prancers

That's 6. To me those 6 plus FJax and DMC are the main guys in the conversation. I also think that Trent Richardson, if he lands in a good spot, could be in the mix immediately. He catches the ball well and could be a 300 touch guy immediately. Somewhere like Cincy or Cleveland would be potentially realistic and decent landing spots.

I hadn't checked this board in a while and didn't know this blog existed. Interesting and I'll try to keep up with it. I can tell we are going in pretty different directions strategy-wise especially as far as draft picks are concerned. As for the RB-heavy strategy, I think it definitely has some merit. I haven't been playing dynasty long at all, but I've made it a priority to cast a wide net as far as RBs are concerned. This isn't exactly the same as going 2 WR (which seems extreme), but I try to get a sure thing at QB and I prioritize getting a top TE so as to allow myself maximum roster space at RB (and to a lesser extent WR) by only rostering 2 QBs and TEs. This allows me to carry a ton of RBs. For example, in the Fat Bastards dynasty league that mfm runs, RBs take up 11 of my 25 roster spots (44% of roster) right not even though they're only 2/10ths (20%) of my starting roster each week. The amount of injuries, turnover amongst the top scorers each year, etc. means you really need to have a ton of them to improve your odds of having 2 good ones come fantasy playoff time.

I think in the short term, he's very close to the 2 guys you mentioned. The Bengals not only lost Jerome Simpson due to stupidity but also lost Jordan Shipley to a torn ACL last week. So just by process of elimination he'll get targets as he went from #4WR to #2WR. I'd expect AJ Green to lead the team in targets, then Gresham at TE, then Caldwell as the 3rd option and the rookie Ryan Whalen as the 4th option. A lot of it comes down to how you feel about Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense. How big is the passing pie? If you look at the 325 yards Dalton put up vs. Denver as a sign he is going to regularly put up 225+, then Caldwell is definitely a viable WR3 because there just isn't a reasonable way to split up that pie without Caldwell getting a decent sized portion of it, particularly in PPR. My personal opinion is that you'll see teams copy the Broncos strategy of putting 8 men in the box to take away Benson and daring Dalton to beat them. He's still hit or miss on the deep throws but looks good on the shorter stuff which is Caldwell's strength so I think he's definitely going to get his catches in PPR. I'd project something like 6 or 7 catches, 50-60 yards, 0.2 TDs this Sunday vs. San Fran.

How were VJax's #s last season? Seems to me like he's had 2 good games total combining this season and last and has always been a hit or miss guy. He's had as many terrible weeks as Tampa Mike has in 1/3rd the games played. Also, Mike Williams had a TD disallowed last week due to an illegal motion penalty. It would have been his 13th TD in 18 career games. Maybe the guy is just good at catching TDs? That's certainly what it looks like to me when I watch him play... When you start taking out the good games and nit-picking over consistency, almost every player you look at it doesn't look so good. Williams has scored a TD in 11 of the 18 games he has played in for his career (Should have been 12/18 but for the penalty). Not sure where you're seeing so many 40/0 TD games....

I don't play any IDP, so I can't help you there...but I'm in one league that has return yards so I've tried to pay a little attention. As far as offensive guys who are a bit under the radar, I like Antonio Brown of the Steelers as a nice sleeper who should be the #2 or 3 WR and get a lot of special teams touches. Some rookies, Randall Cobb, Titus Young and Denarius Moore are possibilities. Moore just on PR, not KR, but he'll be #2 or 3 WR and could be very good in that. I don't expect a ton out of Cobb on offense, but he'll be on both PR/KR I think so maybe he'll do enough on offense to make an impact. Titus Young in Det may have a clearer path to #3 WR along with PR/KR Bigger names, obviously Harvin, though who knows how long he'll last on KR/PR. Desean Jackson on PR. Other maybes: For the Bengals, Bernard Scott might be on KR. Is Steve Breaston going to return punts in KC? Dez Bryant did PR last year in Dallas, not sure if he'll do it again. Maybe Johnny Know or Devin Hester?

You'll be kicking yourself if you don't draft Green if he's out there in the 7th round or so. He's really, really good. Would he be better with a better QB? Yep. If Dalton wouldn't have missed him wide open twice, he'd have scored 3 TDs and had 150 yards in the first half tonight. Even with 2 mistakes that limited his impact, he had 45 receiving, 11 rushing and a TD. As for Benson, depends on if its PPR or not. In PPR, he's probably going to finish as RB25ish b/c he won't do much in the passing game, so I'd pass unless he really falls. But in standard, he could be a nice value in round 6 or 7. Who cares if he only gets 3.7 yards per carry if he gets over 300 rushes (over 1000 yards) and 8-10 TDs?

