defectivesupport

This will be one of those times that no one has a true answer for you. It will cost a lot to get him, but if anything like what we saw Thursday continues, likely was operating as the WR1 on the team. The question always comes down to - will it continue? Were the chiefs just scheming to take away other guys and likely was the beneficiary? Will the ravens just run 80% of the game vs worse opponents? How much more/less value will Likely provide than someone else off the waivers later on? As far as Likely goes: Last year without Andrews at the end of the season averaged 4.5 rec, 54yards,1 TD over the last 6 games. His avg reception over that time was 15.5 yards. So he already has a track record of being a longer range receiving target, as well as a consistent red zone target for Jackson. He also played 75%+ of snaps in those games (with the rest of the season being around 20-30%). This week he played 66% - which lends towards him having a similar role to the end of last year... The rest is up to your thoughts on whether this was an anomaly or not. For me, I'm leaning towards spending on him, as I do not think there will be a popup WR (maybe there will be a RB) that would win me the league whereas Likely has some data to backup this outburst and he would be a marked improvement over what I currently have. He also just passed the eye test during the game for me - so I'm willing to bet that he will continue to trend.

yahoo grades directly off their xrank vs where you picked them. If you didn't follow yahoo xrank, you will get a worse grade. I know I usually get docked for picking players round 10+ that aren't their pick of the litter. Our running joke is that if yahoo ranks you 1st out of the draft, you have zero chance to win the league.

Yea I agree that Mims has a chance to be a top WR - payton just didn't use him a ton last year. If that was to ease him into the nfl and he gets volume this year, he should provide good value. Mims stats: 38% possible plays on field, returns kicks, 10.5 YBC, 7 YAC 15ADOT - even if you assume these number drop a bit with more targets - he would still be in line to match the top faster WR numbers. The other one in a similar situation is Tre Tucker (LV). 34% possible plays on field: 16YBC, 18.5 ADOT. Minshew last year threw to tuckers range with 55% accuracy in 183/490 attempts while raiders QBs last year only attempted 73/541 at the longer range. Obviously Adams and Meyers are in LV, but they both are more of possession WR. If they get tucker more involved with Minshew at the helm - tucker could see some really good numbers as he'll rarely be doubled. Its all about if these guys get more volume this year, but Mims has a more direct line to more volume.

It really depends what the draft state is and if its PPR or not. For me, the 2/3 rounds depends who fall to me. The issue is in general, zero RB was used because there was less risk in WR than picking RB (it was also in part that people used to pick a ton of RB early rounds, so you could snipe good value in WR while they all took RB). This year, there are a bunch of high APD WR that carry similar risk to a RB pick imo. London, Harrison, and nacua (to a lesser degree) all come with some inherent risk attached in that people are assuming they will do well without any real stats to back it up. London is the assumed #1 but has a new qb, a system that still has 2 RB they will feed, and has never thrived being WR1 so far. Harrison is a rookie, and while talented, still has yet to play a down - and people are playing for his ceiling. His floor is easily around the guys going in the 7-8th rounds. Therefore, if Adams/Olave are gone at ADP18 I might consider taking a RB round 2 and going for a deebo, evans, pittman type round 3 instead. However, for the sake of forecasting we'll assume you get olave R2 [PPR]: Round 1 at pick 6 you get one of WR3-5 on your list. Assuming McCaffrey goes before you it then just depends if breece or bjan get drafted. Round 2 you are in the range of any of the guys you mentioned - pretty much WR10-11 range most likely. If there are more zero RB in your draft though, this could be pushed to WR13-14. Its really up to you if you're willing to accept that value in R2. R3 you're at ADP30 - which usually nets you RB11-16 range. This group is: (Achane(19-31), Jacobs(22-39), Cook(26-41), Mixon(26-47), R White(29-38), Kamara(34-49), Walker(35-50)) R4 you're at ADP42 - which usually nets RB16--20. This group is (Kamara(34-49), Walker(35-50), Swift(50-74), Stevenson(51-82), R5 you're at ADP54- which usually nets RB19-24. This group is: (Stevenson(51-82), Jones(53-70), Conner(54-68), Montgomery(58-65), Z White(56-82), Harris(59-85)) R6 you're at ADP66- which usually nets RB23-27. This group is: (Z White(56-82), Harris(59-85), Mostert (60-89), Pollard (76-92), J Williams (64-116)) Again, it really just depends who falls to me. I am willing to run with guys in any of the R4-6 guys as my RB2-3 so I will keep an eye out to see if any good value drops to me for other WR, TE or QB depending on league scoring. And honestly there are still some startable RB's in the next rounds like Moss, Edwards, Ford (at least 8 weeks), dowdle/elliott etc. For example, a recent 6 pick draft I had netted: Jefferson, Adams, Jacobs, Walker, L Jackson, Engram, Pollard, D Johnson, Hopkins, Edwards etc.

