p00h

this might be the dumbest logic i have ever encountered. Because you finished no worse than 3rd place in 9 years in 2 leagues, and you've never had harrison once, he is not as good as advertised?!? You need to go back to grammar school and learn simple logic...

well if you go back and read what I state, I state very clearly that in the 'long run' you will lose. I don't want to get into my personal experiences, but I'll share one ancedote. Mid 90s, yankees won 9 out of every 10 games they played one year. I think they went something like 31-3 for a stretch. I was on a hot streak like crazy. It literally cost 3-1 to bet the yanks, 2-1 if you wanted to lay a run and a half. Even with those odds, I ammased a 40k bankroll in a month. Not on an internet offshore account either, cask from the local book who put the action to a book 1 level above him, etcetcetc. All going to basically the same sports book fund up in the sky somewhere. 40k in cash in my hands. Did it last?!? No. I had fun for a month or 2. Gave it all back, and then some. So when you say, check what philly is doing, its documented etc. Thats all fine and good. You guys can make a run as long for a few weeks, or as 4 years in a row, it is very feasible. But if you're in it for life, when that life is coming near end, I assure you that you will be in the red. Whether you bet once a month, 4 times a week or 8 games a night, baseball, football, soccer, field hockey, college, pro, whatever. That is a fact. That fact is supported by another fact. That fact is that sports booking is a multi BILLION dollar business. You think you got the system. If you had THE SYSTEM, you'd be a billionare right now, and no book would be taking your action. For every SYSTEM, you think you have, 10000 other knuckleheads out there have their system. I went through many. So don't sit there high and mighty believing I'm some schmuck that had a bad run at gambling, and I'm raining on your parade. I go to GA meetings twice a week. That is what compels me to preach on as I am doing. If my message doesn't get through your head, that's your perrogative. If it gets through just one other person's head, than the few minutes I took to type this up is well worth it. So again, I wish you no ill will. Quite the opposite, I wish you the best of wills. I hope you all live to be 110 years old, filthy rich...

That much we can agree on! Like I said, go on about your business. I wish you no harm. If you're turning a profit on sports gambling, more power to you. In the long run, you won't. So unless you're ready to bounce with that bankroll you've ammased since august, expect to lose it back and then some. That is a fact...

because I'm trying to give a counterpoint to individuals that might actually buy into these moronic theories and start throwing their money away like you guys. THis is a message board, if you don't like others interacting in your circlejerks, register a domain, put your own board up and make it invite only... PS: I've forgot more about gambling than you'll ever know. Systems, that's a good un. I went through that phaze in 1989 my son. Didn't work then, ain't gonna work now... dude whether you place 3-5 bets a week or 3-5 bets a night, when you're lying on your death bead, you will be lucky to be at 50%. Do what you want, I'm not trying to preach to you. I'm simply trying to educate thsoe that don't bet a different perspective. Morons come on here with their 'line moved this way, i'm fading the public' bullshit all day long, and it is all a myth. Show me someone that has made money betting on sports and I'll show you a liar. Sure there is that 1 in 10 million cat that just has a knack for handicapping, but I doubt any of you guys are that 1. If you were, you wouldn't be sitting on a FF message board talkin junk about your 5 times plays. So go about your business, your loss of money aint takin food off my table. I just want to make sure those that do not gamble but are considering it based on these ridiculous theories you guys are hovering around understand that it's bullsh!t...

some pwnage here! I think he as a minimum of 2 years left at the current rate of production. I beleve even beyond that a couple of years he will be very near current rate of production. key is, he is not a receiver that relies solely on his speed, never been a burner. So what is he gonna lose? His precise route running combined with the best qb in the history of the game throwing to him combined with the always dynamic nature of the offense(read can't double anyone really) means he will keep on doing what he's doing. I say 1000+ and 8 tds is a lock for the next 4 years, barring injury ofcourse. He's gonna start gettin at rice's records soon...

this is a very interesting point. While I don't disagree with you, I also do not completely agree with it either. What I'm saying is, that slight disadvantage that may or may not be had at going 6, vs going 1 or 12 can be negated via the 'luck factor' that most FFers argue incessantly over every year. Also 'straying from the norm' would give an edge to #6. What I'm saying is, if all 3 are equally skilled in FF, then the popular consensus at 6 would be to go for RB. Whether that was edge, Ronnie brown, SJax, or Rudi. Now, the lucky guy might have got Sjax, as opposed to the edge. Also, that luck is not limited to the 1st round. In the 2nd, he might have got Willie Parker, or he might have got Westbrook, or...he might have got Caddilac. Or Willis Mcghaee. And taht goes on and on for the next however many rounds... the other part is straying from the norm. While most FF geeks would opt for a rb there, he might ahve grabbed peyton, avoiding the clusterF that is ronnie brown or edge. Then in the 2nd, he might have strayed from the norm and grabbed Steve Smith, opting to wait till the 3rd to get a rb(chester) then grabbing say fred taylor fred taylor and gore in later rounds. This is the scenario that played out for me in one of my drafts, and as soon as i took steve smith, i was condemned to last place. No rb in 1st 2 rounds, you're done. Guess what, i'm in 2nd place in that league... So to sum up what many are saying, while there is a distinct edge to going early in the 1st, over the duration of a draft many factors including luck and style of drafting will even out the playing field. Or you can end up with mcnabb in the 3rd after grabbing LT in teh 1st and tory holt in teh 2nd, thus being a dominant force. It can go either way. If you paly with competitent competition, no one team should be a monster based on draft position. They might end up with a monster based on skills, luck, drafting technique, etc, but not based on position, not in a serpentine...