That's what I've seen from him also and I've watched every snap he's played this preseason. He's missed a few throws, but not as many as his numbers would suggest. Tonight was the first game he had Steve Smith. He's had some nice connections with both Shockey and Olsen. Some of those have been deep down the field. He hasn't had a ton of luck with his WRs, but they aren't very good. He's also had to throw the ball away a lot due to his guards getting pushed straight back into him. I've been decently impressed, at least in terms of fantasy potential. I think he's going to rush for 800 yards and 8 TDs (50 yards per game, .5 TDs). Unlike Vick, he has the size to run a bit and not get too dinged up. If he can pass for 2400 yards and 16 TDs (150 and 1 TD per game), he could be a startable QB depending on your league's rules. If your league is 1 point per 25 yards passing and 4 pt. for passing TDs, the numbers I posted above are the equivalent of a non-running QB putting up 4,400 yards and 28 TDs....

Aside from Ronnie Brown (and I totally disagree he'll get the goal line carries), what is different about McCoy's situation compared to last year? Vick scored a bunch of TDs last year. The same WRs were there last year... Because last year he was #2 in PPR leagues...why do you think its such a stretch that he does it again? Just because of Ronnie Brown (who turns 30 in a couple months)? The guy was #2 in PPR as a 22 year old in his first full season. It's not hard to imagine he could improve on last year.

I have the 4th pick as well and am leaning towards McCoy. I like a safe pick in the 1st and with McCoy's huge # of receptions, he's pretty safe. I especially like that you can look back a long way at Reid's history of RB usage. Westbrook was so good there for so many years as a PPR star. With Charles, there seem to be a lot more questions about how he'll be used and there's less of a track record (team/coach-wise). Charles' 2nd half schedule is also absolutely brutal.

I like Harvin pretty well, but I really think Moss' season had more to do with the Shanahans than with McNabb. 100 catches might be in play if he was in their offensive system that guys like Eddie Royal, etc. have excelled in. But McNabb is just a mediocre QB at this point and I don't think he deserves much of the credit for the season Moss had. There was no dropoff when Grossman was in there. Of these guys, I say Finley easily. TE is "deep." But its deep with guys who will put up 650-750 yards and 4-6 TDs. Its not deep with guys who could put up 1,000 yards and 10 TDs like Finley.

As for late round guys I like: QB-Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford are all guys who can be had 6th round or later who have good chances of putting up top 8 QB #s. I don't see many scenarios in which Kolb is even a top 12 guy so I don't like him as underrated. I mean, if underrated means you think he could finish 14th instead of 18th, then sure. But at QB in a normal 12 team league, if he's not top 12 or better, what's the point? RB-Ced Benson would be my pick in standard scoring. He'll get close to 300 carries and the Bengals OL is shaping up to be a solid run blocking unit. In PPR, I like Reggie Bush as a nice sleeper. He's averaged 5 catches per game in his career and should get that in Miami. Over a season, that's 80 catches...pretty easy to start doing the math: 500 yards rushing, 80 catches for 700 yards. 5 or 6 TDs. That's a 230 point season. WR- I like both Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford as sleepers in Oakland. They should be #1 and 2 in some order. Ideally, you grab both late and one of them emerges as a nice every week fantasy starter. I'd look at the same thing in New Orleans with Lance Moore and Robert Meachem. I don't think Colston's knee is right, so there's a good chance one of those 2 guys emerges as Brees' #1 target, which would make them a steal where they're currently being drafted. I also like AJ Green. The Bengals are going to target him a ton on all different sorts of routes. I see him ending up with 80 catches, 1000 yards and at least 6 TDs.

I guess it depends on your definition of "mid-level." Vereen was the 3rd RB drafted this year, behind only Ingram and Ryan Williams. Ridley didn't go long after him, as the 9th pick of the 3rd round. In my opinion, 2nd and early 3rd round picks are pretty valuable. Teams don't normally draft guys that early that they aren't planning on using pretty early in their careers. It is entirely reasonable to think that at least one of the 2 will get a good amount of touches this season, which would clearly hurt BJGE's status. I actually own BJGE in one dynasty league, but I still think his value is pretty low. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he isn't even fantasy relevant this season.

