fantasymind

Good original post...A couple of quick hits in response: 1. AP will probably be ranked number 1 prior to just about every draft, regardless of format---in a PPR, he shouldn't be. I think people have a real hard time separating themsevles from the fact that, even though he is probably the best RB in football right now, his PPR value is more in the 4-7 range than the number one overall. I like MJD, Forte, and Chris Johnson better in PPR format---there is no overstating just how valuable a back who catches 5-8 balls a game is in this format. Hell, a healthy Reggie Bush is more valuable in this format, and no one would argue that he is in the same class as AP in terms of NFL Rbs. AP will likely be taken number one in everyone's draft, mostly because people will be too intimidated to go against the group think and make the right PPR choice. 2. I like that you aren't high on LT (I'm not either), but, I think he has to fit somewhere in the lower half of the top 16...assuming you are not predicting injury, he will see too many touches not to rank at least that high. 3. Take out Ryan Grant, bump everyone up, and put in Leon Washington. I don't like Grant to maintain a full workload for the whole season and to catch enough balls for it to matter. I think the Jets just started to scratch the surface with Leon last year, and they will use him in a more primary role this season, giving him 15-18 touches a game...assuming an average of 4 receptions per contest, and with his homerun capability, I think Leon will make a sneaky #2 Rb this season. I like your Felix Jones pick for many of the same reasons. 3. Not having Wes Welker in your top 16 Wrs in a PPR? I call blasphemy...Welker is the perfect #1a/2...he catches 6-8 balls consistently week to week, nets between 60-90 yards, and has the occassional game where he blows up for 11-121...While his Td total is not going to be huge, I'll take Welker's steady hand over some of the more boom or bust guys on the list you gave (Vincent Jackson, Ochocinco, Roy Williams)...While I'm at it, go ahead and remove those three guys from your list and replace them with Welker, Eddie Royal, and...Devin Hester. Hester is a stretch, for sure, but, with Cutler slinging it, I'll gamble on him instead of Roy E. Williams--I understand all of the reasons not to (Dallas' high powered passing offense, Chicago's run-based offense, past performance, etc.), but, I love Hester's talent with the ball in his hands, and I think this is the year that Chicago figures out all of the ways they can go about doing that. I envision Hester having 82-1100-8, with a punt return or two thrown in for good measure. I think Hester is the next in the Steve Smith/Derek Mason mold, guys who started as strictly return men who morphed into upper tier wideouts. 4. Drop Carson Palmer, bump everyone up one and put Matt Ryan at #10 on my list. Year two, a solid running game and the addition of a new redzone/middle of the field threat in Tony Gonzalez make me a Matty Ice believer. Plus, Carson burned my azz last season, so screw him and his tennis elbow. I also think a healthy Schaub probably cracks the top ten---just not totally sold on him staying healthy.

Poor choice of wording on my part, but my point remains...instead of young, I should have said fresh (3 seasons pro for Jackson, 2 for Lynch)...But yeah, Jackson is older

I was very surprised to see the Saints use a fifth round draft pick on a punter (of all things) when there was a Rb still available that seemed to fit EXACTLY what the Saints are presently lacking---a big, bruising runner to pick up tough yardage inside. Rashad Jennings, 6'1 231 pounds, would have appeared to fit the bill nicely for the Saints. In fact, many analysts pegged Jennings to be a 2nd-3rd rounder, projecting him to go shortly after the Wells/Moreno/Brown triumverate were taken. The non-selection of Jennings indicates a couple of things to me: 1. The Saints might truly be fine with using Pierre Thomas in the Deuce role, while Reggie maintains the hybrid role they have pretty well-established for him. Unless they sign a veteran free agent during camp to compete (no real bangers come to mind immediately as possibilities for this, either), it appears that they will roll with PT and Reggie...PT will then probably be the guy to own in standard leagues, while Reggie will remain a PPR stud when healthy. 2. Possibly unrelated to the Saints, but something about Rashad Jennings must have really scared teams off during the draft. Whether it was his playing for a small school (Liberty), his lack of top end explosiveness, or something else entirely, Jennings falling to the seventh round was very surprising, given how high some of the "experts" were on him leading up to the draft. The Saints passed on him for a punter---that speaks volumes to me. Especially considering that Payton went out of his way on Day Two to talk about how the Saints had tried for hours to move back into the first round to take Beanie Wells, the back probably most comparable in size to Jennings. Who knows...maybe they'll sign Christian Okoye or Marion Butts during camp and completely reshape my opinion on the situation yet again...

