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Everything posted by Mark Davis
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Correct. My background was as a CPA but I was on the audit side. I reviewed it back during Covid and it was better to leave as is.
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LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
I've been looking to get some sideline money in. I'm actually happy with today's pullback. People need to remember turbulent markets have these wild days in either direction. I haven't even opened any of my 401/SEP/ROTH/Taxable account pages since this began. I just know that SP500 at 5000 or so is a pretty substantial discount should we get back to that level. It is looking prudent to average in some here. Anyone who is watching their balance daily is going to have sleepless nights and feel quite a bit of unrest during any time like this, and at 50 I can name you several markets already that have been like this or worse for much longer periods than this week or so we've had. -
LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
The basic question is are we ok with them selling us products from ripped off IP cheaper than anyone else can make it? Some of that cost is due to labor savings, but a lot is due to the fact that they steal IP at will and without repercussions. You're right it will have disruption to us, and maybe there's a more gentle way to maneuver into it, but we need to be very very hesitant to leave any of our critical supply chains in China. -
I have Cancer :/ -- now not so great, new nodule 3/18/25
Mark Davis replied to jerryskids's topic in The Geek Club
Glad things went well Jerry, hang in there! -
I think she's pretty attractive, not a 10 by any means but I probably find her more attractive than most here have.
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Time to get the sideline cash warming in the bullpen
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I never reported anyone on any message board, FBG, FFT, or otherwise. I always figured we were adults and if I got my feelings hurt by someone on a message board then that said more about me than it did about them.
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🌈 Tranny track athlete wins varsity girls competition after previously placing last against JV boys 🌈
Mark Davis replied to Maximum Overkill's topic in The Geek Club
Pitiful all around. I looked at the heat sheets for my daughter's meet this upcoming weekend, she has a friend who is in the high jump. I wasn't familiar with what heights they were doing so I had to look it up. Top seed height is 5'6" for the HS girls here. 4'8" would get in a 12 way tie for the 29th seed out of 49 entrants so far. Even more striking, 44 HS boys entered the high jump. None below 5'0" feet here. Anyone below is in the JV meet. -
At the end it was a joke it was so soft. I got a perma ban the night of the Paris terrorist attacks for daring to say it was obviously a Muslim extremist. Gee, I wonder how that turned out.
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What I try to tell people is the mistake I admit I made in 2008. I went cash on some 401K funds, and I kept making money as the market dropped, well, until then it didn't. You always think in bad times it's going lower, and momentum wise says most days you are right. The problem is the downside of not being able to buy back in is greater than waiting for the adjustment to work it's way through the market. I used to have a spreadsheet that told me how much that cost me (it's exponential as time goes on because you are rebuying fewer shares if you have to re-enter higher) but that isn't great for the mental health. I just used it as a lesson to not repeat. I've had grad school level finance too, but just like gambling on sports, you sometimes think you know better.
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LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
From a market standpoint I don't think this is over. Even short term pullbacks tend to have relief rallies and then more dramatic falls. Lower highs and deeper lows. Shakes out the weak hands. Unfortunately these are the type things that tend to cost individuals who watch their balance daily and when it gets to where they just can't take it anymore, they sell, and never are able to re-enter the market anywhere near the price they sold. If it's longer term and deeper, it could be a good opportunity to deploy cash. -
LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
I'm not disputing anything you posted. But the alternative is we do nothing. There's not a plan from Democrats to address this other than opposing Trump. So by default it's this or status quo. If we agree the playing field is not level, this is only partially addressing it, but it is starting to do so. At least Biden did not reverse the tariffs on China when he was in office. One thing that is a possibility, how often does the government willingly let go of revenue? I'd like to see the projections and actual (when available) of what flows into the government from these. It's not going to be small and by default the deficit is going to be reduced. But I agree short term it could be bad. The American public I have next to no faith in as far as having the stomach to stick through turbulent waters if they come and therefore is politically perilous for Trump and Republicans. -
LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
That's the part I struggle to get people to understand. Yes it will take some prices higher because it will cost more to make things here or it will cost more for things that can't be ramped up here in the short term or just that cannot be made more cheaply here than the alternative offshore with the tariff. But it does promote domestic production and the tax income from that, as well as all the tariff revenue. It's a use tax. Those extra dollars in cost aren't just going poof, they are going into the government coffers that will reduce the deficit/debt. Short term it definitely can be inflationary, but longer term we are much better off to have a more level playing field. We've let trade get way out of hand and that is a large part of why we have the debt that we do. All these political arguments are just that, they are debates on whether Trump can sustain the will to implement these over what short term reactions to prices might be. Longer term we have to fix the issue and nobody can tell me how else that happens. -
These gimmick stocks I stay far away from. It's tempting to try to get in there and stick it out for the duration of what you know is right, but the problem with shorts is there is no cap on the loss you can accrue and you can be forced to fund the account to help cover the loss trying to wait it out.
