fantasymind

He had a running head start on the entire Cowboy defense, as he was held up in the middle of the field and then took off...he started running straight ahead, Ware did a full 360 before chasing him...if by angle, you mean right behind him, then yeah...and, #42 (Henry) caught him as well, and would have had the tackle had Ware not chased him down...Again, I liked the heart, and it was a nice run, but he has clearly lost a step...Ahman, circa 2003, would have been gone...This Ahman may be a decent value pick, but, he no longer has that extra gear...

You must be a Phil Helmuth fan...

Great saying...

If I were a police officer, I would go all "Ray Liotta" and pose as a friendly cop so as to gain your trust...then I would wait until you 240 lb. buddy was knee deep in stealing all of your fantasy resources while you were out <because you were selling your house> and bust him big time...I would then bring the both of you in an alley and tell you to beat the ###### out of him <although, based on the movie, you wouldn't want to>...Then, I'd let Carson Palmer off with a warning, wishing him luck in both the real NFL and as starter of my fantasy squad.

I was mostly speaking in generalities to make the point that Green has lost a step and that most feature backs will outrun any Lb or DL...and, while Green may be in the #30s and Ware may be a "beast who can catch anyone other than Reggie Bush <if he is the guy who wears #25 in N.O., as was stated>, that run reminded me of Corey Dillon running for 50+ yards last season and being caught by everyone on the defense, including the kicking tee... I am also in agreement that he will probably be off the board in the 5th, but I wouldn't spend more than a 6th or 7th on him...

How many teams? I am guessing ten teams...I love your WRs but, your RBs are the reason why going Rb-Wr-Wr-Wr is rough..AP as your #2 is a bit risky...I'd rather have Cadillac or someone of that ilk as your 2 and then AP or another receiver after that...Your Wrs may be able to carry you though....

Hello...I am an overzealous police officer...Mr. Boston...Sir...Could you please wake up? I am asking because I have an agenda and, if you won't comply with this, I will have to begin my overzealousity by asking you to do some ricockulous things like walking a straight line and saying the alphabet. Please comply quickly so that I can go arrest the ten "real" drunks who, while not sleeping at their wheel, are a danger nonetheless...Signed...Fing Jhoke P.S....you are a complete douche.

Let me get this right...You advocated reaching for Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones. You stated a preference for Javon Walker and TJ Housh over the 8-10 other receivers who are currently ranked in the same general area. The four players you named have been taken earlier (somewhere that you saw) than where they were being taken a month ago. You wrote an article. No games have been played to either validate or invalidate your rankings. You may or may not want me to pay you. I think, based on starting a thread that serves to solely hype yourself, that you weren't hugged enough or something, so I implore all readers of the internets who want to pay him(?)...Do it in HUGS!

I like your list and agree with alot of it...Problem is, there are many guys who fit the exact mold of nearly each of your players and can be hand in the same round or later, in some cases. For example: *Branch/Braylon Edwards/Darrell Jackson/Reggie Brown...all #1s, all being taken in the same couple of rounds, each with arguments that can be made for or against picking them over the others. Do you want the guy in a new situation (Branch as Seattle's #1, Jackson as SF #1) or the guy with a year under his belt as his teams go to receiver? *Kitna/Cutler/Leinart/Roethlisberger--Kitna probably has the most explosive offense of these guys, but is also probably the least talented of the bunch. And will likely cost the most to draft. Do you want the career journeyman in the high powered offense or the sexy young stud in a more conservative (but less risky) offense? *Turner/every backup to a first round RB-Turner is no doubt a talent...but LT has never been hurt. And, when taking a backup, opportunity often trumps talent. *Caddy/Ronnie Brown/Edge/Lamont Jordan- All first round busts from last year, each with a chance to bounce back (or not), each with some questions surrounding their offense and/or offensive lines. Some (Brown and Edge) will be drafted about a round or more higher, but all could slide and become decent value picks. Which will be the steal? *AD/Marshawn/Brandon Jackson/Deangelo Williams/Jerious Norwood- Again, APeterson is no doubt talented and is probably the most talented of this group. But, for reasons mostly related to opportunity or potential, any of these players could be argued to be bigger steals, depending on the opportunities that arise. What's my point, you may ask? Nothing, other than to point out that there are MANY possible steals to be had in drafts. Picking the RIGHT ones, however, always proves to be a trickier proposition. Personally, as I said at the beginning, I agree with your list of five...I won't be surprised at all, however, if none of the above players turn out to be the S.O.D this year, and we are instead talking about the 2007 version(s) of Maurice Jones Drew or Marques Colston from last season as this year's biggest steals.

