The Football Guru

It's that time of year again, folks!! As you remember from the previous few years, I like to devote my final three columns of the season to answering your dynasty questions or start/sit for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Please be aware that my column drops on Fridays, so I may not address your waiver questions in the articles. I should be able to do so on the board, however. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

I have a strong feeling that Detroit might light up the Steelers in the dome. I don't think the Jags have a great secondary, but their defense has played well during the winning streak. I think there is a much better chance Goff gets to 300 and 3 than Nix.

Not sure I will have the time to get around if I wait: I would start Evans. I'm still not at a point where I trust Cousins, who apparently has a grudge against the Bucs and nobody else. Brissett all day at QB. I know there is a path for Love to outperform him, but the garbage time has been good to JB. I think there is a real chance that the game turns into a bit of a shootout.

I'll get the TE part of your question now because Parkinson plays on Thursday. Parkinson is my answer. Waller is tough to bench given the ridiculously good matchup, but I don't want my fantasy fate tied to a rookie quarterback making his first start, especially one I didn't like all that much in the draft process. Johnson probably gets a little bump because Vele is out, but I think it is just as likely that the Saints try to exploit the Jets LBs with their running backs in the passing game (just like the Jags did last week). I think weather might be the only thing that keeps TNF from being a smash spot for Parkinson.

I'll answer that here since you already used your get-one-free token Neal is out. I would pick up Estime ASAP if you can and hope that we get some clarity on him getting the start. If that happens, he would be one of my starters. I want nothing to do with Terry vs. PHI if I can help it, but I'm not sure you can bench him here. Ferguson vs. LAC is Goedert and Kelce also did really well against the Bolts. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me since that should that is something Derwin James takes care of. Stevenson has been fine since his return (at least 77 total yards in his last two plus an equal share of work in the passing game ... he appears to be trusted more in that role than Henderson), but he doesn't have the upside that most of use need at this point. In short, if you can pick up Estime, I would go with him and Ferguson (although I don't feel great about Fergie this week). If you can't get Estime or stash Jawhar Jordan - just in case neither HOU back is ready - then I would go with Ferguson and McLaurin.

I appreciate you taking the initiative of continuing the thread.

I am pretty sure I answered everyone's questions, either here or in the article. Let me know if that is not the case.

CeeDee is good to go. The way I would rank the others: Smith, McConkey, Jefferson ... I don't know how we can have faith in Jefferson right now. I'm sure he'll have a great game again soon, but I'm clueless which one it will be. Dallas' defense is better than Washington's ... about that, I am sure.

Based on strict probability, I would say Stevenson and Neal have a pretty low chance of scoring. Stevenson had two tries from the 1 against the Bengals a couple of weeks ago and was turned away both times. He has only scored in two of 10 games, although he did score twice in the first game against Buffalo. In short, I don't even know if he is the preferred goal-line option at this point. The Saints only have three RB scores all year, so I think that hoping they can get two in two weeks is a long shot. I don't like Sutton as much now as I did before the Bryant rule-out, but I still like his chances of scoring more than the two backs.

I will answer this question as part of someone else's question in my article, but I would roll with Robinson over Wilson. I liked Robinson over Egbuka FWIW. I ended up projecting Jennings for 5-53-0 this week. The stats suggest this will be more of a CMC and Kittle week. If it means anything to you, Jennings is the best bet among the WRs to score IMO.

I'll get to your question in the article, but for the purposes of beating the clock on TNF ... I would start Adams and Egbuka based on my projections, but I admittedly feel very uneasy about it given your other options. As for the RBs, keep tabs on Jacobs' knee issue. If he goes, Barkley-Jacobs-Irving. If he doesn't, Barkley-Irving-Hampton. Again, I'm not feeling much confidence with these selections, but you do have great options

Rest of season (ROS?) or just for Week 15? I assume PPR?

I want you to get this well in advance of the start of the TNF game. I have Egbuka as the fourth-best play and projected for 5-63-1. I would start him.

If hype can be scored in fantasy leagues, make the trade now. Otherwise, sit back and hope that Mahomes doesn't have to play Houston every week.

