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dain11279

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Posts posted by dain11279

  2. Posted

    Bill Curry is the worst announcer in the history of pro sports. Listen to a game on ESPN this weekend and hear him try to announce a game. It's like listening to your 90 year old grandfather who hasnt been able to think for about 40 years try to ramble on about something he has no idea about. Except you can choose not to listen to this guy.

     

     

    Bill Curry?? Actually, his name is Mike Gottfried and he does sound like he is 120 years old. Not sure what happened to him cuz i havent heard him do a game in like 3 weeks. They must have fired him....or he died. 1 of the 2. :dunno:

  5. Posted

    What you just described may to be unique to your book (is it online or an offshore?)

     

    For most online sportsbooks, you get six points on teasers and you don't "lose halves" (so in the above example, the under is 46.5).

     

    Also, a push and a win in a teaser should bump the wager down to a straight wager - it shouldn't lose.

     

    Its an offshore...must be a little different. Damn, i could use that hook sometimes although i rarely play teasers due to the fact that someone a few posts up mentioned that they are a sucker bet.

  6. Posted

    Hey will someone explain to me what a teaser is?

     

    And why i would play one.

    How is it different than a parlay??

    Thanks from one degenrate to another. :banana:

     

    A teaser is when you bet two different props and you can move the line in your favor by 6 points on each one. For example, say last night you wanted to tease minnesota and the under: my book had minnesota at +2 so u would move that to +8 and the under i had at 40.5 so that would be moved to 46(u lose the half point). You have to hit them both to win just like a parlay but if one of them pushes in a teaser you lose the whole bet. You dont have to do it with just one game either. You could tease two different teams in a teaser if u wish. Hope that clears things up.

  8. Posted

    Hey dain, if you told philly that you are a bartender he could come down to our bar and we could buy him a few rounds, we owe him. BTW, I'll be down to drink later buddy.

    Side note: Illinois up 21-3 :dunno:

     

    Good point. Yea, phillybear next time you're in jamestown, ny (im sure that will be soon lmao) stop into jamestown bowling co. and i will buy you one lol. I DO owe you one...lol

  13. Posted

    Where is action is going, based on averages from a number of offshore books...

     

    Cincinnati 83% over Tampa Bay

    Washington 53% over Tennessee

    Dallas 61% over Houston

    Buffalo 60% over Detroit

    Seattle 60% over St Louis

    Atlanta 52% over NY Giants

    Philadelphia 76% over New Orleans

    Carolina 53% over Baltimore

    NY Jets 78% over Miami

    San Diego 78% over San Francisco

    Pittsburgh 58% over Kansas City

    Denver 66% over Oakland

    Chicago 83% over Arizona

     

    A lot of games with close to even action. I like today's card.

     

    Philly, where do you get that info? Is it from sportsinsights, and do you have to pay for it?

  14. Posted

    Overall College YTD: 101-78-4; +43.17 units

    Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 41-25-1; +39.72 units

    CFL: 15-9; +10.75 units

     

    Friday

     

    Middle Tennessee St (+) for 2 units.

     

    Mystifying why this line dropped from 33 to 29, with Louisville getting 83% of the action. Then again, we have had funny line moves the last couple of days, with the line moving for Utah and NC State despite more action on the other sides, and both Utah and NC St covered. I will wait until just before game time, and hope this line rebounds a bit with the betting public pushing it back up.

     

    Key angle:

    -Teams off a SU win as an underdog are 18-6-1 ATS in their next game.

    -Teams off a SU win as an underdog are 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog the next game.

    -This same angle applied to North Carolina St, a momentum angle.

     

    This is the type of game that you bet, genuflect, and hold on for a bumpy ride. An underdog getting a bunch of points against a talented opponent that could beat them by 50 points. There is no real point of an overall stat analysis, since everyone knows that Louisville will win this game to go to 5-0. The question that needs to be answered is can Middle Tenn St hang around in this game. And I certainly think so.

     

    Middle Tenn St gives up 2.9 yards per rush vs teams that average 3.1 ypr.

