Dwayne Bowe - He finished last year as the 17th best WR, after finishing as the 2nd best in 2010. And somehow he's currently mocking as the 21st WR off the board in late round 5. He caught a touchdown every 16.2 receptions last year, but he averages a TD every 10 passes for his career. Yes, he's a steroid using knuckledhead that burned us in 2009. But he's insane value in the 5th round of fantasy drafts. And Tyler Palko won't be making starts for the Chiefs in 2012.

  9. Posted

    Yeah, Marshawn's a fickle guy to project. If I had to guess, I'd say....

     

    15 games, 270 carries, 4.1 ypc, 1107, 8 TD's, 25 receptions, 170 rec yards, 175.7 fantasy points. That would have put him as the 14th best fantasy back last year, which is about right to me.

     

    I also wouldn't rule out Seattle getting another back in free agency or the draft. Forsett is a free agent, Leon Washington is pretty old. Obviously if they add talent to the position, those numbers go down some.

     

    McGahee is super risky, but that just sorta seems obvious to me. He's 32, and Denver has spoken openly about adding another RB. And yeah, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry after averaging around 4.0 for his career. But idk, I don't see people drafting him that high. Berry has him ranked as roughly the 20-24th best RB, which seems about right to me.

  10. Posted

    During this time in the fantasy season, I typically reflect back on the numbers from the past year. The number one thing I look to avoid when drafting is picking a player at the top of the draft that carries a lot of risk. And one of the biggest risks to consider is the risk of regressing, or reverting back to a normal level of performance.

     

    A prime example of this would be Mike Williams from 2010. Williams caught a touchdown every 5.8 catches in 2010, which is a crazy high number. In 2011, he caught a TD every 21.6 catches. Even though he caught 65 passes in 2011, and 64 passes in 2010, his fantasy point totals were vastly different because he (and Josh Freeman) regressed back to statistics that are more typical for the type of players they are.

     

    So with that said, lets try to identify which players are the biggest risk of regressing back to their career averages in 2012. You couldn't pay me to draft any of these players in the first two rounds of a fantasy football draft.

     

    Marshawn Lynch

    2007-2010 YPC: 3.9

    2011 YPC: 4.2

     

    2007-2010 TD's per year: 6.0

    2011 TD's: 13

     

    2007 Fantasy Rank: 12th best RB

    2008 Fantasy Rank: 15th best RB

    2011 Fantasy Rank: 5th best RB

     

    In 2011 Marshawn Lynch set career highs in all the big rushing categories. I have always believed that Lynch was an underrated runner because he played behind bad offensive lines and produced a lot of yards after contact. However, Lynch's price is almost certain to be inflated come draft day. Matthew Berry has Lynch ranked as the #11 player in fantasy, putting him as a first round pick in 12 team leagues. Lynch has never finished higher than the 12th best RB before this year, and he's likely to regress back towards his career averages. There's no way I'd pay what Berry suggests and take Lynch as the 5th RB off the board. To me, a price tag of RB12-15 seems more appropriate, as Lynch will likely give you the numbers he averaged for his first two years in the league, somewhere around a solid RB2.

     

     

    Reggie Bush

    2006-2010 YPC: 4.0

    2011 YPC: 5.0

     

    2006-2010 Games/Year: 12.0

    2011 Games Played: 15

     

    Reggie Bush finished the year as the 12th best fantasy back, but it would be crazy to expect that kind of production from him again in 2012. Not only was Bush significantly better and healthier last year compared to the rest of his career, he also has Daniel Thomas breathing down his neck. Add in a change from run oriented Tony Sparano to Joe Philbin, who was a Packer's coordinator, and Bush carries a ton of risk. I'm not touching Bush until at least 24 other running backs have come off the board.

