m_ichen

It really depends on where your 4 picks are going to be. If the picks are early enough so you can get guys like RBs Caddy/Brown/Rudi/Lamont/Tiki and WRs Holt/TO/Fitz. If with the extra picks you get any 2 of these guys, I think it's well worth considering. If the picks land you in position to get lower tier guys, keep LJ.

Gotta take Rudi. He is a horse. He played through a knee injury last year and still broke his own team rushing records. As long as Rudi has two working legs, Chris Perry will only be getting 3rd down duty for his recieving skills. Also Chambers is very very inconsistent (whereas Rudi is one of the most consistent week-to-week performers there are) and there are ?s about CPep too.

KJ and FWP. Those two aren't even debatable IMO. Will really solidify your RBs. 3rd one is up to opinion, but i'd bite on Reggie Brown. Unquestioned #1WR, Eagles management/coaches have nothing but good stuff to say about him, McNabb throwing to him. Yes Please . Plus he has talent and will not be another James Thrash / Todd Pinkston type loser.

I would drop Vinatieri (no kicker is worth a keeper, not even Neil Rackers), Curtis, S.Davis, Green (Only because this is a keeper league and Green really really old, if you think you can pick up a better QB between now and next year, drop Jake), Fred Taylor (not a keeper, he's old, and he's fragile freddy ) Do NOT drop Housh, he is waaaaay too valuable to drop. He played with a bad hand all of last year and still piled up very solid numbers. Trade him or Donald Driver for a better QB. I'm of the idea that for keepers, you KEEP THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS REGARDLESS OF POSITION. You don't really have a solid #1 RB. But between Westy, Jones, Taylor, Foster, you'd think 2 of them would be start-able on any given week. Try to handcuff in your draft by grabbing guys like Benson and DeAngelo Williams and you should be okay.

Keep Chad. Alex Smith is unproven and the SF offense may never develop into anything decent. (Although Vernon Davis could prove me wrong ala Gates, except SF doesn't have any RB fit to hold LT's cup, so probably not) Roy has the talent to become as good as Chad, but until he proves it, they aren't even close.

I concur. Since you are guaranteed Reggie Bush, I'd go ahead and keep Deuce. Under all other circumstances, I'd keep KJ. However, I will say that you should strongly consider packaging Housh/Horn with KJ/Deuce/Ben to try and get a better RB/QB. Housh or Horn would likely make an excellent WR3 or even a good WR2 on somebody's team, and if they're RB/QB heavy, it may be a good deal for both.

I would definitely take the LT side of the deal because: 1) I really do not trust Warrick Dunn (injuries, lack of TDs, injuries, age, injuries, he's less than 200 lbs for an NFL RB, injuries) To me he is an RB3, not an RB2 like many draft him as. 2) You have a solid #1 in Caddy. Oh wait, he's your RB2!!! LT + Caddy yes please. Although this does leave you with a very glaring lack of depth at RB (...although Ron Dayne may suffice...). You can fix it by doing the following very important thing: 3) PICK UP MICHAEL TURNER. If LT ever goes down with an injury, you will thank me, after you laugh in the face of the guy who's conte mplatingwhether or not to start Dunn cause he's out every other week.

I don't think KC's line will last the next 5 years. And unless they replace immediately with some studs, LJ will suffer. Remember when Jamal was unstoppable running behind Ogden and Mulitalo, well now they're older and look what happened to Jamal. And CP hasn't yet been able to match his Denver #s since leaving behind that cut-blocking OLine system. I think people vastly underestimate the effects of a good line. Also, just due to general fantasy value fluctuations. I'd rather have 2 top players than 1. I mean, remember last year, LT was #1 and nobody else was even close. Well that's changed. Same with the days of Ahman being a top 3 RB, etc, etc. I'd rather have my #s coming equally from a bunch of guys than just one.

I don't think LJ is THAT phenomenal of a player. He's big, fairly fast, but I think he's a product of the OLine (deteriorating) and Al Saunder's Offense (gone). Also the Chiefs were giving him 30 carries a game last year, because he was so fresh from getting 8 carries a game for the first half. I don't think they can keep handing it to him 30 times a game, or he'll wear down like any human being would. If he goes and puts up those same insane #s from last year for a FULL year this time, then I stand corrected and will be in full support of LJ, but until then, these are my projections (rough avg over next few years): LJ: 1850 total yards, 18-20 total TDs Jax: 1550 total yards, 13-15 total TDs Marvin: 1000, 10 So, to make up the difference, I'd need a WR that puts out about 700 yards and 5TD + whatever I'd lose from the keeper pick. AND even then, with the same statistical output, I'd rather have it spread over 2 studs than mostly coming from one super-stud for injury and depth purposes. Maybe you think my projections for LJ are a bit low, but with the offensive changes in KC, I don't see the 25 rushing TD seasons anymore. And I don't think you can project LJ's stats from last year out to a full year because, like i said, he was getting 30 touches a game last year, and 30*16 = 480 touches, not gonna happen.