Of course, Matt. Thank you for your kind words. As much time as I spend on these boards, I don't get a chance to really ponder it until the Version 2 round comes out. I still think Goedert will miss a chunk of time this year, but it should not keep him from being a low-end TE1 when he is on the field.

The reason Goedert was so low initially is that my formula heavily penalizes missed games. Goedert typically misses a few. Nevertheless, I changed his missed games projection from four to two, which should now have him around TE14 or TE15 on most of my boards.

I pretty much agree with Overkill here, at least from a dynasty perspective. In redraft, I think he is more of a borderline WR4/5 type.

If Godwin is out, I think Egbuka can easily post WR3 numbers. I said earlier this offseason that he will likely be drafted like a WR5 but has WR3 upside. (I was talking PPR, however.) When Godwin is healthy, I imagine we are looking at more of a low-end WR4 type. With that said, I'm not sure a lot of WR4/5s only need one thing to happen to become every-week starters. I think that might be the case with Egbuka, so I would draft him as if he is going to be a WR4.

Once again, my initial comment was only about the film grade I had for both of them. It is important to remember Nabers had Jayden Daniels as his QB during his breakout season as well. McMillan ... did not. I was probably slightly more impressed with McMillan's film than Harrison's, FWIW. There is also an earlier comment about Harrison's separation skills. It is hard to create separation when a guy who is not world-class fast and known more for his route-running is used to clear out as often as Harrison was last year. Harrison actually had a pretty good season when we consider how he was used. Hopefully, Arizona features him more often on the short and intermediate stuff this year, although that is far from a given.

I should have been clearer. I wasn't talking about them being similar in terms of play style or talent, but in terms of the quality of their college film (my film score). Nabers >> T-Mac by a decent margin in terms of talent. With that said, being the best of a bad class doesn't mean a guy stinks. It means he is the best of a bad class. Sometimes that can mean the whole class stinks. Sometimes that can mean one or two are actually good prospects and the rest are about average. I think the latter is the case with this year's class. IMO, it is T-Mac and then Hunter (mostly worried about his being able to hold up long-term), then a considerable gap before guys like Egbuka. I think the Evans' comps for McMillan are well-intentioned, but misguided. I understand the Drake London comps, but I think T-Mac is a better prospect than London was. I went with a discount Larry Fitzgerald in terms of what I think he can be if he maxes out. His run-after-catch ability is seriously underrated. (I'm not saying he's Luther Burden in that regard, but it is pretty good for a 6-4, 219-pound receiver. So is his ability to sink his hips and change direction.) His ability to play the ball in the air is special. I also think his ability to separate has been overblown and is less of an issue for a player with his size and wingspan than it would be for Hunter or Egbuka. The concern raised against man coverage was something I discussed in my draft profile, but I also think he invites the physicality because he knows cornerbacks can't match him physically. Additionally, he was awesome against zone, which is what the NFL defenses play about 75% of the time now. My guess (without doing any projections yet) is that McMillan pushes for 120-130 targets as a rookie. If you can get him as your WR3 in redraft or at the 1.04 pick or later in your rookie drafts, I think you will be pleased.

I thought McMillan's film was as good as any player's I have seen in years, certainly at the receiver position. I think he belongs in the Marvin Harrison Jr./Nabers conversation. Hunter has much work to do to be a technically sound receiver. A part of me hopes I can land both in the one rookie draft where I have 1.02 and 1.04. With that said (and my perspective changes regularly), I am now leaning Hunter over McMillan. If Hunter develops, he could be the OBJ 2.0. No matter how high I think McMillan's ceiling as an individual talent, I don't see his high being as high in Carolina as Hunter's highs could be in Jacksonville.

I completely agree. I think the way I described him somewhere was a nice drive down the fairway, but not one that gets you on the green off the tee. I think he will be a capable-to-good QB, but I don't think he will put a franchise on his shoulders or make good players look great.

As has become an annual tradition, I use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Dynasty questions are also fair game. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup. I will assume that you are OK with your question(s) being featured in the column(s) unless you say otherwise.

I will get to the questions I skipped in the article sometime tonight.

As has become an annual tradition, I use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Dynasty questions are also fair game. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup. I will assume that you are OK with your question(s) being featured in the column(s) unless you say otherwise.