With the first pick in the NFL draft, the Detroit Lions select Matthew STANDFORD, Pioneer Camps Program and Ministry Coordinator....They would have been better off taking another wide-out, cause I doubt that guy is the answer...

Hope my post wasn't taken as "parade raining"...I am pumped up too...I initially responded to your post because Tennessee was one of the first couple of teams I checked out after my "home team" and thought about how their schedule looked like one that could be filled with traps by the end of the year...I also feel like the AFC South could shape up to be surprisingly strong top to bottom this season, which could lead to some good teams on the outside looking in at the playoffs come end of the year...

While I concur that the schedule looks mighty tantalizing for the Titans after the BYE week, going 2-4 prior is a very distinct possibility...even based on your predictions, a loss to Indy and any of the Hou/Jets/Jax trio would lead to that...That would then mean needing to basically go 8-2 after the bye, which would require wins that I don't see as being givens at this point (Indy, Arizona, and San Diego jump out at me as possible losses, with Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston not sure things either)...Not trying to hate, but, I think Tennessee has quite a few question marks themselves (Collins throwing to ? and the necessity of a full year of good health for Chris Johnson to name two) to think that 13-3 again is a lock...If I were to make a prediction, I would probably go 9-7 with a good shot at 10-6.

Call a friend and ruin the surprise for them...

I guess I should clarify my brief "No LT cause he is done" statement in an earlier post. What I guess would be more accurate for me to say is that I think LT is done producing at a level worthy of the draft pick it will require to obtain him. Based on his name value and past glory, he is a guy that someone will spend a late first/early second rounder on...I just don't think that is great value for a guy who I believe has lost (at least) a step. The best case scenario is, obviously, that he reverts to his 2007 form, making drafting him with a late first round pick great value. The worst case scenario is that his career path continues to mimic that of most top-tier backs in recent years (the "soup" years, followed by one significant drop-off year, followed by an immediate decline and end of career-Alexander, Faulk, et al.) I tend to feel that LT's situation will be closer to the worst case rather than the best case, meaning that I don't believe he will be a good value pick this season. If he were around in the mid-late third round (which I know he won't be, but, if...), then I think his value would match his risk...As it stands now, I would much rather take a guy who is on the upswing, career wise, if I am going to roll the dice in the first round <which is not something I typically like to do to begin with..."your league is not won in the first round, but it can be lost there" is my philosophy>. This season, LT falls under the category of players I classify as "someone else's headache"...Just my take on it...

PPR redraft 1. Maurice Jones Drew 2. Adrian Peterson 3. Matt Forte 4. Chris Johnson 5. Larry Fitzgerald 6. Randy Moss 7. Deangelo Williams 8. Michael Turner 9. Calvin Johnson 10 Andre Johnson 11. Brian Westbrook 12. Steven Jackson MJD edges Adrian Peterson based on the ppr format...I see MJD being used in a Westbrook-type role in Jax, which should result in some huge numbers. I rank the four receivers that highly because, outside of the four rbs I have ranked in front of them, I believe all four of them are safer, more stable choices in a PPR format than most of the remaining Rbs. No Qbs make it because I think it is going to be a deep position this season with good value later in the draft. I don't see a clear cut first round choice at Qb (Brees is probably closest, but there are a lot of guys who could be just as productive). The second batch of Rbs all have the potential to end up top-3, but also all have questions marks entering the season that make them guys who I'd rather have be someone elses headache. Westbrook and Jackson round out the top 12 based on the fact that, when healthy, they are probably one-two in a ppr format...an aging Westbrook and a seemingly always dinged Jackson make them high-risk/high reward guys...Just missed: Frank Gore, Steve Slaton. No LT--I think the end is here for one of the best of all-time.