    Middle Tenn St allows 56.3% pass completions vs teams that average 53.7%

    Middle Tenn St allows 4.4 yards per play vs teams that average 4.4 ypp

     

    Considering that Midd Tenn St has played some BCS conference teams like Maryland and Oklahoma, looks to me like Midd Tenn St has a pretty good defense. When playing teams of their caliber, they have allowed 274 yards to Fla International, 135 to Tennessee Tech, and an unreal 103 yards to North Texas. A shutdown defense, to be sure. They gave up 247 to Maryland, which isn’t bad either. The only blemish is giving up 59 pts to Oklahoma, but Midd Tenn St turned it over 5 times, and Oklahoma was out for blood the game after the refs screwed them in Oregon. Further, the run defense has been excellent, giving up 97, 135, 10, 190, 40. The 190 yards rushing by Oklahoma came on 44 carries, so it’s not like a bad effort. Why this emphasis on the run defense? That is exactly what Louisville will be trying to do all night long. Consider:

    Louisville 55 carries, 32 passes vs Kentucky

    Louisville 43 carries, 35 passes vs Temple

    Louisville 31 carries, 18 passes vs Miami

    Louisville 42 carries, 26 passes vs Kansas St

    When Brohm got hurt in the Miami game, Louisville started going more conservative in their play calling, not willing to risk exposing the back up QB to 3rd and long situations, forcing him to make plays. So if Louisville is going to try to run tonight, they will have a bit of a challenge with the best Sun Belt defensive team. It’s not like Midd Tenn St can’t compete on this level, as they upset Vanderbilt on the road last year.

     

    Can Midd Tenn St score points in this game, as their offense is a weakness, being shut out by Oklahoma and only scoring 10 vs Maryland? Probably, as they had to gain some confidence putting up 35 vs North Texas last week. Also, Louisville has only shut out Temple this year, allowing at least 6 pts in every other game. Also, Louisville has won by margins of 31 over Kentucky, 62 over awful Temple, 24 over Miami, and 18 over Kansas St. And the Kansas St game is a good barometer, as you had a good defensive home dog with an anemic offense, and Louisville only beat them 24-6. We will see lots or rushing, and lots of time melting off the game clock. I think we might see a final score of 30-10 tonight, enough to cover.

     

    I would imagine almost everyone will be on Louisville tonight. Good luck to all. But especially me.

     

    Thx for the insight philly. Looks like i might be grinding the Middle Tennessee St. "whatever the hell their nickname is" tonight lol....

  15. Posted

    Its been a while since i have been on here. Still been betting and doing so so. Phillybear, i see that you have Hawaii for Three units already, with the line locked at 9.5. I was wondering what your reasoning behind this was cause i know that this Nevada team isn't that bad? Just wondering if you could do a write up why you like them so much. Also Im really confused about the UB vs. Ball State line. Ball State isn't that bad of a team from what i have seen, i mean, there not great but not horrible. I just dont understand why the line is only 5?? Is the UB team that good or are they both really that bad that not alot of points will be scored. Would love to hear your opinion.

    :o To all

     

    Big surprise, I'm on Hawaii again. But they've covered every lined game, I've bet them every game, and I'll take them again. Nevada is forcing tons of turnovers lately, 9-1 advantage and winning as a result, since they are not outgaining anyone in yardage. I don't think their luck will hold up. Hawaii is moving the ball for 500 yards on everyone, including good defenses like Hawaii and Boise St. Hawaii is 9-0 ATS as a favorite at home in conference games, Nevada (editted:) 1-8 ATS on road. Nevada has faced a series of teams that can't throw the ball at all this year, but the only team that has a passing game pulse, the shaky Arizona St, put up 347 passing against them. Without going into an depth stat analysis, Nevada is considerably below average defensively, especially in the secondary,and only average offensively. Hawaii is AVERAGING 500 total offense, 400 of it passing. Despite Hawaii being -7 in turnovers this year, they are dominating games offensively. They lost at the goal line at Alabama. They kept screwing up kicking opportunities and turning the ball over vs Boise St, and still were within 7 points at the end, on an awesome home field for Boise St. After the game, Boise players were quoted as saying Hawaii won't lose another game this year. They were impressed. Me, I'm not impressed. I expected this out of Hawaii, as pro scouts are following this team around, with the talent that Hawaii has on both sides of the ball. Hawaii seems to be covering each game by nearly double digits. A 15+ double digit dog that has come close to winning two games outright. And were up 42-0 early in the second half on UNLV at home.

