JScott

Ha. I was thinking Bell/Abdullah at this turn if Bell made it to me. Then when Fumble took Bell, I was still thinking Abdullah for the block... but decided on the uncertainty in CLE rather than that in DET

7.01 - RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE

6.12 - RB Gio Bernard, CIN

I knew J.Bell wouldn't make it past Fumble, but watching him fall got my hopes up. I almost picked him at my last turn. He was the extra RB I was deciding between that I posted about earlier.

Hyde and Gordon were the next two RBs taken after the 2/3 turn so neither has relevant stats to look at. The next vets were Forsett and Morris. Forsett was only +1ppg compared to Ellington, and Morris was +1ppg compared to Jennings. So waiting 2 rounds on RB would have only cost 1ppg by 2014 numbers. Looking the other way waiting on RB from the 1st round to the 3rd round (again comparing Charles and Lacy) taking Forsett and Morris was only -2ppg by 2014 numbers. Compare that to waiting on QB in the 3rd (Luck v. Brees/Manning/Wilson/Roeth) would be a -3ppg to -4ppg.

Agreed

Just one example. And certainly doesn't show a pattern or anything but I think a lot of people feel the same way you do (I certainly did right up until I dug into Luck's numbers) and in some cases it's just accepted but in reality it's not as sure of a thing as we all believed. Now there will certainly be the RB or two each season that top the rest. 2014 Murray for example, compared to Ellington/Jennings was +7ppg. So we'd say, see the drop from the top RB to a 5th/6th round RB is more than that compared to QBs. However, predicting which of the 7 r 8 RBs will be that +7ppg one is a lot harder than predicting which QB will be +5ppg. And that's the main reason I went Luck 1.01. Couldn't really illustrate it until we got to this point and certain QBs/RBs were picked.

Ryan and Cam were -5ppg compared to Luck last season. Ellington was -3ppg compared to Lacy & Charles. Rashad Jennings -4ppg compared.

Also, I vaguely remember something like this last year but he was sailing or something where he wouldn't have access.

That's the thing, while frustrating that he was offline (2:32 CT) just before he went otc, the clock officially stops at 5PM CT so although a lot of us hang around and check in after 5PM, 2.5hrs away from the mock (before the clock stopped) really isn't any violation or anything. Hopefully we'll all sleep on it and feel pretty in the morning.

Last active 1:32PM... otc 1:46PM. ICE picked at 1:36PM. My clock is set to MT. ETA: This is where I post the obligatory "Hope everything's okay" just to cover my @ss incase something really happened

Well, crap. Ray Ray checks out 15min before he goes otc and then we don't see him for 4+ hours. RLLD might have to become RotT

Remote lost power. I'll text him when Ray picks.

You went otc just before you posted this ... lol

Ha ha... he's out of town today

For Robb, via text 5.06 QB Russell Wilson, SEA

Texted Robb that he was otc and gave him the latest picks.

If I wasn't happy with two RBs at the 4/5 turn I was going to make Kelce one of my picks. Like him a lot.

I have Randle in a few of my dynasty leagues and am happy to see how he pans out, but I was nervous that he'd be one of the RBs left for me to pick from at my 4/5 turn. It's risky enough waiting this long but the added risk of not knowing for sure if he's the starter had me worried about taking him but considering he's your 4th RB, well worth the risk for you.

Unfortunate timing... Fumble and I were around when Guru wasn't while he was otc. Fumble went away just before Guru made his 4th round pick. Then I went away just before Fumble made his pick (presumably after getting back from lunch). And now Fumble's gone right before I made my turn picks. It happens.

When I decided to go with Luck #1 overall instead of an RB, I knew the 4th/5th turn would then have to go RB/RB. I expected to get 2 of Yeldon (though a rookie as my #1 really scared me), Stewart, Ellington and 1 other RB. So ended up right where I expected. Yes, Stewart has the injury history but finally showed at the end of 2014 what he's capable of and there's really no one behind him on the depth chart to be utilized for a consistent split of carries. Risky, yes but he's the only RB in this tier with no real competition for carries. Ellington was great to start the season last year. He's healthy again so no reason for him not to pick up where he left off. And with a healthy (for now) QB it should help free up running lanes. So not too bad for waiting until my 4th and 5th picks to grab RBs.

5.01 RB Andre Ellington, ARI

4.12 RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR

Guys - Busy day at work for me so will only be able to check in sporadically. If I'm delaying things, RC and Robb have my cell.

My feeling too. SEA doesn't all of a sudden throw the ball 70% of the time now that they have Graham. Sure he's still the talented receiver he was in SEA, and will create matchup issues but the system won't change over night for him.