Yes, you are overthinking. Play Dionte. Gabe certainly *might* do well…but so might Shakir. Dionte looks good in 3 straight games; and he was excellent last week (20+ pts). Gabe = three games of 20+pts, two games of 10-15 pts, and four (f.o.u.r. ; 4; 1-2-3-FOUR) games of 0-5 pts. You are about 30% to get the really nice game from Gabe. 70% chance of either middling or downright awful.