bostonlager

You have to give it to us. Not too many degenerates on this planet that play in a fantasy golf league for half a grand.

Lance Lynn is a coin flip. Sometimes he sits guys down and other times he pitches to contact. Unless I missed something in the game log, AZ hasn't seen him this year. Lance Lynn o 3.5 K -145

Denver at Kansas City Javonte Williams u 36.5 rushing Kadarius Toney u 3.5 receptions Jerry Jeudy o 4.5 receptions

We all left out one major rule - Have fun. A few of us take this to a Dungeons and Dragons type nerd level. You don't have to do that.

I hope we didn't scare kilroy off

Kilroy - That brings us to bankroll management. 2 rules 1. Learn self control - if you drink, bet the same way drunk as you would sober. If you can't, you will have to quit drinking or wagering. The reason for this is because you should NEVER CHASE. If you have a bad day, its a bad day and you get em tomorrow. Never get drunk and place all of your bankroll on some stupid -4000 moneyline to win back a few pennies. 2. Each bet you place should be 1% of your bankroll. If you have $1000 and you take the 49ers -6 ... you're putting 10 bucks on them. This is much like playing poker. You will go card dead or have bad streaks. Keeping wagers at a smart level keeps you from going bust.

I haven't had a rail since 12/27/22, but with the air getting a little colder I'm in the mood.

Kilroy - I just placed a few bets for week 6 and I didn't care who the teams were, I was focused on the numbers. At bovada right now we have the following: Bears +2.5 Texans +1.5 Redskins +2.5 Chargers +1.5 The two numbers we are worried about are 3 and 7 - the most common point differentials in all NFL football games going back to 1995 . If I tease the teams above by 6 points I am able to push past both of those numbers so I placed 6 - two team teasers. I don't care who they are playing or where they are playing. Road teams do usually do better and I usually leave out teams where the game has a total of 50 or more, but I took the Chargers anyways. They aren't going to hit every time, but they will be long run profitable. If you're serious and want to churn a profit you need to get into the mindset that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Ultimately, you want to get to props because picking side and totals on the NFL is a suckers game. Here are my numbers for this season so far. I'm a little disappointed I'm at 54, because I prefer to be around 60, but it is what it is and good luck finding someone that can beat me at props. (I did have a mentor that used to post here and he can smoke me, but thats beside the point). I'm arrogant about it and do apologize. Do some wonging and make some money and then we can dive into the prop process. Week 1: 11-7 Week 2: 7-14 Week 3: 20-11 Week 4:14-13 Week 5: 16-12 Season to date: 68-57 (.544)

Next year let’s do a separate guillotine league for $25. Sounds like a edjr 8-ball good time.

This is great if you’re in a pick em pool at work. We aren’t going to use it much in here. One of the things you need to do with wagering is forget you know anything about football. We want to focus on numbers more than what happens between the sidelines. The most successful sports bettors never watched a game in their life. I’m on my phone right now but will expand on this thought later this evening.

@kilroy69 - read this. If you want to walk before you crawl - start here. I still play these every week while I'm doing my prop plays. https://www.covers.com/nfl/teaser-strategy

Don't let me talk you out of betting the 9ers. I'm just saying I wouldn't do it, but I have a 45% chance of being wrong.

Did you see a scenario where a Zach Wilson led Jets team would keep it to a 3 point game against KC a couple weeks ago? Did you see an 8 point dog Colts team beating Baltimore on the road? Again - The 49ers could very well beat them by 50. If they were at home, I would maybe bet them .I don't like road favorites though. San Francisco is not going undefeated and they are off a huge win again a rival which is perfect for a let down game. Go back a page or 2 and see what I posted about the Jacksonville/Buffalo game this past week. Possible same scenario.

Happy birthday, KSB!!!

My first bet for SF/CLE is Jerome Ford u 41.5 rushing yards or whatever they set his line at when props are released.

If I was going to bet this game at all -I would wait to see if it gets to 10.5 and take Cleveland.

Las Vegas most likely wants you to bet SF this weekend. Smells like a trap game.

@Fireballer Let us know when you get some figures on what percentage of money and bets are on the 49ers this weekend. Thanks in advance.

Projections I'm seeing now have this as an 8 point game. Projections are like butttholes - they usually stink, but laying 5.5 is too rich for my blood on a side bet. I'll have a full slate of props though.

There's a trillion or so light bulbs in the middle of the desert in Nevada. The guys who put those lights there, likely want you to bet San Francisco this weekend.

The 49ers could very well win this game 50-0, but sh1t can happen in the NFL.-Injuries, fluke turnovers, etc. Especially on the road and against a good defensive team like Cleveland. Not a game I want to risk my money on.

Good looking out Justin. This could very well be a winner, but it breaks 3 of my wagering commandments and therefore I will have to pass. 1. Don't bet sides or totals 2. Don't give points on the road 3. Don't bet west coast teams coming east and playing in the 1:00 slot.

Week 6 Start 3 David Montgomery Kenny Walker Isaiah Pacheco Jonathan Taylor Zack Moss.

Good game, buddy

Looks pretty cool. I'm Toyota guy though.