This is my main thought in this years draft - there are a few that seem to be auto picks, then about 16 players that are all about equal. Personally, Hall isn't in those top 6 for me. Let's look at some of his stats: We'll ignore his week 18 stats where he faced a NE team that was waiting for the draft. Not counted in most FF leagues anyway. Hall averaged 11.6 carries / 5.8 rec per game in 2023. Aaron Rodgers pass rate to RBs was at a similar rate. Under Rodgers the past 3 years, Aaron Jones avg 11.9 carries and 4.5 rec per game VERY consistently. Which brings me back to hall - in order for hall to have a RB1 season, he will have to have early years Kamara efficiency AND Rodgers/Jets will have to stomp some games to get him the big blowup games that will pad his stats. Nothing points towards him getting more volume with Rodgers than he got last year. Picking him at 1-4 is picking him for his ceiling and ignoring his floor - which I am not willing to do in the first round. A counter point to my general feeling -to put this in perspective - the best RBs that "rely" on rec recently have been Ekeler (11.8 car/6.2 rec), Mccaffrey (17 car/4.8 rec), and Kamara (13 car/ 7.1rec). These guys were always drafted high as the rec gave them consistent points with chances at big games. Hall seems similar in stats to them overall, and if you think the jets line will return to 2022 form (2023 was 2.2 yard till contact, 2022 was 4.2) then Hall is probably worth a early pick, just like the others were.

First I just want to put out there that I do not like paying ADP for the ceiling of a player in the first 2 rounds. Those are rounds that I would rather get top 10 production than a bust, and chasing #1 when such a player has risk to drop out of the top 10 is not worth it in my opinion. The two this year that fit this category for me are Gibbs and Collins. However, most of these depend on your risk tolerance for the pair. Lets talk about some of the options: Puka Vs Kupp. both worth the current ADP. Puka in games without kupp(4 games): Average of 9.8 receptions (13 targets), 125.3 yards, and 0.3 TDs per contest. Puka in games with Kupp (12 games): Average of 5.2 receptions (8.5 targets), 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per (88 receptions, 145 targets, 1,337 yards, and 5.7 TDs if this was 17 games) Kupp (12 games): Average of 4.9 catches (7.9 targets), 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per outing (83 receptions, 134 targets, 1043.8 yards, and 6.8 TDs if this was 17 games) So even with the stats puka got when kupp was on the field, he would rank in the first 2 rounds. Kupp, assuming he isn't injured, is around the 3rd round in stats. So from there it is all up to how you feel the team will perform this year. Will kupp be injured again? Will kupp return to form now that he isn't injured? Will the rams have as good of an offense when their defense potentially isn't as dominant to get them good field position? Will they get more points if arizona is competitive now and doesn't get blown out both games? These are all hard to answer questions - but ones that need to be built into your risk tolerance. AJ Brown vs D Smith: This is the same imo - both worth the current ADP. Gibbs vs Montgomery: D Montgomery great value, Gibbs is all based on REC value. I would draft montgomery not gibbs. This pair ADP makes no sense to me based on stats (extrapolating to 17 games). Gibbs: 203 Rushes, 1071 yards, 11 TDs + 80tar, 59rec, 358 yards Montgomery: 265 rushes, 1232 yards 16 TDs + 29 tar, 19rec, 142 yards Even in the playoffs - Montgomery got more work than Gibbs. Gibbs is pretty much valued highly due to his rec count. Montgomery is pretty severely undervalued as his 17 game totals would have been within 5 points of J taylor's last year. Nico Collins vs Diggs vs Dell: Stats to come later but in short, I'm passing on collins due to the risk that comes with too many mouths to feed. This team seems like a great best ball - draft late type of group, but a risky investment in week to week play.

He won't break leagues whatsoever though....you are paying for him to literally reproduce Murry's best year ever with Hopkins - 115 rec-1400 yards - anything less than that would be a loss at current ADP. Puka played with one of the most well known QB's to feed their favorite target, and an offense that competes. Harrison is playing with Murray who barely did better than hobbs passing wise in his 8 games last year. "Don't forget how good he is" - is just a cop out. We saw him put up good stats at OSU but we also saw him disappear in games, give up on plays, and lose to CB's that ended up getting drafted early. Garbage time only can pad stats so much. I am not saying never draft the guy - he will probably be top 25 WR. But 2nd round is paying for career years from Murray and Harrison on a team that won 4 games last year - with Murray having yet to show that he is back to top 10 passing form everyone seems to fully expect out of him. Remember, Murray was only avg 211 yards passing in 2022 before he got hurt and only 224 yards last year.

Yea, that's more my point. I don't think that he doesn't have upside at all, its just the current draft ADP is assuming he hits his ceiling. I'd rather draft guys in the second that I know will produce that still have a chance to break into the top 5.

