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Yer mom

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Posts posted by Yer mom

  2. Posted

    Adding 7 1st half plays. I must be crazy but oh well:

     

    USC -14 over Arizona

    Notre Dame -1.5 over Michigan State

    West Virginia -14 over East Carolina

    Florida -14.5 over Kentucky

    Iowa -13 over Illinois

    Louisville -7.5 over Kansas State

    Auburn -24 over Buffalo

     

    In most cases these game should sway in favor of the favorites. I am looking for at least 5 early performances on these plays.

     

     

    Staying on 1st half plays, im all over Wisconsin +7.5. If Michigan is going to cover the 14 they do it later in the game, not right out of the gate. This game for Wisconsin is what Notre Dame was for Michigan. They should at least hang in there for a half!

     

    Wisconsin +7.5 1 Benji

  10. Posted

    Amen. NW looks like they can run the ball tonight. Hell, they kept running the same play for 10 yards a pop. We have to take a commanding lead, as quickly as possible, and keep NW throwing. NW will probably keep running the rest of the first half. And the game might still tighten up.

     

    We shall see. After an initial stumble, great start for Nevada. 3 turnovers leading to 17 points.

     

    Sh!t. Sutton keeps putting it on the ground. We could get another fumble this game.

     

    You nailed that my friend, I just wish they didnt make that look so easy :cry:

  12. Posted

    Just simply saying which teams are getting the action, from a number of offshore sports books. And remember, sports books take in far more action than Vegas, since Vegas has limits on amounts wagered.

     

    Over the long haul, most players lose money gambling, and the books turn a profit. This is very important to remember. Wouldn't it make sense to be on the side of sportsbook rather than on the gambler? So it would make sense to bet that way too, over the longhaul. Now, put on your tin foil hat.

     

    I am a suspicious long time gambler; I was a bookie many years ago (I think the statute of limitations ran out on that one), I've seen a lot of shady stuff, I've heard a lot of stuff. In the past, I knew of some games that were fixed in college hoops, ahead of time. One long held theory is that there is 50/50 action on each game, and the lines adjust to balance out the action. That is simply not true, as most games have semi-lopsided or lopsided action going on one team. In a perfect world, the books would get even action, sit back, and collect juice. But it just doesn't happen.

     

    I like seeing who everyone seems to be on. If the line moves, then, fine, makes sense. If the line doesn't budge, or moves against the action, I get suspicious. Are the books trying to attract more action on a team they don't think will cover? Yes, sometimes the books pick their spots, and want lopsided action in a game. I take note of the percentages on high profile games and TV games, as it seems like some weird stuff happens in those games. Shanked extra points, low FG attempts that get blocked, dropped passes, pass interference, ill timed holding penalties in the red zone, I could go on and on. Honestly, I believe that some games are fixed. I try to avoid potential traps as much as I can. And one way to do that is to check out the percentages. I feel better knowing that I am betting on team that is not receiving lopsided action. Because the chance of shenanigans grows in the situation of a heavy public favorite. I've seen it too many times. But if lopsided action is driving the line, like Florida, Oregon St, Utah this week, then no big deal.

     

    The NFL is a tougher nut to crack lately. Used to be, just check the percentages, go against the public on every game, and collect your money. Now, the favorites are covering 60+% of the time, and the public is cleaning up. And I know a lot of local bookies that went out of business, based on the NFL the last two years.

     

    One of the things I use in picking a game is to see where the action is going. And try to figure out what the oddsmaker is thinking, because he is more knowledgable than the betting public. Believe me, I overanalyze a lot of games. But I have done OK over the years. The less profile of a game, with less betting action on it, I tend to not pay as much attention to percentages. The more high profile game, like a USC or a Notre Dame national TV game, I look at the game more closely.

     

    I am simply posting it as information. Ignore it. Use it. No worries. In college, I will at times go with the lopsided action. I pick and choose my spots. My local book tells me all the time, I don't bet like the rest of his players. I am usually on the opposite side of a game. I take a lot of underdogs. And I normally do decently with wagering. Coincidence? To each his own, as we all look at different angles when making a pick. I hope that I don't sound like a know-it-all ass. I am just trying to do research, pick a bunch of games, grind out a small profit, and share some information that might help some others. I feel really bad when I post a game that loses.

     

    That's a lot of rambling. I hope that made some sense. :dunno:

     

     

    Very accurate portrail of general wagering. Keep it coming, Orange County California loves ya Philly, your intentions are good. :banana: THANK YOU AND GOODNIGHT :D

  13. Posted

    Seattle RB Shaun Alexander, missing practice with a sore left foot but positive he will play in Week 3 vs. the Giants, has two theories for his lower numbers compared to 2005 (he is 77 yards behind his two-game total of last year). One is that his team is different -- left guard Steve Hutchinson is in Minnesota, and his replacement, Floyd Womack, is out for perhaps six weeks with a left knee injury. Chris Spencer, drafted in 2005 as a center, is now Plan C there. The other is that defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage even more than they did last season. "They've put more people in the box -- but, you know, I think they should," Alexander said with a smile. "And I think the Giants will also. They'll find a way to put another guy in the box."

     

     

    Actually none of this is true. He slipped and fell in an incident involving a lemon and a weiner dog. Dont you guys watch tv??? ;)

  14. Posted

    Please fill us in...

    What are you tring to say?

    Go in the same direction as the general public - take action on the lopsided games FOR or AGAINST the public?

     

     

    He just provides that as an FYI. He is not persuading you to bet in any direction other than what you like. Generally though, the public gets it wrong, so be weary of really lopsided action!

     

    I wish the public was on Northwestern tonight, I have Nevada ;)

  15. Posted

    Not that anyone cares but I will have my picks up later tonight.

     

     

    Actually Bouve, youve been doing fairly decent lately buddy. :headbanger:

     

     

    After looking at all the angles for tonights game, if it was a Saturday game I wouldnt touch it with Yer moms ten foot pole. But as a degenerate playing with a large backing of the mans money, Nevadas at home and is the better team. Tomorrows not coming quick enough!

     

    Nevada -7 for 2 benjis

  19. Posted

    Im going with Miami and not looking back. Too many close ones to call this week and a Nick Saban coached team will only stay lousy for so long. Collins? Young? The Titans whole organization is confused right now. Its like Oakland last week, when things are bad, their bad. And even an average team if playing at home will most likely find a way to beat you. A heavy dose of Ronnie will give even Culpepper the ability to just chuck it up to Chambers!

  23. Posted

    I hope you're right. With Droughns and Mike Bell fighting injuries, he's my only healthy option this week for my #2 RB.

     

    What a waste of a 3rd round pick. What was I thinking? :mad:

     

     

     

    You like men.

  24. Posted

    I think Notre Dame is the best bet on the board, the best bet I have seen this year so far, and I have been hot! I am loading up on this game, it will make or break my weekend. I understand Philly's argument of a letdown after a big loss, and there is merit to it. However, we have extenuating circumstance here, with MSU planting that flag on ND turf last year. I know ND has not forgotten it. Because of this, I think that the letdown angle will not be there, it will just be the pissed off play out of your ass angle, and this will be a route! Notre Dame by 3 touchdowns.

     

    :lol: :pointstosky: :pointstosky:

     

     

    Wow. Thats some solid confidence there. I dont even care what the total is in this game is im goin over. Michigan State will be ready to play and if nothing else Notre Dame will score alot. The more I think about it the more this may become my strongest play of the week. Im loadin up on the total!! :pointstosky:

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