oban14

10 team keeper league Brees Best R.Brown AJ Fitz Marshall Finley

His ADP is in the seventh round, but I got him in the 9th, 10th, and even swiped him in a league where I didn't get Peterson in the 15th. It's well worth the piece of mind - when McKinnie comes back, I will start a Minnesota Vikings RB every week except their bye week. And you're right - there are plenty of decent QBs in the 7th round. There are decent ones in the 18th round. There is just about always a decent RB. In one league, I took LT at 1.1, Fitz and AJ at 2.10 and 3.1, Calvin and Witten at 4.10 and 5.1, as well as Forte, Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart and a bunch of other RBs that were being ignored later. I would have loved to have drafted Brady but I have no interest in taking him in the top 5 picks of the first round when I can get McNabb, Schaub, or Warner much later.

First of all, I make fun of owners who take QBs in the first round (unless it's a start 2 QB league) whether their QB is hurt or not. It's just a dumb move. I have Adrian Peterson in a few leagues. If he got hurt, I'd put in Chester Taylor. That's what handcuffs/backups are for. Brady isn't the safest pick of the draft for a few reasons: 1) He wasn't going to repeat last year's performance. 2) There are plenty of QBs out there capable of throwing for 30 TDs in a year or at least 2-3 in a given week if you play the matchups. 3) You only need to start one QB in most leagues. The NFL starts 32 every week. Yet you often need to start 2-3 RBs (still only in the NFL per week starting) and 2-3 WRs. There is just no reason to take a QB in the first round. The value simply isn't there relative to guys you can get much later or pickup off the WW.

In defense of this guy... 1) It could be a keeper league. 2) In a redraft, you could take Moss/Wayne at the 1/2 turn, Brees/Megatron at the 3/4 turn and Brandon Marshall could be had as late as the 7th round prior to the reduction of his suspension and before his great pre-season showing. His running backs might suck, but it's hardly impossible to have all five of those guys on a team.

I got Fitz/AJ/Calvin as my starters in one league with LT as my main RB. I feel great about them as well.

I'll join if we're doing a draft, and if I can take the 49ers.

Just give up the second to last round draft pick.

You can preorder from Amazon and skip the sales tax - amazon prime members get it the day it's released free of charge.

The look on the guy's face before he buries his head in his hands when they take a tight end over Warren Sapp is priceless.

Thanks for the great work as always, Waldman. Now for the big question... Who here has pick 1.1 in a dynasty/keeper draft and is going to pass on McFadden based on this?

I agree with the second poster. Tough call but Addai is in a better system and should be a top 5 pick this year and the next several years. Grant is probably a second round pick at this point. I'm not crazy about Benson or Williams, so they're a wash. If Foster goes, Williams goes up in value. If Turner is signed by Chicago, Benson tanks in value.

Assuming Turner lands a starting gig that looks remotely decent, keep him. I'd keep Schaub too. I would also keep Grant, Marshall and probably Reggie Wayne. Wayne is now the #1 in Indy and is probably well worth 45 dollars. Marshall should be a steal at 20. Grant would probably fetch at least 30 bucks in the draft so keep him.

Well, you're talking to someone who just traded McGahee and Turner for the first pick in our rookie draft this year, so take my opinion for what you will. I would rank them like this: Ryan Grant (5 years) (will he produce in 2008 like he did in 2007? might be a fluke) Marshawn Lynch (4 years) (a no brainer since he likely will start for several years) Jonathan Stewart (6 years) (likely #2 RB in draft & a sleeper favorite because of the long contract I'd have - lots of upside) Darren McFadden (3 years) (a high-risk/high-reward choice because I could only hold him a few years, but loads of upside and trade potential) Brandon Jacobs (4 years) (faces competition, get injured a lot, can't catch - great yards-per-rush totals though, and big potential if healthy) Largely because of the contracts. I don't think Ryan Grant is a fluke, and I think he'll do well next year. I hope he sucks because I don't own him, but that's just hope. I liked what I saw out of him once he started playing. I think Lynch will give you very solid numbers for all four years. I'm torn on Stewart and McFadden, but will probably draft McFadden. We have no contract restrictions, and if the numbers were the same I'd probably lean towards McFadden for you. Obviously much of that will depend on where they go, so it'll be easier to weigh the decision post NFL draft. The Giants seem to have a deep backfield so I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on Jacobs, particularly as much as he gets banged up.

Any advice appreciated. He originally wanted Ronnie Brown and McGahee, but I negotiated him down to McGahee and Turner. TIA, and yes I strictly use the "little help" board during the season.

I just thought I'd take a moment to thank you all for your input and let you know that I went forward with the trade. I gave up McGahee and Turner for the #1 overall pick in our draft. What ultimately drew me to make the trade was the belief that neither Turner or McGahee will ever be a top 5 back, while McFadden has that chance. I hope I can bump this thread in 9 or 10 months and show off how brilliant I was, but I understand if someone else ends up bumping it and yelling "I told you so!" right at me. Anyway, this will be my team for next year: QB: Brees RB: Ronnie Brown RB: Darren McFadden RB: Reggie Bush WR: Andre Johnson WR: Larry Fitzgerald WR: Marques Colston WR: Roy Williams TE: Antonio Gates D: SD Chargers K: Yet to be determined And an array of backups yet to be determined as well. In any case, I'm happy to have a young, talented team and hope I pick the right rookie when the draft rolls around in August. Thanks again and good luck in all your leagues.

You guys are really clouding me with some doubt. The only reason I would keep VD was because I was considering trading Gates instead of one of these guys. Now I really don't know what to do.

