Pavlov

After my last post, I spent around 15 minutes trying to figure out how the Pats could sign Williams. The Pats have a decent amount of cap space and should have enough money to pursue at least one impact player after Welker should they choose to, but it's tricky and would probably require Williams to sign a back-loaded contract like he did in Texas. As a Pats fan, I'd rather see them make a run at Carlos Rogers (who would cost about $7 million/season) and not trade out of their draft spot and actually pick a 5-technique rusher like I've been telling them to do for years. Years!

The Texans have about $6.8 million in space and have Foster and Williams to resign--obviously, both can't happen. Even with really aggressive restructuring (ala the Steelers), there isn't going to be enough room to keep both those guys. As for Manning, it would not be tough for a post-Schaub/post-Williams Texans' cap (getting rid of both takes the 6.8 figure to around $27 million) to accommodate Manning at all, given the expectations of what his new contract will look like. The play for the Texans in this scenario is to let Williams walk and resign the various UFAs they have on the O-Line (or sign equivalent talent in free agency). I'm not totally convinced this is a great idea, but it's certainly economically feasible. The good news is that the Texans don't have a lot of weaknesses. The bad news is that they have a decent amount of dead money on the books, they have a lot of contracts coming up in 2013 that they need to keep in mind, and they have essentially zero wiggle room. Best case scenario: Williams walks, Johnson and Schaub restructure, resign Myers (assuming there isn't some health issue--30-year old centers aren't long term deal candidates), lock up Foster, franchise Dreessen. You don't want to franchise Foster because the RB number is much higher than the TE number and because you're right back in this situation in 2013 when a bunch of rookie contracts for good players expire.

1. 14 teams 2. Auction, $100 to spend on free agents. 3. None 4. Redraft 5. 2 WR, 1 Flex 6. 6 7. Top 2 get a bye in week 14 Scoring is also a little different. Teams get a point for a win and a point for being in the top 50% of the league in terms of total points scored, avoiding the "I had a terrible matchup!" plague.

How do people look at Flynn and not see the second coming of Kolb? He's a QB who has a remarkably small body of work who is being sold high. There's a chance that Flynn is a top-32 QB and should be a starter on some team, but there's absolutely no evidence that he's franchise level. Assuming he gets tagged, you're paying him at franchise QB-level. That's nuts.

Seattle's best choice for QB (and I'll cede that TJ was okay by the end of the season) might be to consider going after whoever gets cut to make room for Manning. Obviously, there are some outlandish scenarios (Manning goes to Cleveland) in which this isn't true, but there's no way Manning goes to Cleveland.

The reason Houston gets mentioned a lot is because Schaub is entering the last year of the contract and Houston needs to determine if they want to extend a good, but often injured, QB long-term. The thinking is that they could lock up Manning for 2-3 years at a lower rate than Schaub and see what they could do with that window of opportunity.

That was so so so so much better than last year (Black Eyed Peas).

Presumably we all took the Hynoski prop--now the Giants have done all I need them to do. Go Pats!

Yes.

That's correct. He can pursue (or be pursued) by any team as soon as he's released, even before the start of the league year. Various sources have already cited the Titans as a possibility.

It's not like the AFC East was stacked this year. The Jets imploded over chemistry issues, the Bills were who we thought they were, and the Fins just aren't that good (although get credit for playing hard in the second half).

I would be shocked if Manning agreed to push back the $28 million. First, if someone owes me $28 million on Tuesday, you better believe I'm getting paid on Tuesday. Second, Manning is too smart to pass on the money and toss his fate other teams' doctors by choice. Finally, if/when Manning plays for another team, it's going to be a situation that he exactingly sets up--he's not going to let Irsay gut the team right before he arrives.

Right--the compensatory pick comes into play if a player leaves as a free agent. Manning would be on the roster and get cut. He *becomes* a free agent under this scenario, but the Colts wouldn't actually get the pick unless they let his contract expire, which can't happen this year. But, long story short, the only thing that makes any sense for the Colts from a non-sentimental standpoint is cutting Manning.

Since you're so good at math (and grammars), you surely know that .4492 = .4492. Both of those happen to be the Pats and 49ers strength of schedule.

Here are the various scenarios: 1. Cut Manning now, owe him nothing and get nothing for him. 2. Decide to trade Manning. This can't happen until *after* he is payed his $28 million roster bonus, which comes due before the league allows trades. That money comes from the Colts and counts towards the cap (it's split over 2 years, but it still counts). 3. Decide to keep Manning. Pay him his $28 million bonus and $10 million base. Now draft Luck and pay him ~$24 million/4 years. The Colts have a ton of other free agents they need to address as well (Saturday, Wayne just to name 2). Option 2 is clearly a terrible idea and option 3 basically destroys your ability to build a team for the next decade.

As predicted, your reality and real reality don't align. Montana's record without Rice: .7037 Brady's record without Moss: .7545 EDIT: It's also worth noting that Montana's 4 SB rings required him to win a total of 1 road playoff game. Like the Pats, the 49ers were often the top seed, so it's a pretty absurd metric to use.

While I disagree with the premise and understand that you've just been trolling here for a few days, post-"What others call SpyGate," you're defining average as setting the single-season TD record.

How many HoF players were on the 2001 Pats? I'm pretty sure Ronnie Lott made it into the HoF on the first try.

Yes, because Fitz isn't authorized to make any sort of offer to Manning (who is still under contract in any event) and Manning is smart enough to know that any deal is going to be made with lawyers in the room. Players have dinner with one another sometimes--nothing nefarious about that. All that said, if Manning plays next year, my money is on Arizona. This is a good "our WR is a nice guy and super talented" move.

If Fitz somehow makes personnel decisions, then it could be.

Every Bills fan I know would agree with this. Flutie was the ultimate "maximize what you have" guy for that team; Johnson was the "minimize what you have" guy. Yet Johnson's pedigree somehow made him better, results be damned.

The problem is that they can't trade him before the deadline. They owe him the money before the beginning of the league year, and trades can't take place before the league year begins. So they'd end up taking a significant cap hit for a player not on their roster, which isn't going to happen.

Whoops--was looking at an old site for that one. My mistake.

There's really no way he isn't 1st ballot. Every eligible RB who is 1 place *behind* LT in total yards (Dickerson), total TD (Allen), YPA (Thurman Thomas), all made the HoF. Note that Curtis Martin isn't in the HoF yet largely because he's ineligible. Tomlinson also benefits from fairly weak competition in the position, unlike Moss vs. TO, for example. He'll be going against people like Bettis, Fred Taylor, and Edge. There's no debate that LT was better than all those guys.

Pats. During the Grogan/Eason flip flop days, I was a die-hard Grogan fan, but I can't claim Eason was the worst. You could probably pick any QB from the 1992 season at random, but I'll go with Jeff Carlson.