I recognize there have been a lot of threads devoted to breaking down the rookie Rb class of '08 and praising the immediate impact that many of these guys had last season. I apologize in advance if this is a topic that has already been beaten to death, but, with an eye towards the future, what are some of your thoughts on which of these guys ends up with the best overall career when it is all said and done. Not necessarily from a fantasy perspective (although it would be likely that the fantasy numbers would be there as well), but, from an overall body of work perspective. In essence, which of these guys (if any) will be thought of as an all-time great when it is all said and done? Here are the runners, with my own spin on their prospects for long-term career success: Matt Forte- Only show in town in Chicago as it stands...does that last? Also, proved to be a "do everything" type back...do the large volume of touches lead to an early breakdown? Chris Johnson- Most agree that the sky seems to be the limit for CJ...but...does his small stature lead to a shortened career? Being a speed runner, an injury to one of his wheels could spell an early end for Flash. Also, will he remain a 15-20 touch back or does he transition into the "Westbrook" type of smaller back who carries the entire load? Steve Slaton- Great rookie year, but, many seem to mention the notion that, based on his smallish size, he could be a one year wonder...Do the Texans stick with him long term or does he become a committee back, maybe as early as this season? Jonathan Stewart- Physically dominant and solid production as a rookie...does he take the reins and become the centerpiece of the Panther offense or does he remain the bruiser in a committe for the better part of his career? Darren McFadden- Unsuccessful, injury plagued rookie year...trend or fluke? Does the Oakland offense ever find its way enough for him to truly shine...I think this season will be a true indicator of his long term potential...If he stays stuck behind Fargas for this season, I have my answer. Rashard Mendenhall- A true wildcard whose early injury did not allow for a true evaluation...Is in a great offense to succeed--does he put last season behind him and become a franchise back? Or, does he remain in a time share with Parker and whoever else the Steelers bring in once Parker is done? Kevin Smith- Does he build on his solid season last year or is he a stop-gap back who is replaced in the coming seasons by a more explosive playmaker? Other- There are some other talented backs not mentioned (Felix Jones, Ryan Torain, Tashard Choice, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Tim Hightower)...do one of these lesser regarded backs become a standout talent in the coming years? As for my own opinion, from a pure talent standpoint, I want to lean towards Chris Johnson. His speed/vision combination is as impressive as I can recall since early LT. BUT...watching him get bent backwards against Baltimore and not return to the game, I am somewhat leery of his ability to withstand the pounding required to be considered an all-time great RB. That said, I am going to go out on a limb a bit and say Jonathan Stewart will be the most highly regarded of this class when it comes time to look back. He plays in an offense that is RB-friendly, he has the size to withstand the long-term beating, and he showed flashes of talent his rookie season that makes me beleive he will end his career being thought of as this generations Jerome Bettis, yet with more versatility. DeAngelo Williams is certainly a road block at this point in his career, but, I don't envision the two of them remaining in Carolina for the long-term. So...what say you all?

Interesting notion regarding Bennett and Cutler's history together at Vanderbilt...During the one season they played together (2005, Bennett's first at Vandy), Bennett put up arguably his best statistical year, catching 79 balls and 9 tds... Combine that with, if I am not mistaken, the fact that there has been quite a bit of talk the past couple of weeks regarding the "surprising" move of Bennett to number two on the depth chart at receiver opposite Hester...Coincidence maybe? Or, possible proof that the Bears were planning for some time to make a move for Cutler and were attempting to groom his former running mate to be "ready and in position" to take on a significant role in a Cutler-led passing attack? While there is still plenty of time for things to shake out differently, I'll go out on a limb and say that Bennett will morph into this year's "sexy, under the radar pick" over the next few months and get alot of (unproven at this point) run from the "experts" as THE late round receiver to steal.