It's a little more complicated than that. First thing to understand about this league is that we have a pretty flukey defensive scoring system, and sacks, DTDs/STTDs are huge. To put this in perspective, the San Diego Defense scored 318 points in our league last year, and they had at least 4 awful games. LaDanian Tomlinson scored 385. In 2005, when the Bears had both a good defense and Hester going crazy, they would often score 40 points in any given week. My point is that having a great defense is like having a great starting running back in our league. Having a very good defense that isn't in the top 3 is a significant drop off, more so than you'll find in most leagues. Adding to the dilemma is that we can keep 9 players each year. I want to keep Brees, Bush, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, McGahee, AJ, Fitzgerald, Colston, Roy Williams, Antonio Gates, the Chargers defense, and Vernon Davis. That means that three of these have to go. If I kept Turner and McGahee, I'd have to drop the Chargers as well as two other players. Roy Williams' value is pretty low right now, and I have been unable to trade him. I like Brees and would prefer to hold onto him. Vernon Davis probably isn't one of the top 90 players out there and will have to get cut whether I make this trade or not. And because we start two RBs and three WRs each week, it makes more sense to keep four WRs than four RBs, even though I wish I could keep four of each. So now it becomes a number game. As I'm drafting 1.9, the Chargers and anyone else I cut would be long gone. Trading two RBs for one (McFadden) lets me keep 9 important players, gives me the first pick out of all the rookies, and effectively buys me one more roster spot. I know I'm overpaying for this draft pick, but because I have 12 players to keep and only 9 keeper slots, I'm willing to do it. Any other trade I'd make would be for a mid round draft choice (the #2 pick holder usually wants a lot more compensation than I'm willing to pay) and I'd still have to move at least one of my backs and probably Roy Williams to get it done. As for the players, I think McGahee is going to have an outstanding year. I've had him since the inception of this league a few years ago, and he's been a decent back. I think Cameron will get the most out of him, and I would rather trade Brown, but this guy is holding fast on McGahee. I've been big on Turner (drafted him in the third round last year because of his impending UFA status) and still own him in another keeper league. That said, he has looked good but not spectacular when I saw him play, and seeing Sproles outplay him makes me feel not so bad about trading him. I still expect him to land somewhere where he is the #1 guy and then time will tell how he does carrying the whole load. A lot can happen with McFadden. My worst nightmare is that he gets drafted by Miami, making both him and Brown worth much less in the short term, but you never know - maybe Jerry Jones will actually trade MB3 and somehow get McFadden. It's a huge unknown at the moment but by the time we have our draft (in late August) I'll know which rookie RBs are in the best situation, which have lit it up in training camp, which are hurt, etc. This isn't an easy call, which is why I'm asking for advice. I hope this post helps clarify things... Thanks to anyone who read the book I just wrote, and for all of your input.

Randy Moss on right now!

Just saw them, pretty boring actually. Nice to see the cold splash of water hit Brady's face when he realized that he'll never be mentioned up there with Joe Montana again. Billichik was his usual lacking in charisma self. I wanted tears, but I guess this will have to do. Congrats again, Giants. Patriots suck!

49ers are still the best dynasty of all time!

I know this sounds pretty slanted, but I can only keep 9 guys, so this might be worth taking. I have Brees, R.Brown, Bush, McGahee, Michael Turner, Fitz, AJ, Roy Williams, Colston, Gates, the San Diego defense (top defenses score a lot in our scoring system) and VD. So I have 11 keepers if you don't count VD. I figure I give up a running back (don't really care which one) and Roy, and I could get the first overall pick in the draft. Now he's asking for Ronnie Brown and McGahee. This would enable me to keep Roy, but I'd only have Bush and Turner to go along with DMAC in the future. Pros: Getting younger, really not all that crazy about McGahee although he's solid, and I also am concerned about the Brown situation in Miami. Hell, DMAC might end up playing there (though I doubt it). I'd have Roy as my top WR backup (we start three) which would be pretty nice. Cons: McGahee has added Cameron next year, he's probably the best of my four running backs at the moment. Ronnie Brown was an absolute beast until he got hurt last year and he was able to do that with basically no one around him. I'm sure the new braintrust in Miami is going to be very into running the ball. I also don't know where DMAC will go... but I definitely want to get a deal done before the hype of the draft kicks in and the guy gets cold feet. I'm kicking myself for passing up a similar opportunity to get Adrian Peterson last year and don't want to make the same mistake twice. Of course, last time I ended up trading up to #1 I wound up with Reggie Bush... Should I just go ahead and take the deal? He also wants a fifth round pick which frankly I don't really care about.

I think you're right. I've been too focused on getting down to 9 players and not focused enough on getting value. I'm willing to overpay slightly for the #1 overall pick because I have too many players, but Brown and McGahee are a bit too much. I asked him for a #1 next year as well, or I'll give him Michael Turner instead of one of them.

I appreciate it. A big reason I'm doing this is that I'm effectively "keeping 10" by getting the first overall pick. If I pick up someone like Addai or Jackson (whose owners probably won't trade them regardless) I'll still have to cut San Diego's defense and/or Roy Williams. Sounds like his offer isn't absurd. I just might pull the trigger. In fairness, I've done a lot of "A little help" posts and found the only way to get responses is to respond to everyone else's. Last time I checked there were exactly two threads over there so I don't think I'd be able to get enough comments even if I responded to everyone over there.

You must be quite the charmer at dinner parties. Your rapier wit has cut me to the core!

The guy I'm trading with is in bad shape at running back, but pretty good shape at WR. (He has TO, Jennings, Colston, Bowe). I'm torn between offering: Evans and Graham or... Roy Williams and Graham I could also consider trading Gates, but that might be tough. Any recommendations?