ckleinhe

the trouble with predicting NE backfield has one benefit: lowers the ADP of its running backs. Ridley is actually a decent target this year. A successful runner, and NE has trended towards being a run-heavy team.

i love MFL10s. the only problem with using them as a gauge for ADP is that the strategy is different: no trades, waivers, or lineup decisions means different players and positions have much more or less value than they do in a normal redraft league. still it's lots of fun and a valuable exercise. several sites have tools that help you gauge adp. i think fantasy pros has one for example, not sure of others. unless you can adjust the scoring/lineup settings to match your league, the value of mock drafts is questionable.

1. drafting gronk doesn't hinder you at any other position. the dropoff in point production at TE is much steeper than at WR or RB, so replacing wr/rb production later in the draft is much more feasible. 2. real beneficiaries are probably brady and aaron dobson, who can thrive downfield if gronk commands middle of the field attention. 3. might hurt ridley/running backs, as some red zone/goal line runs likely become gronk targets instead. 4. risk of re-injury and missed time is real, so adjust accordingly.

there's a good case for patterson's breakout, but it's still just potential. some thoughts: his total production last year was pretty comparable to tavon austin. anybody excited about tavon? he has either a sub-par or rookie qb his upside is priced in to his adp: no margin for error

lots of good points, but look at Cam's passer rating or adjusted yards/attempt when targeting specific receivers: it's pretty much the same no matter who the receiver is/was. what that suggests is that his passing success belongs to him, not the receivers. in other words, steve smith and brandon lafell didn't 'make' cam, cam did. so swapping out an aging, decling smiff and underwhelming lafell shouldn't really matter. no reason to expect a dropoff, imo.

devonta freeman, cj anderson, and lorenzo taliaferro might the criteria. not impressed with freeman's talent but a good offense if he gets playing time. ditto anderson. taliaferro i think has talent and probably opportunity at least early on if ray rice is suspended. another may be andre williams in new york. not a pass catcher, but a good runner. rashad jennings probably has the job locked down, but if he goes down williams is a better "lead" back than any of their other backs. not sure they're sleepers any more but terrance west and jeremy hill in cle/cin should both play right away too.

i like terrance williams better than sanders. first, t-will is clearly the #2 wr on a good offense, and the #3 target after Dez/Witten, that can probably improve under scott linehan. i can definitely see him having a great season. as for sanders, he hasn't impressed so far, including last year when he had lots of opportunity with no mike wallace or markus wheaton around. roethlisberger definitely < manning, but he is a decent qb. that's a red flag to me. then in denver, which i know can support a lot of players from a fantasy perspective, you've got plenty of other established targets in demaryius, julius, and welker. sanders starts off as the fourth target probably, plus denver drafted cody latimer. sanders basically has to be good enough to keep latimer off the field and siphon targets away from welker. i do think he'll have a solid season but maybe not top 25.

ahmad bradshaw is a decent play. if healthy he'll have a substantial role in a good offense. charles johnson is good too, and meets the "deep sleeper" idea pretty well. jarvis landry i agree with also. production don't lie. ditto josh huff. i actually like albert wilson in kansas city more than aj jenkins. if jenkins were going to do something he'd have done it by now. plus he wasn't picked by this front office. i know wilson is an UDFA but he's a very good player. lorenzo taliaferro may not be "deep" anymore but with rice facing suspension and possibly declining, and pierce coming off injury and underwhelming, he has a shot to play early in a kubiak (i.e. made arian foster a star) offense.