I didn't get the chance to watch a lot of Falcons games this past season, so, I saw Roddy putting up numbers, mostly from afar, without really getting to evaluate him in their offense, to a great extent. The one game I did watch and can evaluate was the Wild Card playoff game against Arizona. Roddy grabbed 11-84 and a Td, and, more strikingly, seemed to be targeted on almost every drop back during the game. Everything about that game SCREAMED franchise wideout to me...he was thrown at on short, medium and deep routes, they moved him all over the field, put him in motion, and generally showed a huge commitment to getting him the ball. Their use of him in that game, which I grant is too small a sample to base an entire season off of, was reminiscent of "the only show in town" receivers like Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson...receivers who teams are committed to force feeding the ball to. Based on that, the lack of viable receiving options opposite him in Atlanta, and based on the assumption that Ryan improves this season, I see last year's numbers as the floor for Roddy this season and will be targeting him in the late third/early fourth as a value pick with top 5 potential.

Not sure that I see much of a difference in Hixon's value if he were in Cleveland as opposed to where it stands currently in NY...If Braylon is traded away, that would make Hixon the #1 receiver, by default, on a Cleveland team with little firepower offensively..I would expect numbers similar to the numbers that whoever the #1 in, say a Jacksonville or an Oakland might put up as a best case option for him as a Brown. And that is assuming that Cleveland doesn't use an early round pick on a wideout like Britt, who comes in and takes away the go-to role right off the bat. Since Hixon was mediocre at best in the go to role down the stretch for the Giants, I am not sure why one would believe that a change of scenery to an offense with a less seasoned Qb and less help around him would be the recipe for statistical success. I guess a long-winded way to say that Hixon = meh, regardless of uniform, in my book.

Agree wholeheartedly and would even take it a step further...the top 8 is a crap shoot as well, as history would dictate that about half of them will end up underproducing as well. 8. Turner- huge workload this season...potential for breakdown? And, how much does the no receptions hurt as well? 7. DeAngelo- One hit wonder? Will Stewart steal more carries and scores? 6. Forte- Does he continue to be the only show in town? Did defenses start to figure him out, as his production tailed off at the end of the season? 5. CJ- Will Landwhale continue to snipe scores? Do teams take a page from the Ravens book and just try to bend and break him in half? 4. Gore- What improved from last season, when he was supposed to be top 5 because "Martz would have him catching 80 balls"? 3. Sjax- Will he continue the trend of missing the middle portion of the season and then producing at the end of the year to once again justify a top ten ranking for the following season? 2. MJD- How will he fare as the only show in town? 1. AllDay- Even the most sure of sure things has that lingering "runs so hard that he's bound to get hurt stigma" attached...is this the year? I guess the point this illustrates to me is that, in a ppr especially, a valid strategy can be to go WR-WR-Qb, roll the dice on some high upside RBs and hope for the best...AJohnson and CJohnson wideout pair, combined with a Brees/Brady/Manning and then taking some fliers on pass catching Rbs might be the ticket for me this year...

And the crowd goes mild...

Nice job...thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts on the upcoming draft. A few comments I would offer: *I predict Michael Crabtree will be this year's "Aaron Rodgers". Oakland passes on him and instead takes Heyward-Bey in what Kiper will label an "upset"-Davis loves the workout warriors and Heyward-Bey has the size/speed combo that makes old Al drool (more than normal anyways). Crabtree falls out of the top ten and teams start to fall over themselves trying to trade up to take him...wherever he lands gets the steal of the draft (Chicago or the Jets are my prediction). *I'll be shocked if the first back taken is all the way at #28. Wouldn't be surprised to see Moreno and Wells (in that order) go in the 10-20 range...maybe to New Orleans and Denver (not in that order)? Not that I agree with those two decisions, just that I believe they might happen. *I agree with the Stafford and Sanchez picks, but would be surprised to see Freeman go at 19. I see him going to Seattle at the top of Round 2. *Percy Harvin WILL be drafted in the first round. It is only a matter of which team pulls the trigger and how antsy a team that really wants him gets to make it happen. I see Indy making a serious play for him and wouldn't be shocked to see them move up a few spots if he is falling (particularly trying to jump ahead of Minnesota, who might also be interested). *Steelers go interior line with their pick, taking the BPA on either offensive or defensive line. They will address corner, but will take a couple of them in the later rounds. *I see Laurinaitis going to Baltimore instead of them going receiver. Drafting a motor guy who can learn under RayRay will take precedence over offensive help, since I believe the Ravens will be tempted to wait until round two since this is such a deep receiver draft. Still a ways to go and a lot can change, but, this is what makes the draft fun...Utter speculation that will probably prove to be all kinds of wrong when reviewed the Monday after draft weekend...

