JScott

I debated two different RBs at the turn. One was Gordon. I like his potential but when push came to shove I think he'll finish very close to other RBs I expect to be available at my 4/5 turn.

I decided between Gordon and Evans at 3.01... but there's more to my 2/3 turn choices. I half expected to take another duo. Will tell the rest of the story once all the players are off the board.

Wasn't expecting Alshon to be available at 2.12. Happy he fell a few spots further than expected. Now that he's the top WR in CHI with the departure of ______ I expect his targets (7th last season) to go up some, his ypc to go back up to what it was in 2013, and increased TDs, putting him squarely back in the top 8-10.

3.01 - WR Mike Evans, TB

2.12 - WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI

Agreed

For Dan via text 2.04 - RB Arian Foster, HOU

Sent Dan a text

Ruh Roh

Lynch had similar receiving numbers too, but had 35 more carries (not touches). The point is how do you feel this separates Lacy from the others that it would make him a "steal". It doesn't. His lower carry totals keeps him right with the rest in that pack in the top tier. If his carries go up to the 280-290 range then I think he'd separate himself.

True but 240 carries, right? Something in that range when others are getting 290ish. Roughly 2+ games less. I'm not knocking him. The offense just limits his touches compared to other RBs that's all. And he averaged 2ppg less than the other RBs last season, except Charles. So given his lack of volume relatively speaking, it's a testament to his performance. If he approaches 290 carries he's the clear cut #1.

Lacy is definitely in the top tier of RBs, but hardly a steal. Think you have the homer glasses dialed in a little bit my friend. This leads into one of the deciding factors for me taking Luck instead of going RB. As mentioned, none in the top tier stand out and all have some question mark for me... AD - Year off, good system, has shown he can do it before BUT the whole off-season drama could carry into the season Lacy - Solid, young, in a great offense BUT that offense limits his touches. It's the volume compared to other top tier RBs that keeps him from standing out. Charles - Focal point of the offense BUT big fall off in TDs and yards last season and KC added a new WR and has an up and coming TE. Forte - Tons of receiving yards, 3-down back BUT his TD totals are relatively lower than other RBs in the tier Bell - 3-down back, very good offense BUT the suspension will be a big dent in his numbers, which keeps him from separating from the others Lynch - Run first offense, good TD numbers BUT his lack of receiving yards holds him back some compared to the others McCoy - Expected focal point in Buffalo BUT new team and offensive system so will he meet expectations There's at least one thing that keeps any of these RBs from separating themselves to be the clear #1. Any of them could lead the league as the top RB and any could finish 7th. So I decided to take who I feel will be the sure fire #1 QB (only #2 threatens him) as opposed to flipping a coin on 7 different/equal RBs.

Valid point. I'll expand on (my opinion) once a few more picks are in the books.

Yes, but Fumble is playing golf so he may only be able to view (hence his name in the online list) until he can get to a spot where he can post (between holes).

Definitely makes for a good discussion if anything. I did the same evaluation looking at the ppg drop compared to the next QB I could reasonably expect to get and this is where we differ. I project Luck to be 5-6ppg over QB#3. And if I didn't take Luck in the first I probably wouldn't go QB until the 4/5 turn, so realistically I'd be looking at the 5th/6th QB. And that would be 6-7ppg. That's a bigger gap than the RB drop I expect if I had taken AP. Yeah, funny isn't it. It's the June Mock Paradox :ahso:

Yep. Must be searching for his tee-shot in the woods

AD is who I was deciding between with Luck.

And as usual with an out-of-the-box early round pick, the next 4-5 rounds will determine how good/bad Luck #1 overall will be.

And 9 times out of 10 I fall right into the same school of thought on grabbing a 2nd tier QB later, just like you. This year is the exception for me. Ideally I would have traded back and looked for him later in the 1st or early 2nd but that wasn't an option. And he would not have made it to my 2/3 turn so decided to pull the trigger with the 1st pick overall. Without trading as an option, if you want a player in a particular round, it really doesn't matter where you take him in that round because all 1st round picks (w/o trading) are equal.

Many Good QBs, yes. Elite QBs, no. And the few Elite's have outscored even the Good one's by 5ppg. I expect Luck to blow up this season.

Tough to fully forget about the No Hassle format but I weighed this pick just considering Redraft.

1.01 - Luck... Each season there's 1 or 2 RBs that stand above the next group of 3-4, and those stand far above the rest (+5ppg). There are 1-2 QBs that stand far above the rest (+5ppg). Predicting which QB will be on top is much easier than which RB. And with the weapons IND has added I think Luck jumps right to the top of the list.

1.01 - QB Andrew Luck, IND

Here. Pick 1.01 coming up...