I'll give you my 2 cents fwiw on each of the guys you listed. I disagree a little bit with you on Ben and Cutler. You say only 2 PPG difference between Ben and Brady? That's a much bigger difference than you seem to think. I don't think either of these guys are overrated, but I don't see either as underrated either. QB is very deep this year. The top 7 (if you include Romo) are all proven and very good and give you a bit more PPG than Ben. And there is a huge tier of guys who give you great numbers and have upside with Ben, Schaub, Ryan, Stafford, Freeman, Flacco, Bradford, Eli, Cutler, etc. I feel like if you pass on one of the top 7 QBs, pick a guy or two out of this 2nd tier that you believe in and go with it in the 6th round or later that's great, but I wouldn't say they're necessarily undervalued or should be drafted higher. Basically, there's very little dropoff from Ben to QB12, so I wouldn't be in a huge rush to grab him, even in the 6th round. I agree with you on most of your RBs, especially your main 2 of Hillis and Tolbert. The 2nd year guys they are competing with for carries, especially Hardesty, have disappointed a bit so far. Love the value you get with those guys. I also like Deangelo if he continues to fall. I'm only so so on Thomas. I think he's fine if you draft him 7th-8th round or so as RB4, but I wouldn't want to count on him too much. Bush is going to get some touches and most of the RB catches. Plus, that offense looks like it could be terrible. I'd probably pass on him. I also don't like Forsett. I'm not convinced he's a better player than Leon Washington and it seems like at best he's a RBBC guy on a bad offense. Hard to see many situations in which he'd be a guy I'd ever want to start. At WR, I'm with you on Manningham. He's a talented guy and should put up great numbers. A real steal where he's being drafted. I'm not with you on Boldin. He doesn't have a ton of competition for targets, but I'm not sure he's all that good anymore. He plays WR like a RB and I feel like that means he gets old more similarly to RBs as opposed to WRs who stay productive longer. He just looks like he's lost a step to me (like a 30 y/o RB) and he's still getting drafted relatively too high for my tastes. Shiancoe, I don't see it. Kyle Rudolph is going to play a lot right away. I'd be pretty surprised if Visante is fantasy relevant this year. I do agree with you on Jimmy Graham. People in this thread seem to think he's one of those guys who went from underrated sleeper who everybody loved which then pushed him into the overrated category. I get the argument there, but I don't see it. Colston doesn't seem right. Lance Moore and Meachem are okay, but not special talents. Brees is going to get his 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Outside the top 5 TEs, Graham is the only guy I see who has a realistic shot at having a huge double digit TD season. I'd take him as TE6. Maybe he's not super underrated anymore, but I still think he's a good value.

There are 2 schools of thought on Rice: 1. He only had 1 good year when Favre was on top of his game. Aside from that he didn't do much and now he's back to having a crappy QB. 2. He came into the league and turned 21 a week before his first game. Not surprisingly, it took him a little while. He got better in his 2nd year (had just turned 22). Had the monster year after turning 23 with Favre. The common 3rd year breakout, especially for a guy who came into the league unusually young. He got hurt before his 4th season and didn't do much in the few games he played, except for the 1 big game. He's currently a 24 year old (almost 25) and had many teams after him offering huge money, recognizing that the 3rd year explosion (his last healthy season) wasn't a fluke. Personally, I fall more into the 2nd school of thought. I don't care if he was relatively unproductive as a 21 year old rookie. I think the 3rd year explosion at a young 23 showed some huge talent and he made Favre's #s that year as much as the other way around. I agree with the NFL GMs who wanted to pay him 9 million a year that he's a huge talent. I wouldn't draft him before the late 6th because his QB situation is pretty bad, but I do really like the guy. He has some huge potential, even with T Jack, and I'd love to have him as my WR4 or even WR3 if I go heavy on QB/RB/TE early.

There's such a thing as under analyzing as well (your post). I'll touch on each of your 2 "points" 1. You're going to have to do a bit better than a vague statement that the Chargers offense is "twice as potent" to actually make a point. Freeman threw 25 TD passes as a 22 year old in his first full year as a starter. Rivers threw for 30. A five TD difference....I'm not seeing "twice as potent" anywhere. 2. Vjax isn't Moss either. What does Randy Moss have to do with the discussion in any way? Those are your 2 points that "add up" to Vjax having a higher ceiling and higher floor? Great analysis champ.