The Football Guru

12.05 WR Rome Odunze, CHI

I think Herbert is an easy pick here. I get why he has fallen out of QB1 territory, but I think the majority of people forget (or never knew) how good of an athlete he is. I expect Herbert to run more than he ever has and top 400 yards rushing for the first time. Hopefully, he will also become a bigger part of the red zone package and run in a few more this year.

11.08 - QB Justin Herbert, LAC

10.05 - RB Trey Benson, ARI

9.08 - QB Kyler Murray, ARI

8.05 - RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS

You can feel free to change your Brooks pick

Even with Dell still available, Montgomery would have been my pick at 7.08 if he was still available. I was originally going to take Montgomery in the sixth round, but I'm afraid I will have Pitts ranked as a fourth-rounder when I finish my projections.

I had no intention of drafting Dell (nor did I expect him to be available anywhere close to this spot), but I am happy to scoop up all the value I can in these rounds.

7.08 - WR Tank Dell, HOU

6.05 - TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Fair point, especially in a BB format. While I doubt Conner will make it through the season w/o missing a game, I still want his upside in the 12 or so games he plays. If I do my job as a drafter, I should be able to minimize the impact of the games he misses.

I will be heavy on Diontae this year without a doubt. I have seen his ADP at WR40 (???), which is ridiculous. I'm sure he will be a top 20 WR for me when I finish my projections.

I think it is possible, although I tend to believe Conner will be more productive on a PPG basis. I can't afford to part with the one FFT shirt I have and I don't want any more cups

I know there is a good chance that Conner would have made it back to me in the sixth or even seventh, but it wasn't worth the risk for a player I love in the "RB dead zone." Conner was the last RB left who I believe has a chance to be a regular RB1 for the 12 or so games he plays.

5.08 - RB James Conner, ARI

4.05 - WR DeVonta Smith, PHI

We'll see where my projection process takes me, but I expect a reboot of Kupp and Robert Woods from a few years ago.

Agree. It was between Mixon and Achane for me, and I thought it was worth a dice roll to see if Mixon fell a bit longer (b/c I didn't expect Achane to drop any further). I like enough of the mid-range backs in the 4-5 round range to feel good about my choice. I don't think Achane's role increases significantly, but I believe the spike weeks will still be there from time to time. I trust myself to draft well enough to hang around at RB while I let Jefferson and Adams do their things.

I decided I wanted to live a little here. This will probably be the only share of Achane I get this year, but I'll roll the dice on his upside and try to find a more stable option later.

3.08 - RB De'Von Achane, MIA

I don't worry much about the floor Jefferson and Adams will offer, but I would worry about their upside. Nevertheless, Jefferson should be comparable to every other Round 1 receiver and I can only imagine Adams will be every bit as good if not significantly better than most WR2s. With his (Adams) quarterback situation only improving in 2024 (AOC will either get better in Year 2 or Minshew will win the job), I feel good about Adams' chances of being a WR1 again.

2.05 - WR Davante Adams, LV

I think Nix has a decent chance. I am more hesitant to project certain things I did not see as often from quarterbacks than, say, running backs. Sometimes at running back, you are only going to get to see him attempt to pick up a blitz five times in eight games you watch. For quarterbacks, I hate projecting a certain trait because he should have ample opportunity to show it if he is dropping back 400+ times. For example, I struggle to believe Nix is a great - or even good - deep thrower because he attempted less than 100 deep (20+ yard throws) in his two years at Oregon. One thing that really stood about him was how fidgety he got when his first read wasn't available. I guess similar things could have been said about Drew Brees at Purdue, which was one of the first schools to embrace the spread more than 20 years ago. He had his share of layup throws too, although I don't recall Brees throwing behind the line of scrimmage nearly as often as Nix did. I think enough of Payton to believe he will make this work with Nix, but I think his floor is also the lowest of the top six quarterbacks as well.

All true. I believe 2025 is going to be a good RB class, however. I know not everyone who we think should come out will declare, but some of my early research suggests we could see at least five very good options at the position.