DT is absolutely worth keeping, IMO. He might make it back to you at pick 13, buy why chance it? For fantasy purposes he's right there with Calvin Johnson for top prospect. I wouldn't bother keeping Sproles at all. First, if Shady McCoy gets injured, it's probably Chris Polk who takes over, not Sproles. Second, Philly has a lot of mouths to feed. Third, he's a 30+ year old player at an oft-injured position whose old team was happy to part with.

i think either way you go is fine.

the other thing to consider is volatility, of two sorts. first is health volatility: RBs get injured more than other positions do. second is scoring volatility: RB scoring is more volatile than any other position. so after the "safe" RBs (btw, remember that half of the "safe round 1 RBs" last year busted), these two factors really favor the other positions. if you accept that a big portion of which RBs produce each year is chance, then the best strategy is to acquire as many as possible, as cheaply as possible. i'm not saying "don't take a RB in round one or two". there are definitely guys worthy of being picked there. but i am saying i've got no problem waiting until round 3, 4, 5, or later to start acquiring RBs. you could get joique bell, fred jackson, stevan ridley, terrance west, bernard pierce, etc. all in fifth round or later. sexy? no. but the first three are 1000 total yard types if they stay healthy, and the second two are likely timeshare minimum/starter potential types. so by round 5 i could have 2 WR1s, a top TE and a top QB. just sayin.

this is true. Toilolo was a good TD producer in college and while he won't make you forget Jimmy Graham, he has potential to be pretty valuable in the red zone. when you think about that part of the field, none of the Falcons' other receiving options stand out as really exceptional. put it this way, inside the red zone i'd rather throw to the massive Toilolo than to Douglas, Freeman, SJax, etc.

jeffery sticks out as the most irreplaceable player at his valuation.

unanimous. Ball.

* bishop sankey: best rb in the class, good offensive line, really no competition on roster w shonn greene injured/roster spot in jeopardy * terrance west is a good call too, as is jeremy hill: i think he could take away BJGEs role in Cincinnati * brandin cooks. rookie wideouts don't often overachieve, but remember sproles is gone, colston is aging, lance moore/robert meachem are gone too. he'll have scads of opportunity. as for carlos hyde, i just don't trust the situation at all. look at san fran's recent drafts: - glen coffee - anthony dixon - kendall hunter - lamichael james - marcus lattimore - carlos hyde they take a RB every year. why is hyde going to succeed where the others haven't, short of complete collapse by frank gore?

1. mccarron is nothing special. ten years as a clipboard holder is probably his best career outcome. 2. dalton is good enough to win with. 3. dalton is better than people think. check it: * QBs with over 11000 passing yards in first 3 seasons: Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton. * QBs with over 80 passing TDs in first 3 seasons: Manning, Marino, Dalton. look, i don't think he's as good as Manning and Marino. but he sure doesn't stink either.

i don't think he'll rbbc with taylor. i think if anything tim cornett or dwyer will pass taylor. he's so meh. but either way, ellington will get the most work and most opportunity. i'd rather have reggie bush, joique bell, or bishop sankey (clear #1 for now) than ellington, but that's just me. his adp seems about right.

* pierre thomas a top 10 RB * andy dalton goes over 4200 yards * ahmad bradshaw will equal or better T-Rich's fantasy production * houston gets over 7 wins

ebron opinion is all over. here's what i think: * the presence of pettigrew and/or fauria is irrelevant. ebron is a great prospect and a worthy pick. put any two of those three TEs on the field together and it causes problems: jump ball to fauria or deep seam to ebron? pass to ebron or run joique bell/reggie bush behind pettigrew? * the lions DID need help on offense. they scored a lot of points but were pretty inefficient on a per-drive basis. if they got to the red zone they were great, but they had a hard time getting there. calvin had two offseason surgeries and is 29 (?). tate is a nice # 2 receiver. after that there is NOTHING. i like the compromise: rather than trade up for sammy or mike evans, or take a lesser receiver later, get the best available "receiver" in ebron at their pick. * the lions need help on defense too, but frankly, the addition of one player helps the offense more than adding one player to the defense would. the lions now have 3 legitimate field stretching mis-match making receivers to go with a solid backfield. even if they added a great CB to the defense...they'd still be weak at safety, the other corner, linebacker...etc... * ebron dropped more passes than the average TE, but if you consider him a WR then his drops aren't so bad. i think his yards/catch is something like 16, which is WAY higher than the other TEs. it's more like what you'd see for a deep route running WR. In that role, his catch rate is more in line with the averages. finally, even though i like the pick, i wouldn't expect too much in year one. rookie receivers usually take awhile to hit their max. but he'll still help the offense. oh, and yes, too many weapons might mean each has a slightly lower production. but then in fantasy that just makes the target stafford, since all of those weapons should help him the most.