Well, if you average out the fact that the first three guys saw their best days about 5-6 years ago, and the last three won't see their best years until about 5-6 years in the future, I think that means "mabey". I would compare Grossman and Losman while eating a bologna sandwich.

They call him Flipper...

Whether or not I agree or not with your analysis, I give you a lot of credit for thinking for yourself, instead of the usual regurgitation of popular consensus that litters the boards...as seen clearly by the posters who said "Worst rankings ever" and "Is there an opening in this league". These are the guys who show up at the draft and quote ADP when someone drafts a player that "isn't supposed to be picked that high". They also invariably finish in the top half of the league most years, but rarely, if ever, win the championship. That is because most lists that guys like this quote as Bible are "safe" with very little fluctuation from "expert" to "expert", but they also lack creativity and vision when assessing the coming season. What many fail to recognize (and what I applaud the original poster for doing) is that the studs from last year will almost certainly be joined or replaced by the studs of the coming year. Think back to a year ago...LJ and Alexander were both picked before LT in most drafts...that didn't work out too well. Also, Clinton Portis was top five, and Edge, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, and Lamont Jordan were all on most "experts" Top 12 lists. Now, a year later, none of them are consensus top 12, replaced by guys like Gore, Addai, Westbrook, Bush, and Jones-Drew. And, again, the "experts" will get some of them wrong and some other guys will take their place next year. So, what does that mean? Simply to think for yourself and don't get caught up in the "group speak" that appears whenever someone tries to give an independent idea. Swing for the fences, as the original poster said. Personally, I'd much rather finish dead last while swinging for the fences than come in fourth or fifth playing it safe...you might strike out some, but, it is extremely rewarding when you knock one out of the park. For what it's worth, I agree that Bush is due for a big year (though I would like his three ranking better if you played in a PPR), I also will not be taking LJ (even if he falls to 6 in my PPR), and I agree totally with your assessment on the guys who are on the outside of your rankings looking in. Good job and don't let the lemmings deter you from picking the team that YOU believe will win you a title.

In my opinion, skill outweighs luck by a fair margin during the season. I believe preparation for the draft is a big part of this, but it also extends to weekly free agent pickups and trade attempts. I beleive it is more skill than luck for one to be able to recognize a downward trend in a player's production early in the year and move that player before the rest of the league figures out he is in for an off season. And, during a thirteen game season, I believe that luck generally balances itself out. For every heartbreaking loss where the other guy needs luck to beat you, there are games that you win that you probably have no business winning. So, regular season is probably something like 75/25 skill/luck. The playoffs, however, are a completely different scenario, as truly anything can happen in a single elimination format. In this case, I think the odds reverse to 75/25 luck/skill. This is why each year, I play to make the playoffs, with the knowledge that all teams that make it can become champion with a little luck. I am 5 out of 6 in making the playoffs the past six years, with 2 titles, a second, fourth and fifth place finish. My fourth place finish was the only team out of the five that was head and shoulders the best during the regular season, and one of my championship teams just barely made the playoffs, but featured a bunch of guys who got hot the last few weeks (05-Chambers, in particular, lit it up during th playoffs)...proof to me that making the playoffs should be an owners goal with winning the title a three week goal to shoot for once that is accomplished.

My order would be: BUSH- Having him last year in a ppr, his reception total makes him my top choice of these three. While his rushing numbers were poor last season, he really seemed to start to "get it" from about week 10 on. I expect him to still split time with Deuce and lose out on GL carries. However, look at it like this: if he has a six catch game (which he had multiple times last season), that is equivalent to a 1 yd TD, so, I am not too concerned about his short TD total. Also, his big play ability and overall improvement I expect make him my top choice of these four (and, probably in my top 6 in a ppr league). MARONEY- I also had him last year and saw the flashes of brilliance that everyone talks about (especially his torching of Cinncy early in the year). All the pieces seem to be in place for Maroney to have a huge year...he very easily could be the best of this bunch and top 5. That being said, my expectations are a bit tempered, as I want to see for sure how exclusively he is going to be utilized by the coaching staff. Also, I am not sure I would expect many catches, as Kevin Faulk generally fills that role. Finally, durability is a bit of a concern, as he was banged up for much of the end of last season. HENRY- I must admit, I have never been a huge Travis Henry fan. I know he had a couple of big years in Buffalo, but, I just never got on his bandwagon. He is, though, in a great position to succeed this year and could put up first round numbers. My biggest hesitation with him: The Rat. Who knows what Shanny will decide to do with his RB corps; every year, it seems like we know who the guy will be in June and it turns out to be someone else (or worse, three or four other guys sharing time). While it sems like we shouldn't, isn't it possible that we will see a RBBC with Mike Bell? Coglan's Law #74-Never stake your first round fortune on the Rat. MCGAHEE- Baltimore's line is young and inexperienced, strike #1. McGahee looked extremely average last season running for Buffalo, strike #2. He probably won't catch more than 20 balls, so, in comparison with a guy like Bush who could catch about 80 (a difference of 60 points), that means 10 short tds needed just to start off even. Strike 3, your out. In fact, I don't think I'd take Willis until late third or fourth in a ppr league...I know he won't last that long, but, I am not sold on him being anything more than a middle of the road starter. .02

