Pavlov

Any trade in which you're selling Leshoure is probably a good one at this point, his stock will never be higher.

I really hope you went with Witten--monster ppr game.

Thanks for seeing mine. I'd drop Young. There's a good case to be made for dropping Jones instead--Jones is a known quantity (of mediocrity) and Young finds himself in a good spot suddenly in Detroit, so who knows what his upside might be. The problem with that theory is that, in practice, Young will never crack your WR starting lineup barring catastrophic injuries. Even if it's just a small window starting, Jones might give you a week or two of decent production.

Thanks for seeing mine. A good starting place for a PPR tie-breaker is % of targets. You want a certain amount of volume of the offense going through your guy. Witten: 21.1% Maclin: 16.2% Bowe: 31.1% Jones: 18.3% Bowe is super-high (3rd in the league), but you have to trust Quinn as a QB to be able to both target Bowe and deliver the ball. I'm not sure I'm there. I like Witten. He gets a decent volume of passes thrown his way. His overall numbers are lowered because of early-season injuries. He's not an elite TE in 2012, but he's serviceable.

Thanks for seeing mine. In terms of DVOA, the gap between Ryan and Stafford is really small (Ryan is ranked 8th, Stafford 10th). This doesn't translate directly to ff points, but it's a decent indicator of whether or not a QB's play is off when you're trying to project future performance. Megatron won't suddenly revert back to last year's model, but he'll probably get better as the season goes on, which will help Stafford's numbers. I would not trade for Johnson right now. He's having a terrible (by his standards) year on an excellent team--moving Johnson right now means hoping to find a sucker who values name recognition over performance. Don't be that sucker.

I need to pick 3 for a PPR league. Forte (vs. Car) Ridley (vs. StL, in London) Morris (@ Pit--I finally picked the right Shanahan RB on draft day? Impossible!) SJax (vs. NE, in London) Right now I'm leaning towards sitting SJax. He has been underperforming lately, I hate those London games and he has the older legs of the 2 RBs I have across the pond, and there a higher chance that the Rams will be playing from behind. Leave a link to yours.

Thanks for the feedback. My first move would be to trade White, maybe packaging him with Morris (rookie RBs always seem to break down at the end of the season). Wait for him to have a decent week and see if you can strike while the iron's hot. In terms of this week, there's no way I sit McGahee vs. the Saints run d. He's a lock for your flex spot.

Thanks for seeing mine. It boils down to your matchup. If you're comfortable with the rest of your team vs. your opponent, then I play it safe(ish) and go with Givens. The NE secondary is terrible and the Rams will throw it enough that he'll reliably get a fair number of balls thrown his way. If, on the other hand, you need a few people to exceed their projections to win, I go with Britt. It's a cross-you-fingers kind of move and not one I'd describe as high percentage, but Britt's ceiling is highest.

Assuming Baron Batch comes back healthy, I think he has a shot at cutting into Redman's touches. I don't expect Redman to be the undisputed #1 back all season.

Best Day 1: Steelers (Like the Pouncey pick, it's exactly what they need and very boring) Eagles (Fits a big need, they didn't panic and trade up too high to take him) Patriots (Trade up twice? And actually pick a pass rusher? I must be dreaming) Worst Day 1: Chiefs (Poe's lack of production make me nervous he's a workout wonder) Seattle (even if you're not worried about his off-field issues, you could trade back and still get him) Bears (I like the player, but ######, they need to draft O-line and they had a tackle available)

I largely agree, although the idea of using Ninkovich as a 3rd down Sam is fine by me. He had a good year last year, but I don't think anyone thinks Ninkovich's ceiling is nearly as high as Hightower's. Now to add some depth to the secondary. I'm not really thrilled about the remaining CBs or safeties, but we'll see.

I work with a Bills fan who has bought into each of those rumors at some point over the last few weeks, it's been amusing. Predicting what the Pats will do is always a fool's errand, but right now I'm hoping they draft a pass rusher (maybe McClellin) and a DB. What I actually think will happen is I'll stay up to watch pick 31 only to learn it's been traded.

Obviously, it's impossible to say anything bad about Graham as a player, but I would wait on Brees' contract situation to get cleared up (I expect it will, but still...) before ranking him #1.

Weslye Saunders will have some value as a ww pickup in week 5 in deeper leagues. Assuming he gets his head on straight, he's a beast and the new OC likes using TEs in the red zone.

Way too low on Wells (24th overall? That's nuts). More significantly, you're using inconsistent logic. The knock on Wells This is cherry-picking stats. What matters in FF is points, and Wells was one of the more consistent point generators for the first half of the season, before he got hurt and faced SF twice (no one starts their RBs vs SF). CJ has 12 games under 67 yards and manages to be 5th overall on apparently nothing more than professional pride. Does CJ have more talent than Wells? Sure, absolutely. Has anyone heard about how CJ realized his mistake and has fully committed himself to off-season conditioning? Shonn Greene, whose numbers weren't as good and now plays with Red Zone Jesus, ends up ranked ahead of Wells. Wells deserves a spot in the top 15, even with his injury risk.

Dude, at this point the correct answer is clearly Brett Keisel and anyone.

Thank God no one named Otto Graham.

Chris Johnson at 5 seems really really high. I understand the pick was made on talent, but effort has to be taken into account at some point. Charles at 10 might be a bit low. He's amazing and he's had more time to heal than other backs who got hurt later on in the season. Fred Jackson is over 30 and coming off a broken leg--those aren't serious red flags? Willie Parker post-leg injury was never the same guy; I expect to see the same thing with DJax.

My guess is Denver wins the division and ends up a 3-4 seed, and then loses a home playoff game to a wildcard team, especially if they have to play either the Steelers or the Ravens. Manning will have a good (but not great, by his standards) year. New team, new coach, and new system will all be more significant factors than his neck.

I hate to say it, because I'm a Pats fan, but if they stay healthy, the Texans look really good.

There's no way this happens, but out of curiosity I took a look at the draft pick value chart. To essentially break even (the Niners end up overpaying by ~400 points for you draft geeks), they would have to offer the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks of the 2012 draft as well as their 1st round picks in 2013, '14, '15, and '16. This is slightly overpaying for the pick. In reality, it's not the pick, it's Andrew Luck. And the Colts are going to make someone significantly overpay for Andrew Luck, since cutting Manning and not drafting a QB is essentially blowing up your franchise and fanbase for the foreseeable future.

The Niners are looking at a tight cap over the next 2-4 years. Lots of good players on the current roster will want/need to be paid. Not entirely unmanageable, but nothing to look forward to. The idea of going into that sort of financial scenario with no draft picks is insane.

A separate thread got me thinking about the requirements to get in the HoF and how few Patriots would make it, despite the fact that a bunch of them have 3 rings. The obvious: Tom Brady Randy Moss ...and then there's a steep drop off. The next name that comes to mind is Seymour (tons of Pro Bowls and All-Pro teams, although the modern Pro Bowl is diluted by fan voting). He plays a position that's pretty stat dependent and had timely sacks, but never was a sack machine. Everyone mentions Vinatieri, but a) he's a kicker. And b ) Gary Anderson is lightyears ahead of him in points scored and isn't even on the ballot yet. My best guess is Matt Light will get in after multiple ballots. The Pats line has been really really good with him as an anchor.

How do Ravens fans feel about Ngata's chances? He's sort of in that Hampton/Wilfork category for me. Amazing player, bad position.

Not sure if Warner also qualifies for twilight since he did pretty well out there, but I think he gets in. Welker does not, barring ripping off a ton of excellent seasons over the next 4-5 years, which probably won't happen because he'll get older and Brady will retire at some point.