Two too high: Marshawn Lynch and LeSean McCoy In a ppr, Lynch was just mediocre last season, as Fred Jackson stole touches and receptions. While Lynch is young, so is Jackson, and he isn't facing potential league discipline for run-ins with the law. Even without that, I still view Lynch as a 15-18 type back in a ppr league. And, as has been stated, it is WAY too early to rank McCoy this high, considering we don't know what situation he finds himself in. It may end up being a prescient ranking, but, I'd wait and see how he is used and where he ends up before taking him over some proven ppr producers...<segue> Two too low: Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush Before you respond that Ronnie Brown has Ricky Williams stealing touches (just like Jackson with Marshawn), understand that I don't think Brown should be top ten. But, he is young, runs hard and scores in bunches. I see the Dolphins beginning to phase Ricky out this season, meaning Ronnie could be an every down back in the next year or two. Definitely worth a top 15 ranking, with the potential to be a top ten guy down the road. Whether you like him or not, Reggie is a ppr STUD. I know he has been hurt the past two seasons and he is a gamble because of the injury prone label he is earning, BUT...if he stays healthy, there are probably only four or five guys I'd rather have than him in a dynasty ppr. He is young, ultra-talented and catches the equivalent of a short td run per game, plus the coaching staff in New Orleans is always trying to find ways to get him the ball in space. He is proving a knack for finding the end zone (nearly a td per game in '08), and his ceiling is a lot higher than many of the guys above him on your rankings. I'd put him where you have Marshawn and hope for the best.

This is an interesting topic with a couple of different ways to look at things... If you are looking for the best season by a trio of receivers, the 2004 Colts walk away with it, imo. Wayne/Harrison/Stokely all had 60+ receptions, 1000+ yards and 10+ Tds...I don't think there is any other three receivers in a given season that can match those stats. BUT...with the question being what trio of receivers was the best in NFL history, and you are looking at things like overall talent of the players (subjective, no doubt), impact on the team and longevity of service together, than I think I tend to agree with the Moss/Carter/Reed posters. Ultimately, what makes this difficult is that we are left debating what team had the best third receiver in history, in essence. When it comes to duos, we could all make our case for Rice/Taylor, Holt/Bruce, Carter/Moss, Harrison/Wayne, Boldin/Fitz and on and on. It's when we look to find that duo who had a third complement that things get tricky. Third receivers haven't tended to be big stat producers over the years (important to the team but situational), so, finding a great trio requires finding a team (and scheme) that puts the third receiver on the field in stiuations other than third and long. The triplets that have been mentioned have all been from "spread offense" types, where the three-receiver set was basically the base package. Find the teams that run this offense to great success and you will find nominees for the title of best Wr trio in the league. FWIW, it will be interesting to see how history views the Boldin/Fitz/Breaston trio, especially if Boldin leaves and Breaston blows up in the next couple of years.

The catch-22 with Owens is this: He is too old to be counted on long term. Thus, teams that are rebuilding could only benefit from him for a couple of years, tops. So, since he is such a short term investment, rebuilding teams will (should?) decide to stay away. He is too divisive to be counted on short term. So, teams that are close to reaching the next level will stay away since they are too close to the next step to upset the apple cart by signing a 35 year old locker room malcontent. In essence, since teams that are close to reaching that next level are out, and teams that are rebuilding are out, it only leaves teams that don't recognize themselves as either as a landing spot...Oakland and Washington seem to me to be the two teams that fit that bill....

Pittsburgh is probably the LAST team in the league that would sign T.O. The organization has been predicated on a "team first, no one player is greater than the sum of its parts" mentality. The last thing the Super Bowl champions would do is sign a clubhouse cancer who could disrupt the chemistry that they have. The last prima-donna wideout they had was jettisoned as he was entering his prime (Plaxiglass)---why on Earth would they risk adding that same type of team pariah, especially given that Owens is on the downside of his career. I know you were probably trying to include five teams that have not really been "on the radar" as much and I think your inclusion of Indy and Chicago are spot on...But, in the end, I see Oakland or Washington being his final resting spots, since those two owners might be the only ones left to risk imploding the team on the off-chance that Owens behaves himself and puts up a quality season.