Marvin Harrison just feels like a media/nostalgia bait pick. There is no data to show he will be dominant. The cardinals last year did not show they could support a top WR - especially alongside a TE. Murray in his time back was only at 224.9 yards per game - and in those games(8) only once did a WR break 40 yards and that was brown with a 6-88 line. Harrison also only had a 57% catch rate last year. Sure, brown leaving opens up targets, but with similar catch rate Harrison would finish around the same stats as brown did: 60-600. It's not like the cardinal's division has gotten any easier. The second round seems way too rich for my taste - I think my comparison from last year would be Zay Flowers - 108 targets, 77 catches 858 yards. And Flowers was on a good team. I think I would start feeling comfortable with Harrison around the point where George Pickens, Zay Flowers, and D Hopkins are going... not anywhere near the second round. I'm not willing to bet my 2nd on chasing an upside inflated/blinded by namesake - this isn't a JJ or chase situation he's coming into.

Shakir had been doing well last year - and did better in games where Gabe wasn't there. Now Diggs and Gabe are gone - so 240 targets are up for grabs - most of the rec TDs were also these two, so 15/29 TDs are now up for grabs. The division is also projected to be competitive, so bills should at least have similar amounts of passing downs as last year. They have added Chase Claypool and Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman. This will have some impact for sure, but Claypool hasn't done anything since 2021, Samuel has consistent 50-60% catch rate and Coleman wasn't the most productive last year in college. Shakir ran very similar routes to diggs - both in the 8 yard range catches. My guesses for targets (550 last year) are Shakir(130), kincaid (100), Knox(80), Samuel (70), Cook (50), Coleman (50), claypool (30) --- which still leaves 50 targets from last years total.

It will be interesting to see if Kupp gets back into form or not. We have to also consider that with the loss of donald, the defense might not get off the field as much - so the offense might not get as many chances either. I do like kupps adp a lot more than puka's right now - kupp seems like he could be a similar situation as higgins from cinci or dv smith from phi have been the past few years. Puka is being drafted as a bonified wr1, which I think is recency bias...and some form of hope that another 2021 kupp season could happen on the rams. I wouldn't look at him till at least later second round - probably right below where mike evans is being taken. If I had to predict, I feel that both puka and kupp will get around the 80-100 rec and 1k-1200 yard range, probably trading off big games. I would say this puts both of them just outside the top 10, or maybe sneaking in at #10 - with puka being the bit higher of the two. Speaking of top 10, my list would be Tyreek, AJ brown, Lamb, Chase, Garret Wilson, Mike Evans, Amon-ra, Jefferson, Pickens, Aiyuk. Dark horses: Khalil Shakir (BUF), Rashid Shaheed (NO).

I think there are a few later rounders that could break the top 10 that others haven't mentioned: 1) Aaron jones: Pros - Rookie QB (or darnold) will both most likely check down a bunch. Cons - will probably be in committee and has to stay healthy. 2) Zeke - Its a strange situation of a player in decline...thats still the lead on a team that will be ahead. He should also keep most of the goal line tries. I would say low end of the top 10 is ceiling here, but wouldn't be all that surprising. Everything has to go right pick: 3) Jaleel McLaughlin - javonte hasnt proven he should keep the starting job, and if jaleel starts out in committee and gets hot, payton has done well for plenty of RB in the past.

There is also a small chance he is vying for a slightly lower pick to get onto an org he likes more instead of teams like the cardinals.

CMC, Hall, Henry, James Cook, Taylor. Whomever ends up the RB for TN or TAM is a potential good pick as well. Obviously chubb should be good if he's healthy - but i'm going to say he's just outside the top 5 this year. Keaton mitchell also has some upside still, depending what the room looks like.

Top 5: Josh Allen. That's it for now. Hurts has been a TD machine - but if NFL rules against the play, or the eagle suck like the last few games, he will drop out. Jackson is in the afc north and has injury history. Fields would be interesting depending where he ends up. I like the potential of most of the AFC south QBs, as the division has been subpar defenses the past few years. In order, Richardson, Stroud, Lawrence, Levis. Stroud falls too much into the passer only category for me to be comfortable with him as a lock top 5. Honestly, There are a bunch of QBs very similar situations as stroud to me - if the running QBs get hurt, they probably break the top 5 - if not they are lower top 10. These would be Cousins, Mahomes, Prescott, Stroud, Burrow, Herbert, Love, Stafford, and Goff - in that order. If I had to place 4 more after allen, I'd currently say Jackson, Hurts, Cousins, and Richardson

@weepawsI think amon will drop off a bit yardage wise - 105 rec and 1300 yards. Still good but a bit out of the top 5.

I think my top 5 currently are: tyreek, jefferson, ceedee - plus 2 early gut feelings for tank dell and drake london. As for other popular choices: I think amon will have too much competition from leporta to be top 5. Puka was good this year but Stafford seems to pick one guy per year, I dont trust that kupp wont take over too much of the role again. Chase is good, but AFC north is too good right now to allow for a top5 WR imo. Olave - the saints just never seem to use him as a WR1 when it matters plus a lot of TD's get vultured within the 20. Same argument for AJ brown - Tds are hard to come by on the eagles and they don't throw the ball enough to make him a top 5 guy. We'll see how much this changes as we see landing spots of FA and drafted players.

As mostly a lurker for the past 5-10 years here, your posts will be missed. Its always great to see some differing opinions - even if they caused some bickering over the years. Be in good health and all the best.