I drafted SA #1 in one league, cuz i got him at 3 in another and i wanted to root for the same guy as opposed to SA and LT. Think about how I feel! Also, if you are drafting, use serpentine. While LT might be getting 40 pts a game, someone else might have westy and Steve smith gettting them a total of 50, where as the 2nd round guy on the LT team might be getting him just 10, averagnign both teams out to 50 pts, dig?!? I know the big dogs usually go off the chart every year, and is it really fair to have the season decided by who got 1st pick. However, guys with the 1st pick don't always win. It's not like they're scoring enough to offset 1/2 of the opposing team. Gotta take it for what it's worth, using unnatural caps and scoring systems will only take the fun out of playing...

smartest thing posted in this entire thread. I've said this before and I'll say it again. There is no lock way to make money. All these theories, in theory, will end up at 50% if you play for the next 1000 years. Guess what, you're laying 10% juice, the worst of probably any gambling. You lay like 2% in blackjack, less than that if you play craps the optimal way. You might catch a streak in the short run, but you will just as easily catch a losing streak as well. All this tin foil conspiracy sh!te is a joke, naive to buy into any of it. Take every favorite over a long stretch, take every dog over a long stretch, take every like that moves late, go against that late movement, take every green colored uniform team etcetcetc, and bet it enough, you'll go to 50%. End of story. Keep throwing that 10% juice away, that's what the multi BILLION dollar industry is built on...

funny thing about keeper leagues is people always look at the big picture, the long run. That is all fine and good, but if you ahve a shot to win something in a particular year, you have to make some moves that jeopardize the long term prospect. Having said that, if you seriously believe you can contend for a championship this year, I would make that move. SA is more and more becoming a total question mark for this year. Even when he gets back, who's to say he won't be rusty? Morgage a part of the future if you think you can do it this year. Also, chestor has proved to be a pretty solid back with a heavy workload this year, so it aint like you're trading SA for a chris brown or something, someone you have no idea where they'll be next year and in what capacity. Chestor has cemented himself as the starter in Minn for atleast a year or 2 to come...

offensive line woes aside, martz will make a horrible head coach, wherever he goes, whatever team he inherits. He can go to the cotls right now, and some how fudge up that team. He is a moron extraordinare, outside the scope of scheming up crazy offense. He has no other skills, not 1 other skill needed to be a head coach. And that's just from a football perspective. As a man, he is very lacking also. he had crazy drama with his team, to a point where he needed the owner to write him a note stating he was in charge so he can show his palyers. Are you kidding me. The guy is a moron, and will be so till the day he dies. All you need to see is the look in his eyes, the look of a moron...

raiders will be trading down with the lions. I believe the lions have their eyes on jeff samardjiza!!!

you can throw in another wr, far superior in stats than gabriel, and the trade is still a dump. I'd punch the boss in the face in front of both his family and his secretary(mistress)

its arguable which one of their massive drafting mistakes was the most massive, but I believe we can all agree going wr 1st round 3 years running was the dumbest thing ever, considering the supporting cast aroudn those wrs. Ironically, furrey is the best wr outside of roy they've had in the past few years, and he came on board as a free agent! Man you can't make this sh!t up if you had stephen king locked in your basement...

DEEZ NUHHHHHTTTTZZZZZZZZZ!

mnnn, beefey!

its a good thing you disclosed that you will help others if they leave a link, cuz I wan't going to post in here if that wasn't the case... Here's your link, please help! http://www.cindymargolis.com/photos.cfm

hahaha. he does actually look mildly retarded. Or like he had a stroke and half his face is frozen or something!

i too am annoyed, read about it here...

need 8 pts from djax, 80 yards or td and 20 yards in 1 league, very feasible... other league is tough. need 8 from momo, either 160 yards, or a td and 40 yards, both scenarios being unlikely...

i'm down 8, i need 40 yards and a td to tie, 60 yards and a td to win. Only hope is if they get down inside the 3 yardline, and they give it to him twice. Seneca might get a run down there too, which sux. I'm pretty much conceding a loss...

i have the same delima, except to chose between momo and fargas! Ugh. Is jordan definately back to the starting role?!? I'm figuring MOMO has to do something this week, but if fargas is starting i'd opt for him isntead...

que es dealio?!?

danka!

With tatum's status up in the air, would you start both FT and MDJ or would you plug one of them in and throw in addai instead? Last week I started MDJ instead of FT, and lost by 5 pts! I don't want to get burned by the wrong one there again, and looks like they're gonna run the F out of the ball. Any thoughts?!?

taylor and MDJ are both probable with dings. Effin addai is gonna go off for 160 and 2 if I do it, and garrard will definately run 2 in and throw 1 to a tackle(eligible ofcourse) Jags are douche!