Mark Davis

Damn. Just look at that guys eyes and tell me you'd leave your kids with him. Montgomery is an absolute s-hole. Everyone who could got out years ago.

Kudos to everyone following closely. I follow politics way more than the average person and even I've had to tune this one out.

Met him two summers ago at a business conference I was at. Told great stories and very personable guy. I'm a pretty tall guy and when I posted a photo with him on social media with him standing way over me that got a lot of comments. What's sad is he was kind of stooped over even at that. When he sat down, he used two stacked chairs to sit so that his knees had less strain.

Yeah, I agree with a lot of libertarian views, but the border isn't one of them. I don't know that I'd say that one issue or any one issue should exclude someone from a certain ideological group. One thing I've found disheartening in recent times is the litmus/purity tests for people. There's not a party or group I agree with on every major issue, much less every issue down the line. Anyone who always agrees with one party needs to think for themselves more.

That bill wouldn't fix the problem. Granted it was as much of a lessening of the flow legislation as could get passed at the moment. Trump owns the border narrative, while you may be correct in that the bill offered was better than nothing, it's that old saying in politics that when you're explaining you're losing. The majority of the electorate sees Trump as hawkish on the border and Biden as for more open borders. Nobody has to like it or agree with it, but it's the way it is. Trump has made a talking point of it for years and most of what the general public will remember is Biden stopping building the wall, reversing Trump's executive orders, and the kids in cages narratives. The average voter isn't going to be that nuanced. When it comes to the border and how it stands now Trump is viewed to the right, Biden is viewed to the left. I think the majority of the electorate wants us to the right of where our border stands right now.

Elevated and more persistent inflation numbers than the Fed thought would occur even just 2-3 months ago are going to be an awfully strong headwind for Biden to try and overcome.

I'm not sure how last night went different from what anyone expected. Trump was never going to be popular in that room. We can debate over whether it was wise or not. But for heavens sake, if closing the border is even up for discussion, that's not where the electorate is going to be this cycle. Anything other than closing the border is a losing position. Biden may not have any intention of doing so, but you can bet he's going to talk about securing our border down the stretch because he knows that must be his position.

The latest Bovada odds have it at: Trump -150 Biden +145 Trump is roughly a 3:2 favorite based on these numbers. The odds for someone other than the two of them unsurprisingly continues to decrease with each increment of time that passes. This is the first time when adding the odds together they come up on the negative (vig) side, which means now the implied likelihood of someone other than one of these two winning is less than the vig/house rake of roughly 10%, sometimes a bit more on these prop bets.

The lynchpin that would cause the SEC to move right now from what I'm hearing is if somehow UNC got clear of the ACC's Grant of Rights. I could see a scenario with a UNC, Virginia, and two others. FSU and Clemson have hurdles in that Florida and South Carolina are going to stick together with other members from states with non-member power 5 type schools (Kentucky/Louisville; Georgia/Ga Tech) to try and block entry. Texas just brought enough dollars in to make it a must. But UNC opens a new market and has the brand right now. I think the Big Ten would covet them as well. Short of Notre Dame I'm not sure who else they'd want in more.

I think this is a valid point. On the kids, the pictures of the white (almost too pale from lack of sun) kids on their knees and bending over for the Islamic prayer says a lot. These are lost souls desperate for somewhere to belong. They will conform to any underdog or oppressed cause of the moment. The problem for us is that's a perfect breeding ground to have some home grown militants down the road.

Between that and Kari Lake running for Senate the R's have made AZ as hard as they possibly can to try and win.

I'm not nitpicking, it's just nothing alike. Iran's regime denies the Holocaust even occurred, they are Hamas' biggest supporter, you know the one that is in charge of indoctrinating the children, the ones now that are the adults. Russia on the other hand views many Ukrainians as their countrymen and ethnic kin. There's quite a large difference. People have pointed this out to you in many different forms, you can deny it if you want to fit your view, but trying to split hairs to twist a few words of the narrative to narrowly explain these acts away is denying yourself the truth.

Some will vote for Trump too. I voted for Haley in the primary even though it was decided but will vote for Trump in November. Just like much of those "uncommitted" will come to vote for Biden in November. My wife voted for Johnson in '16, Biden in '20, Haley in the primary, I think she's throwing in the towel and voting for Trump in November. Time will tell there though.

One side has to adjust to find equilibrium when it comes to housing and interest rates. The current balance can't continue. You can make more money today, significantly more, in a savings account as opposed to rental property returns. Either single family housing has to come down or rates must reduce. Having a risk off investment returning more than at risk capital isn't normal.

No it's definitely a real chance. To be totally honest, the two odds average to +115. The book has to make vig so the true imputed odds of one of them NOT winning is probably 20-22%, depending on their calculated rake for this prop bet.

Basically the book is inferring there is around a 15% chance, maybe a little greater that one/both don't make it to November.

The books only care about making their vig at the end of the day. Shows some money is coming in on people like Newsom and others. I guess there is never an absolute certainty both make it to the general once enough delegates are locked up, but based on the climate and ages of these two I think it's even more so. If someone was even odds they should be -110, likely a little more on one of these prop bets, perhaps -115ish. On sports action even is -110 to make the vig for the house. I'm guessing they are getting enough money on the others coming in that they can afford to pay these slight plus odds on the two favorites. As morbid as it sounds, these are basically odds that one dies or is replaced on the ballot in some way.

I know a FedEx pilot. Maybe he can sell a spot in the jump seat.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics Both presumptive nominees are still in plus odds territory. Shows the significant non-zero odds being baked in that one has to be replaced. You could bet on Trump and Biden both, and win money as long as one of them actually wins. Pretty odd dynamic going on.

It’s not simple. I’m not saying there is an easy fix. But we shouldn’t lie to ourselves about the reality of sentiment and radicalization of a large portion of that population.

Every is a word I would never use, but I think the term majority applies. Given the polling, I'd say so comfortably. Children there are indoctrinated to this from birth now, so it's to be expected. There are many reasons the Gulf States won't accept Palestinian refugees, this is at the top. Those countries are often advocates for Palestinians, but even they realize the issues among the population and won't take them in because of it.

I'm finding this a little disjointed. You asked the following: Did all the people die that were living in the places Russia has taken from Ukraine? To which I replied that the native population in the Donbas and Crimea were viewed by the Russians as their brothers or ethnically kin in some regard. That's a large reason Russia treasured that land to begin with. I pointed out that the Palestinians don't feel that way about Israeli Jews because you were making a statement in regard to a specific country or piece of land. That's why I replied in that manner. So it stands to reason that people the Russians view as ethnically similar, and whether we like it or not there is a significant portion of the population especially in Crimea that views Russia favorably, would get treated better than Palestinians would Jews should they take over that land in a war. The Russians have done some horrible things, but not what Hamas did. And yes, Hamas is quite popular with the Palestinians. Polls make that quite clear.

I know that you realize the difference in this comparison you made. The Russians view many Ukrainians, especially in the captured Donbas and Crimea regions as their brothers, similar languages and ethnicity. I don't think the Palestinian Arab population sees Israeli Jews in that same brotherly light.

Well, that certainly is reassuring.

Dude has to move as soon as his name fades a bit from the spotlight where people won't know/remember.