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Ace08

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Posts posted by Ace08

  1. Posted

    amazing to see guys like addai and jones there in an experts mock in the mid 5th round. depending on what you think of either of those guys, you could pretty quickly render my whole essay right there moot. :)

     

    I think both of those guys are going to be severely effected by RBBC's. I'm looking at the RB's that have been drafted before him in this draft and I think Addai and Thomas are going exactly where they should go......if you take either you're praying for the rookie in Indy or either of the other 2 guys in NY to get hurt...otherwise I think you're getting minimal return on your investment from both players this year.

     

    I'll go as far as to say there's at least 2 RB's on the board right now that I'd take over either Addai or Thomas without hesitating.

     

    I do like the Chris Wells pick though.....he'll have every opportunity to win that job and will have a passing game that should in theory open up holes (apparently the same holes Hightower failed to find last year?)

  2. Posted

    This is something I felt from the start... hence my WR/QB (or could have been WR/WR) start. Ironically, as we get further into the RBBC era of pro football, I feel the RB position is deep this season and very good value can be had in rounds 3-5

     

    +1000%

     

    I don't regret taking a receiver at #4 at all. Like I said in the other thread the RB-RB thing to start a draft is a thing of the past IMO.

  5. Posted

    So, I decided to take my first "risk" of the draft...and you guys know I'm pretty risk adverse.

     

    Any thought on the rookie? Too soon?

     

    Like him...alot. Nice pick. I was literally torn between him and Pierre Thomas so you made my decision easy. I'm a big fan of Pierre Thomas for this upcoming year as well.

  7. Posted

    I have VJax pegged as a 4th/5th turn kinda receiver...so where he was taken in this draft isn't significantly out of whack. In addition if this was the guy he really wanted there is little doubt in my mind he would have been gone by the next round.

     

    IMO he was clearly the best receiver left on the board. Not a bad pick at all and I buy the logic behind the pick.

  8. Posted

    Hate to sound so cliche but fantasy football as we all knew it for years has changed. The specialization of roles (running back) has really changed the old "stud RB" theory and in my opinion made it virtually obsolete unless you can get really good value or are positioned on one of the ends 1/2 or 11/12.

     

    PPR leagues accentuate these facts even more....for the last 2 years in my real life money drafts I've done the unthinkable...I went WR/WR with my first 2 picks. In both years...I won those leagues. It just seems to me that the "bust factor" on the "consensus" RB's goes up every year. Look back at last year's preseason "consensus" top 10, top 15, or top 20. How many guys performed within 3-4 spots of their ADP?

     

    At this point I'm a big believer in taking 1 RB early and then taking several in the mid to late rounds, all of which have favorable situations and upside. It's an art more than a science but I used this last year to take the likes of Forte, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew's of the world relatively late. Couple that with outstanding early WR's and you've got the receipe for a high scoring consistent team...which in fantasy is all you can ask for since there are so many "luck" factors.

     

    To each their own and there's definitely more than one way to skin a cat...but those are my thoughts on fantasy football for the current year and in the near future. I'm extremely interested to see what the effects of the wilcat formation (assuming it continues to spread like wildfire among teams) adds to the FF world. Are the days of a pure "utility" slot that far off from becoming a mainstream, default lineup option?

  9. Posted

    I didn't know Colston had microfracture surgery...

     

    Given that, it's a mock draft in June. Obviously this is a situation to monitor before our real drafts but for the purposes of this mock I'll work under the assumption Colston starts the year healthy. If the real draft were today, and knowing now that he had microfracture I would have taken Bowe here instead. Either way I would have filled my WR2 slot.

  12. Posted

    Top 5 :wacko:

     

    Absolutely. The Phins are going to have one of the best O-Line in the NFL this year and this is Ronnie's second year removed from the ACL. Everyone freaking out over the Pat White/Wildcat situation doesn't realize how talented RB is. Two years ago, right before the ACL surgery, he was playing at an absolutely beastly level before his season got ended prematurely. Ricky is on the wrong side of 30 and will see his carries diminish this year.

     

    Every year an RB outperforms his ADP....Ronnie is THAT RB this year in my eyes.

  14. Posted

    To me....Barber and Jacobs are virtually the same except for the fact Jacobs has a better O-Line and you don't have to worry about TWO possible handcuffs/time splitters. To each his own...but I wouldn't draft Barber over Jacobs for those 2 points alone. You couple the fact that there's no PPR here and it makes it even more clear in my mind.

     

    Whatever difference Barber puts up in receiving yardage and TD's I think Jacobs will compensate for with rushing yards. I just don't see Barber getting as big a workload as Jacobs is going to get this year. Is Jacobs style going to lead to a short career? Absolutely...but his is a redraft and a 1 year bet...and I love the odds of Jacbos have a huge year THIS year.

  15. Posted

    glad you took jacobs. i have no interest in him. he is like owning leroy hoard. no receiving, not much rushing yards, an injury waiting to happen. too boom or bust each week for me.

     

    Point taken but I'd offer up these 2 nuggets

     

    1) This isn't a PPR league

    2) Ward is gone

     

    #2 is especially important not just because it means some extra opportunities for Jacobs....but in that it also makes handcuffing the position alot easier as well later in the draft for me.

  16. Posted

    I'm not gonna lie...I had 2 RB's targeted here at 2.09 and for a while there I was scared neither would make it back. Getting Brandon Jacobs here, in this format, completely justifies in my mind what I did in the first round. I know many won't agree but I just don't see that wide a gap between a guy like Jacobs and what was taken in the first round (considering this scoring format). On the flip side....Fitzgerald offers a wider gap in potential incremental scoring on what I would have had to have settled for here at receiver.

