Mark Davis

That's the issue. All of the protesters, I agree with what they want, the return of the hostages in return for peace. But Hamas has shown there will be no peace. There was a peace deal before their assault. The reason the earlier cease-fire for hostages ended was they didn't have enough alive hostages to continue trading. Their sentiment is correct, but the reality is Hamas isn't someone you can make a deal with.

Perhaps it's timing, or polls he pays attention to. I thought I'd seen more positive polls in PA for Trump recently, but they could be biased or I could be remembering wrong. Either way, this is kind of tracking along the lines I expected when she took over for Biden. Got a bounce, quite a large and sustained one might be the most surprising point, now the euphoria is kind of settling down. As it settles, where is the settling point of her support? That's the big question. Her handlers have been masterful at the rollout and keeping her shielded, whether you think she can handle interviews or not there's no question they did right shielding her because it hadn't hurt her. Although now going forward, I think she is going to have to come out with policy and do more interviews. Bringing Walz along in the first one wasn't a good look. We can debate the why, but it fed into a narrative that she needed the support to handle it. But back to the real topic. For whatever reason, PA seems to be the most pro Trump state of those 3, WI/MI/PA. PA used to be like the white whale to Republicans, but for whatever reason, whether its' a shift in the state or just Trump himself, he's doing best there of the 3. It's also the most important in electoral votes, it almost makes NV irrelevant if he wins PA because of those extra EVs. Of course I assume if he wins PA he must have won NC and GA. It would be threading quite an electoral needle to see a red PA but blue NC or GA.

From Silver's comments, a lot of the reason he dropped Harris below 50% in his outlook was that PA polling has been stubbornly a narrow Trump lead. PA is the most frequent tipping point state in his analysis/simulations.

I pretty much replicate this feeling. I like a lot of Trump’s policies but don’t love the man himself. I didn’t vote for him in the primary but will be in November.

Coach Pearl has Roland Martin and some Twitter warriors upset over this. I wonder if they felt the same way when Steve Kerr spoke his mind. I didn’t object to Kerr speaking at the DNC. That’s his right to do so. https://x.com/coachbrucepearl/status/1828027946386219422?s=46&t=QA56vEicq_0uiHVUVTt_Hg

Interesting. Totally possible it's that way as well, even if they factor in depreciation on a tax basis. That's a totally different hurdle than the safety of a bank account. Granted, his lifestyle takes a healthy bite out of it as well, so it's not like it's ever available to be 100% invested either.

What numbers are you using to make that statement? I don't think any of us knows either his inheritance or net worth to judge this accurately. All we can use are estimates. The total inheritance speculated by the NY Times was $413MM (in 2018 dollars). That means they used discount rates to get to that time valued amount. In 2024 Forbes estimated his worth at $7.5B. Quick math is you'd have to grow $413MM at over 18x to get to $7.5B. That's also penalizing him for the discount rate, whatever that rate the NY Times used was. My guess is that discount rate would roughly track what you could make in a safe bank account. Again, a lot of vague numbers there. Maybe there are some other numbers out there that differ, but I had to use something to evaluate it. If those numbers are remotely accurate, someone growing an amount at 18x after the initial amount is adjusted for time value of money is way above leaving it in a bank.

I'm showing Trump -115, Harris -105. Equates to Trump as an 11:10 favorite, almost a pick 'em. Just some really bizarre and wild polling going on out there. Hard to know exactly where stuff stands and my guess is that's why we are at near parity. One minute you see Harris up in NC but Trump up in PA, the next poll has it flipped. I don't see a world Harris wins NC and Trump wins PA. That would break the mold for sure. NV is getting more challenging for Trump like I always knew it would. That was never going to be a Trump runaway, at least that I could see. Very tough state for the red team. Although to be honest, NV doesn't often become the deciding state in the math. You really have to envision some odd combinations for it to be tipping point. The only real scenario where I can see it as the tipping point is if Trump loses AZ/PA/WI but wins MI and NV. I don't really see that being the order of likelihood though. If anything I think MI is the toughest of those 3 for Trump and AZ is more winnable for him than NV as well. I still think to win Trump must hold NC and reclaim GA at least. The easiest path would then be AZ and one of the WI/MI/PA group. Although if he somehow won two of those he could afford to lose AZ. The narrowest path would be winning GA/NC and taking the biggest prize of the upper midwest 3 with PA but losing AZ and NV. That would end up 270-268 for Trump. Trump could flip AZ/NV/GA and end up losing 270-268 if Harris wins all three of WI/MI/PA. Again, hard to show how NV gets either over the hump. Winning it likely just adds to margins unless the ME or NE districts do something unexpected