     

     

    Fred Jackson

    2007-2010 YPC: 4.4

    2011 YPC: 5.5

     

    2007-2010 Yards per Reception: 8.0

    2011 YPR: 11.3

     

    2007-2010 Carries per TD: 64.7

    2011 Carries per TD: 28.3

     

    I love Fred Jackson. The story is awesome, and I think its kinda sad that he was underrated as a runner for so long. However, in 2011 he blew all of his numbers he had previously put up in his career away. That kind of production from a back that old is crazy, which is exactly why you shouldn't expect it to happen again. Furthermore, he put those numbers up over a really small sample size (only 10 games), and while he was injured CJ Spiller emerged as a legit running back. I'm not sure what Fred Jackson's ADP will be, since the public probably won't expect him to put up numbers similar to what he did in 2011. But when you're doing your projections for this coming year, please don't assume he's going to average over 5 yards per carry again.

     

     

    And lastly, one RB I expect to be able to continue his high performance.

     

    Darren Sproles

    2005-2010 Yards per Reception: 9.6

    2011 Yards per Reception: 8.3

     

    2005-2010 Receptions per TD: 13.2

    2011 Receptions per TD: 12.3

     

    Darren Sproles is an interesting case. Many fantasy pundits thought that a running back couldn't maintain the kind of production Sproles was getting since Sproles wasn't touching the ball nearly as often as other RB's. However, Sproles obviously isn't like other RB's, since they use him primarily as a receiver. And the key receiving numbers Sproles put up in 2011 match the numbers he was putting up in San Diego. Its just in New Orleans, he's getting used far more often than he was back in Cali. Darren Sproles will see his 6.9 yards per carry decrease next year, and he'll probably score fewer touchdowns as well. But in PPR formats, he was the #5 RB last year, and I'd bank on him returning RB1 value in that format again. Matthew Berry has Sproles ranked as a 5th round draft pick next year, despite the fact that he'll probably be able to repeat RB2 type production.

     

     

    Thoughts? Comments? Rage? Lemme know, we've got plenty of time to kill until the 2012 season.

  11. Posted

    For the season, I think I like Knox. He's shown he has 1000 yard talent in that scheme. However, the Bears have shown they'll stick with poor WR options long after they've shown to be inferior. But Knox doesn't need a ton of targets to return value, so the opportunity factor isn't quite as important as it would be with say a RB. But its a close choice.

     

    On a side note, I like Brandon Gibson or Early Doucet more than those two.

  12. Posted

    Was just about to say "trade your QB and get an elite RB". Or even a RB with more upside than the collection of has-beens you have.

     

    Also, I ditch Pettigrew for a TE with more upside. Greg Olsen if he's available.

  13. Posted

    A few comments:

     

    1) In a non-PPR league, your flex starter should be a RB most of the time. Trading your WR depth for a 3rd running back would be a huge win if you accomplish it. Since you start 3 RB's each week, they're going to be very valuable, and I doubt you're going to be able to get much of a RB in return for the league's scarcest position.

     

    2) Your two QB's are depth you can't afford to have, given your RB situation. Trade one. Solid back ups are always available on the waiver wire.

     

    3) You have a ton of "replacement level" players on your bench. These players are "just a guy" and there's really no reason for them to be on your roster in week 1, because there's infinite number of them out there on the waiver wire. Mason and Bess should be cut for someone with more upside in week 1. Think Jacoby Ford, Jared Cook, Robert Meachem, Jason Hill type players.

     

    4) Having two WR's on the same team is a small worry. Having only 2 RB's (both of which carry injury risk) on your roster is a BIG worry. Deal with that first.

  14. Posted

    obviously you didnt have Romo on your team last year and if he waits on a QB McCoy might be his starter <_<

    Truth be told, I actually drafted him in a $100 league last year. I didn't draft a backup.

     

    You're trying to be the best of 18 teams. That requires taking chances. Not drafting a back up to your QB (or waiting a long time to take one) is a smart chance worth taking.

  20. Posted

    I guess the question is: How do you guys decide on who to start?

     

    For example... Ray Rice is playing the Steelers D. Would it be stupid of me to bench him?

    Absolutely not. Websites like Yahoo & Rotoworld (who are both very accurate) will release sit/start rankings each week. You can simply use their rankings.

     

    But in a league this small, you'll very often be benching your "studs" because they'll be playing against bad defenses.