The Aaron Brooks factor...that is a great way to put it...And, I also agree that drafting Qbs and Wrs from poor teams generally results in alot of garbage time yards, catches and a few tds. In my league (ppr), it seemed more like the Jimmy Smith factor, as, invariably, Jax would be losing and the guy who had Jimmy would watch his statline go from 1-12 to 8-92 by the end of the meaningless fourth quarter drives...

Maybe my questioning of 8 teams wasn't clear...It's not that I am curious as to where the 8 teams are coming from, it's that I am not sure why 8 teams should be mentioned if we are discussing avoiding players from lousy teams. If this thread was meant to be a "Predict the worst team in each conference" discussion, then I read it wrong. I thought the topic was about avoiding players from poor teams, at which point I would question why we are naming eight teams to avoid players from; as seen in my initial response, I don't beleive it is wise to avoid any player, regardless of your opinion of their team. At some point in your draft, if a player with ability and opportunity are available for the right price (cheap), I beleive you should pull the trigger regardless if their team is likely to be a bottom feeder. Again, if everyone adhered to that principle, guys like Roy Williams, Galloway, Kevin Jones, and Kellen Winslow would have been free agents.

Did you choose 8 teams for a reason? Is 8 significant to your study? Just curious, seems kinda random... Anyways, I think you can make an argument that at least one fantasy player should be taken from every team, no matter how bad...For example, the Raiders were the sucks last year, but still had Lamont and Randy taken...Hindsight being what it is, neither needed to be taken, but, they both entered the year with enough talent/opportunity to be picked. I would say that, while we can predict that teams like Oakland and Cleveland and Houston will be bottom feeders, they all have at least one player that is worth taking a shot on in your draft. Because, for every Randy and Lamont, there are those Andre Johnson/Frank Gore type excpetions that make the risk of taking a player from a poor team worth the reward.

While I agree that Portis is probably going to go around tenth overall, I don't see how he would be able to be considered the "steal of the draft", quintessentially or otherwise. I see one of two things scenarios for Portis...a)He stays injury free and has a typical Portis year (which puts him as a top 6 Rb, yet not in the elite status. Also, I am talking about Redskin Portis who has been dinged up quite frequently and hasn't put up elite numbers or He gets hurt/loses touches to Betts and barely performs up to his draft position, or, as was the case last year, is a first round bust. The term "steal of the draft", especially regarding any pick made in the first round, would indicate a late pick putting up a #1 overall performance and I just don't see that coming from Clinton. Based on your own projections above, he would be about the sixth to tenth best RB, making him a very average and unspectacular first selection. In fact, I would argue that you'd be much better off rolling the dice on a back like Addai, Maroney or Bush at ten rather than Clinton, as they have not yet shown what their top end performance may be. Just my two cents...

Leave the pickles out of this...unless, of course, they want to order the newsletter!!!

Does that mean the ass-thumping I got this weekend never really happened? NICE!

Owned!

I think you made some very good points here in this post. Anyone who spends the time to draw a parallel between "The Art of War" and fantasy football should be recognized for the level of thought put into preparing for his/her draft. With that said, I think you are articulating what many (most) people on this board probably do anyways; that is, trying to evaluate your competition to best strategize who should be chosen when. In your case, you have taken it to the next level by analyzing past drafts, which obviuosly gives you more information when trying to project who will do what (and when). However, what I have found is that truly savvy owners in my league (myself included) are constantly trying to stay one step ahead of the other owners. For instance, the past three seasons, I (and at least two other owners in my league that I know of) have purposely tried to draft with completely different strategies, with the thought being that other owners would not be able to know what I was going to do and hopefully reach for a player they love a little earlier than they might have had to otherwise. I still try to "guesstimate" what I think other woenrs will do with their picks, but I am very aware that most of the owners switch things up so as not to become TOO predictable. If any of the other owners in your league are busy reading Sun Tzu like you are, they will know to use their past draft patterns to their advantage by making picks completely contrary to the picks they have made in the past. Or, they may just punch you in the face in front of your wife and kids. Good post, though, burrito.