Mark Davis

The latest Bovada odds have it at: Trump -150 Biden +145 Trump is roughly a 3:2 favorite based on these numbers. The odds for someone other than the two of them unsurprisingly continues to decrease with each increment of time that passes. This is the first time when adding the odds together they come up on the negative (vig) side, which means now the implied likelihood of someone other than one of these two winning is less than the vig/house rake of roughly 10%, sometimes a bit more on these prop bets.

The lynchpin that would cause the SEC to move right now from what I'm hearing is if somehow UNC got clear of the ACC's Grant of Rights. I could see a scenario with a UNC, Virginia, and two others. FSU and Clemson have hurdles in that Florida and South Carolina are going to stick together with other members from states with non-member power 5 type schools (Kentucky/Louisville; Georgia/Ga Tech) to try and block entry. Texas just brought enough dollars in to make it a must. But UNC opens a new market and has the brand right now. I think the Big Ten would covet them as well. Short of Notre Dame I'm not sure who else they'd want in more.

I think this is a valid point. On the kids, the pictures of the white (almost too pale from lack of sun) kids on their knees and bending over for the Islamic prayer says a lot. These are lost souls desperate for somewhere to belong. They will conform to any underdog or oppressed cause of the moment. The problem for us is that's a perfect breeding ground to have some home grown militants down the road.

Between that and Kari Lake running for Senate the R's have made AZ as hard as they possibly can to try and win.

I'm not nitpicking, it's just nothing alike. Iran's regime denies the Holocaust even occurred, they are Hamas' biggest supporter, you know the one that is in charge of indoctrinating the children, the ones now that are the adults. Russia on the other hand views many Ukrainians as their countrymen and ethnic kin. There's quite a large difference. People have pointed this out to you in many different forms, you can deny it if you want to fit your view, but trying to split hairs to twist a few words of the narrative to narrowly explain these acts away is denying yourself the truth.

Some will vote for Trump too. I voted for Haley in the primary even though it was decided but will vote for Trump in November. Just like much of those "uncommitted" will come to vote for Biden in November. My wife voted for Johnson in '16, Biden in '20, Haley in the primary, I think she's throwing in the towel and voting for Trump in November. Time will tell there though.

One side has to adjust to find equilibrium when it comes to housing and interest rates. The current balance can't continue. You can make more money today, significantly more, in a savings account as opposed to rental property returns. Either single family housing has to come down or rates must reduce. Having a risk off investment returning more than at risk capital isn't normal.

No it's definitely a real chance. To be totally honest, the two odds average to +115. The book has to make vig so the true imputed odds of one of them NOT winning is probably 20-22%, depending on their calculated rake for this prop bet.

Basically the book is inferring there is around a 15% chance, maybe a little greater that one/both don't make it to November.

The books only care about making their vig at the end of the day. Shows some money is coming in on people like Newsom and others. I guess there is never an absolute certainty both make it to the general once enough delegates are locked up, but based on the climate and ages of these two I think it's even more so. If someone was even odds they should be -110, likely a little more on one of these prop bets, perhaps -115ish. On sports action even is -110 to make the vig for the house. I'm guessing they are getting enough money on the others coming in that they can afford to pay these slight plus odds on the two favorites. As morbid as it sounds, these are basically odds that one dies or is replaced on the ballot in some way.

I know a FedEx pilot. Maybe he can sell a spot in the jump seat.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics Both presumptive nominees are still in plus odds territory. Shows the significant non-zero odds being baked in that one has to be replaced. You could bet on Trump and Biden both, and win money as long as one of them actually wins. Pretty odd dynamic going on.

It’s not simple. I’m not saying there is an easy fix. But we shouldn’t lie to ourselves about the reality of sentiment and radicalization of a large portion of that population.

Every is a word I would never use, but I think the term majority applies. Given the polling, I'd say so comfortably. Children there are indoctrinated to this from birth now, so it's to be expected. There are many reasons the Gulf States won't accept Palestinian refugees, this is at the top. Those countries are often advocates for Palestinians, but even they realize the issues among the population and won't take them in because of it.