cameron is the "wr1" fwiw. for the rest of the guys the main thing is to watch ota/training camp reports. *someone* will be the #1 and that guy will have value. maybe not much but some. think jeremy kerley or stevie johnson. at different times they were the best receiver on crappy teams, and they were useful as the occasional flex or bye week fill in. fwiw charles johnson is probably the closest to gordon in terms of raw athletic talent (he's a freak). if he's healthy...maybe.

his comparable QBs would include guys like Ponder, Cassel, Jeff Blake, Garrard, Locker, Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, Shaun King, Jake Plummer, Byron Leftwich. At the top end his comps stretch to Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler and Steve McNair. so there's a reasonable chance he has a few years of being a starter, but the odds of him turning out to be 'great' are pretty slim.

not sure i totally understand the salary/roster structure, BUT Graham is arguably the best player in fantasy, esp if your league has any kind of PPR scoring. not only does his scoring often rival the best WRs, it's so far ahead of any other TE (except for Gronk, IF Gronk stays healthy for the whole season) that he gives you a big competitive advantage.

qb is tricky. i honestly think geno will start more games in new york than vick will this season. partly because he has the talent if he can put it together, but also partly because vick is declining and seemingly injured a lot. as for oakland, they gave up very little to acquire schaub and have a ton of cap room anyway, so i don't think his acquisition means much of anything regarding their intentions to draft (or not) a qb this year. schaub is arguably better than their current qbs, so he'd be a better starting option than what they currently have. but then he's also a solid enough guy that he'd probably be a good mentor to a young qb without a lot of ego issues. i also agree with the general sentiment that qb is becoming a draft-devalued position. that doesn't mean you can't get a 'franchise' qb in the draft, it just means they're not necessarily going to be in the top handful of picks. the new CBA really clamped down on rookie contracts. in the past, the only "position" that was worth a top-of-first-round salary was QB. now, really, most positioins are worth the salary associated with a high pick. so the pressure to take qb at top of draft, from a $ point of view, is gone.

DETROIT: Rd.Overall 1.13 Nick Fairley B-. Not as consistent as he could be, and had some off field issues. Still, a monster talent and very effective when on. Also, I think taking him was the right call- drafted based on his ceiling. But it's hard not to wonder how things would be if they'd taken Robert Quinn, who was drafted next, instead. 2.44 Titus Young F-. Sucker punched a teammate, lined up wrong on purpose, got cut. Mental health a serious issue and hope he is getting help. But his issues were not entirely unknown at the time of the draft. Add to that the fact that he was undersized and they could have had Torrey Smith or even Randall Cobb (also short but a lot heavier) instead and this pick looks even worse 2.57 Mikel Leshoure C. RB is an increasingly fungible position and even without the Achilles injury it's not clear he was a good value here. DeMarco Murray, Stevan Ridley, and Roy Helu all went later for example, and despite issues of their own, would have been better picks imo. 5.157 Doug Hogue F. Athlete with limited experience at his position. Lasted 18 games, no starts, before cut. Played in 9 more games for Carolina. Thbbt. This is what happens when you trade away picks to move up and then those picks don't work out. 7.209 Johnny Culbreath F. To be fair, 7th round picks seldom pan out. But Culbreath never made it into a game, before being cut for off field issues.

fwiw i figure CJ is worth about 14 points/game in PPR leagues. of course, his actual game by game scoring will be 1 point/20 points/3 points/17 points....