fantasymind

I'd like to get Antonio Brown and may reach in my ppr...also love the upside of cooks on New Orleans and will reach for him

RBs are good for ppr, the rest is mostly trash...b Lloyd? Really?

I see TY Hilton being this year's Randall Cobb...second year guy who flashed electric skills as a rookie who takes the next step as a sophomore....75+ receptions, 8-10 tds and 1,000+ yds are what I see from him, making him the same great value at wr3 as Cobb was last year....

Stafford/Romo Newton Dalton/Eli Brady

10-3 most points, first place, first round bye 10 team ppr, no TE, start 1qb, 2rb, 3 wr Stafford/Romo AP/Alf Morris/Moreno Calvin/BMarsh/Julio/Cobb Tynes Denver D

In a heartbeat.. Shonne Greene is a mostly known commodity---a third tier guy who you hope has a decent game when you need to start him. Lloyd is a guy who has a ton of upside in the Pats offense---for his potential alone, I would do the deal without a question.

Cobb back in to field punt...bullet dodged

10 team ppr Charles in 4th AP in 5th Went Calvin, Julio and BMarsh first three...

The other Steve Smith getting any looks?

Not a GB homer, but Cobb has been getting all sorts of run for his play this summer and should end up being used out of the slot as the season progresses...Word is that the coaches are actively looking for ways to get the ball in this kids hands...

Not sure I see it that way...Combine Miami's piss-poor passing game last season with the fact that Marshall was the undisputed go to guy nearly whenever they did try to throw and I don't see how last season is any indication of Bess' potential for this season...If anything, I see his top end this year as BMarsh's numbers from last year...

The first two years of Spiller's career reminds me (tho not for the exact same reasons) of another highly drafted back who, after two seasons, showed flashes but was widely considered on his way to bustville...I had drafted him his first two years and was extremely disappointed...in year three, I found myself saying his name again in the fourteenth round, followed by, "I can't believe I am putting this turd on my squad for a third straight year!" That "turd' ended up being a key cog to winning a title that year named Darren McFadden. If Spiller doesn't put it all together this year, than call him Felix Jones 2.0...but, let's see if year three can be for him what it was for DMC...

Garcon Moore Amendola Crabtree Floyd

As a Little owner last season, my eyes told me no... However... You make some pretty good arguments using numbers---could be an interesting last receiver to stash on your roster...

Focus your remaining big money on a high upside Qb who you can get for Qb2 prices (a guy like Matt Ryan might not cost you QB1 money but could end up as a top 10), and a solid second tier Rb to pair with Murray (maybe a gamble on Charles if the price is right...or take a shot on Trent Richardson?)...Your top two receivers are great, so grab a guy like Eric Decker, Brandon Lloyd or Torey Smith if you can get them on the cheap...At TE, I don't think you have the money to really target Graham or Gronk, so focus that money on grabbing the best one at the best price...Gates on the cheap would be great, but I would probably look to grab Aaron Hernandez for a fraction of the Gronk price...

Agree below Brown...but, put him and Sidney Rice right next to each other at that spot...basically, the same guy---elite-level stuff when they play, they just don't ever seem to play...the hot tease at the bar...tricks get old after awhile...let someone else spend the money buying her drinks all night...you know she is going home alone...

Hall of Fame Fantasy Knucklehead Team--- Qb- Ryan Leaf Rb- OJ Simpson, Onterrio Smith (Wizzanator!), Lawrence Phillips, Bam Morris Wr- Rae Carruth, Donte Stallworth, Chris Henry (RIP, but, still...), Sam Hurd TE- Mark Chumura

I would look back in time as you plan to look ahead with Antonio Brown. Brown, as you mentioned, took over the Hines Ward role in this offense last season, and put up some decent numbers for an undrafted fantasy receiver. I think last season provides a decent glimpse as to what his floor might look like moving forward (69-1100-hardly any TDs)...as for his ceiling, I would look at Hines Ward from 2006-2009, 2006 being Ben's third season when things really started to click for him, until 2009, Ward's last season of top end production. Ward's best season saw 95-1167, yardage numbers similar to Brown's last season, but on 26 more catches. His Td totals for those seasons were 6,7,7,6. I think the TD numbers for Brown will hover right around those Ward numbers for the majority of his time in Pittsburgh---like Ward, a few seasons of TD outliers are possible (10-12 on any given season, but a career average of about 6/season)---The key then becomes whether you believe that Brown's solid y/rec avg of 16.1 last season can be maintained moving forward. If so, and if he can bump up from the 70 to the 90 catch range, you are looking at a 90-1450-6 season, numbers that are certainly top 10 numbers in PPR leagues. The change to the new Haley offense may make the Ward comparison moot moving forward, but, if you believe that Brown is Hines Ward v2.0 in Pitt, I wouldn't sell him for very many guys, especially at the price he is costing you to keep him.