I'm finding this a little disjointed. You asked the following: Did all the people die that were living in the places Russia has taken from Ukraine? To which I replied that the native population in the Donbas and Crimea were viewed by the Russians as their brothers or ethnically kin in some regard. That's a large reason Russia treasured that land to begin with. I pointed out that the Palestinians don't feel that way about Israeli Jews because you were making a statement in regard to a specific country or piece of land. That's why I replied in that manner. So it stands to reason that people the Russians view as ethnically similar, and whether we like it or not there is a significant portion of the population especially in Crimea that views Russia favorably, would get treated better than Palestinians would Jews should they take over that land in a war. The Russians have done some horrible things, but not what Hamas did. And yes, Hamas is quite popular with the Palestinians. Polls make that quite clear.

I know that you realize the difference in this comparison you made. The Russians view many Ukrainians, especially in the captured Donbas and Crimea regions as their brothers, similar languages and ethnicity. I don't think the Palestinian Arab population sees Israeli Jews in that same brotherly light.

Well, that certainly is reassuring.

Dude has to move as soon as his name fades a bit from the spotlight where people won't know/remember.

Yeah that's kind of my sentiment as well. The kid at Ole Miss was out of line and it's fine to call him out. But the folks wanting to call him out are often quite dismissive of the heavy Marxist and antisemitic views that started on these campuses.

Go to bat for him? Here is my initial wording for what he did: "This guy certainly made a mistake and got carried away in a moment, and he is going to pay for it even if outside the legal system. " If you want to believe those protests didn't have heavy anti-semitic undertones and in many cases outright support for Hamas and anti-American views, there's no need to discuss further. There's been more than enough videos showing those instances so it's pointless to discuss.

I'd contend his online doxxing and having to answer for this going forward is way more punishment than a bus ride down to the precinct, only to be let out by dusk the next morning. If Alvin Bragg ends up getting jailtime for those people, then we can have that discussion as to what is worse. As to the second part, I don't consider what he did any worse than what some of the protestors are openly saying and chanting who also technically have committed no crime. Also, some of those people have openly supported Hamas. So yes I believe those people who are doing that are committing worse acts than him, yet again, he will get the worse end of it as far as being identified and asked to explain going forward in life.

You asked about arrests being made for those in the video, that is why not. On the other hand, those acts have been committed by people in other videos and we will see what jail time they get, how many get the response individually on social media that he is getting. I have my serious doubts Alvin Bragg is going to throw the book at the Columbia and CCNY folks so I feel like they'll get nothing in the end. I also feel pretty certain in saying the Ole Miss guy is going to have quite the hurdle to clear in answering questions and reforming his image before getting any job in the future. Maybe he should have worn his covid mask and he could skate as well. But the truth of the matter is there are many, many more on the other side of the issue saying incendiary things. It's hard to individually hold people to account in a group versus this one guy. So yes, I feel he's going to pay an individually higher price.

I didn't see any vandalism or violence, or even the disruption of classes in that video.

In some ways I agree with you. But looking forward, who do you think is going to pay a higher price for their actions, this Ole Miss frat guy, or some of the people unmasked who made hate filled remarks, supported a terrorist organization, as well as destroyed property and disrupted classes at colleges? It's like when the bot guy who posts here constantly about Jan 6. Yes that should be condemned as well. But those folks are serving pretty lengthy jail sentences, they are paying for their crimes. This guy certainly made a mistake and got carried away in a moment, and he is going to pay for it even if outside the legal system. But he didn't actively plan to go spend several nights in an encampment, continually support a terror organization and repeatedly make hate filled remarks. Yet I'm willing to bet you that he is to pay a much higher price for his actions.

Yeah, as someone who spends a fair amount of time on SEC campuses I'm going to go out on a limb and say these protests that they try to fire up on them are probably going to be met with some pretty nasty opposition. Some of it is going to go too far in the rhetoric for sure. But I don't think the pro Hamas wing is going to find the land too hospitable around here.