  21. Posted

    Our league gives out a point per 10 return yards (and kickoffs). I am not sure if that is credited to the individual player or my special teams. This is on espn fantasy football.

     

    I would appreciate any help with the first week of how to decide on starters.

     

     

    Here is my team (any comments welcomed):

     

    SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS OPPONENET

    QB Matt Ryan, Atl QB @Chi Sun 1:00

    RB Matt Forte, Chi RB Atl Sun 1:00

    RB D McFadden, Oak RB @Den Mon 10:15

    RB/WR Ray Rice, Bal RB Pit Sun 1:00

    WR R Wayne, Ind WR @Hou Sun 1:00

    WR Roddy White, Atl WR @Chi Sun 1:00

    TE A Gates, SD TE Min Sun 4:15

    D/ST Bears D/ST D/ST Atl Sun 1:00

    K S Janikowki, Oak K @Den Mon 10:15

     

    BENCH Wk 1

    PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP

    Kenny Britt, Ten WR @Jac Sun 1:00

    BenGreen-Ellis, NE RB @Mia Mon 7:00

    Tim Hightower, Wsh RB NYG Sun 4:15

    Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR @StL Sun 1:00

    B Marshall, Mia WR NE Mon 7:00

    Ryan Mathews, SD RB Min Sun 4:15

    M Stafford, Det QB @TB Sun 1:00

    In a league this size, where your starting line up is this small, ceiling is the only thing that matters for a player. So I like a lot of your selections, because players like Britt, Hightower, Marshall, and Stafford have a lot of upside. There's a ton of risk with those players as well, but it doesn't really matter since the player pool you're working with is so shallow.

     

    Guys like Green-Ellis are what we call "replacement level". Which means, you can find players with this kind of talent on the waiver wire. Same with Jeremy Maclin and Ryan Mathews to some extent in a league this small.

     

    A few points:

     

    1) You're going to want to start a different defense every week. Never carry two defenses on your roster at the same time. Just find a defense on the waiver wire each week that's playing a bad offense and put them in. My favorite week 1 defense start would be the New York Giants against the Redskins. The Jets face the Texans in week 1, and the Texans traditionally have a very good offense. So yeah, in short, pick up a new defense every week based on who that defense is playing against.

     

    2) Make trades for "studs". And I put studs in quotes because early in the season, players are going to break out and many of the other teams won't believe their breakout is real. Since the risk of a player busting is so low (because you have so many good replacements), be the guy to take a chance on the Peyton Hillis/Darren McFaddens of this year. Trade name brand guys (Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, ect.) for players who have the potential to be in the top 3 at their position.

     

    3) I'd add another tight end to your team. Antonio Gates has injury prone feet. Add a guy like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski to your team, since these players have the potential to be a top 3 TE in the event that Antonio Gates has a recurrence of his foot problems. To add a TE, I'd cut Green-Ellis. Or if you just love the Patriots & you can't bring yourself to cut BJGE, cut Jeremy Maclin.

  22. Posted

    Greetings,

     

    Looking for 1-2 owners to fill out a 12 team PPR league on ESPN. This is the league's 3rd year running, and we've had a solid competitive league each year. The league can be seen here.

     

    Key Information:

    Snake Draft: September 5th, 10PM Eastern Time

     

    Scoring Settings can be found here.

     

    League Communication: Typically you can communicate with other owners via the forum that most of us post at (www.uncontestedpoker.com). However, if you don't join that forum, you can get in touch with all of us via email, or Google Chat.

     

    Payouts:

    Playoffs - $170/$100/$70

    Regular Season - $130/$80/$50

     

    Also, if you play poker, that's a plus. This league was founded by a group of semi-professional poker players, and we always enjoy talking with other people who play the game.

  25. Posted

    you will have at least 4 teams whose back up isn't even a starter

    Since you only start 1 QB each week, why do you need a back up QB? For one bye week?

     

    I'd probably just target the "good value" QB's. Roethlisberger, Stafford, Bradford, ect. Pair them with a low end QB2 like a Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, Cam Newton, John Beck, and you'll be just fine.

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