Economically we aren't the same, but you and I aren't as far apart as I am from a growing wing and base of the Democratic Party. Polling shows this anti-capitalism view amongst younger voters who are voting D. Much of that feeling in my opinion comes from the grievance politics and blaming our past for why someone can't afford a house today or isn't making what they want at their job. Again, our past is not perfect, but we do allow more opportunity than most any other society or country in history. The view they have in my opinion is skewed and being affirmed by today's political rhetoric. It's hard to convince someone that idea is wrong without trial and failure once they believe in it. And as the people in Venezuela are learning, you can vote your way into that but you may have to shoot your way out. I don't view myself as hard right, in fact I was actually more centrist or even center-left on the spectrum when I voted for Bill Clinton. None of my views have changed on most major issues, except I'm for gay marriage now and wasn't before. So somehow I moved left on one issue but now am more aligned with the right. Bill Clinton was tough on crime and worked with house Republicans to balance the budget. I long for those days.

It's hard for me to get all worked up over young white kids getting upset over a R.E. Lee statue. When I was in high school, our state's largest 2 high schools were Jeff Davis and Robert E. Lee. Both schools had large black populations then, and are almost entirely black now. That was something that should have been changed long ago and only occurred last year. Now the black kids that went to those schools, they had something to protest over. The statues, they should stay for historical reasons. Like it or not Richmond was a capital of the Confederacy.

I don't think at our core we truly hate each other, although many times our hate for the others vision for what our way of life should be bleeds over into a personal hate for some. I'm disinterested in living in a country with some of the far left's goals. I may not hate them personally, but I do hate their goals and what it would do to our country. It's not lost on me that they hate much of what I view as our way of life and history, an opinion I'd argue they are allowed to have because of what we have been in our past. I don't view our past as evil, rather one with mistakes. However, one with fewer mistakes and one that has done more for the betterment of the world than any country in history. While we can improve, we shouldn't be ashamed of our past and we should tread lightly on broadly changing what we have been. At the top of that list I'd include an unashamed advocacy for capitalism and self determination. The erosion in the polling for younger people with a positive view of capitalism is one we shouldn't ignore. It's quite dangerous.

I believe item 2 he was talking about the R.E. Lee statue and people wanting it to stay for historical reasons. That was the way I took it at the time and appears to be what sites like Snopes have determined.

Trump's tax cut is going to put us further in debt. That is literally immediately on the heels of giving first time home buyers $25,000. Some bizarre economics being spewed.

So you think John Bolton is lying to protect Trump? He's no fan of Donald Trump as far as I can tell.

Someone should tell him the press that doesn't like him covered up for him for years. And if you watch them after tonight, this farewell speech will be lauded as greater than Lou Gehrig's.

Well, unless you count the antisemites on college campuses.

I give her credit for giving it a good show. You know damn well she wants to kick Walz in the testicles so hard they get hung up inside his leg

Tough. Dana today, but Martha used to be the stock babe back in the day at CNBC. She was hot, especially on days when money was being made too! Just realized when looking her up that she's 60. She deserves big time kudos for looking like she does at 60.

They're pushing him late into the night. It's now 10:30 EST. That way the grab bag that is Joe Biden on stage can do minimal damage.

No. Can you imagine if they sold tickets to this stuff to the general public?

It is impossible, tickets can't be purchased by the public. It's delegates, media, a few invited guests. RNC is the same way.

We never pay for anything other than with borrowing and printing money. Eventually that will run out on us, or our kids.

That type rule would ignore the changes in the way pitchers are trained now. When I first started being around ballparks I can remember seeing Mark Wohlers in AA and how I’d heard of this guy hitting 100 and here he was. It was a novelty, way back in 1991. Look now how many guys hit that mark. But the same is true for starters, the modern game is all about velo. It creates more physical strain and injuries.

I disagree they are theoretical. They're used by economists in every decision. It's like multiplication tables in math or 1+1=2. It's the basic factual foundation of economics like those simple equations are to mathematics. You have to have basic truths to examine issues. This one isn't complex because there is only one change/input. Let's talk inflation in American housing, not global, as that is what this directly impacts. This won't have an impact on the price of beans in Minsk. However, there is no chance the government subsidizing $25K is not going to directly impact demand in starter homes here in the U.S. It's what Harris' goal is, and it would succeed in increasing that demand. If we can't agree that increasing demand in a vacuum increases price, then we aren't operating in the same reality. There is no offset she's mentioned and there is literally only one outcome. Someone could argue that outcome is ok for some greater goal, obviously I'd disagree. It's possible we enter a recession and that offsets some of the increase, but even in such scenario prices would still be propped up higher by this action.

Bingo