This is an interesting list, as I am planning to eschew Rbs in my PPR league until probably the 4th round this year, so I have been looking at this group carefully to determine who the value pick guys are. There is a decent/good chance that 2-3 of these guys end up top 15---Here is my take on each: Tim Hightower--Shanny loves him, but not going to hold up for the season and will split with Helu and Royster--early season trade bait maybe... Kevin Smith-- Could be a spot starter if all goes right (or wrong, depending on viewpoint) in Detroit. Frank Gore-- Will be overdrafted by someone in your league based on name value alone. Won't be on any of my teams... Beanie Wells-- A healthy Beanie is a steal. He hasn't stayed healthy, though, so, fools gold... Jonathan Stewart-- The first on this list that I have targeted. Based on talent alone, I will probably take a late round shot at JStew. If Deangelo gets dinged and they start to give Stewart consistent carries, I think he is a top 10 lock---don't give me the Tolbert talk, either...don't see him impacting anything. STewart can catch, can score from close and is tough to bring down. A good scratch-off style pick. Pierre Thomas-- Inconsistent spreading of the carries...not interested barring a pre-season injury to BOTH Ingram and Ivory. Roy Helu-- Could be a PPR spot start, but will likely be taken before I would pull the trigger. For whatever reason, the Rat does not seem to like him much, and I have learned to never trust the Rat... DeAngelo Williams-- Same case in reverse could be made for Williams that I made for Stewart. However, I have more faith in Stewart---to each his own, but no for me on Deangelo. Jahvid Best-- The second guy on this list I will target. Detroit's offense is New Orleans lite---Best has the potential to be huge in the Sproles role for this offense. Even with limited touches, if they make those touches count, Best could be top 15 PPR if he plays a full season. That being the rub---but, I am still targeting him as another scratch-off guy. Michael Bush-- Bush is the perfect pick for the risk averse among us. Probably will get every third series, some goal-line work. But, if you didn't like Barber last season, and recognize that Forte just got paid, I don't see the upside here. Not for me. Mike Tolbert-- Nope. New team, undefined role---not unless the Stewart and Williams go down. Peyton Hillis-- This is a definite maybe. I will wait to see how Charles looks and if the run distribution shakes out in the pre-season, but Hillis provides a nice option for decent weekly points even if he shares with Jamaal. Will go there if the price is right. Rashad Jennings-- Love Jennings in a "snipe the MJD owner" a round early kind of way. But, a healthy MJD means a wasted Jennings pick, so, probably not. Mark Ingram-- If I had to take a N.O. back not named Sproles, this is the guy I would take. I think they give him every chance in the world to succeed this year as the main ball carrier...just not sure if I buy him staying productive and on the field. Felix Jones-- Like the sweet song of the siren, Jones and his "what if" potential will lure some schlub into thinking they got the next Onterrio Smith (S.O.D.)...Instead, they got a walking mangina who the Cowboys will spend all year talking about how they have to get the ball to him. No thanks. Isaiah Pead-- A guy I am going to watch VERY closely in the pre-season. If he shows some glimpses, I really like his potential behind a near-the cliff SJax. Wait and see... C.J. Spiller-- Another guy I will target if the price is right. After struggling to figure out the pro game, things seemed to click for CJ at the end of last season. While he may split early with Fred, he should still see early targets worthy of at least a spot start in PPR---with the potential for alot more if things break his way. LeGarrette Blount-- A big back who doesn't catch passes and will likely share the field with a rookie back...nope. His best case is not best case enough in PPR formats...pass. David Wilson-- Another guy who has the potential for some big things. Explosive offense? Check. A back ahead of him with wheel problems? Check. A skill set that translates into big plays? Check. Wilson will be on many of my teams this fall, barring an extremely ugly pre-season. Daniel Thomas-- If you watched the Dolphins last season, you know that Thomas is a pass. Even if Bush doesn't hold up, don't sleep on Lamar Miller stepping in to take some carries and passing down work. Donald Brown-- Opportunity is there---but the talent may not be. Could do worse than a starting RB with a late pick, but could probably do better than Donald Brown. Stevan Ridley-- Best case is BJGE numbers, making his worthy of a late pick. Worst case is what I lean more towards...an inexplicable week-to-week carry distribution from the Hoodie that makes starting any NE Rb a gamble...this is the type of scenario where you start Ridley to find out that the Hood deactivated him for the 4:00 games...a very likely no for me. Ronnie Hillman-- Need to see some NFL work from him...some pieces in place for potential good, but some pretty sizable hurdles stand in his way...wait and see. Ben Tate- Target Ben Tate. Even if Foster stays healthy, Tate will probably end in the top 25 with the Texans run heavy approach and his overall talent level (which some argue is even greater than that of Foster). If Foster goes down, you have a sure-fire top 5 guy on your roster at bargain basement prices. He will be on many of my teams, and Foster will likely not be on any. Ryan Williams- Guys coming off knee injuries with no career carries scare me a little...call me crazy, but no.

