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STLNATE

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Posts posted by STLNATE

  1. Posted

    I've been able to build a pretty good group of running backs but now I'm not sure who to play, especially with two of them playing tomorrow and the news on Rawls' knee although it's most likely nothing.

    Anyway, which three should I play this week:

    A. Peterson, D. Murray, J. Stewart, T. Rawls.

     

     

  2. Posted

    I was offered Calvin and Crowell for Hyde. A week ago I would have taken this in a heartbeat, but I actually think Hyde will continue to be successful. I also don't really like my team as much with the shift towards WR from RB strength. Plus, I'd have to drop someone and I don't really have anyone I would want to drop just for this trade.

    My current starters (non PPR):

    QB Rodgers

    RB A. Peterson

    RB Hyde

    WR R. Cobb

    WR Emanuel Sanders

    TE D. Walker

    Flex J. Stewart.

  3. Posted

    I have Murray, Bush, J. Bell, Bradshaw, and Mckinnon.

     

    I'm thinking I'm going Murray, Bradshaw and Mckinnon, but Joique has a nice matchup as well this week.

     

    What do you think?

  4. Posted

    I drafted RGIII and have been QB hopping each week from RGIII to Locker to Cousins. I just traded Asiata for Cutler and felt pretty good about it considering my QB situation and the fact that my other RBs are Murray, Bradshaw, Bush, J. Bell, and Vereen.

     

    However the guy I traded Asiata to said he was surprised I accepted.

     

    What do you guys think?

  7. Posted · Edited by STLNATE

    Graham

    Murray
    Jeffery

    Bush

    J. Bell

    Crabtree

    Vareen

    RG3

    L. Miller

    Terrance Williams
    Terrance West

    Brandin Cooks

    Deangelo Williams

    Andre Williams

    Andre Brown (dropping tomorrow and taking Bengals def with 1st waiver pick)

     

    Our league is pretty competitive and I'm pretty happy with my draft.

    What do you think?

     

    Also, who should I drop for a kicker?

     

    Btw the positions are: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, DEF, K, 6 Bench.

  14. Posted

    You have a really good team with plenty of depth on your bench, I would consider trading for a better QB than Romo. I know his most recent game was huge but I still think you could upgrade there. Nicks, Blackmon and Cameron would be good trade material, and if the other owner likes Romo and is needing some players like those three you could really upgrade your QB.

  19. Posted

    As one who enjoyed statistical theory courses in college (40+ years ago), as well as a former CPA and a reasonably decent tournament and online poker player for a while, I've found that 'stat monkeys' make some of the poorest fantasy football owners i've known.

     

    Yes, stats have their place in this great passion of ours, but are they are a poor subsititute for having a well trained set of eyes when actually watching the games, and a great knowlege and appreciation of game theory. Even more important is having the discipline to avoid knee jerk reactions based on inadequate sample sizes - especially from single game results.

    I agree with all of that, I don't consider myself a stat monkey though. I happen to have a statistical background but I don't really use it in my own fantasy football. Now if I could be a psychologist and figure out what these coaches are gonna do, then I'd really be getting somewhere.

  21. Posted

    As someone mentioned earlier, wouldn't we have to remove the short yardage carries as well to find a more realistic average? Didn't he carry it a few times at the goal line?

    There really is no right or wrong when looking at statistics unless, of course, you are actually changing them. You could remove those if you want but keep in mind those short yardage runs don't affect the average near as much as the break away runs.

     

    Removing the high outliers isn't to say well this run doesn't count, the purpose is to see what kind of distribution there is. For example two runners may each have 10 carries and 35 total yards averaging 3.5 total carries, but runner A may have all 10 runs within 2 yards of 3.5 and runner B may have had a 15 yard run and averaged 2.2 ypc on the other 9 carries. There is no real better or worse, it just depends on how you interpret the two different distribution types and how you think they might predict future results.

  23. Posted

    Thank you for having some intelligence. Sometimes these fantasy folks talk all high and mighty and do not understand football.

    No problem, while I am a football fan I also have a decent math background and that's more of the angle I was coming from. Removing outliers is a common and accepted method in analyzing data.

  24. Posted

    It isn't skewing the facts, what he said is the facts. He did choose a fact that maybe supported his claim, which is what people do in a discussion, unlike a scientific journal or something.

     

    I know the average yards per carry isn't all you need to predict, I just meant you are trying to predict value like you said and that is a factor in that value.

    I'm not on either side of the discussion, I was just defending the validity of his statistic.

  25. Posted

     

    If you take away all his runs he got zero yards.

    His point was that there was an outlier greatly affecting the average. You're right to point out that it still counts towards the average, but when you are trying to predict a future average (which is what we're doing here) outliers are important to note.

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