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Commodities, specifically oil, are very tough to trade. You have the whole factor of holding the product. Remember that time a barrel of oil started trading negatively? Basically people had no way to store the production. Who wouldn't take free oil? Well, the problem is where you store it. When I tried, there was an ETF I think USO was the ticket that was the best tracker I could do for oil.
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It's all good until the margin calls start coming. That's how these things gain steam. Just brute force collecting more shares than shorts can buy back. There's no way the value is legit, but it doesn't mean they can't break people first.
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LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs
Mark Davis replied to The Real timschochet's topic in The Geek Club
I wish there were zero tariffs. But unless we are trying for something more than reciprocal treatment and an even playing field, I think long term this is a fair way to approach it. I do agree short term prices can/will increase because we no longer have the production base domestically that we used to. Long term, we need to fix it so that our goods are treated fairly abroad. Whether the voters have the stomach to get through it, I don't know. But if we don't, we can have lower prices short term but long term our problem will still exist. -
To me Super Macho Man was tougher than Tyson. Once you got Tyson down you should consistently beat him. Super Macho Man had that reverse spin punch that would catch me still occasionally. When I originally was playing as a kid, Soda Popinski hung me up awhile too.
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Haha, yeah my wife told me she was younger, I wasn't expecting like a college cheerleader looking girl doing flips etc. I walked in from it and said, "well you told me", to which my wife responded "yeah I know, she's hot"
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My best option trades in choppy markets have been selling out of the money puts on stocks I want to own. That way either I collect the premium and move on, or I get to own the stock for substantially less than it is today, where I already value it.
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Got a friend who had a son with Downs, they had two older daughters. He used to play in our weekly poker game. This was just after my first daughter was born so been about 14 years ago. He hasn't played more than a handful of times over those 14 years and none in recent years. Pretty much as soon as he leaves work he's headed home to be with his son. The time commitment can't be overestimated.
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When my youngest daughter was in three year old preschool I took her to a birthday party. She was born a few months before I turned 40. The mom of the girl having the birthday had her at 18 I think. So I go into the jump zone place where the party is and there is this cheerleader looking girl doing flips and everything. Figure I got there too early or whatever. She comes down off the thing and introduces herself as the mom. At most she had to barely be 21 and I had started to gray. That made me feel old.
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No, but if that's the only grammatical misspeak I make today I'll be under my average
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My wife had our daughters when I was 35 and 39. But I more have experience here from the child's point of view. My dad was 52 and mom 42 when I was born. I was an only child, they assumed they couldn't have kids, then at that late age they had me. There are pros and cons. My dad, although he lived to be 98 and had great health, never could play ball much with me beyond just the standard tossing the baseball etc. Physically it was tougher on them no doubt. But they were also more financially stable. And while we weren't well off, for where I grew up we certainly were on the better side of things. They were set in life, not a lot of drama, good stable upbringing. Like someone else mentioned, there are more risks as you get older. Even back when I was born there were some tests they could do and at some point the doc asked my mom did she really need the tests and what would she do if something were wrong. They decided to just go forward and luckily everyone was healthy.
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Transgender runner blows out competition, he sets season records in girls' races at Oregon high school track meet 🌈
Mark Davis replied to Maximum Overkill's topic in The Geek Club
I have a daughter who runs track as a distance runner. She’s not a threat to win the state or anything but she was the only one in her class to run varsity this year at every meet as a freshman. Our school is in the largest classification in the state and the best region for track and field, xc, all the running sports. The difference in her time and a boy who finishes about the same spot as she does in varsity meets is about an entire minute in the 1600m (1 mile). We have a freshman guy who is in about her same spot as she is just on the boys side. If he ran in the girls races he would win the state meet if he ran his best that day. He won’t even qualify for our sectionals though in the boys division. Another reference point is we have a senior girl who got a D1 scholarship to run distance who runs the 1600 in the 5:20s. So clearly she’s pretty good in the girls division, will qualify for our state finals meet which is top 16 qualifiers in the state. This freshman boy who I mentioned earlier and is pretty good for a freshman but very average in varsity standings and has run some junior varsity for us broke 5:00 on the 1600 already this year. It’s not even a question of if the boys are better but more if you are a male and can’t win track meets against females you really aren’t any good at it. To say it’s unfair to allow males to compete against females in track is an understatement.