     

    So far...so good. If this was a real draft I'd be very happy at this point.

  18. Posted

    i think brady is a pretty good bet to end up in the top 5 qbs when you take into account his intense level of dedication and will for performing and the system he plays in. i dont know that he'll be special or stick out, but a top 5 qb is valuable either way. by the middle of the 3rd, you could certainly do much worse. im just not sure hes someone id want to be building my team around, someone who has to perform every week for my team to hit.

     

    those of you that think he's still going to throw 40 TDs this year, you ought to be taking him in the first round then. any 40 TD qb is worth at least that.

     

    Not necessarily...that gets into a whole other discussion of supply/demand and incremental value at other key positions. Also....QB's in general tend to dominate the top 10 overall ff point lists at year end so while the incremental value between QB1 could be a nice gap from QB2, it's very possible QB9 or QB10 still yields a high enough aggregate point total to make it worth passing on if you're strong at the other key positions (RB/WR/TE)

  19. Posted

    Solid thought process JScott.....and solid pick. I obviously don't think Brady will approach those magical numbers he did a couple years back but I do think he'll be the #1 FF QB and approach 40 TD passes. There will definitely be incremental value there at seasons end versus the #2 guy....IMO.

  20. Posted

    Great discussion in the latter part of this thread. I also agree that LT2 and Deangelo are 2 of the biggest enigmas this year...I'd throw Westy in this conversation as well since he's getting a little long in the tooth.

     

    This is why to me there's Forte, Mojo, ADP...and then a whole bunch of guys that all fit the "2nd tier" mold at RB this year. I'm glad I got 4th in this draft cause it's the ultimate worst case scenario for me in real life and I want to see what I can make out of it against 11 other experienced and knowledgeable mockers.

     

    But as for the other RB's taken in round 1....I have reservations with most of them. Chris Johnson does not merit a top 5 pick in a non PPR format IMO. In addition I don't see the Titans being as good or efficient on offense this year cause I simply don't believe in Kerry Collins.

     

    To me...LT2 is done. I saw most of the their games last year cause I had a couple of other players on SD on my fantasy squad but the guy looks like he's lost all of his explosiveness. He's had a pretty extensive workload career to date and he's reaching that age where stud RB's cease to be so. He's another guy I wouldn't touch this year.

     

    Turner and his 370+ carries scares the crap out of me and it's well documented what that # of carries does to your probability of success the following year. Jackson is a stud but he's always hurt and the Rams have the potential to be God-awful again.

     

    Deangelo....tons of talent but J Stewart is also extremely talented and looms like a huge cloud. If it wasn't for Stewart I'd group him with my other 3 "no brainer" 1st round running backs. But alas.....

     

    In real life if I get the 4th pick and Forte, Mojo, and ADP go 1-2-3 I'm trying like hell to swap down the draft order with someone behind me....but if that fails I have zero reservations doing what I did here and taking Fitz.

  21. Posted

    Wow..I can't believe how some of you feel about AJ. I've watched him play since high school so I admit I have a soft spot in my heart for the kid.

     

    I'll be honest I was between AJ and Fitz at #4...that's how closely I have them rated. I forgot where I read the stat but AJ was on of the top 5 most targeted receivers in the red zone last year. I think all of us that have been watching the NFL long enough know TD's can be a flaky stat. Up one year down the next sometimes on sheer luck and good fortune. I'm projecting him to score between 12-13 TD's this year.

     

    On a pure talent basis....I'd argue he's just as good as CJ despite all the man-love for megatron on this board. Apparently I'm in the minority here but that's fine....and he hasn't reached his ceiling yet by a long shot. I fully expect a hall of fame career out of AJ continuing with another great season this year. Sky is the limit with that kid and to get him at 2.04 is just highway robbery in a 12 man draft. The only reason I took Fitz over him is the injury bug that AJ seems to have a slight case of.

     

    I'll remind everyone here of one thing....CJ will have one of the following throwing to him AGAIN this year.

     

    A) The artist formerly known as Culpepper

    :mad: A wet-behind-the-ears rookie.

     

    I'd argue that for all his talent...that is the ultimate "upside" limiter to any fantasy WR. AJ is the clear #2 in my eyes behind Fitz, followed closely by Moss. I have CJ rated 4th...but in all honesty all 4 are great players so in a way we're splitting hairs here.

  22. Posted

    So, how does everyone feel about Slaton this year?

     

    Does he continue to be the man in Houston, or is it a bit scary picking a Texan this early?

     

    I personally am high on him, but I've been seeing him creep up the draftboard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a 1st rounder by true draft time...which seems incredibly risky.

     

    I think you're right on both counts. He most probably will be a "consensus" first round pick by late August and he will be a high risk player.

     

    Personally I like Slaton as an early 2nd round pick this year. Chris Brown will probably get hurting brushing his teeth and there really is no competition on the roster to speak of. He's got a good QB and a great receiver that will keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. Obviously Slaton becomes more valuable in PPR leagues but I still think he'll do well in this format. The scary thing there is that both the QB and WR on that team themselves have been injury risks in recent years...and losing either would most definitely effect him.

  25. Posted

    Clash I'm aware it's not PPR. After the 3 or 4 "consensus" guys who would have been my alternatives have all been taken I'll discuss my rationale further but just off the bat....I wouldn't touch Turner coming off a 370+ carry season in ANY of my leagues this year. I understand he's relatively young but I just don't think you can ignore history on that one stat. Turner would be bucking the trend if he succeeded this year.

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