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The Football Guru

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  1. The Football Guru

    2025 NFL Draft Profile - WR Emeka Egbuka

    If Godwin is out, I think Egbuka can easily post WR3 numbers. I said earlier this offseason that he will likely be drafted like a WR5 but has WR3 upside. (I was talking PPR, however.) When Godwin is healthy, I imagine we are looking at more of a low-end WR4 type. With that said, I'm not sure a lot of WR4/5s only need one thing to happen to become every-week starters. I think that might be the case with Egbuka, so I would draft him as if he is going to be a WR4.
  2. The Football Guru

    Hunter or Tet (Dynasty)

    Once again, my initial comment was only about the film grade I had for both of them. It is important to remember Nabers had Jayden Daniels as his QB during his breakout season as well. McMillan ... did not. I was probably slightly more impressed with McMillan's film than Harrison's, FWIW. There is also an earlier comment about Harrison's separation skills. It is hard to create separation when a guy who is not world-class fast and known more for his route-running is used to clear out as often as Harrison was last year. Harrison actually had a pretty good season when we consider how he was used. Hopefully, Arizona features him more often on the short and intermediate stuff this year, although that is far from a given.
  3. The Football Guru

    Hunter or Tet (Dynasty)

    I should have been clearer. I wasn't talking about them being similar in terms of play style or talent, but in terms of the quality of their college film (my film score). Nabers >> T-Mac by a decent margin in terms of talent. With that said, being the best of a bad class doesn't mean a guy stinks. It means he is the best of a bad class. Sometimes that can mean the whole class stinks. Sometimes that can mean one or two are actually good prospects and the rest are about average. I think the latter is the case with this year's class. IMO, it is T-Mac and then Hunter (mostly worried about his being able to hold up long-term), then a considerable gap before guys like Egbuka. I think the Evans' comps for McMillan are well-intentioned, but misguided. I understand the Drake London comps, but I think T-Mac is a better prospect than London was. I went with a discount Larry Fitzgerald in terms of what I think he can be if he maxes out. His run-after-catch ability is seriously underrated. (I'm not saying he's Luther Burden in that regard, but it is pretty good for a 6-4, 219-pound receiver. So is his ability to sink his hips and change direction.) His ability to play the ball in the air is special. I also think his ability to separate has been overblown and is less of an issue for a player with his size and wingspan than it would be for Hunter or Egbuka. The concern raised against man coverage was something I discussed in my draft profile, but I also think he invites the physicality because he knows cornerbacks can't match him physically. Additionally, he was awesome against zone, which is what the NFL defenses play about 75% of the time now. My guess (without doing any projections yet) is that McMillan pushes for 120-130 targets as a rookie. If you can get him as your WR3 in redraft or at the 1.04 pick or later in your rookie drafts, I think you will be pleased.
  4. The Football Guru

    Hunter or Tet (Dynasty)

    I thought McMillan's film was as good as any player's I have seen in years, certainly at the receiver position. I think he belongs in the Marvin Harrison Jr./Nabers conversation. Hunter has much work to do to be a technically sound receiver. A part of me hopes I can land both in the one rookie draft where I have 1.02 and 1.04. With that said (and my perspective changes regularly), I am now leaning Hunter over McMillan. If Hunter develops, he could be the OBJ 2.0. No matter how high I think McMillan's ceiling as an individual talent, I don't see his high being as high in Carolina as Hunter's highs could be in Jacksonville.
  5. The Football Guru

    2025 NFL Draft Profile - QB Shedeur Sanders

    I completely agree. I think the way I described him somewhere was a nice drive down the fairway, but not one that gets you on the green off the tee. I think he will be a capable-to-good QB, but I don't think he will put a franchise on his shoulders or make good players look great.
  6. The Football Guru

    Week 17 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    As has become an annual tradition, I use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Dynasty questions are also fair game. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup. I will assume that you are OK with your question(s) being featured in the column(s) unless you say otherwise.
  7. The Football Guru

    Week 17 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    I will get to the questions I skipped in the article sometime tonight.
  8. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    As has become an annual tradition, I use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Dynasty questions are also fair game. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup. I will assume that you are OK with your question(s) being featured in the column(s) unless you say otherwise.
  9. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    Tough call. I believe the loss of Monty and all the injuries on defense helps LaPorta. However ... Given all of the injuries in Miami, I don't think the Jonnu train stops this week.
  10. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    Even in a non-PPR, I think I would go with White over Robinson. Ford is not a consideration for me with DTR at quarterback. Especially since you are looking for a ceiling play, I think White is the right call. At WR ... I'm rooting against Thomas in several leagues, but I'd be a fool to tell you to sit him. I think Thielen is the other play for me at WR. (Meyers is a close second choice.) I like what I'm hearing about Metcalf getting more involved, but this is not a new problem. It has existed for over a month.
  11. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    If this is Robinson vs. Hill, I would have gone with Robinson.
  12. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    TD-only league with the only yardage bonus coming at 100 yards?
  13. The Football Guru

    Week 16 All-Out Blitz (2024) ...

    I ask myself a version of this question almost every week ... and I probably had the best fantasy regular season I've ever had this year.
  14. It's that time of year again, folks!! As you remember from the previous few years, I like to devote my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit or dynasty questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Please be aware with my column dropping on Fridays now, I may not address your waiver questions in the articles. I should be able to do so on the board, however. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.
  15. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    Complete toss-up in my book. With Jaire Alexander out again, I guess I feel better about DK.
  16. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    1. All things considered, I would probably go with Schultz. And I would not like it one bit. 2. I don't know who would need to be dropped to get Downs, but he should be on a roster at the very least. I think I would feel the best about starting him, followed by Moore (especially if Njoku is ruled out).
  17. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    I guess I would be surprised if Pollard sits. However, we have to treat it as a possibility, so ... I would prefer what I believe would be a 15-touch ceiling in a good matchup over what Nabers has to deal with at QB against a defense that is playing better than it was earlier in the season. I think Spears would also have a much better chance at 100 yards than Nabers if Pollard is ruled out.
  18. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    I discussed some of these in a previous question I answered (in the article), so I would keep your RB starters the same and play Taylor over Stevenson. I think the Cardinals had a one-off last week and should enjoy some positive game script this week.
  19. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    Bijan or Brian Robinson?
  20. The Football Guru

    The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season (2024) ...

    Let me get this right: you are currently starting Thomas and Meyers and want to know if you should replace one (or both) of them with Reed, Metcalf or Thielen, correct? I just want to make sure I am understanding this correctly.
  21. The Football Guru

    Pierce v Downs

    Practiced in full all week. Especially now with Pittman questionable, Downs may not have a choice but to play a lot of snaps.
  22. The Football Guru

    Players who hold out

    https://x.com/JoshNorris/status/1836118111096897970
  23. The Football Guru

    Pierce v Downs

    I think Downs is the easy choice between the two. While Pierce has started to show some signs, part of the reason that Richardson is firing deep so often (and Indy isn't passing the ball much) is that he doesn't have a quick separator underneath. Downs was reportedly having the best camp of all of the receivers before getting hurt and the Colts have noted they want to make sure Downs is fully healed before they bring him back. I'm sure that is for a good reason.
  24. The Football Guru

    Doug Orth's Big Boards - 2024 - Version 2.0

  25. The Football Guru

    What rounds are Harrison and Kupp going in your draft?

    Great minds ... drafted Brooks and Hollywood in The Huddle Auction on Tuesday night.
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