Mark Davis

You’ve got a real problem with this girl for some reason.

Trump makes some awful mistakes, I'll grant that. I didn't vote for him in the primary because I thought someone else would have an easier win. But not everyone wants to see the flaws in their horse. You've previously admitted that the border situation and the treatment by this administration is unpopular. Why is it suddenly now you feel like Harris' policies are popular? I don't think people hang inflation on her as much as they do the border. And if they do, blame the Biden administration for that. It's true, she has a decent chance where Biden had none. But they are essentially giving her the Biden basement treatment. This luster they are giving her only stays on until she makes a mistake or some of her unpopular views or the failures of the administration she was part of are questioned. It's going to take Mike Wallace coming back to life and jumping out of the shrubs somewhere for her to ever do an interview apparently. I can't blame her or her handlers, she's getting the God status treatment without having to get out there. We learned from Biden that you can pull someone from the retirement home down the road and read a speech off a teleprompter.

Because she wants to say she's going to fix it while not pissing off the left who wants open borders. She's betting the public is stupid enough to go for it. She may be right.

I prefer the Venetian/Palazzo to the Bellagio. It's in a little better shape and directly across from the Wynn. Both are upscale and last I looked the pricing was similar. Lots of great restaurants there as well.

Hey, let's compromise on cutting off the federal payouts to the illegal immigrants and these red state people you mention. You can get me on board if we cut it to people from all states. We need to, our debt is out of control and our interest burden is choking the life out of our kids' future.

You let the media dupe you into thinking Biden was ok, but now you think they're down the middle. There's an old saying about fooling me once. There aren't too many down the middle players today.

There are quite a few clips out there of networks referring to her as a "border czar" now denying those terms were ever used. They were used on their air. That's just one example.

The media has been carrying the water for her big time. She's been elevated by the media with all the fanfare of the next member of the Kim dynasty. Next we will hear how the sun shone more brightly on the day she was born than it ever has before. Just the pass they've given her on the border alone is remarkable.

This is pretty much the answer I think. It's why big men struggle so mightily from the line when some women's players are near automatic due to form, technique, and repitition. My FT% actually dropped from middle school to high school as I grew taller. Had to learn to bend more at the knees to compensate. I guess bank shots could work, but seems to me like the straight on angle would make it much more difficult. Maybe I just never considered it but I was always taught to just finesse it over the top of the front iron with touch. It's gotten really bad in college basketball today. When the game is on the line I don't trust even the superstar players there to make two clutch FT's. That's the one area that the women's game is superior in. Most of them are fundamentally sound, especially the guards shooting FT's. But as stated above, they are also shorter, creates an easier angle to shoot with touch versus someone shooting from a much higher and flatter trajectory release point.

You can place money right now at Harris +130 or Trump -165 at Bovada. Slightly more toward Harris than earlier today. Removing the vig is where I get my estimate. If I could get even money on Trump I'd bet a significant amount. I still see the swing states as problematic for Harris. But once it's around 65/35 obviously it's not a sure thing. I'm just wired that way though, I used to count cards at blackjack so 55/45 was enough to bet a significant amount and take the bad with the good.

Still looks like about Trump a 3:2 favorite to me. Down slightly from about 7:3 a few days ago.

One of the funnier Trump bits was when he riffed on Strzok and Lisa Page https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-mocks-peter-strzok-lisa-page-at-minnesota-rally/2019/12/02/968979d0-38b3-409e-97c6-c2e20c9cfa53_video.html

Yeah, in 2020 I think the number of absentee votes collected via dropboxes was over 550K, the majority from Metro Atlanta. That's a huge difference.

They're accurate as to people's expectations, not necessarily representative of the polls of today. Like I said when this all went down, I actually expect Harris to take a polling lead and then subside some. Also, there's a difference in overall polling vs popular vote winner. If you looked recently at popular vote odds, Trump/Republicans were around an 11:10 favorite, close to even money, but in essence a 3:2 or greater favorite in the electoral college. While it is true Kelly or Shapiro might help in one of their states, the problem is unless she gets GA back, she either has to win AZ or sweep all 3 of the rust belt states. I don't think she will be foolish enough to take Cooper and try for NC. Maybe she sets the world on fire and becomes the next Obama, but I don't see that yet. There is definitely excitement behind her, but the excitement over her being named is the easy part, maintaining it is the heavier lift. She's getting the "anybody but these two" bump for now.

They're certainly going to be volatile for awhile and we need to give them time to settle down. Her VP pick, especially if Shapiro of PA, may change them. I don't think her positives are way up on Biden, but I do think she brings home some people who just were gonna stay home or vote 3rd party due to Biden's decline. She may gain some minority support in exchange for some white working class support. I suspect that's the slight ticks of difference we see in GA and PA polling, that would tend to fit the demographics of each state. But time will tell if that stays constant. John King of CNN mentioned he didn't think Shapiro was going to be a candidate because he was Jewish. I think personally he's the VP that would worry me the most if I were Trump. He helps Harris in PA. The inference is Shapiro would hurt her in MI with the same group that Biden was losing over Gaza. I'm not sure of that and it's a needle she may as well try to thread because she has to sweep those states.

Well they are, but also you are talking about individual odds versus the field. If you look at Trump's individual odds, they haven't changed that much. Basically, it's just that the odds are pretty assured now she will be the D nominee.

Betting markets have reopened and have Trump at slightly more than a 2:1 favorite, around 70%. Pretty much where we were before vs the Democratic field. Looking at some of the polling data by state, all extremely new. Harris appears closer than Biden was in GA, but still behind enough that it's outside the margin of error She's closer in MI, within the margin or error. Appears to be about even in WI. However, most problematic for her is that she seems to be behind Biden's polling in PA. PA is a game over state if she doesn't win. I guess there's a world where GA is blue and PA is red, but I just can't envision it today. Unless she picks up GA somehow, losing PA isn't an option for her.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris' polling rise, possibly even overtaking Trump. The imagined candidate always appears strong, then may get that initial boost. The real test is going to come once the scrutiny comes and oppo research gets dumped. I'd think you may see a rise, then a fall in polling. I do think the D's have a better shot with Harris than Biden, but I think behind Biden of the realistic candidates she would have been the Trump campaign's next choice to run against.

Tim is straight up, he already paid me.

Actually mine was $500. The posts were on Feb. 8. I'll tag the post if you want, but would rather you have a look to verify so it's not something I edited.

I keep thinking that the D's can't make things worse, then the next day happens.

I’ve always thought he was a narcissist. I’d love to get a psychological write up on him. If anyone here has ever been into sports memorabilia he is a major player to this day. If you recall the old 1976 SSPC cards I believe he did the write ups on the backs of those.

I honestly thought it might be this weekend, perhaps Sunday or Monday. He’s weathered the storm longer than I thought he would. I still don’t discount tomorrow or Monday he folds.

I know how you feel and we've disagreed for some time on this. We disagreed just before the debate where I asked you specifically if you could see where Biden's speech now wasn't like it was four years ago and you told me you could see no difference in now and then. At least the MSM has moved past that whole "cheap fake" narrative and can admit now he's diminished. They knew it before though, it was obvious.

It takes awhile to come around, it's like anesthesia wearing off