If you could guarantee a full season out of each guy, I would go Schaub, Cassel, Ryan. But, since durability is an issue that must be considered, I'll go: Cassel Ryan Schaub I think Cassel is more talented than Thigpen and KC will play to his strengths and continue running the shotgun-based offense, making him a second tier QB week to week (just a notch above what Thigpen was this year). 3500yds, 24tds, 16 ints. I think Ryan will be the winningest of the three and the top on-field general, but, for fantasy purposes, I still see Atlanta pounding the ball with Turner and co., with Ryan putting up Aikman-like numbers...3000+ yards 18-20 tds, low interception totals, high winning percentage. Winning NFL numbers but only spot start fantasy material. I see Ryan's situation as being similar to when Roethlisberger came into the league-a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback for (at least) the early portion of this career. I see Schaub starting out hot, being chased after by owners following the first three or four weeks, and then suffering some type of lingering injury that puts him in and out of the lineup for much of the rest of the season. He will tantalize during the weeks he plays, but will ultimately be too in and out of the lineup to count on. I'll say that he will have the highest per/game average of the three, but will miss too much time to be counted on throughout the season. While you can never predict injuries, the fact that Schaub has never started more than 11 games in his two years in Houston put him in the "show-me-first" category for me. 2900 yds, 17 tds, 10 ints.

Not sure if I would be happy as a Hawks fan if they are banking on Burleson as their deep threat...that hasn't worked the past three seasons. And, as far as going to the Bowl with that receiving corps, Shaun Alexander and his 27 Tds that season probably had a little to do with those receivers being successful and having some room to operate. Plus, I would argue that DJax was a deep threat in his four most productive seasons in Seattle (his second-fifth seasons, '01-04), averaging almost 15 ypc, averaging close to twenty receptions a season of 20 yards or more.

Not sure if this is confirmed yet, but, if true, I think this is a questionable move for Seattle. They are in need of a game changer on the outside, not essentially a younger version of Bobby Engram. While I think Housh is one of the better possession receivers in the league who could put up decent numbers for the Hawks, it just seems like a short-sighted fix for a team more in need of a long term answer on the outside. A 31 year old receiver can only be counted on to produce at a high level for 3-4 years max, especially one who goes over the middle as much as TJ does. I suppose if Seattle drafts a young burner who can stretch the field on the other side, this move might make more sense to me. I see Housh as more of a complimentary guy who fits best into an offense that has an established deep threat (I could see him being very successful opposite Berrian in Minnesota, for instance, depending on who was throwing the rock)...not sure that Seattle is that offense.

Not sure that I agree with the posters who are claiming that McNabb has been given every opportunity to succeed in Philly...In his entire time with the Eagles, he has only had ONE season where he was complimented by an upper-echelon receiver (Owens in '04---'05 shouldn't be counted in this debate, since T.O. played in only 7 games and talked himself out of town). That ONE season is the season McNabb led them to the Super Bowl. The fact that he has been able to guide Philly to the playoffs and the NFC championship game as frequently as he has with really only Westbrook as a top-line playmaker should not be overlooked. Charles Johnson, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, James Thrash, Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis. These were the leading receivers for Phily since 2000, excluding T.O....not exactly what I would consider top-tier. In fact, they could all most aptly be classified as journeymen in my opinion. Yes, I consider Curtis a journeyman, even though he had a nice season in '07. Donovan has his warts, to be sure...it's just that I think some are too quick to allow those flaws to define his career and to write him off entirely without giving him the credit he deserves for what he has accomplished in Philly.

Bubba also said they were meaty and delicious... And, I see Al Davis signing him and T.O....between Sundays, they will star in a wacky new reality show on VH-1 called "That's my Quarterback, Dog"...T.O. will cry, Vick will gamble on...aww, you get it. In all seriousness, I am not sold on Goodell immediately re-instating him....I could see a suspension being issued prior to his being allowed to resume his career. Some sort of disciplinary action would certainly not damage the image and tone that Goodell has set since taking over as commish.