Here we go...The annual "try to be bold enough as to not be obvious, but then end up being so bold that none of this will ever actually happen" post---My contribution: 1. Jay Cutler ends the season as a top 5 QB (4500 and 33) 2. Jaquizz Rodgers is Darren Sproles v. 2.0, ending as a top 10 PPR Rb 3. Golden Tate becomes an every week PPR start by mid-season (80-1050-6) 4. Aaron Hernandez ends the season as the TE to own in New England 5. David Wilson will lead all rookies in rushing yards and will end as a top 15 back

First off, appreciate the time that it took you to go through each team and identify guys that you feel will boom or bust. Overall, some pretty decent thoughts, as I found myself agreeing with alot of the guys you have identified. If I were to pick some nits, I would probably disagree with the entire N.O. assessment, Jonathan Baldwin being the most physically gifted Chiefs receiver, Jacoby Ford and not Denarius Moore, and buying SJax at any price this year. But, small nits---nice effort.

Caveat/soapbox: There are no true sleepers anymore. In this age of instant information, just about everyone can access the fourth string tailback from all 32 teams in about 15 seconds. Instead, the key is to find those undervalued penny stocks and stash them----guys that everyone probably knows about but who are consistently overlooked or lightly regarded. Here are a few PPR picks that I offer as having some potential for outproducing their draft position...these are three guys who will need things to break just right, but who also could reasonably be predicted to end as great draft day values. QB- Kevin Kolb Currently going undrafted in 10 team leagues, Kolb carries a lot of baggage with him and is not for the faint of heart. Being in a competition with John Skelton certainly makes him far from a sure thing. But, he is still just one year removed from receiving a big deal from Arizona and has some pieces that make him intriguing. While I am not sold on his talent, I am sold on the talent around him. Larry Fitz and Michael Floyd on the outside, with Andre Roberts, Early Doucet and Heap running the middle, provide some solid talent who can make plays with the ball in their hands. A healthy running game with Williams and Beanie will open things up for the passing game...25 Tds and 3500+ yards are not out of the question and provide a good value for a guy who could be had for a late round flier. RB- Jacquizz Rodgers I really like the potential for Rodgers to be a poor mans Darren Sproles in PPR leagues this season. A shift to a pass-heavy offensive scheme, the continued word from Atlanta that they are going to scale back Turner's work, and the glimpses that Rodgers showed last season all have me convinced that he is going to be a guy that really breaks out this season. Going currently after guys like Gerhart and Mendenhall, take Jacquizz and watch as he produces like a solid starting ppr Rb. Wr- Danny Amendola If Rodgers is the poor man's Sproles, than Amendola is poised to be the poor man's Welker. He already played that role fairly well in 2010, working as Bradfords top target on everything underneath. After missing mostly all of last season due to injury, look for Amendola to return to his 2010 form and approach 100 receptions. Great value for a guy who can be had in the 14th round...

Wondering what some thoughts are on where the top TEs should be ranked in a WR/TE combined PPR league...My preliminary thoughts are that after Calvin, Larry Fitz, Welker and maybe Roddy, it might make some sense to start thinking about either Graham or Gronk---Where would you slot those two (and others) in the overall ppr receiver rankings where tight ends are grouped in with receivers? Appreciate any insight...

Basically, everything he said ...love what you did taking some real boom or bust guys at receiver to go along with your rock solid Qb/Rb corps...If Britt or DHB (or Young, who could put up real nice numbers opposite Calvin and Wayne, as the primary outside threat for Luck in garbage time losses) can hit, then you should be a lock for a Superbowl run...

The Ridley/Vereen speculation is fun summer talk, but, as has been stated, you can never trust the Hoodie...The straight running game only really becomes integral when the Pats have a substantial lead and are running out the clock, a time when BJGE tallied many of his yards. This offense is built to use quick hitters to Welker and the TEs in place of straight runs. The occasional draw, the run every so often to keep the defense honest, that is what can be expected from the Pats when the game is still in question. This is a passing offense where the backs must be able to protect Tom and catch the occasional safety valve dump off---something that I see Addai and Woodhead being better suited and more trusted to do. Ball security is the key attribute that the hood values late in games, meaning that it will be tough sledding for either of these second year guys to earn the trust of coach right away. I see all four of these backs having decent weeks here and there, making this a team that I will avoid for all things rushing related... I like Ridley better than Vereen, for what it's worth...