If it is a 6pt per throwing TD league, I would not hesitate to take Peyton anytime after the consensus top 11 RB are gone. (But definitely not before then, Caddy > Peyton). I would take Peyton above the next tier of RB like Westbrook, DD, etc, and I would take Peyton before WR1 guys like Steve Smith, TO, etc. I just see too many question marks for those guys. Can Westbrook, DD stay healthy. And even if they can, I don't see them being much safer or better picks than guys that will often slide to round 3-4 like Jamal, Dillon, McGahee, KJ, JJ, etc. And I see so many great WR value picks like Reggie Brown, Derrick Mason, the ageless Rod Smith, etc, that grabbing just a WR1 in round 3 or 4 would do fine. And really, Peyton is head and shoulders above the rest of the QB crop. You know you'll get spectacular production, and you KNOW he'll stay healthy, which is like +++++++++++ since there are very few players you can say that about. People say to avoid Peyton just cause he might throw off some "draft strategy" (code: breaking the conventional draft formulas), but I think by picking some "less-popular" players who could turn out to be good value picks, the strength from your QB position will more than make up for any deficiencies from drafting your RB or WR a round later. I see drafting him a lot like drafting a Johan Santana in baseball, which I've done the past two years and done very well with. You get a player who is a sure thing and guaranteed to be in the top 2 of his position.

I'm not high on Burleson's prospects either, but he's not the next Peerless Price. First of all, Peerless became a giant bust because he went to Atlanta expected to be a #1 WR, but he clearly didn't have the stuff for it. Not to mention Atlanta's offense was completely different from Buffalo's offense and Vick was a very raw passer. Not exactly good conditions. Burleson however, isn't expected to be #1, and he'll be going to an established West Coast Offense with a QB who knows how to run it in Hasselbeck. So, although Burleson may disappoint a little, I think he'll still put up some solid #s in Seattle as the #2.

I'd take Team 1. The only plus I see for Team 2 is WR3 SMoss >> Stallworth. I guess minor plus WR2 Boldin > Roy. But Peyton (who will never, ever, ever, get injured) >>>> Warner or Bulger. Therefore Team 1.

I'm also high on Eric Moulds. I'd knock those 1200 and 8-12 to about 1000 and 6-8 though. I think he can be a crappier version of Housh, as in a #2 reciever (with some freak athlete #1) who will put up solid, but not spectacular #s. I also think it depends more on the OL keeping Carr upright more than DD's health. Also agree with all the breakout possibilities on Mould's former running mate Lee Evans. He's got freak speed, and if you watch him play, you see that HE CATCHES BALLS WITH HIS HANDS!!! instead of chesting the ball and awkwardly trying to trap it with his arms like the shitty WR of the league. Also, Vernon Davis (4.38 TE speed Alex Smith has to throw to somebody, he will be awesome if he can run a half decent route), Antonio Bryant (great talent, Alex Smith has to throw to somebody), Michael Clayton (bounceback likely IMO), Chris Perry (only relevant if Rudi goes down, but could put up DD type #s with his recieving skills), Koren Robinson (assuming he doesn't get into a barfight or miss the game passed out on his couch), Reggie Brown (Lee Evans like situation, except less talent, better QB), Lav Coles (all he does is get 80 catches a year, maybe he'll find the endzone more), Jon Kitna (2 words: Mike. Martz.), Drew Brees.

I don't think that's a very good idea. What if CP gets hurt? (Which could happen if Joe Gibbs decides to grind his not-so-massive frame in between the tackles 20-25 times a game again like last year.) Then you're left scratching your head as you plug Addai and DeAngelo Williams into your lineup praying they'll get more than 10 carries. Sure a 1st or 2nd round RB can be a bust, but you're forgetting the not-sure-things from last year who came up huge, Lamont, Rudi, Tiki, CP, etc. And a top end WR isn't immune to being a bust either. Ahem, TO, ahem RMoss, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker, etc. I'd feel much better picking up one or even two other solid backs after CP so even if my 1st round pick is out for 4-6 weeks, I have a decent chance to win some of those weeks. However, it is a good idea to take a flyer on these sleepers, like Caddy and Brown worked out great for me last year And if that's the case, and you suddenly find you cant possibly start all your solid RB, you can then trade one to the guy who's cuz his 1st round pick went down and he's starting Ron Dayne as his #1.

Sounds like an interesting league format. Just wondering, has there ever been negative scores. Like say on both teams, the offense stinks it up, and both IDPs get more points than the opposing teams offense, and you end up with like Team A beats Team B by a score of -3 to -9.