     

    The Ball St /Buffalo game is not a surprise, since Ball St has a terrible defense, giving up 500 yards per game. Buffalo has covered every game this year so far. It's hard to lay points with this defense on the road, as Ball St seems to be more of a back door covering team. Buffalo first home game after three straight on the road. They actually kept it close vs Auburn their last game, as Auburn finally pulled away late. Buffalo is improving, and I would say take Buffalo or nothing. I know that I won't take Ball St this week. I don't know if I will take Buffalo, however.

     

     

     

     

    There's his answer. Get your beard out of your eyes and pay attention, len.

  21. Posted

    Yep. Hawaii, along with Penn St, have made me the most money of any college teams the last two years. I already hit with Hawaii plus the points at Alabama, in a game they should have won, Hawaii 2nd half vs Alabama, and the blow out win over UNLV last week. +9 units on Hawaii so far this year, so I am rolling the dice with them again.

     

    One key is to look at last years game at Hawaii, where Boise St won 44-41. Looking at the game more closely, Hawaii outgained BSU 556-430, Boise St scored on 42-yd int. return, 92-yd. punt return, 69-yd. blocked FG return. That's a lot fluke points. Hawaii scored an apparent game-tying TD with 3:31 to go, but Boise St blocked the extra point attempt and returned it for 2 pts. Hawaii got robbed, but were clearly the better team that day.

     

    Hawaii spend last year rebuilding, playing a lot of freshmen and sophmores, and they are solidly contributing this year. Specifically the defense, which is vastly improved this year. The rank #25 vs the run, which is what Boise St wants to do, to keep the amazing Hawaii offense off the field. Boise St struggled at Wyoming last week, barely winning 17-10, and that included a Boise St INT for a TD. Their offense struggled mightily. Hawaii put up nearly 400 yards of offense on Alabama, then put up over 600 yards of offense on UNLV. And the UNLV game would have gotten much more ugly if not for the Hawaii backups coming in and turning the ball over and blowing scoring chances. The week before, UNLV held Iowa St to only 16 points. The only drawback to Hawaii is turnovers, but most have come by the backups, and with throws up for grabs at the end of halves and the final play of a game. And when you have an offense that throws this much, well, you can relate it to the St Louis Rams and Mike Martz with turnovers. This year, Hawaii has added a running game to the mix, witih a 295 bruiser in the backfield. And they ran for over 200 yards last week. Hawaii is averaging 7.1 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.8. Colt Brennan is ahead of the pace that Timmy Chang set at Hawaii.

     

    While Boise St is dominant at home, covering 20 out of 22 at home when not favored at home by 28 or more points, this is the only reason why I am not making Hawaii a 5 unit play. Believe it or not, I think the wrong team is favored here. Hawaii can win the WAC this year. The linesmakers still haven't adjusted for how well Hawaii is playing right now, as they have covered both of their first two games easily. Boise St still hasn't played anyone decent yet, beating Sac St, Oregon St, and Wyoming. And remember, Wyoming lost to Virginia, the team that was on TV last night, showing how bad they are. Hawaii is flying under the radar, and if they give Boise St a tough game, they will be noticed more. Hawaii is a live dog in a game that figures to be a back and forth shootout.

     

    I was actually just being a smart-a$$ when i said that cuz u ALWAYS take hawaii. Thx for the insight into the game tho.

  22. Posted

    I put in some games early, as the lines are moving rapidly, and I didn't want them to reach bad numbers.

     

    Nevada (-6.5) for 3 units

    Utah (-8.5) for 3 units

    Hawaii (+14.5) for 3 units

    Florida (-26.5) for 2 units

    Oregon St (-25.5) for 2 units

    Michigan St for 2 units (waiting for this to get back to +3)

    South Florida (+4) for 1 unit

     

    I will add a lot more games.

     

    Officially passing on the Thursday night game. Slight lean to under and Virginia.

     

     

    Philly, you're taking Hawaii?? :pointstosky:

  24. Posted

    Even though i am a Buffalo homer, i really like the bills (+9) this weekend. Thats a lot of points to give a team who's first-string offense looked really good in the preseason. Plus, im really not sold on n.e. this year. The Branch thing is a mess and they look less talented then the team that Buffalo almost beat in foxboro last year. If Buffalo's D doesn't give up too many big plays and the offense can move the ball, i can EASILY see this being a close game. 9 points is way too many in the 1st game of the year which is also a division game IMO. I think im circling the wagons already!!!!

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